Improving European mega-regions towards sustainability

Transcription

1 Improving European mega-regions towards sustainability Department of Sustainability and Satellite Studies Barcelona Institute of Regional and Metropolitan Studies Joan Marull, Elena Domene and Vittorio Galletto IRBC Conference. September 2-22, 211. Metro Vancouver, British Columbia Institut d Estudis Regionals i Metropolitans de Barcelona 1

2 Population (inhabitants) 5,5, 5,, 4,5, 4,, 3,5, 3,, 2,5, 2,, 1,5, 1,, 5, Population Urban development , 5, 45, 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Urban development (ha) Source: ESA/NASA, 211 CO 2 emissions per capita (kg/inhab) < 25 hab/km hab/km hab/km2 1-2 hab/km2 y = x R² =.9923 > 2 hab/km2 GHG emissions (tn CO 2 /day) in relation to residential area and transport mode Train Bus Privat transport 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% Net population density (inhab/km 2 ) Territorial contribution of the population mobility to the NO X emissions (%) in the city of Barcelona 1 % Barcelona Rest of EMT Rest of RMB Barcelona Rest of EMT Rest of second ring Rest of Catalonia Origin and destination EMT Destination EMT Origen EMT Institut d Estudis Regionals i Metropolitans de Barcelona 2

3 Employment growth. Year quarterly rate (1st trimester) Innovation: Patents and utility models. Accumulated years % 5% % 8, -5% 6, 4, 2,, -1% -15% -2, -4, -6, -8, 1T1996 3T1996 1T1997 3T1997 1T1998 3T1998 1T1999 3T1999 1T2 3T2 1T21 3T21 1T22 3T22 1T23 Alemanya Espanya UE 27 OCDE Catalunya 3T23 1T24 3T24 1T25 3T25 1T26 3T26 1T27 3T27 1T28 3T28 1T29 3T29 1T21 1T1997 2T1997 3T1997 4T1997 1T1998 2T1998 3T1998 4T1998 1T1999 2T1999 3T1999 4T1999 1T2 2T2 3T2 4T2 1T21 2T21 3T21 4T21 1T22 2T22 3T22 4T22 1T23 2T23 3T23 4T23 1T24 2T24 3T24 4T24 1T25 2T25 3T25 4T25 1T26 2T26 3T26 4T26 1T27 2T27 3T27 4T27 1T28 2T28 3T28 4T28 1T29 2T29 3T29 4T29 1T21 2T21 3T21 4T21 1T211 3T21 GDP in Germany, Spain, UE- 27, OCDE and Catalonia Models d utilitat (MU) Patents nacionals (PN) Patents internacionals (PI) Barcelona AMB-Barcelona Resta RMB Catalunya Source: OCDE, Idescat Source: OEPM, EPO, PCT, WIPO Housing development (units started) Catalonia exportations, inter-annual variation (%) , 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Barcelona Resta AMB Resta RMB Resta Catalunya 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % -1% -2% -3% -4% Gener/1996 Juny/1996 Novembre/1996 Abril/1997 Setembre/1997 Febrer/1998 Juliol/1998 Desembre/1998 Maig/1999 Octubre/1999 Març/2 Agost/2 Gener/21 Juny/21 Novembre/21 Abril/22 Setembre/22 Febrer/23 Juliol/23 Desembre/23 Maig/24 Octubre/24 Març/25 Agost/25 Gener/26 Juny/26 Novembre/26 Abril/27 Setembre/27 Febrer/28 Juliol/28 Desembre/28 Maig/29 Octubre/29 Març/21 Agost/21 Source: Idescat, AEAT Institut d Estudis Regionals i Metropolitans de Barcelona 3

