Selected Presentation from the INSTAAR Monday Noon Seminar Series.

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1 Selected Presentation from the INSTAAR Monday Noon Seminar Series. Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado at Boulder. This seminar presentation has been posted to the internet to foster communication with the science community and the public. Most of the INSTAAR presentations were originally given in PowerPoint format; they were converted to Adobe PDF for posting. You may need to install the free Adobe Acrobat Reader to view these files. These presentations are "works in progress". They are not peer reviewed. They should not be referenced for any kind of publication. Contact the author for proper references and additional information before any use, even for unpublished works such as your own presentations. LICENSING AGREEMENT. Free use of these presentations is limited to a nonprofit educational or private non-commercial context and requires that you contact the author, give credit to the author, and display the copyright notice. All rights to reproduce these presentations are retained by the copyright owner. Images remain the property of the copyright holder. By accessing these presentations, you are consenting to our licensing agreement. 13 Oct Jill Baron, Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory (NREL), Colorado State University. " Land use change and nitrogen emissions along the Colorado Front Range." Seminar given at INSTAAR, University of Colorado. Copyright 2003 Jill Baron. All Rights Reserved. Baron presentation (2.5 Mb PDF)..

2 Selected Presentation from the INSTAAR Monday Noon Seminar Series. Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado at Boulder Oct Jill Baron, Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory (NREL), Colorado State University. " Land use change and nitrogen emissions along the Colorado Front Range." Seminar given at INSTAAR, University of Colorado. Copyright 2003 Jill Baron. All Rights Reserved. Baron presentation (2.5 Mb PDF). Abstract The Colorado Front Range, home to 68% of Colorado's residents, is a region that has experienced rapid population growth and land use change over the past several decades. Coincident land conversion from agricultural and non-federal forest lands has resulted in the growth of urban, suburban, and exurban land area. In addition to urban sprawl, there have been large changes in agricultural practices and land use in this region. Among the consequences of human population growth and agricultural intensification is an increase in reactive nitrogen (N). Food and energy production, and transportation byproducts produce reactive nitrogen species, NOx and NH3. Increased atmospheric deposition of NOy and NHx can lead to enrichment and acidification of terrestrial and aquatic communities, and adverse effects on human health. Atmospheric N deposition to high mountain ecosystems along the Colorado Front Range has affected both aquatic algal communities and increased soil N cycling. We trace here the history of land use in a rapidly changing region and describe how these alter NOx and NH3 emissions.

3 Land Use Change and Nitrogen Emissions in the Colorado Front Range Jill Baron, USGS, Dennis Ojima, Steve Del Grosso, David Theobald, and Bill Parton Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory Colorado State University

6 TOTAL NITROGEN (kg/ha) at NADP SITES Western States NADP Sites TOTAL NITROGEN (KG/HA)

7 Against Prevailing Winds Conversion to NO 3 and NH 4 NOx NH 3 Fertilizers

8 N deposition to Front Range ecosystems is high enough to induce ecological and biogeochemical change We asked: 1. What are the sources of NO x and NH 3? 2. How have emissions changed with changes in land use and population along the Colorado Front Range?

John Wesley Powell 1867 (as reported in debuys 2001) 89% AG USE

9 in a very few decades all the waters of the arid region of the United States would be used for irrigation purposes. John Wesley Powell 1867 (as reported in debuys 2001) 89% AG USE Irrigation in South Platte Basin increased ET by 30%, sufficient to change the regional climate

10 Nitrogen emissions are largely driven by availability of water in the Front Range Trends in source of nitrogen emissions for 10 counties of the South Platte River Basin.

11 Two Major Water Trends Agricultural land use change Acres (thousands) Grazing Cropland Rangeland Conversion to Urban/Suburban Lands Transfers from Agricultural to Municipal 100 Percent of Available Water Rights Agricultural Municipal Slow but Increasing Sales of Ag Water to Municipal Supplies CBT water, Northern Colorado Water Conservancy District

12 Methods Data Sources: NOx emissions from point, area, and mobile sources, by county: EPA AirsData NOx and NH 3 emissions from agricultural and rangeland: DAYCENT model output CAFO NH 3 emissions: CASS and Bouwman et al. 1997

13 Land Use in % 14% 27% 53% 3%

14 0.5 Front Range Agricultural NOx Emissions g N m -2 yr -2 gn m -2 yr GRAZE FALLOW IRRIGATED ALFALFA IRRIGATED CORN 0.1 WHEAT ag ha * Front Range Area by Agricultural Crop wheat+fallow irri alfalfa irri corn graze

15 Rangeland Produces Most of the Agricultural NOx Front Range NOx Emissions, by Crop crop MgN yr GRAZE FALLOW IRRIGATED ALFALFA IRRIGATED CORN WHEAT gn m -2 yr Front Range Agricultural NOx Emissions g N m -2 yr ag ha * Front Range Area by Agricultural Crop wheat+fallow 4 irri alfalfa irri corn 3 graze

