IMPLEMENTATION COMPLETION AND RESULTS REPORT (TF-95978) ON A GRANT FROM THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT FACILITY TRUST FUND IN THE AMOUNT OF US$8.

Transcription

1 Public Disclosure Authorized Document of The World Bank Report No.: ICR IMPLEMENTATION COMPLETION AND RESULTS REPORT Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized (TF-95978) ON A GRANT FROM THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT FACILITY TRUST FUND IN THE AMOUNT OF US$8.532 MILLION TO THE FEDERATIVE REPUBLIC OF BRAZIL FOR THE SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORT AND AIR QUALITY PROJECT IN SUPPORT OF PHASE 4 OF THE SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORT AND AIR QUALITY PROGRAM Public Disclosure Authorized Transport and ICT Global Practice Brazil Country Management Unit Latin America and Caribbean Regional Office June 28, 2016

2 CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (Exchange Rate Effective as of June 1, 2016) Currency Unit = Brazilian Real (BRL) US$1.00 = BRL 3.57 FISCAL YEAR January 1 December 31 ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS ANTP BNDES BRT CAI CPS FGV FM GEF GHG IBRD ICR LAC LUTP M&E MTR NGO NMT PAD PDO STAQ TDM TOD WRI Associação Nacional de Transportes Públicos (National Association of Public Transport) Brazilian Development Bank Bus Rapid Transit Clean Air Institute for Latin American Cities Country Partnership Strategy Getulio Vargas (Business School) Financial Management Global Environment Facility Greenhouse Gas International Bank for Reconstruction and Development Implementation Completion and Results Report Latin America and the Caribbean Leaders in Urban Transport Planning Monitoring and Evaluation Midterm Review Nongovernmental Organization Nonmotorized Transport Project Appraisal Document Project Development Objective Sustainable Transport and Air Quality Transport Demand Management Transit Oriented Development World Resources Institute

3 Regional Vice President: Jorge Familiar Senior Global Practice Director: Pierre Guislain Country Director: Martin Raiser Practice Manager: Aurelio Menendez Project Team Leaders: Georges B. Darido Bianca Bianchi Alves ICR Team Leader: Bianca Bianchi Alves

4 BRAZIL SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORT AND AIR QUALITY PROJECT CONTENTS Data Sheet A. Basic Information... i B. Key Dates... i C. Ratings Summary... i D. Sector and Theme Codes... ii E. Bank Staff... ii F. Results Framework Analysis... ii G. Ratings of Project Performance in ISRs... v H. Restructuring (if any)... v 1. Project Context, Global Environment Objectives, and Design Key Factors Affecting Implementation and Outcomes Assessment of Outcomes Assessment of Risk to Development Outcome Assessment of Bank and Borrower Performance Lessons Learned Comments on Issues Raised by Borrower/Implementing Agencies/Partners Annex 1. Project Costs and Financing Annex 2. Outputs by Component Annex 3. Emissions and Economic Analysis Annex 4. Bank Lending and Implementation Support/Supervision Processes Annex 5. Beneficiary Survey Results Annex 6. Stakeholder Workshop Report and Results Annex 7. Summary of Borrower s ICR and/or Comments on Draft ICR Annex 8. Comments of Cofinanciers and Other Parteners/Stakeholders Annex 9. List of Supporting Documents... 57

5 A. Basic Information Country: Brazil Project Name: Project ID: P L/C/TF Number(s): TF ICR Date: 6/27/2016 ICR Type: Core ICR Lending Instrument: APL Borrower: Original Total Commitment: Revised Amount: Environmental Category: B BR-GEF Sustainable Transport and Air Quality (STAQ) Project Municipality of São Paulo - Brazil, Municipality of Belo Horizonte, Municipality of Curitiba US$8.532 million Disbursed Amount: US$6.75 million US$8.532 million Implementing Agencies: National Association of Public Transport (ANTP) Cofinanciers and Other External Partners: n.a. B. Key Dates Process Date Process Original Date Revised / Actual Date(s) Concept Review: 04/08/2005 Effectiveness: 8/2/ /28/2010 Appraisal: 07/27/2009 Restructuring(s): 9/13/ /07/2015 Approval: 12/28/2009 Midterm Review: 12/5/ /30/2012 Closing: 12/30/ /30/2015 C. Ratings Summary C.1 Performance Rating by ICR Outcomes: Risk to Development Outcome: Bank Performance: Borrower Performance: Moderately Satisfactory Moderate Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory C.2 Detailed Ratings of Bank and Borrower Performance (by ICR) Bank Ratings Borrower Ratings Quality at Entry: Moderately Satisfactory Government: Moderately Satisfactory Quality of Supervision: Moderately Satisfactory Implementing Agency/Agencies: Satisfactory Overall Bank Performance: Moderately Satisfactory Overall Borrower Performance: i Moderately Satisfactory

6 C.3 Quality at Entry and Implementation Performance Indicators Implementation QAG Assessments (if Indicators Performance any) Potential Problem Project at any time (Yes/No): Problem Project at any time (Yes/No): PDO rating before Closing/Inactive status: No Yes Satisfactory Quality at Entry (QEA): Quality of Supervision (QSA) Rating None None D. Sector and Theme Codes Original Actual Sector Code (as % of total Bank financing) Public Administration - Transportation Theme Code (as % of total Bank financing) Climate Change City-wide Infrastructure and Service Delivery Environmental policies and institutions 9 9 Infrastructure services for private sector development 7 7 Land administration and management 4 4 E. Bank Staff Positions At ICR At Approval Vice President: Jorge Familiar Pamela Cox Country Director: Martin Raiser Makhtar Diop Practice Manager: Aurelio Menendez Aurelio Menendez Project Team Leader: Georges Darido Paul Procee/Georges Darido ICR Team Leader: ICR Primary Authors: Bianca Bianchi Fatima Arroyo Arroyo, Li Qu F. Results Framework Analysis Project Development Objectives (PDO) and Key Indicators(as approved) The objective of the project is to assist the selected agencies to (a) reduce GHG emissions growth rates by fostering a long-term increase in the promotion of less energy-intensive transport modes and (b) promote the implementation of policies and regulatory frameworks that foster the development of sustainable transport systems. ii