4 Theoretical Bid Rent Model proposal Network of cities. Barcelona Metropolitan Region. Commuting fluxes. 21 Source: Trullén, 211 Socioeconomic and environmental relationships GDP Test of the Bid Rent Model hypothesis 5, 4,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 R² =.458 Barcelona = l'hospitalet Badalona El Prat de Ll. Sant Cugat Sant Boi Terrassa Sabadell Gavà Mataró Granollers Martorell Sitges Manresa Vilanova i la Geltrú Vilafranca del P. Igualada Vic Manlleu 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, Urban land rent 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, Distance from the centre , 4, 6, 8, 1, Distance from the centre Berga GDP Total disponable household income Barcelona: PIB = ; ICE=1,76 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 27,5 22,5 17,5 12,5 7, ECI ECI Institut d Estudis Regionals i Metropolitans de Barcelona 4

5 Twelve European mega-regions Barcelona-Lyon mega-region in the world context Position Mega-region Population LPR (Millions) ($ Bilions) 1 Delhi-Lahore 121, Shanghai 66, Am-Brus-Twerp 59, Greater Tokyo 55, Bos-Wash 54, Lon-Leed-Chester 5,1 1,2 7 Rom-Mil-Tur 48, Seoul-San 46,1 5 9 Chi-Pitts 46, Mexico City 45, Hong-Zen 44, Rio-Paulo 43, Beijing 43, Osaka-Nagoya 36, Tel Aviv-Amman-Beirut 3, Barce-Lyon 25, Frank-Gart 23, Char-lanta 22, Tor-Buff-Chester 22, Vienna-pest 21, Taipei 21, So-Cal 21, Bangkok 19, Fuku-kyushu 18, So-Flo 15, Paris 14,7 38 Source: Florida, 28 Institut d Estudis Regionals i Metropolitans de Barcelona 5

6 Nightlight satellite imaginary to obtain economic and environmental indicators at mega-regional scale Sum of lights and primary energy consumption PEC (GJ) 12,,, 1,,, 8,,, 6,,, 4,,, 2,,, Lineal regression y = 1537x + 6E+7 R² =.946 China Japan IndiaCanada Russian Federation SL United States PEC (GJ) 12,,, 1,,, 8,,, 6,,, 4,,, 2,,, Lineal regression. 21 y = x - 8E+7 R² =.9299 China Japan Canada Russian Federation United States 2,, 4,, 6,, SL Source: NASA, 29 PEC (GJ) 12,,, 1,,, 8,,, 6,,, 4,,, 2,,, Lineal regression. 29 Japan India Canada China Russian Federation United States y = x - 4E+7 R² =.864 2,, 4,, 6,, SL Institut d Estudis Regionals i Metropolitans de Barcelona 6

7 Evolution of the mega-region Barcelona-Lyon ( ) km inhab. 321 inhab./km GDP MIOEUR MIOEUR/inhab GJ 15 GJ/hab tn CO 2 5,98 tones CO 2 /inhab km inhab. 245 inhab./km GDP MIOEUR MIOEUR/inhab GJ 17 GJ/hab tn CO 2 6,37 tones CO 2 /inhab km inhab. 26 inhab/km GDP MIOEUR MIOEUR/inhab GJ 169 GJ/hab tn CO 2 6,48 tones CO 2 /inhab. Institut d Estudis Regionals i Metropolitans de Barcelona 7

8 Main characteristics of the European mega-regions (29) Mega-region Population km 2 inhab/km 2 Evolution of the twelve European mega-regions ( ) Am-Brus-Twerp Barce-Lyon Berlin Frank-Gart Glas-burgh Lisbon London Madrid Paris Prague Rom-Mil-Tur Vienna-Budapest Total Test of the mega-region economic benefit hypothesis (t-student) GDPGrowth /inhab. ( ) /inhab. (21-27) /inhab. ( ) Inside 1995 (a) 5.43,7 bc 5.439,1 c 1.869,3 bc Inside21 (b) Oustide21 (c) 3.899, , , ,6 8, ,8 Institut d Estudis Regionals i Metropolitans de Barcelona 8

9 Evolution of the European mega-region economic activity (GDP/inhab.) European distribution of economic activity (LRP) 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Am-Brus-Twerp Barce-Lyon Berlin Frank-Gart Glas-burgh Lisbon London Madrid Paris Prague Rom-Mil-Tur Vienna-Budapest Evolution of the European mega-region innovation activity (patents/million inhab.) European distribution of patent activity (number) 45 Am-Brus-Twerp 4 Barce-Lyon 35 Berlin 3 Frank-Gart 25 Glas-burgh Lisbon London Madrid Paris Prague Source: Florida et al, 27 Institut d Estudis Regionals i Metropolitans de Barcelona 9

