R e p l a c i n g D i e s e l G e n e r a t i o n w i t h R e n e w a b l e S o u r c e s i n N u n a v u t C o m m u n i t i e s : P r e - s e l e c

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1 R e p l a c i n g D i e s e l G e n e r a t i o n w i t h R e n e w a b l e S o u r c e s i n N u n a v u t C o m m u n i t i e s : P r e - s e l e c t i o n a n d P r e - f e a s i b i l i t y S t u d i e s Claudio Canizares Indrajit Das Dept. Electrical & Computer Engineering Waterloo Institute of Sustainable Energy 1

2 Quick Facts 6 Faculties: Applied Health Sciences, Arts, Environmental Studies, Science, Math, Engineering undergraduate students, 4800 graduate students (4500 international), 1100 faculty members, 2184 staff. Largest co-operative education program in the world: 18,500/yr students enrolled 5200 employers Students earned $225M (2014) 2

3 Quick Facts $190 M annual research World s largest centre for education in math & computer sciences (Waterloo and Stanford = largest source of computer science talent recruitment in North America) World s largest concentration of quantum information research Canada s largest Engineering faculty WatCar largest auto research centre in Canada (125 researchers) Waterloo Institute for Nanotechnology (70+ researchers) Water Institute (125 researchers) Waterloo Institute for Sustainable Energy (100+ researchers) Top research university six years in a row (Comprehensive category) Research Infosource 3

4 Quick Facts Canada s largest engineering university Eight departments: Chemical Engineering Civil and Environmental Engineering Electrical and Computer Engineering Management Sciences Mechanical and Mechatronics Engineering Systems Design Engineering School of Architecture Conrad Business and Entrepreneurship 100% co-operative study 6554 Undergraduate Students 700 International Students 1829 Graduate Students 286 Faculty 202 Staff 4

5 About ABOUT WATERLOO Top talent» 90+ world-class faculty working in multidisciplinary teams» Hundreds of graduate students and post-doctoral fellows World-class facilities» State-of-the-art facilities with an impressive range of research and testing equipment A professional team to smooth the way» The WISE team connects you with the right people and opportunities, and assists you at every stage of your project A global outlook» Successful partnerships with multinationals and research organizations, with satellite campus and offices around the world A culture of innovation» Waterloo ranks #1 in MacLean s reputation survey for most innovative university in Canada» 22% of Canadian IT companies have originated in UW incubator programs 5

6 About CULTURE OF INNOVATION WATERLOO Empowering our innovators to freely develop their ideas - and reap the rewards» WatCo ready to assist Canada s #1 Innovative University where entrepreneurism thrives inside/outside the classroom WATERLOO World s Largest Co-op Education Program» 16,000 students earned $187M in 2011/12 6

7 About A FEW OF OUR PARTNERS WATERLOO 7

8 About RESEARCH VALUE CHAIN WATERLOO 8

9 About RESEARCH CLUSTERS WATERLOO Solar Wind Bioenergy Storage Heat Pumps Geothermal Green Buildings Carbon Capture Smart Grid Energy Systems Micro-Grids Sustainable Mobility 9

10 Outline Motivation and objectives Study procedures Input considerations Assumptions Pre-ranking Base-case scenario RE integration: Maximum O&M savings O&M savings vs. RE installation costs Ranking Conclusions 10

11 Motivation and Objectives Climate change poses a threat to the wildlife and environment in the Arctic. There are nearly 50 communities in the Canadian Arctic with most of them using diesel generators to generate electricity: These generate emissions and pose a risk of spills while transporting and storing diesel. Diesel fuel dependency is an economic problem in the North, as governments have to subsidize this costly fuel. There are environmentally friendly, economic, and technically sound sources of energy for Arctic communities that should help reduce diesel fuel dependency. WISE at the University of Waterloo has been involved in a consortium led by WWF-Canada, performing studies on the communities of Nunavut and the Inuvialuit Settlement Region (ISR) of the NWT to integrate Renewable Energy (RE) sources in their grids. This presentation describes the selection process of 5 of the 25 Nunavut communities for feasibility studies; the detailed feasibility studies for the 5 selected communities for eventual deployment of RE sources will be presented following this presentation. 11