7 Revised Project Development Objectives (as approved by original approving authority) The development objective and key indicators were not revised. (a) PDO Indicator(s) Indicator Indicator 1: Baseline Value Original Target Values (from approval documents) iii Formally Revised Target Values Actual Value Achieved at Completion or Target Years An increase in the number of trips made by public transportation within intervened corridors Value (quantitative or qualitative) for São Paulo 3.50 for Belo Horizonte Date achieved 01-Jul Jun Dec Dec-2015 Comments (including % achievement) 96% of the results achieved for São Paul and 35% for Belo Horizonte. The value refers to cumulative growth from annual growth reported by Associação Nacional de Transportes Públicos (ANTP) from 2009 to Growth rates for 2014 and 2015 were assumed the same as for the previous years. An increase in the number of NMT trips within intervened areas Indicator 2: Value (quantitative or for São Paulo qualitative) Date achieved 01-Jul Jun Dec Dec-2015 Comments Target surpassed. Results are more than 20 times the expected results. Refers to the (including % number of bike trips in Av. Eliseu de Almeida in Sao Paulo (2010 to 2015), part of the achievement) 400 km of cycle lanes implemented in Sao Paulo from 2010 to Indicator 3: A decrease in CO 2 equivalent emissions by ground transport within the area of influence of the relevant component or subproject Value for Belo (quantitative or qualitative) Horizonte for Curitiba Date achieved 01-Jul Jun Dec Dec-2015 Comments Target surpassed. Results are more than 4 times the expected results for Belo Horizonte (including % and 2 times for Curitiba. Please refer to annex 3 for details. achievement) An increase in the number of cities that integrate environment and climate Indicator 4: change into urban transport and land-use master plans, which include the development of regulatory and financial frameworks that foster the development of sustainable transport systems at local and national levels. Value (quantitative or qualitative) Date achieved 01-Jul Jun Dec Dec-2015 Comments (including % achievement) Target surpassed. Curitiba, Belo Horizonte, and São Paulo are integrating environment and climate change components into urban transport and land-use master plans and studies.

8 (b) Intermediate Outcome Indicator(s) Indicator Indicator 1: Baseline Value Original Target Values (from approval documents) iv Formally Revised Target Values Actual Value Achieved at Completion or Target Years Comprehensive studies analyzing the impacts and providing recommendations on improving fuel efficiency and reducing GHG emissions from freight transport within urban areas. Value (quantitative or qualitative) Date achieved 01-Jul Jun Dec Jun-2015 Comments (including % achievement) Target surpassed. The two studies financed by the project are the São Paulo urban freight origin-destination survey and São Paulo pilot night delivery program. Indicator 2: Number of cities with land-use policies and regulations designed/proposed that create incentives for more efficient and sustainable transport-oriented development Value (quantitative or qualitative) Date achieved 01-Jul Jun Dec Jun-2015 Comments (including % achievement) Indicator 3: Target surpassed. Belo Horizonte, Curitiba, São Paulo, and Rio de Janeiro have achieved the target. The initiatives in Belo Horizonte and Curitiba were financed by the project; the initiatives in São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro were financed under other World Bank co-financed activities. Number of cities preparing or implementing specific measures to promote interconnectivity between public transport systems and other modes of transport Value (quantitative or qualitative) Date achieved 01-Jul Jun Dec Jun-2015 Comments (including % achievement) Indicator 4: Target surpassed. Belo Horizonte, São Paulo, and Curitiba are preparing or implementing specific measures to promote interconnectivity between public transport systems and other modes of transport based on studies financed by the project. Number of initiatives to improve public transport operations (segregated or nonsegregated) through modernizing operations framework or complementary infrastructure Value (quantitative or qualitative) Date achieved 01-Jul Jun Dec Jun-2015 Comments (including % achievement) Indicator 5: Target surpassed. In São Paulo, the project supported four initiatives, with direct impacts on bus operations. In Belo Horizonte, the project directly financed two initiatives. In Curitiba, the project supported one initiative. Number of NMT initiatives (km or facilities) including pedestrian, bikeway, and ancillary infrastructure built Value

9 (quantitative or qualitative) Date achieved 01-Jul Jun Dec Jun-2015 Comments (including % achievement) Target surpassed. The project has supported three bikeways (two in Belo Horizonte and one in Curitiba). The project has also supported the Mobility on Foot Seminar, a fourday learning event on pedestrian mobility that included 600 participants. Indicator 6: Number of traffic management policies or plans developed or in place Value (quantitative or qualitative) Date achieved 01-Jul Jun Dec Jun-2015 Comments (including % achievement) Target surpassed. The project directly supported Belo Horizonte creating traffic simulation capacity for downtown/brt corridors. The project indirectly supported a Transport Demand Management pilot implemented in São Paulo. G. Ratings of Project Performance in ISRs No. Date ISR Actual Disbursements PDO IP Archived (US$, millions) 1 20-Apr-2010 Satisfactory Satisfactory Feb-2011 Satisfactory Satisfactory Jul-2011 Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory Feb-2012 Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory Oct-2012 Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory Jun-2013 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Unsatisfactory Jan-2014 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Unsatisfactory Jun-2014 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Unsatisfactory Dec-2014 Satisfactory Moderately Unsatisfactory Jun-2015 Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory Dec-2015 Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 5.99 H. Restructuring (if any) Restructuring Date(s) Board Approved PDO Change ISR Ratings at Restructuring PDO v Amount Disbursed at Restructuring in US$, millions 9/13/2013 N MS MU 2.78 IP Reason for Restructuring and Key Changes Made (a) 18-month extension of the closing date from December 30, 2013 to June 30, 2015, to allow all ongoing activities to be completed; (b) an increase in the Designated Account ceiling specified in the Disbursement Letter to conform to the current implementation plan; and (c) inclusion of goods and nonconsultant services as a procurement category and an

10 04/07/2015 N S MU 4.10 expenditure type in the Withdrawal Schedule (through an amendment to the Grant Agreement). (a) six-month extension of the closing date from June 30, 2015 to December 30, 2015, to allow all ongoing activities to be completed; (b) inclusion of goods and/or nonconsulting services in the description of categories to align expenditure categories for the three participating cities; and (c) reallocation of grant funds between categories to support operational costs of the implementing agency. I. Disbursement Profile (in US$, millions) vi