10 Evolution of the European mega-region energy intensity (GJ/GDP) 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Am-Brus- Twerp Barce-Lyon Berlin Frank-Gart Glas-burgh Lisbon London Madrid Paris Prague Rom-Mil-Tur Evolution of the European mega-region GHG emissions (tn CO 2 /inhab.) Energy consumption, economic activity and urban form PEC (GJ) 16,,, R² =,917 14,,, 12,,, 1,,, 8,,, 6,,, 4,,, 2,,, 5, 1,, 1,5, 2,, GDP ( ) Am-Brus- Twerp Barce-Lyon Berlin Frank-Gart Glas-burgh Lisbon London Madrid Paris Prague Rom-Mil-Tur Vienna- Budapest PEC per capita (GJ/inhab.) 25 R² = Urban density (inhab./km 2 ) Institut d Estudis Regionals i Metropolitans de Barcelona 1

11 Comparative analysis of the ecological connectivity index (ECI) in European megaregions (26) % Barce-Lyon ECI Madrid ECI Landscape efficiency (GDP/ECI) Vienna-Bud y = -5E-5x R² =.1542 Lisbon Prague Rom-Mil-Tur Berlin Barce-Lyon Madrid Am-Brus- Twerp Frank-Gart París GDP per capita % % ECI Paris % Landscapel efficiency Am-Brus-Twerp Barce-Lyon Berlin Frank-Gart Lisbon Madrid Paris Prague Rom-Mil-Tur Vienna- Budapest ECI ECI Institut d Estudis Regionals i Metropolitans de Barcelona 11

12 Primary energy consumption (GJ) in Western Europe (29) Comparative analysis: Barcelona-Lyon vs Paris mega-regions Parameters Paris Barcelona-Lyon Economic GDP per capita in PPP ( / inhab.) Knowledge (patents/million inhab.) Metabolism PEC(GJ / inhab.) GHG emissions (tn CO 2 / inhab.) 5,18 6,48 Environment and land use Population density (inhab./km 2 ) City network efficiency (E g ),315,122 Ecological fragmentation (M eff ) 114,2 3,43 Social Population (Million inhab.) 24,2 29,1 Gini Index Institut d Estudis Regionals i Metropolitans de Barcelona 12

13 High Speed Train (HST) as mega-regional transport mode. Comparative HST railways vs plane (22) Barcelona-Madrid transport corridor (27-29) 5, 45, 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Thousand of travelers per month Barcelona-Madrid 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, GHG emission per month (tn CO 2 /month) Barcelona-Madrid gen-7 mar-7 mai-7 jul-7 set-7 nov-7 gen-8 mar-8 mai-8 jul-8 set-8 nov-8 gen-9 mar-9 mai-9 jul-9 set-9 nov-9 gen-7 mar-7 mai-7 jul-7 set-7 nov-7 gen-8 mar-8 mai-8 jul-8 set-8 nov-8 gen-9 mar-9 mai-9 jul-9 set-9 nov-9 AVE HST Avió Plane AVE HST Avió Plane Total Institut d Estudis Regionals i Metropolitans de Barcelona

14 Conclusions The analysis conducted on mega-regions confirmed that the gradual inclusion of different regions within the European mega-regions provides a significant economic benefit (per capita GDP) compared to other areas not included within these networks of cities. The development of mega-regions, supported by greater energy efficiency and transportation systems, enhance the appearance of significant socio-economic dynamics that, in turn, can cause profound changes in the landscape and accelerate change overall. The results on landscape efficiency encourage to propose solutions to many current conflicts, the environmental priorities that contrasted with economic development. Consequently, in the near future a mega-regional scale approach is needed in the development of economic, social and environmental policy and planning. Joan.Marull@uab.cat Institut d Estudis Regionals i Metropolitans de Barcelona 14