12 Study Procedures First, a pre-selection of 13 out of 25 communities in Nunavut was made based on high level size, demand, costs, and renewables data. HOMER was then used to determine the optimal generation plan for each of these pre-selected communities: With and without RE. Varying the energy storage (battery) capacity. Optimal plan was selected based on minimum net present (NP) costs while satisfying HOMER s in-built stability criteria. Stopping criteria for battery capacity increase with RE: Replacement of required new diesel generators with renewables. O&M costs when introducing RE, including equipment costs, being more than the base case O&M costs, i.e., O&M savings becoming negative, or maximum O&M savings. 12

13 Study Procedures Community rankings were based on the following criteria: 1. Replacement of new required diesel generators, considering emergency and stand-by generators, i.e., base-case scenario. 2. Maximum savings on O&M costs (includes fuel). 3. O&M savings equal to RE installation costs. 4. Maximum reduction in CO2 emissions. 5. Maximum RE penetration (as a percentage of total energy). 6. Diesel-free operation. Criteria 1, 2, and 3 are discussed in this presentation. 13

14 Pre-selection 14

15 Input Considerations Capital and O&M costs for both RE and new diesel generators were determined considering the transportation and installation costs for each community. Age of existing diesel generators in number of hours remaining. Monthly energy demand and max/min values of load. Solar insolation data from NASA SSE (Surface meteorology and Solar Energy) or HOMER s own. Wind speed data from climate.weather.gc.ca or HOMER s own. 15

16 Assumptions Operating reserves: 10% of peak load in all the cases. 25% of solar PV capacity, if selected. 50% of wind capacity, if selected. Project life of 25 years. Discount rate of 8%. 10% hourly variation in input load profile (2014 and 2015) implemented by HOMER, resulting in nearly 40% increase in peak load over 25 years (~1.41% annual increase): Constant annual load profile for all years was considered, since HOMER did not allow year by year increase as an input. 16

17 Assumptions Same linear relationship of fuel consumption rate with respect to rated capacity for all existing generators. Wind turbine sizes are m for all communities, except Iqaluit where m is used due to large load. PV panel sets of 100 kw for all communities. Useful life of solar, wind, converter, and battery are 25, 30, 15, and 15 years, respectively. Useful life of diesel generators vary from 72,000 hours to 160,000 hours, depending on the manufacturer. For feasibility studies, several of these assumptions have been revised, considering more detailed available information for the selected communities (e.g. different wind turbine sizes and generator curves). 17

18 Base Case Scenario No RE is considered. Objectives: Determine the timeline to buy/replace a diesel generator based on the input of total energy demand and the corresponding peak load. Determine the NPV of O&M costs (including fuel cost) along with the annual CO 2 emissions using HOMER. Yield the basis for O&M cost and emission savings for RE integration studies. Provides details of available and new required generators and their remaining useful life. Assuming 10% operating reserve on peak load and single contingency of the largest generator. 18

19 Base Case Scenario General observations: The largest requirement of a new generator (as per 2015 peak load) is in the community of Cape Dorset, which is consistent with current situation. Considering 2015 peak load requirements, the communities of Arviat, Clyde River, Igloolik, Iqaluit, Kugaaruk, Qikiqtarjuaq, and Sanikiluaq do not require new diesel generators. Considering load growth (as by the HOMER estimated peak load), all except Clyde River and Qikiqtarjuaq require new generators. All communities, except Pangnirtung, require a new generator during the project lifetime. Pangnirtung is getting a new plant with 6 generators, each 550 kw capacity, with 2 kept as emergency and stand-by. Both maximum energy demand and peak load are for Iqaluit. Annual CO 2 emissions and NPV of O&M costs are maximum for Iqaluit, as expected. Minimum annual CO 2 emissions and NPV of O&M costs are for the community of Qikiqtarjuaq. 19

20 RE Integration General objectives: Determine the optimal RE combination and capacity installations for various battery capacities. Select the optimal RE integration plan along with the battery capacity, based on previously stated criteria. Rank communities in order of preference for RE integration, based on these criteria. 20