11 1. Project Context, Global Environment Objectives, and Design 1.1 Context at Appraisal Introduction 1. At appraisal, the transportation sector was responsible for more than one-third of the carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions in Latin America, and it was the fastest growing sector. The International Energy Agency projected that worldwide CO 2 emissions from vehicles would increase by a factor of 2.4 (or 140 percent), from about 4.6 gigaton in 2000 to 11.2 in The vast majority of this increase would take place in developing regions, especially Latin America and Asia, as a result of increased motorization and vehicle use. 2. Urban transport represented a key sector for long-term greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation efforts. Latin American cities were rapidly growing, and about 80 percent of the people were living in urban areas concentrating most of the vehicle kilometers of travel. The increasing use of motor vehicles not only generates additional GHG emissions (mainly CO 2 ) but also results in growing air pollution and associated health impacts, increased congestion, more accidents, and reduced competitiveness of cities. In Brazil, the majority of transport sector CO 2 came from urban modes, particularly passenger transport. 3. Brazilian cities had experienced phenomenal growth and changes in spatial structure since the 1980s by the time of appraisal. The country s population was 160 million in 1997 and 192 million in 2007 (annual growth rate of 1.8 percent a year). Its urban areas absorbed more than 80 million people, and the urban share of the national population went from 56 percent in 1970 to over 85 percent in Brazilian cities accounted for 90 percent of the country s gross domestic product and included half of its poor. The larger cities had become diversified, taking advantage of large markets for inputs and ideas to enjoy high levels of productivity and growth. A key challenge for Brazil was to make its cities more livable, more equitable, and more competitive by maximizing agglomeration economies (efficiency gains derived from market size and the exchange of goods, services, and information) while minimizing congestion costs (traffic, pollution, crowding, violence, and decline of social capital). Given the spatial impacts of the trade liberalization and privatization of the 1990s, enabling cities to rapidly improve urban services is an urgent task. 4. There are at least three institutional levels to promote urban and freight transport initiatives in Brazil at federal, provincial, or city level. Federal support for urban transport is limited by the Brazilian constitution but in the past decade has included major project investments through the PAC Programa de Aceleração ao Crescimento (Growth Acceleration Program) stimulus program administered through the Ministry of Cities, BNDES, and Caixa Federal. State support for urban transport is usually limited to metropolitan infrastructure and services in the large urban areas such as São Paulo, Belo Horizonte, and Curitiba. The municipalities are the primary investors in urban transport services and basic infrastructure including roads, public transport systems, and nonmotorized facilities, as well as related plans and local policies. Municipalities often have limited budget, so state and federal support is important both for legislation setting and for providing budget for larger infrastructure projects. This scenario requires a strong effort to maintain institutional alignment. 1

12 Rationale for Bank Assistance 5. The World Bank s involvement in the urban transport sector arose from the challenges of rapid growth of Latin American cities and by the need for a coordinated effort to address transport and environment issues at all institutional levels. The aim was to reduce transport costs - not only in a financial sense but also with regard to time and environmental damage - and increase transport efficiency, enhance urban productivity and competitiveness, and contribute to the region s overall economic growth. By acting on several fronts, such as public transport enhancement, freight management, coordination of public sector policies in land-use and transport planning, promotion of environment-friendly solutions, such as nonmotorized transport (NMT), and traffic demand management, this project aimed to reconcile mobility with quality of life and global and local environmental sustainability. It was also a partial response to some of the more intractable problems associated with urban poverty, not only with regard to access to economic opportunity but also the broader dimensions of social inclusion through improved access to schools, health facilities, and wider social interaction. 6. At appraisal, the World Bank Group s FY08 11 Country Partnership Strategy (CPS/ Report No BR) for Brazil aimed to support policies and investments that would encourage economic growth and social development in a context of macroeconomic stability. The project was consistent with the FY08 11 CPS and the World Bank s development priorities in Brazil by promoting environmentally and socially sustainable development within urban areas. The strategy consisted of deepening the World Bank s participation in several areas, including sustainable transport, air quality, and climate change, primarily through lending for transport, land-use planning, renewable energy, and energy efficiency. The CPS also listed institutional strengthening for better governance as a priority, and the Global Environment Facility (GEF) project aimed to strengthen and link the different entities in charge of environmental management in a regional network for sharing experiences and enhancing the analytical tools available at institutional levels and make them accessible to all the cities. Strategic Approach 7. The GEF Sustainable Transport and Air Quality (STAQ) Program was divided into a regional project and three separate country projects, in Argentina (P114008), Brazil (P114010), and Mexico (P114012). This program was specifically designed to link directly with ongoing or planned World Bank-transport initiatives 1 in key cities of the region and for fostering policies, knowledge sharing, and cooperation to promote more energy-efficient transport systems and attain global environmental benefits while ensuring the attainment of other developmental goals. Some of the GEF activities supported the long-term sustainability of World Bank-financed projects, improving access to these projects and maintaining sustainability. 8. The regional approach aimed to foster the development of a critical mass of cities simultaneously working on sustainable transport initiatives. Clean Air Institute for Latin 1 At appraisal, the World Bank had three active urban transport operations and one under preparation in the state of São Paulo (BR São Paulo Trains and Signalling [P106038, active]; BR São Paulo Metro Line 4 - Additional Financing [P105959, active]; and São Paulo Metro Line 5 Project [P116170, under preparation]). 2

13 American Cities (CAI), as the executing agency of the regional GEF project (P096017, LAC Regional Sustainable Transport and Air Quality Project), aimed to provide regional coordination support and technical assistance. This would have a widespread beneficial effect throughout the region, because it would facilitate many cities, including those initially not a formal part of the program, to develop their own sustainable transport initiatives. 9. The Brazil GEF project included technical assistance and pilot investments that were part of comprehensive urban transport and land-use policies and plans. Those were aimed at introducing and developing sustainable transport initiatives toward promoting the clean air agenda in Belo Horizonte and Curitiba (cities) and São Paulo (metropolitan area). This city-level experience aimed to provide valuable lessons to inform and promote similar positive policies and plans at a national level. The STAQ Program, prepared as a combination of local-level activities with national- and regional-level coordination, was designed to best support participating national- and municipal-level decision makers and professionals toward fully developing sustainable transport policies and plans. At a national level, the Brazilian National Association of Public Transport (Associação Nacional de Transportes Públicos, ANTP), a nongovernmental, nonprofit organization, would play the role of the national executive agency of the project, and it would have five participating agencies of the project at city level (Empresa de Transportes e Trânsito de Belo Horizonte in Belo Horizonte, Instituto de Pesquisa e Planejamnto Urbano de Curitiba in Curitiba, Companhia de Engenharia de Trafego de São Paulo, and Secretaria do Verde e do Meio Ambiente in the city of São Paulo, and Empresa Metropolitana de Transportes Urbanos in the state of São Paulo). The participation of these cities and the metropolitan region was guaranteed through specific implementation agreements between the respective municipalities and the ANTP (the executing agency of the project). 1.2 Original Project Development Objectives (PDOs) and Key Indicators 10. The project development objective (PDO) as defined in the Grant Agreement states: The objective of the project is to assist the selected agencies to (a) reduce GHG emissions growth rates by fostering a long-term increase in the promotion of less energy-intensive transport modes and (b) promote the implementation of policies and regulatory frameworks that foster the development of sustainable transport systems. 11. Progress toward achievement of the PDO was measured through a set of key indicators, including (a) an increase in the number of trips made by public transportation within intervened corridors; (b) an increase in the number of NMT trips within intervened areas; (c) a decrease in CO 2 equivalent emissions by ground transport within the area of influence of the relevant component or subproject; and (d) an increase in the number of cities that integrate environment and climate change components into urban transport and land-use master plans, which include the development of regulatory and financial frameworks, that foster the development of sustainable transport systems at local and national levels. 1.3 Revised PDO (as Approved by Original Approving Authority) and Key Indicators, and Reasons/Justification 12. The development objective and key indicators were not revised. 3

