Energy Storage in the U.S.

Transcription

1 Energy Storage in the U.S. Paul Denholm National Renewable Energy Laboratory September 23, 2013

2 Outline National Renewable Energy Laboratory 2 Innovation for Our Energy Future Brief History Current Installations Funding and Deployment Activities Value Challenge Additional Value Created by Deployment of Renewables Conclusions

3 Load (MW) Load (Fraction of Annual Peak) Ancient History of Energy Storage (<1980) Challenges of meeting variations in demand provided early motivations for storage (<1980) - Projected nuclear builds (100s of GW) - Fuels Act (no gas) Summer Maximum Winter Spring Minimum Hour 3 0.0

4 Early Storage Build Out CAES: 1 Plant (110 MW) Conventional Pumped Hydro: ~ 20 GW Others (<100 MW total): A few batteries, SMES, mostly for local power quality issues 4

5 Installed Capacity 5

6 Electric Sector Natural Gas Price ($/tcf) Recent History (1980s-2000) Limited Activity PHS costs increase, increased siting challenges Cheap natural gas Limited nuclear build out Exotic technologies remain costly Fuel Use Act Cheaper and/or easier to meet variation in load and capacity requirements with conventional generation resources 6

7 Current Capacity 7

8 More Recently Electric Sector Price ($/tcf) Renewed Interest in Storage Emergence of energy and ancillary service markets Natural gas price volatility Perceived role of storage in enabling renewables

9 Current Activities Many proposed plants Renewed RD&D funding via DOE ARRA and ARPA-E California AB 2514 Challenging Economics 9

10 Demonstration Projects via ARRA From : Energy Storage Activities in the United States Electricity Grid, May

11 ARPA-E Projects 11

12 ARPA-E Projects About $58 million total 12

13 PHS Existing and proposed plants About 40 GW in the FERC licensing queue. 13

14 CAES Proposed Plants Name Location Cavern Type Capacity (MW) Iowa Stored Dallas Aquifer Energy Park Center, Iowa Norton Energy Storage PG&E Seneca (NYSEG/Iberdrola ) Norton, Ohio Kern County, California Schuyler County, NY Depleted hard-rock mine Cost ($/kw) Heat Rate (Btu/kWh) 933 1, ,700 3,860 4,300 Energy Ratio b Porous rock 300 1,187 Bedded salt

15 Possible CAES Geology Succar & Williams

16 What is storage worth? Standard metrics (LCOE) are not particularly useful Storage provides multiple values, but not all can be monetized 16

17 Value of Storage in Restructured Markets National Renewable Energy Laboratory 17 Innovation for Our Energy Future Market Evaluated Historical Values of Energy Storage in Restructured Electricity Markets Location Years Evaluated Annual Value ($/kw) Assumptions Energy Arbitrage PJM a $60-$ hour, 80% efficient device. Range of efficiencies and sizes evaluated [1] NYISO b $87-$240 (NYC) $29-$84 (rest) 10 hour, 83% efficient device. Range of efficiencies and sizes evaluated. USA c $37-$45 80% efficient device, Covers NE, No Cal, PJM CA d 2003 $49 10 hour, 90% efficient device. Regulation NYISO b $ USA e $236-$429 PJM, NYISO, ERCOT, ISONE Contingency Reserves USA e $66-$149 PJM, NYISO, ERCOT, ISONE a Sioshansi et al b Walawalkar et al c Figueiredo et al d Eyer et al e Denholm and Letendre 2007

18 National Renewable Energy Laboratory Required Storage Capital Cost ($/kw) 18 Innovation for Our Energy Future Value of Energy Storage in U.S. Markets Capital Charge Rate 9.8% 12.0% 13.9% Arbitrage Only Regulation Only Contingency Only Annual Benefit of Storage ($/kw) Arbitrage alone is generally insufficient to support most storage technologies, which are generally >$1,000/kW Renewable deployment will increase opportunities for economic storage deployment..and also the competition

19 Bottom Line on Value National Renewable Energy Laboratory 19 Innovation for Our Energy Future Current market conditions supports bulk storage at capital costs under $2000/kW for a 6 hour or more device How does this change with the impact of large scale renewable deployment?

20 Impacts of Renewables on the Grid National Renewable Energy Laboratory 20 Innovation for Our Energy Future Storage is often perceived as necessary for renewables to achieve a large (>10%? >20%?) penetration. Renewables are seen as a source of value for storage Can renewables be used without storage? How do renewables impact the grid?

21 National Renewable Energy Laboratory 21 Innovation for Our Energy Future So What are the Opportunities? Renewables increase the already existing value (and size) of markets for storage Arbitrage/load leveling/unit cycling Operating Reserves Transmission Alternatives How do storage economics compete with the alternatives?

22 Storage Value ($/kw) National Renewable Energy Laboratory Storage Value ($/kw) Storage Annual Value (M$) 22 Innovation for Our Energy Future Example Analysis X NG Prices Base NG Price % 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Wind and Solar Penetration MW Energy-only device in Colorado Energy-only device compared to reserves devices Base Energy Only Device 300 MW Energy + Reserves 100 MW Reserves Only 0 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% VG Penetration

23 Renewable Curtailment Rate (%) Fraction of Incremental Wind Generation Curtailed Curtailment Limits (Modeled) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 80% flexiblity (12 GW min load) 90% flexibility (6 GW min load) 100% flexibility (0 min load) Example marginal wind curtailment in Texas 20% 10% 0% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Fraction of System Electricity from Wind 35% 30% Marginal Marginal and average curtailment in CO 25% Total 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% VG Penetration National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future

24 Flexiblity Supply Curve National Renewable Energy Laboratory 24 Innovation for Our Energy Future

25 Conclusions Low natural gas is the dominate force in U.S. electricity sectors Storage is being constructed based on R&D support and mandates. Costs will need to be reduced substantially for storage to be cost competitive Storage is undervalued in existing markets and it is still difficult to assess the true value and opportunities for energy storage in the current and future grid Storage faces competition for other sources of flexibility The role of storage with renewables has yet to be well defined National Renewable Energy Laboratory 25 Innovation for Our Energy Future

26 Questions?