700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 1985 1995 Head of Cattle by County 200,000 180,000 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000

16 700, , , , , , , Head of Cattle by County 200, , , , , ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 ADAMS ARAPAHOE BOULDER DENVER Hogs by County DOUGLAS ELBERT JEFFERSON LARIMER LOGAN MORGAN WASHINGTON WELD

2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1985 1995 Poultry by County 1,000,000 500,000 0 300,000 250,000 200,000 1985 Sheep by

17 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500, Poultry by County 1,000, , , , , Sheep by county 150, ,000 50,000 0 ADAMS ARAPAHOE 1995 BOULDER DENVER DOUGLAS ELBERT JEFFERSON LARIMER LOGAN MORGAN WASHINGTON WELD

18 Colorado s Population Increased by 30% South Platte Basin Total Population number of people x

20 Ranch, farm, and forest conversion, or exurbanization, is occurring faster than urban growth in many counties Affects wildlife, habitat, fire frequency, water use, and air quality.

21 1960

22 1990

23 2020

24 2050

25 Housing density 2000 WELD LOGAN ADAMS JEFFERSON DENVER

26 Total Population Change by County number of people x ADAMS ARAPAHOE BOULDER DENVER DOUGLAS ELBERT JEFFERSON LARIMER LOGAN MORGAN WASHINGTON WELD

27 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 Total N emissions by County, Mg ,000 4,000 2,000 0 Adams Co Arapahoe Co Boulder Co Denver Co Douglas Co Elbert Co Jefferson Co Larimer Co Logan Co Morgan Co Washington Co Weld Co

28 Denver County Emissions URBAN Ag Crop and Range Nox Ag Crop and Range NH 3 0 NOx Point NOx Highway NOx Off Road Sim Ag NOx Sim Ag NH3 Total Livestock Confined Livestock NOx Point Highway Vehicles Construction NOx Point LOGAN COUNTY EMISSIONS AGRICULTURAL NOx Highway NOx Off Road Sim Ag NOx Sim Ag NH3 Total Livestock

29 Weld County N Emissions AGRICULTURAL Agricult.: 5458 Mg N/yr NOx Point NOx Highway NOx Off Road Sim Ag NOx Sim Ag NH3 Total Livestock Commuter: 5470 Mg N/yr Industrial: 7420 Mg N/yr Jefferson County Emissions Adams County Emissions NOx Point URBAN/EXURBAN NOx Highway NOx Off Road Sim Ag NOx Sim Ag NH Total Livestock NOx Point INDUSTRIAL NOx Highway NOx Off Road Sim Ag NOx Sim Ag NH3 Total Livestock

30 30,000 Total South Platte N emissions, Mg 25,000 NOx Elect.+Ind 20,000 15,000 NOx Highway NOx Off Road ,000 5,000 NOx Agriculture NH 3 Crops NH 3 Livestock 0

31 SUMMARY 1. What are the sources of NO x and NH 3? -Vehicles, both highway and off-road -Electricity and industrial point sources -Confined animal operations -Ag and rangeland emissions no longer dominant As emissions increase, excess N deposition pushes protected mountain ecosystems toward N saturation and acidification

32 SUMMARY 2. How have emissions changed with changes in land use and population along the Colorado Front Range? -The big change is population-driven: construction, transportation, energy -Shifting agriculture toward CAFOS But this is also a water redistribution story, and water is also shifting toward municipal uses, away from agricultural uses

33 FRONT RANGE INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT What is the vulnerability of the Colorado Front Range to climate variability and societal activities?

34 Ten-Year Goals of the Integrated Assessment Provide the scientific knowledge base to help society make informed decisions on how to keep the Greater South Platte Basin ecologically and economically healthy. Integrate ecosystem, climate knowledge, and sustainability science into policy, management, and decision-making processes in the South Platte Basin

35 Assessment Questions 1. How vulnerable are lands, air, waters, and biota to human activities and climate change? 2. Are there thresholds of catastrophic change? 3. Are there trajectories toward catastrophic change?

36 Assessment Questions 4. What is the uncertainty associated with projections of future conditions? 5. Are there areas where not enough is known to evaluate the effects of climate and human activities, where more research is needed?

37 Determine the vulnerability of natural resources to human activities and climate change

39 Develop and serve technically credible natural resources information Web sites Models Statistical Analyses Spatial Data Sets

40 Collaborate Communicate Build Trust Explain Uncertainties Offer Scenarios Work with decision-makers and opinion leaders to integrate natural resource information into decision-making processes

41 The process by which Front Range Integrated Assessment will pursue its goals.

Consequences of Nitrogen Deposition to Rocky Mountain National Park

Consequences of Nitrogen Deposition to Rocky Mountain National Park Jill S. Baron, US Geological Survey M.Hartman, D.S.Ojima, K. Nydick, H.M. Rueth B.Moraska Lafrancois, A.P. Wolfe, J. Botte, W.D. Bowman