14 1.4 Main Beneficiaries 13. The main beneficiaries of the grant are the citizens living in Belo Horizonte and Curitiba cities and São Paulo metropolitan area. Belo Horizonte has a population of 1.4 million people, Curitiba 1.7 million, and São Paulo metropolitan region 19 million. The project was expected to have positive impacts also on living standards of the population living in other Brazilian cities, which may use the knowledge and example of the selected cities. The selected cities were chosen based on technical quality, local capacity, commitment, and political support to ensure that the subprojects had the highest direct GHG impact and indirect impact through dissemination of lessons learned. 1.5 Original Components 14. This project co-funded measures in five thematic Windows (identified in the regional program), according to the priorities identified by the cities, World Bank, and GEF for climate change mitigation in the urban transport sector. A detailed description of the investments under each thematic window (component) is provided as follows: Window (Component) 1: Freight transport. Provision of technical assistance and training to improve the efficiency of freight transport in urban areas and reduce conflicts and impacts on other modes of transport, including, among others, the development of analytical tools for planning and evaluating projects and policies that improve freight transport in selected metropolitan regions. Proposed funding US$1,250,000. Window (Component) 2: Better coordination and integration of transport and land-use planning and environmental management. Provision of technical assistance and training to foster more integrated transport and land-use planning and to reduce the use of private motor vehicles, reduce trip lengths, and increase the accessibility to public transport and NMT. Proposed funding US$600,000. Window (Component) 3: Enhancement of public transport. Provision of technical assistance and training and carrying out pilot investments to improve public transport systems, facilitate the effectiveness and interconnectivity of those systems with other modes of transport, and induce mode switching away from private vehicles. Proposed funding US$2.499 million. Window (Component) 4: Nonmotorized transport. Provision of technical assistance and training and carrying out pilot investments to better integrate walking and biking into the municipalities planning processes and transport facilities and to create incentives for their use as a viable and safe alternative to traditional motorized transport systems. Proposed funding US$1.5 million. Window (Component) 5: Transport Demand Management (TDM). Provision of technical assistance and training to support the development and evaluation of transport interventions and policies to rationalize use of private vehicles and create 4

15 incentives for more widespread use of public transport and nonmotorized modes. Proposed funding US$2,492,000. Window (Component) 6: Project administration. Provision of technical assistance and financing for administrative and technical support staff required for the implementation, supervision, and monitoring of the project in the selected metropolitan regions. Proposed funding US$191, Co-financing. The counterpart activities financed by the three cities complement those financed by the GEF. Proposed funding: US$16,972, Revised Components 16. Project components were not revised. 1.7 Other Significant Changes 17. Restructuring. The project underwent two Level II restructurings: (a) September (i) 18-month extension of the closing date from December 30, 2013 to June 30, 2015 to allow all ongoing activities to be completed (see Section 2.2); (ii) an increase in the designated account ceiling specified in the Disbursement Letter to conform to the current implementation plan; and (iii) the inclusion of goods and non-consultant services as a procurement category and an expenditure type in the Withdrawal Schedule (through an amendment to the Grant Agreement). (b) April (i) Six-month extension of the closing date from June 30, 2015 to December 30, 2015 to allow all ongoing activities to be completed (see Section 2.2); (ii) the inclusion of goods and/or non-consulting services in the description of categories to align expenditure categories for the three participating cities; and (iii) the reallocation of grant funds between categories to support operational costs of the implementing agency. 2. Key Factors Affecting Implementation and Outcomes 2.1 Project Preparation, Design, and Quality at Entry 18. The preparation of the project underwent a rigorous review of the proposals from the cities in Brazil, based on technical quality, local capacity, commitment, and political support. The selection criteria intended to ensure that the subprojects in the selected city would have the highest direct GHG impact and indirect impact through dissemination of lessons learned. Three metropolitan areas were identified (Belo Horizonte, Curitiba, and São Paulo) to participate in the Brazil country project, which also shared the following characteristics: (a) they were economic and governmental centers at the national or regional level; (b) their municipal governments were committed to addressing environmental and sustainable transport issues; (c) they complied with pertinent federal regulations and are entitled to prepare projects for the World Bank; (d) they had a positive and, in most cases, ongoing track record of experience in successfully executing 5

16 operations financed by the World Bank; and (e) there was a large potential for major urban transport investments in the coming years for all the three cities. 19. The project preparation relied on World Bank s experience from long-standing involvement in the climate change sector and air quality management in general, and its interrelationship with urban transport in particular in Brazil as well as other Latin American cities. This experience provided unique reference to the World Bank during project preparation with regard to regional expertise, initiative coordination, and best practices. In the meantime, the studies and pilots proposed in the project would contribute to building sound foundations for transport and environmental challenges, as well as benefit major World Bank-financed transport projects in the selected cities. 20. The project incorporated lessons learned from previous experiences in Brazil as well as Latin American cities, including (a) long-term integrated land-use and transport planning and research, (b) coordination among agencies involved at all levels of government; (c) fostering of national and regional-level land-use planning and air quality policies and sharing of the experience among other Latin American cities; (d) institutional strengthening and legal framework improvement; and (e) promotion of private and public stakeholders participation. These lessons helped guide the redefinition of activities priorities during implementation and achieve greater commitment from the stakeholders involved. 21. The GEF STAQ Program was designed using an innovative format: a regional umbrella project, and three country projects in Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico. The rationale of this design was to (a) establish a network of local and national government stakeholders, international organizations, and private sector entities to promote policies and actions leading toward more energy-efficient and cleaner urban transport systems in Latin American cities; (b) assist cities to develop sustainable urban transport strategies that integrate climate change and air quality components; and (c) improve the capacity of cities to quantify the impacts of transport policies on climate change and air pollution emissions. The project design was consistent with the CPS, World Bank, and GEF objectives. This regional approach created synergies among countries and helped strengthen and deepen the analysis when similar issues appeared in more than one country. On the other hand, it created difficulties because the results framework, mandated by the regional program, was not necessarily appropriate to all activities in the different countries. The project planned to finance six windows (components) in three different cities, with 29 technical activities at appraisal expected to be implemented through 29 separate contracts. 22. The components and activities were consistent with the PDO, but the description of activities was sometimes broad and ambitious, especially considering the amount of resources provided by the grant; so, some of the results will not be directly attributable to this project. For instance, the first part of the PDO, about reducing the growth rate of GHG emissions, in some cases was too high a level considering some of the actual project activities. However, the country projects shared the same development objectives defined by the regional program, which limited the capability of making changes in each country s PDO. Additionally, the main project indicators were also defined by the regional program and did not vary substantially among projects, and the GEF insisted on the inclusion of GHG emission in the PDO and monitoring and evaluation (M&E). The lack of detailed definition of the methodology for calculating those indicators resulted in multiple interpretations and a difficulty in monitoring during 6

