Long term water demand forecasting : issues, méthods and current practices in France and abroad. Vincennes, December 14, 2017
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1 Long term water demand forecasting : issues, méthods and current practices in France and abroad Vincennes, December 14, 2017 jeudi 11 janvier 2018
2 Total consumption (Million m3/ year) Inhabitants (thousands) Introduction Litres / inhab / day > Context Declining unit consumption Decoupling between consumption and demographic growth Forecasting difficulties jeudi 11 janvier 2018 > 2
3 Introduction > Objectives of the seminar Exchange of experience between French actors of the sector (public utilities, consultants, State agencies) Discovery of innovative approches through international case studies and practices in the energy sector Identification of avenues for progress and actions to implement to improve forecasting practices in France > Seminar follow-up Publication in the series: (February 2018) jeudi 11 janvier 2018 > 3
4 Introduction > Participants Basin agencies - Seine Normandie - Rhône Méd, & Corse - Loire Bretagne - Artois Picardie Water companies (private) - SUEZ - VEOLIA - Saur - FP2E Consulting companies - Espelia - Artelia - MyDataBall State agencies - AFB - Ministère de l Ecologie Scientific & technical - ASTEE - IRSTEA, BRGM, CNRS, International - Anglian Water (UK) - ISOE (Germany) - Aquawal (Union Public Operators, Wallony Belgium) Public utilities & county councils Nantes Vendée Eau Niort Syndicat Charente maritime EPTB nappes profondes Gironde Pyrénées Atlantiques Seine et Marne Sedif, Ville de Paris, SIAAP, département Hauts de Seine Haute Garonne Seine et Marne Grenoble
5 Program of the seminar > Three sessions Issues and current practices in France Methods and tools: international examples How to improve forecasting in France? > Different perspectives Public utilities International case studies Scientific experts > Priority to discussion 3 round tables Do not exceed your presentation time jeudi 11 janvier 2018 > 5
6 Roundtable 1 > In which context is long term forecasting an issue (or not)? majeur? Type of decision informed by forecasting investment in infrastructure (new, extension, shutdown), tariff setting, supporting water conservation policy Water utility characteristics: technical and financial capacity? Trends in water demand: increasing, declining, uncertain? Forecasting is an issue Forecasting is NOT an issue jeudi 11 janvier 2018 > 6
7 Roundtable 2 > What potential for innovative forecasting methods and tools in France? Main driving factor Appropriate method Results Strong trend, not vey sensitive to changes in the environment Temporal extrapolation models (projection of past trends) Trend Evolution of the number of users Unit water demand analysis Demographic and economic evolution scenarios Evolution of several factors simultaneously (household size, economic activity, price of water, etc.) Multivariate statistical models water use as a function of explanatory variables Consider changes in population characteristics and economic activity Pricing scenarios Evolution of water use practices and household equipment End-use / Micro-component models (cooking, showers, etc.) Water conservation policy scenarios Urban planning evolutions (type of housing, zones of economic activity, etc.) Land use based models Spatially distributed In relation to urban planning projects jeudi 11 janvier 2018 > 7
8 Roundtable 3 > Barriers to improving demand forecasting? Data. Water consumption observatories, mutualised at national or basin level > Levers for actions Tools. Development standardised tools Know-how Develop standard terms of references, pilot studies, training courses (for public utilities &consulting firms) Raise awareness among local elected officials concerning the cost of forecasting errors Incentives. Make all public subsidies conditional to proper demand forecasting Regulation. Impose that demand forecast & land use plans are integrated jeudi 11 janvier 2018 > 8
9 Merci pour votre participation Thank your for your participation jeudi 11 janvier 2018 > 9
10 Introduction > Participants Nantes métropole Vendée Eau Syndicat Eaux du Vivier (Niort) Syndicat Charente Maritime Hautes Pyrénées Haute Garonne SEDIF, Ville de Paris, SIAAP Seine et Marne Grenoble Métropole EP SCoT Grenoble Agences de l Eau - Seine Normandie - Rhône Méd, & Corse - Loire Bretagne - Artois Picardie Compagnies d eau - SUEZ - VEOLIA - Saur - FP2E Bureau d étude - Espelia - Artelia - MyDataBall Etat - AFB - Ministère de l Ecologie Scientifique et technique - ASTEE - IRSTEA, BRGM, CNRS > 10
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