Global view on perspectives for biodiesel.

Transcription

1 Global view on perspectives for biodiesel. Biodiesel International Conference, FAAP Convention Center, Armando Alvares Penteado Foundation, Sao Paulo - Brazil, 18th November 2011 André Faaij Utrecht University Task Leader IEA Bioenergy Task 40 CLA Bioenergy IPCC - SRREN

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4 Biomass & bioenergy lows according to IEA + other refs (2008) [IPCC- SRREN, 2011]

5 Global Primary Energy Supply, EJ/y 2050 Bioenergy Potentials & Deployment Levels 2008 Global Energy Total 2000 Total Biomass Harvest for Food/Fodder/Fiber as Energy Content 2008 Global Biomass Energy 2050 Global Energy AR4, 2007 Technical Potential 2050 Global Biomass AR4, 2007 Land Use 3 and 5 million km 2 Past Literature Range of Technical Potentials EJ Technical Potential Based on 2008 Model and Literature Assessment Chapter 2 Possible Deployment Levels 2011 IPCC Review* Chapter 10 Modelled Deployment Levels for CO2 Concentration Targets ppm <440 ppm 300 Maximum Percentile 75 th median th Minimum 2050 Projections [IPCC-SRREN, 2011]

6 Global RE supply by source in Annex I (ANI) and Non-Annex I (NAI) countries in 164 long-term scenarios (2030 and 2050). Thick black line = median, Coloured box = 25th-75th percentile, Whiskers = total range across all reviewed scenarios. [IPCC-SRREN, 2011]

7 Global primary energy supply of biomass in 164 long-term scenarios in 2020, 2030 and 2050, grouped by different categories of atmospheric CO2 concentration level in 2100 [IPCC-SRREN, 2011]

8 Range of LCOE for selected commercially available RE technologies compared to recent non-re costs. [IPCC-SRREN, 2011]

9 Cost ranges various current bioenergy systems. [IPCC-SRREN, 2011]

10 Projected production costs estimated for selected developing technologies [IPCC-SRREN, 2011]

11 GHG/MJ of major modern bioenergy chains vs. conventional fossil fuel options Excluding (i)luc effects; these can have strong impacts [IPCC-SRREN, 2011]

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14 Status iluc (an opinion) Diverging outcomes; more sophisticated approaches; from 0.8 to later analyses: 0.3 -> 0.2. More detailed regional studies: depends highly (Fully ) on rate of improvement in agricultural and livestock management. CGE: extrapolates past developments, very sensitive to input data, poor in tackling technological change iluc is a reactive concept while we actually want to be proactive in avoiding it altogether defining iluc factors has received most attention versus very limited focus on mitigation of iluc [Faaij, 2011]

15 Driving forces, dimensions, scales [IPCC-SRREN, 2011]

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17 Land area (Mha) LUC in Indonesia Rest degraded land immature palm oil mature palm oil permanent pastures permanent crops w/o palm oil arable land grassland shrubland and savannah Forest plantation forest cover [Wicke, et al., 2011, Land use policy]

18 Land are (Mha) Land are (Mha) LUC until 2020 Indonesia Business as Usual Provincial 180plans (base) Land area (Mha) Sustainability Past trends (improved) Projection Projection forest cover Forest plantation shrubland and savannah forest grassland cover Forest forest plantation cover Forest plantation agricultural land mature palm oil immature palm oil shrubland degraded and land savannah grassland shrubland and savannah grassland rest [Wicke, et al., 2011 agricultural land mature agricultural palm oil land mature palm oil immature palm oil degraded land immature palm oil degraded land (land use policy)] rest Sustainable Development and rest Innovation Management

19 Base case Natural rain forest Degraded land Peatland forest Peatland grass Claus power plant Average Dutch Modern natural gas Coal Average EU GHG Balances and land conversion issues 3372 g CO2-eq / kwh 1400 GHG emissions (g CO2-eq/kWh CPO) Forested peatland: extremely high emissions Natural rainforest: high emissions Base case - Logged over forest: emissions about half of modern natural gas power Degraded land: CO2 uptake CPO electricity Cases Fossil reference electricity production [Wicke, et al., Biomass & Bioenergy, 2008]