17 implementation. The second part of the PDO, to promote the implementation of policies and regulatory frameworks that foster the development of sustainable transport systems, was more consistent and attributable to the project s activities. 23. The institutional arrangements of the project were innovative; the ANTP - a Brazilian nongovernmental organization (NGO) - was selected as the implementing agency, different from the GEF projects in Argentina and Mexico. The ANTP was selected not only for its technical capacity on sustainable transport issues but also for its reach within Brazil s major cities and state government transportation agencies. The ANTP was responsible for the execution of all GEF-financed contracts in Brazil and financial management (FM), as well as the supervision and monitoring for all activities of the Brazil GEF project. Although the ANTP was acting as the only executive agency for the project, it relied substantially on the inputs of the project s participating agencies that were the technical coordinators and end users of the activities. The ANTP and the participating city agencies demonstrated a slow learning curve on World Bank procurement policies and FM processes, which slowed down project implementation in the initial years. The multilayer structure required multiple internal reviews and coordinators for a set of activities within each agency. This complexity generated uneven implementation progress, poor coordination when there was a change in personnel as normally occurs on a multiyear project, and delays during the whole implementation (for instance, delays in the procurement process and the reporting of monitoring indicators). Nevertheless, implementation progress picked up when the ANTP and local agencies strengthened their capacity at the later stage of the project, especially in FY2014/15, when the project administration budget was increased. 24. The overall risk was defined during appraisal as Moderate. Some critical risks were adequately anticipated at project appraisal stage, but most did not hinder the project implementation. The fragmentation of institutional responsibilities, despite having resulted in delays, did not limit knowledge sharing and policy development, as expected. On the contrary, knowledge sharing, through seminars and training, was one of the strongest points of the project, as will be further detailed. It should be noted that some of the issues that surfaced during project implementation were not anticipated at appraisal: (a) project implementation delays because of lack of coordination between the ANTP and the participating agencies on the World Bank s procurement policies and FM processes, which caused uneven implementation progress in each city; (b) difficulties in collecting baseline data and reporting indicators; and (c) underestimated project administration cost allocated to the ANTP. The delays generated two restructurings, in 2013 and 2015, to extend the closing dates. 2.2 Implementation 25. The commitment of the participating agencies varied throughout the project cycle. The commitment of the participating agencies was strong at the early stages of project implementation. However, by 2013, the scope of about one-third of the activities were merged or significantly altered while maintaining their relevance to the project s objectives, either because the agency decided to procure and implement the study or design with its own funds or because of contract management issues and schedule dependencies. The priority of some activities also wavered after municipal elections at the end of With the first project restructuring in September 2013, the participating agencies were asked and reconfirmed their commitment to 7

18 individual activities, although there continued to be uneven technical implementation among the participation agencies due to the reasons cited above and the turnover of key staff. 26. Delays occurred because of changing priorities, slow learning curve, and underestimated administration budget, but teams addressed the challenges and processed the two project restructurings. Delays accumulated after declaring effectiveness in July 2010 mainly due to changes in the priority of the participating agencies and an initial lack of coordination and inexperience by the implementing agency and participating agencies with World Bank procurement policies and FM processes. The delays in implementation carried over to delays in disbursement. Before restructuring in September 2013, more than three years after declaring effectiveness, the disbursement was US$2.78 million or 33 percent of the total amount. The combination of slow World Bank approvals and the underestimated resources for project administration also contributed to project delays. The ANTP, being an NGO with no continuous sources of funding, did not want to commit to initiating an activity without sufficient reassurance that the activity will be concluded within the project period and managed within the initial budget for the ANTP s operating expenses. This approach contributed to some gaps when activities could not be initiated. Additionally, the ANTP was initially understaffed and did not have resources beyond the grant for project management. The World Bank team identified these challenges during the Midterm Review (MTR) and restructurings and was proactive in looking for solutions. The response consisted of (a) focusing for a while on a smaller number of activities to accelerate implementation; (b) increasing the training offered to the ANTP and participating agencies on critical topics such as the World Bank s procurement and FM procedures; (c) supporting the improvement of institutional coordination between the ANTP and the participating agencies at the level of decision makers; and (d) increasing the budget for operational expenses for the ANTP. The first restructuring in September 2013 extended the closing date by 18 months and the second restructuring in April 2015 by six months. Considering the strong appreciation of the U.S. dollar in 2014 and 2015, the World Bank team supported the significant effort of the client to not only conclude all ongoing activities but also identify additional and highly relevant activities that could be executed during the grant s closing date. 27. The project restructurings allowed the activities to be adapted and the PDO to be achieved despite delays, and 27 activities were successfully concluded. The number of activities varied between a high of 29 at appraisal, to 15 at MTR, to finally 27 completed by the closing date. The full table of planned and executed activities is presented in annex 2. In December 2014, the foreseen closing date of June 30, 2015 would have allowed the project to disburse, at best, 55 percent of the funds, given the devaluation of the Brazilian Real. With the second extension, the project team and the ANTP identified ways to expand activities successfully implemented, by supporting strategic studies and training activities that would have broad interest and dissemination and requesting a project extension until December The loan disbursed US$6.75 million or 79 percent of the total amount, from which 32 percent of the funds were disbursed in the extension period (from June 2015 to December 2015). Annex 1 shows the differences between planned versus actual commitments according to each participant city and window. Actual expenditures with Window (Component) 2, Better coordination and integration of transport and land-use planning and environmental management, encompassed 17 percent of the total grant when compared to the initial 7 percent estimate. Part of this difference can be explained by the workshops, seminars, and dissemination activities that had a broader impact on improving technical capacity in the sector, which was identified as the main 8