21 Max O&M Savings RANK Max. O&M RE & Associated CAPACITIES Savings Community Battery PV Wind Converter RE Penetration CO2 Reduction Installation Costs (NPV) % kwh kw kw kw % % M$ Sanikiluaq 2, Hall Beach 1, Rankin Inlet 7,000 1,300 2,000 2, Iqaluit 21,500 2,000 6,000 5, Baker Lake 3, , Kugaaruk 1, Clyde River 1, Cambridge Bay 4,500 1,200 1,100 1, Arviat 3, , Cape Dorset 3, Igloolik 2,400 1, , Qikiqtarjuaq 1, Pangnirtung 2, ,

22 Max O&M Savings Observations: Sanikiluaq, Hall Beach, and Ranking Inlet are the three (3) most preferred communities for RE integration with more than 27% savings. Iqaluit and Baker Lake follow in the top five (5) with ~25% savings in their corresponding O&M costs. RE integration in Iqaluit is the most expensive case, while Hall Beach is the cheapest, among the top 5. A minimum of 400 kw of solar PV, 400 kw of wind, 500 kw converter, and 1.3 MWh of battery are required for these 5 communities. Iqaluit, of the top 5, requires the maximum capacities of all RE related equipment, which can be attributed to its large ~26 GWh energy demand and more than 9 MW of peak load, as shown in the base scenario. Rankin Inlet, with the second highest energy demand in the base scenario, comes second in terms of RE related capacities (RE plus converter and battery). For the top 4, the O&M savings achieved (in M$) are more than the RE installation costs incurred. 22

23 O&M Savings vs RE Installation Costs Rankings based on (NPV)O&M Installation O&M RE and Associated CAPACITIES RE CO2 O&M Installation Community Savings Costs (NPV) Savings Battery PV Wind Converter Penetration Reduction Savings % Costs of RE (Alphabetical) $ $ % kwh kw kw kw % % (Descend) (Ascend) Arviat 837, , Baker Lake 3,648,351 4,047, , Cambridge Bay 6,198,906 5,879, , Cape Dorset 580, , Clyde River 3,053,834 3,087, Hall Beach 2,429,447 2,374, Hall Beach 8,332,737 7,940, , Igloolik 735, , Iqaluit 36,739,335 37,081, ,500 2,000 1,500 3, Iqaluit 96,285,121 84,714, ,500 2,000 6,000 5, Iqaluit 93,116,687 90,651, , ,500 5, Kugaaruk 6,285,116 6,138, , Kugaaruk 7,471,944 7,572, , Pangnirtung 1,944,607 1,863, Qikiqtarjuaq 1,898,300 1,730, Rankin Inlet 11,197,390 12,392, , Rankin Inlet 33,006,219 32,523, ,000 1,300 2,000 2, Sanikiluaq 11,292,466 11,537, ,

24 O&M Savings vs RE Installation Costs Observations: For descending O&M savings (%): Sanikiluaq, Rankin Inlet, Hall Beach, and Iqaluit take the top five (5) spots with various battery capacities. The increase in battery capacities for Hall Beach and Rankin Inlet yield higher O&M savings, as they haven t reached their corresponding maximum O&M savings point. More than one entry from a particular community indicates that the two quantities in consideration crisscrosses each other as battery capacity varies. The additional ranking is made on the basis of ascending RE installation costs: Ranking almost reverses in comparison with the descending O&M savings. This emphasizes the need for high investments to achieve any substantial improvement over the base case scenario. 24

25 Rankings The Nunavut Communities selected for feasibility studies are: 1. Sanikiluaq 2. Iqaluit 3. Rankin Inlet 4. Baker Lake 5. Arviat 25

26 Conclusions The top four (4) ranked communities in Nunavut remained in the top 5 for all criteria used in this study, indicating that these communities definitely deserve a detailed feasibility study. The results of this pre-feasibility study indicate that substantial reduction in CO 2 emission could be achieved at a lower initial investment cost. At least 36% RE penetration could be potentially achieved in the cases of the top 5 communities in Nunavut, except for Baker Lake, while avoiding the purchase of a new diesel generator. Feasibility studies for the 5 selected Nunavut communities are presented next: These studies are based on detailed low-level data and modeling using the well-known mathematical programming tool GAMS (General Algebraic Modeling System). 26