Global Energy Storage Demand for a 100% Renewable Electricity Supply

Transcription

1 Global Energy Storage Demand for a 100% Renewable Electricity Supply Guido Pleßmann, Matthias Erdmann, Markus Hlusiak and Christian Breyer 8 th International Renewable Energy Storage Conference and Exhibition (IRES) Berlin, November 18, 2013

2 Agenda Introduction & Motivation Energy system Data: Resources, demand & financial parameters Global results Specific sites Conclusions 2

3 Introduction Which questions do we address? How much does a global fully renewable based electricity supply cost? What is the market size for energy storage in such a scenario? Which type of energy storage is optimal (batteries, thermal storage, Power to Gas)? How do we go ahead? In a global dynamical simulation with 1 x1 resolution, we determine cost-optimal regional energy systems for the power sector including 3 types of storage Basis of the simulation is a dynamical model for the electric load (time resolution: 1hour) in 163 countries; the 100% RES system is required to match the load demand each hour of a year The time horizon is 2020, meteorological data for 2005 are used; we consider PV, Wind and CSP as power sources 3

4 Motivation: How much energy is to be stored? Avg: 65 % directly consumed electricity 4 On average, one third of the consumed energy comes from storage The regionally optimal amount of stored energy depends on the type of RE source used In particular tropical regions have lower ratio of immediatly consumed energy supplied by RES

5 Agenda Introduction & Motivation Energy system Data: Resources, demand & financial parameters Global results Specific sites Conclusions 5

6 Behind the surface: The RE system components we consider Major components CCGT/ OCGT Wind energy PV CSP TES Battery Renewable Power Methane (RPM) / Power to gas Heating rod 6

7 Energy system How does the model work? Investment ( green field ) and dispatch Linear optimization problem Economic optimization - objective: Minimal total costs Time horizon: 1 year 7

8 Agenda Introduction & Motivation Energy system Data: Resources, demand & financial parameters Global results Specific sites Conclusions 8

9 Resource data PV, Wind, DNI Data based on NASA SSE 6.0 Modeled to hourly data by DLR PV Year 2005, 1-h resolution 1 x 1 spatial resolved Wind Source: A.-K. Gerlach et al.; PV and Wind Power - Complementary Technologies. In Proc. 26th European PVSEC. Hamburg. DNI 9

10 Electricity demand data Global electricity demand of TWh (2010) Annual electricity demand per pixel (1 x 1 ) in TWh Modeled electricity demand data on national level based on macroeconomic data Calibrated with real demand data scaled to pixels by population density 1 hourly resolution 10

11 Financial and technical assumptions for 2020 Technology Capex Opex fix Opex var Lifetime [a] Efficiency [%] Photovoltaics 900 /kwp 15 /kwp 0 /kwh el 25 - Wind power 1000 /kw el 30 /kw el 0 /kwh el 25 - Battery 250 /kwh el 20 /kwh el 0 /kwh el Gas storage 0.05 /kwh th /kwh th 0 /kwh th 50 - Power-to-Gas 936 /kw el 24 /kw el 0.03 /kw el CCGT 750 /kw el 15 /kw el 0 /kwh el OCGT 380 /kw el 7.6 /kw el 0 /kwh el CSP (solar field) 500 /kw th 10 /kw th 0 /kwh th Thermal storage 28 /kwh th 0.3 /kwh th 0 /kwh th Steam turbine 700 /kw el 14 /kw el 0 /kwh el Heating rod 20 /kw th 0.4 /kw th 0 /kwh th Hot heat burner 100 /kw th 2 /kw th 0 /kwh th Natural gas fuel /kwh th - - WACC: 7%; Capex CSP+8hTES: ~ 3200 /kw el 11

12 Agenda Introduction & Motivation Energy system Data: Resources, demand & financial parameters Global results Specific sites Conclusions 12

13 Global average: Resulting cost optimal system configuration Global capacities of resources 7300 GW PV 6700 GW Wind 3900 GW CSP el Shares of energy supply Global capacities of storages (elec.) 1500 GWh Batteries (375 bn ) GWh th Gas storage (85 bn ) 2360 GW el RPM capacity (2207 bn ) GWh th TES (2060 bn ) Shares of energy supply from storages 21% 46% 33% PV Wind CSP 9400 TWh 6% 27% Battery TWh 6000 TWh 67% TES RPM 13

14 The storage options in detail: Battery, RPM, TES 14

15 Three storage options: Battery, RPM, TES 15

16 Three storage options: Battery, RPM, TES 16

17 Three storage options: Battery, RPM, TES 420 TWh el 1960 TWh el 4800 TWh el Batteries with PV where wind and DNI conditions are bad TES predominantly at locations with good DNI conditions RPM at windy sites, but required at almost all sites Advantage of PtG and TES: decoupled input power, storage capacity and output power 17

18 Steam turbine benefits from dual use High Flh of ST, average 3760 (aggregated on national level) Used in two exclusionary cases when SF supplies heat when energy from storage is needed ST predominantly occurs at sites where CSP plants are suitable but can work with only TES too 18

19 What does a 100% RES supply cost? Levelized Cost of Electricity on national level: Average 142 / MWh Min 80 / MWh Somalia Max 203 / MWh Bosnia-Herzegovina 19

20 What does a 50% RES supply cost? LCOE (average): 142 / MWh (100% RES) 79 / MWh (50% RES) Energy supplied by storages: 35 % (100% RES) 4,1% (50% RES) 20

21 Agenda Introduction & Motivation Energy system Data: Resources, demand & financial parameters Global results Specific sites Conclusions 21

22 Pathway towards 100% RES supply on specific sites (Example: Saudi Arabia) Location: Saudi Arabia, site with very good wind and DNI conditions CSP becomes relevant at 50 % RES when storages are needed 22

23 Pathway towards 100% RES supply on specific sites (Saudi Arabia vs. Laos) Saudi Arabia Laos goes up to 20 GW 100 % 78 / MWh 100 % 190 / MWh 23

24 Agenda Introduction & Motivation Energy system Data: Resources, demand & financial parameters Global results Specific sites Conclusions 24

25 Conslusions For 100% RES based electricity supply there are needed 1500 GWh (Battery), GWh (TES) and 2360 GWel (RPM capacities) TES is more cost competitive than battery storages Variable energy-power ratio of TES is valuable RPM is needed to achieve 100 % RES based energy supply Worst-case scenario with LCOE of /MWh, avg.: 142 /MWh Grid neglected Hydro power neglected Coupling with other sectors (heat, mobility, desalination) will lower cost! Implementing 50% RES is economically highly attractive and should be pushed forward as fast as possible for pure economic reasons 25

26 Thanks for your attention! and in particular to Lotta Gruber for her work on the synthetic demand profiles.