19 bottleneck for implementation. Activities for Window (Component) 5, Transport Demand Management (TDM), encompassed only 3 percent of the total grant when compared to the initial 29 percent estimate by appraisal. This was a result of a lack of readiness from the counterparts to engage in these types of activities, which are often erroneously considered less effective than the mainstream planning activities. Finally, Window (Component) 6, Project administration, encompassed 5 percent of the total grant when compared to the initial 2 percent estimate, which is a result of the restructuring after the identification of a understaffing from the ANTP for operations of such a comprehensive project. With regard to the disbursement from each participating city, Curitiba performed slightly better than São Paulo and Belo Horizonte when compared to appraisal. 28. The ANTP s responsibility also included overseeing the implementation of the project and monitoring progress in coordination with the regional executing agency, CAI. The coordination between the ANTP and CAI did materialize at the beginning of the project but lost momentum with time. Additionally, the regional project closed in June 2013, 30 months before the Brazil GEF closing date. This fact did not allow CAI to support national projects until their closing date. 29. The project supported a national debate around sustainable urban transport. As it had done since the 1970s, the ANTP organized national and regional conferences with thousands of participants from dozens of cities. During their biannual national conferences (2009 in Curitiba, 2011 in Rio de Janeiro, 2013 in Brasília, and 2015 in Santos, São Paulo), the ANTP hosted meetings dedicated to the STAQ Program with an advisory committee of representatives from the cities Curitiba, Belo Horizonte, the metropolitan region of São Paulo and other invited national experts. These meetings were technical discussions on timely topics relevant to the grant s objectives and presentations on the status of the grant open to the public. These conferences played an important role of a forum for debate and deliberation regarding crosssectoral issues of urban transport in the project locations and supported the project implementation promoting stakeholders convergence and sharing of agendas, which were critical to improve quality of the project activities. 30. Conclusion. The two restructurings and the effort of the project supervision have accelerated the implementation and broadened the range of project activities during the last year of implementation, when in parallel, the disbursements peaked and the contracts were finalized. 2.3 Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) Design, Implementation, and Utilization 31. M&E design. The M&E framework at appraisal was designed to conduct a project impact survey at three levels: (a) project activity level; (b) the city level, including related activities being carried out by the three partner cities; and (c) the policy level for a wider set of Brazilian cities taking advantage of a national survey carried out by the ANTP. Each project window (component) had specific intermediate results indicators, which were consistent with the activities of that window (component) and would result in the indicators for the project outcomes. However, there was no available data to calculate all the indicators for each city, collecting the full set of data was unfeasible with the project resources, and there was no clarity on the methodology to calculate them. Additionally, the key outcome indicators were also defined by the regional program and did not vary substantially among projects, and the GEF 9

20 insisted on the inclusion of GHG emission in the PDO and monitoring and evaluation (M&E).While these indicators are adequate to reflect positive environmental impacts of transport projects, the methodologies to measure were not easily implementable. 32. M&E implementation. The M&E framework proved difficult to complete and stayed partially incomplete during most of the implementation. In the first stage, there were delays in the definition of baseline values, target dates, and intervened areas. This was partly because of the fact that although the project monitoring remained formally a responsibility of the ANTP, the actual responsibility for the construction of baselines and collection of data remained at the city level, with the ANTP lacking any capacity to enforce this responsibility when the cities did not comply. Moreover, technical support to be provided by the CAI did not materialize as expected under the regional GEF grant. The ANTP presented evidence about the difficulty in reporting some indicators during implementation, namely a decrease in emissions in the intervened corridors. As some of the indicators were mandated by the regional GEF program, a CAI workshop on emissions methodologies was held in September 2010 in Washington, DC. By MTR (January 2012), the M&E plan was not in place, but it was agreed that the ANTP was to prepare and present a plan with the technical support of CAI and specialized consultants. The original plan aimed at surveying the impact at three levels proved to be too ambitious and infeasible given the implementation delays that consumed the attention of the ANTP and the need to set a baseline and start reporting indicators in the short term. The qualitative indicators were incorporated in the M&E framework by June 2014 and the quantitative indicators by December The World Bank team followed these issues closely and reported on the advancement in each Implementation Status and Results Report, recognizing at the beginning of the implementation that the M&E framework was complex and could be impractical during implementation. However, none of the two project restructurings suggested changes to the PDO and/or M&E framework mainly because of the following reasons: (a) to maintain similar indicators across countries to allow comparing results of the regional program and (b) to maintain consistency with the overall Global Environmental Objective statement. 33. M&E utilization. The result indicators were not provided on time by the ANTP or the project cities during the implementation of the project. Therefore, the M&E information was not available to inform decision making and resource allocation. 2.4 Safeguard and Fiduciary Compliance 34. The project complied with all applicable World Bank environmental safeguards policies. This operation only triggered the Operational Policy OP/BP Environmental Assessment. By its nature and focus, aimed at improving air quality through different actions and initiatives in three Brazilian cities (São Paulo, Curitiba, and Belo Horizonte), there were no reports of significant adverse environmental impacts. The positive ones will be achieved through a longer period, given that different actions undertaken have a longer-term reflection on the overall air quality in their regions. Only minor shortcomings with no material impact on compliance with policy requirements or achievement of development objectives occurred. For this reason, and considering that the operation did not generate environmentally negative consequences, compliance with the World Bank s environmental safeguards policy was Satisfactory. 10

21 35. Procurement under the project complied with World Bank policies. Procurement under the project was handled adequately, despite the initial delays and inexperience of the ANTP with procurement guidelines, which was addressed during implementation by training and hiring appropriate staff. The procurement plan was updated on time and was followed during the entire implementation. Procurement prior reviews took place as defined in the procurement plan. Procurement post reviews took place annually and did not identify any substantial problem, which would result in misprocurement or would cause contracts to be declared ineligible. Only minor procedural procurement issues were identified throughout the project execution, and compliance with the World Bank s procurement policy was Satisfactory. 36. The project s FM complied with World Bank policies. The ANTP s FM was rated Satisfactory throughout project implementation considering that (a) reporting and auditing arrangements provided accurate and timely financial information and (b) there was reasonable evidence that project funds were used for the purposes intended. Regular supervision missions monitored FM as well as followed up on the issues raised in the previous missions. There was continuing compliance with the conditions set forth in the Grant Agreement, Disbursement Letter, and Operations Manual. The only minor shortcoming, which had no adverse impact on the project, was that the ANTP outsourced its accounting function to an external firm. 2.5 Post-completion Operation/Next Phase 37. In March 2016, after the closing date, the World Bank discussed with the counterparts the next phase to give continuation to this project. The ANTP identified a list of priority projects to improve urban mobility in Brazilian cities, which are being addressed in further engagement with Brazil. 38. Institutional bureaucracy has been delaying the implementation of plans to link land use and transport, although actual plans did include strong policies taking this into account and are likely to materialize in the near future. Impacts of these policy actions can only be assessed in a longer-term period, but results from the BR São Paulo Trains and Signaling Project Implementation Completion and Results Report (ICR) (P106038) have demonstrated that lowincome population growth in the buffer areas of the transit network are much higher than for the remaining populations. This can be considered a positive result, because the bottom 40 percent of poorest people rely mostly on NMT and public transport to access services and jobs. Furthermore, despite the often-strong opposing public opinion, policies and measures taken by the participating cities followed the principles of sustainable mobility of reducing car usage and increasing efficiency in public transport. Given the often-low costs involved with these initiatives, the economic crisis is unlikely to affect this agenda. The external political environment, with the 2013 demonstrations about the affordability of transport fares, ratified the need to tackle transport issues with stronger policies toward public transport and NMT. 39. The World Bank is supporting the project participant cities of Belo Horizonte and Curitiba and the metropolitan region of São Paulo in identifying strategies and potential financial support to ensure the implementation and sustainability of the projects since the grant has closed. A new GEF operation is currently being drafted to allow for expanding the agenda on sustainable mobility, promoting cofunded initiatives in six thematic windows. This draft proposal is being developed based on the priorities of the Ministry of Cities, Ministry of Transport, and GEF for 11