20 Economic performance 2 nd generation biofuels s.t. & l.t.; 3 Euro/GJ feedstock [Hamelinck & Faaij, 2006]

21 An ultimate energ transition machine: flex-fuel IG/synfuel/power +CCS Recycle loop Pre-treatment: - grinding - drying feedstock is poplar wood Gasification: - air or oxygen - pressurised or atmospheric - direct/indirect Gas cleaning: - wet cold or dry hot Gas processing: - reforming - shift - CO 2 removal FT synthesis: - slurry reactor or fixed bed FT liquids Offgas Gas turbine Power Major investments in China. - No oil for transport! - 50 % biomass + CCS = net 0 CO2 emission. About 50% of carbon! [See e.g Meerman et al. RSER, 2011]

22 Non commercial? Yueyang Sinopec-Shell Coal gasification project; (China) Shell gasifier arriving at site September Few dozen licences in China Courtesy of Shell

23 GHG emissions per km [Van Vliet et al, En Conv. & Mngt, 2009]

24 Direct and indirect energy use algue production in open (raceway) ponds [Jonker & Faaij, Submitted for publication, 2011]

25 Cost breakdowns algue based biomass (primary) for Raceway ponds and Horizontal Tubular Systems Total bioenergy production costs [ /GJ] Bio-energy conversion Harvesting Cultivication Total costs after reduction RWP heat RWP f uel RWP elec HTS heat HTS f uel HTS elec [Jonker & Faaij, Submitted for publication, 2011]

26 Current main Shipping Lanes for biomass and biofuels for energy Canada E. Europe & Russia W. Europe USA Japan Ethanol Wood pellets Veg. oils & biodiesel Wood Pellets Brazil Ethanol Palm Oil & Ag Residues Argentina S. Africa Malaysia & Indonesia Australia [IEA Task 40]

27 Global production and trade of the major biomass commodities (2008) Bioethanol Biodiesel Wood pellets Mton in 2008 Global production Global net trade 3.72 (*) 2.92 Approx. 4 Main exporters Brazil US, Argentina, Indonesia Malaysia Main importers USA, Japan, EU EU Canada,USA, Baltic countries, Finland, Russia Belgium, Netherlands, Sweden, Italy (*) An estimated 75% of the traded bioethanol is used as transport fuel. Heinimö & Junginger, Biomass & Bioenergy, 2009

28 Global biodiesel trade streams of minimum 1 PJ in World biodiesel production increased from 1.8 Mton in 2004 to 10.6 Mton in [Lamers et al., RSER, 2011.]

29 Not all energy storage vehicle combinations make sense Vehicle Liquid fuel Hydrogen Batteries SUVs, light trucks Mid-sized Small cars Trucks Busses/vans Planes Ships

30 The IEA on biofuels IEA-ETP, 2008

31 Opposing sketches for the scenario preconditions, technological challenges, and impacts for bioenergy deployment on long term following Typical IPCC SRES. [IPCC-SRREN, 2011]

32 A future vision on global bioenergy markets (2050 ) 250 Mha = 100 EJ = 5% ag land + pasture = 1/3 Brazilie [GIRACT FFF Scenario project; Faaij, 2008]

33 Key conclusions (I) Technical potential of 500 EJ/year by 2050, with large uncertainty around market and policy conditions that affect this potential EJ/year possible deployment levels by Major challenge but would contribute up to 1/3 to the world s primary energy demand in Bioenergy has significant potential to mitigate greenhouse gases if resources are sustainably developed and efficient technologies are applied. For the increased and sustainable use of bioenergy, proper design, implementation and monitoring of sustainability frameworks can minimize negative impacts and maximize benefits with regard to social, economic and environmental issues. [IPCC-SRREN, 2011]

34 Key conclusions (II) The impacts and performance of biomass production and use are region- and site-specific. Key options: E.g. sugarcane ethanol production, waste to-energy systems, efficient cookstoves, biomass-based CHP are competitive Lignocellulosic-based fuels, advanced bioelectricity options, and biorefinery concepts can offer competitive deployment of bioenergy in Bio-CCS can offer negative carbon emissions. Advanced biomaterials promising but less understood. Potential role aquatic biomass (algae) highly uncertain. Rapidly changing policy contexts, recent market activity, increasing support for advanced biorefineries & lignocellulosic biofuel options, and in particular the development of sustainability criteria and frameworks, push bioenergy systems and their deployment in sustainable directions. [IPCC-SRREN, 2011]

35 Thanks for your attention For more information, see: Detailed activities Background information Results Events Subscribe to the newsletter (2x per year). And Sciencedirect/Scopus