22 climate change mitigation in the urban transport sector. The World Bank is also seeking funds for expanding the agenda of financing transport and target subsidies in Brazil. 40. Additionally, most cities are undertaking various interesting initiatives in the field of sustainable transport with their own resources, including expanding bikeway networks (400 km of bikeways in São Paulo), bike-sharing programs (São Paulo and Belo Horizonte), and construction of exclusive lanes for public transport (Belo Horizonte, Curitiba, and São Paulo), among others. 3. Assessment of Outcomes 3.1 Relevance of Objectives, Design, and Implementation 41. Relevance of objectives rating: High. Project objectives were highly consistent with the Borrower s and Bank priorities at appraisal. PDO 1 supported pillar of improving environmental sustainability and PDO 2 supported both strengthening the macroeconomic and good governance foundations of growth and of improving environmental sustainability pillars CPS FY08-11 (Report No BR). They were directly linked to the GEF-4 long-term objectives ( ), of facilitating market transformation for sustainable mobility in urban areas leading to reduced GHG emissions and the strategic objectives of promoting sustainable innovative systems for urban transport reduced GHG emissions and to promote land-use change as a means to protect carbon stocks and reduce GHG emissions. They supported local strategies of the Borrower s and were aligned with State and local projects also being financed by the World Bank. The project was also consistent with the transport sector World Bank s priority on climate change mitigation. 2 Project objectives remained highly relevant to the priorities of Brazil (CPS Report No BR) of improving sustainable natural resource management and climate resilience, and the GEF-5 objectives, of promoting innovative low-carbon technologies, and promoting energy efficient, low-carbon transport and urban systems. Before United Nations Climate Change Conference in Paris in December 2015, Brazil presented its Intended Nationally Determined Contribution, where it is noted that Brazil intends to commit to reduce GHG emissions by 37 percent below 2005 levels by The GEF s current global priorities stated in the GEF-6 promote energy-efficient, low-carbon transport and urban systems as a key objective in the climate change focal area. 42. Design rating: Substantial. The design of the project was innovative and fostered increased regional coordination among Latin American cities on the sustainable transport agenda. The design provided an integrated approach, relevant to achieve GHG emission reduction, including land-use interventions, promotion of public transport systems and NMT, vehicle efficiency, and TDM. Some project activities, such as definition of a regulatory framework to promote more efficient and cleaner freight transport in the metropolitan area or Elaboration of a master plan for urban mobility that is integrated with the environmental and 2 Karekezi, S., L. Majoro, T. Johnson, Climate Change Mitigation in the Urban Transport Sector: Priorities for the World Bank. The World Bank. 3 FINAL.pdf. 12

23 social policies; redefinition of legal framework for urban mobility, were consistent with the PDO 1, but their description was broad and ambitious. Considering the amount of resources provided by the grant, some of the results were not directly attributable to the project, such as the investments on BRT in Belo Horizonte and the bus corridors or bikeway infrastructure in São Paulo, although were indirectly influenced by project activities. The second part of the PDO, to promote the implementation of policies and regulatory frameworks that foster the development of sustainable transport systems, was more consistent with and attributable to the project s activities. For instance, in several cases, the project influenced the implementation of policies, such as the parking maximums in São Paulo, the integration of environmental, land-use and/or urban logistics considerations into mobility plans in Belo Horizonte, São Paulo and Curitiba. The umbrella structure, including one regional project, implemented by CAI, and three country projects moving in parallel, yet interacting and sustaining an implementation dialogue (among cities and with CAI), was an original and worthwhile design concept, despite some of the implementation challenges encountered down the line. 43. Implementation rating: High. Project implementation was responsive to changes in counterpart needs (i.e., the project was restructured twice and the component activities were adjusted based on changed needs of the participating cities). 3.2 Achievement of Project Development Objectives 44. Objective 1. Reducing GHG emissions growth rates by fostering a long-term increase in the promotion of less energy-intensive transport modes (Substantial). The substantial increase in the number of trips made by public transportation, the high increase in NMT trips within the intervened corridors, and the decrease in CO 2 equivalent tons emitted by ground transport in the intervened corridors explain the substantial achievement of objective It is worth noting that changes in travel patterns and reductions in GHG emission levels are typically long-term effects of implemented policies and investments, which have been completed and are in use for a significant period of time. For the purposes of this assessment, three types of activities or interventions were considered and are detailed in the Data Sheet and annexes 2 and 3. First, physical interventions financed by the project, such as the bikeways and cycle paths in Belo Horizonte and Curitiba, can have direct effects on the use of nonmotorized modes and the change in GHG emission growth can be estimated. Second, studies and other activities financed by the project may support sustainable transport modes and reductions in GHG growth rates over time, but these effects may not be possible to estimate in the short term. Finally, there are related counterpart initiatives, which were indirectly supported by the project or the World Bank s engagement with the participating cities, which have an impact on mode shares and GHG emissions and can be estimated. 46. Overall, in Brazil, there has been significant growth of private motorized modes, relatively stable ridership for public transport, and notable growth of nonmotorized modes since the grant was appraised. Each of the three participating cities/metropolitan region presents particularities, although the general trend is the continued growth of private motorized vehicles and slight growth in the number of public transport trips in the intervened corridors. The main drivers behind this trend are increasing incomes (which is highly correlated with increasing motorization), demographic growth, subsidized fuel prices, and attractive financing conditions 13

24 for new vehicles. It is important to point out that even stable public transport ridership in this context is a significant achievement. Moreover, nonmotorized trips have seen a significant increase in the intervened corridors of the three participating cities, influenced by the investment in bike facilities and infrastructure and the support of pro-bike policies. The following paragraphs summarize the observable results in each participating city. 47. In São Paulo, the studies directly financed under Window (Component) 1, - Freight transport, removed barriers to strategic planning for reductions in GHG growth rates over time. The origin-destination (OD) survey was a pioneer effort in Brazil, the first important step toward a comprehensive framework for freight. Without this great effort of data collection, the patterns of goods movement in the city would not be known, a prerequisite for strategic planning. Only a few cities in the world are equipped with this comprehensive data. The night delivery pilot decreased total travel times by 43 percent, and while the decrease in CO 2 equivalent tons emitted by ground transport was not calculated directly, the actual percentage reduction is likely to be at the same order. While the pilot included only one neighborhood in the city, there is strong potential for replicating this initiative for specific supply chains, and the overall results for the city can be significant. 48. Other activities not directly financed but influenced by the grant activities are worth noting toward the achievement of the objective 1. During the implementation period of the grant, the number of passenger trips on public transport and NMT in the intervened corridors increased 9.6 percent 4 and 122 percent, 5 respectively. This was largely due to an investment and policy program by the city of São Paulo that began in 2013 to implement and enforce more than 400 km of new dedicated bus lanes and 400 km of new bike lanes or paths. Through the GEF engagement with the city of São Paulo, the World Bank and partners advised on both of these programs, as well as related sustainable transport initiatives such as parking policies in the context of the land-use master plan, revision of the bus network and concession models, expanding the bike-sharing system, piloting night-time freight deliveries, and other innovative initiatives. Some of the results of these activities are summarized below: The mode share of bus trips had increased from percent to percent. 6 The number of private vehicles and motorcycles increased at an average annual rate of 3.58 percent and 7.58 percent, respectively, from 2007 to 2012, far below the rate in other big cities such as Fortaleza, Salvador, and Natal where the annual increase rate 4 Results provided by the ANTP. With regard to general ridership in the bus system, both Belo Horizonte and São Paulo have managed to increase bus ridership by 0.57 percent and 1.54 percent, respectively, per year from 2009 to While the magnitude might seem small, it is worth mentioning that the effects of bus corridors recently implemented in São Paulo are likely to produce long-term results that will be likely seen in the future 2017 Freight origin-destination survey. Moreover, the intervened lines in São Paulo have seen an increase of 9.13 percent in overall bus speeds, which generates a reduction in travel time for users and increases attractiveness of the system. 5 While the results refer to only one corridor, the intervened corridors have shown substantial results in before and after traffic counts as demonstrated in 6 The ANTP - Data from operation cities. 14

25 for private vehicles and motorcycles was 6 8 percent and percent, respectively. 7 The city political investment on bus lanes has contributed to a reduction of approximately 19,000 hours of travel time per year, and approximately 10,900 tons per year of CO 2. 6 Given the small investment necessary to implement those lanes, which takes advantage of existing infrastructure, this initiative has presented an economic rate of return of 15 percent, as shown in annex 3. Although it might be early to identify the overall results, it is likely that this type of policy will produce significant results with regard to mode shift, and ridership seems to have started to increase for the first time since The data on NMT shows an increase in the number of bike users. São Paulo is on track to have 400 km of cycle lanes implemented in The number of bike trips according to the 2012 mobility survey is small but not negligible, around 333,000 daily trips (more than double the number of taxi trips), and growing considerably. A new bikeway inaugurated in July 2015 in Avenida Paulista attracted 50,000 people in one day and there is preliminary evidence that bike trips doubled on this specific major new route. On the monitored intervened bike paths, it is estimated that bike trips in São Paulo have increased by more than 50 percent 8 when opened. One specific corridor in São Paulo was monitored since 2010 and has seen a 122 percent increase in traffic flows from 2010 to In Belo Horizonte, the project financed bicycle infrastructure investments that had a direct impact on the reduction of GHG emissions. The interventions helped to mitigate the projected growth of the CO 2 emissions from the transport sector by tons per day. The activity Transit-oriented Development promotes densification along the Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) stations and, when implemented, is likely to reduce distances traveled and increase participation of public transport, which generates a decrease in emissions. The potential benefits of this specific project were not calculated. 50. The project activities have also indirectly supported 23 km of high-quality BRT and 70 km of bicycle lanes that were implemented during the project period, 10 a result of a comprehensive mobility master plan that helped mitigate the tendency of a decline in public transport usage for the city. In 2014, the city reached 23.8 percent of the target in dedicated lanes for buses. The number of passenger trips on public transport in the intervened corridors has increased 3.5 percent, 11 but the mode share of public transport was around 67 percent in 2014, a 7 Estimate based on: IEMA (2014) Avaliação dos efeitos da implantação de faixas exclusivas em SP: tempo de viagem, consumo de combustível e emissões de poluentes. São Paulo Results provided by the ANTP. With regard to general ridership in the bus system, Belo Horizonte has increased bus ridership by 0.57 percent per year from 2009 to

26 general decrease of 3 percent from At the same time, the number of passengers benefiting from integration grew from 12.9 percent in 2009 to 16.2 percent in During the BRT implementation, due to construction and line changes, the bus system has seen a decrease in average speeds, generating a temporary decline in service quality, which is one of the reasons for overall decrease in mode share. The speeds are now recuperating and it is estimated that for the , the number of public transit trips will have a steady growth with new investments in BRT and the metro, which will encourage more travelers to travel by public transport. Although the overall demand for public transport has declined, the more operationally efficient trunk system, which earlier included only the metro, now carries 50 percent more passengers than before. 51. Finally, in Curitiba, the bike projects directly financed with this grant had a direct impact on the reduction of GHG emissions. Bicycle Route Plan and Designs for Curitiba project will have an estimated impact of tons of CO 2 reductions per day, when the plan is fully implemented. The sections already concluded generated a reduction of tons of CO 2 per day. Bicycle Route Plan and Designs for Curitiba project, if fully implemented, will represent approximately 1.14 percent reduction in the total urban transport emissions. The modal share of public transport in Curitiba is estimated to be around 45 percent based on the census data. 14 Since 2009, Curitiba has not invested substantially in transport infrastructure and the plans for a metro line have not evolved. Despite the general lack of investment in public transport infrastructure because of financial constraints, the project financed executive designs for improving BRT stations to increase comfort and convenience for users, which will be implemented as part of the future investments program. Finally, the city has been very innovative and a pioneer in integrating transport and land use; however, it lacks information for planning, making it difficult to make projections or assess the impacts of projects. For this reason, only direct impacts of the project were estimated. 52. Objective 2. Promoting the implementation of policies and regulatory frameworks that foster the development of sustainable transport systems (High). This grant financed a large number of relevant activities that either removed important barriers or directly resulted in the integration of environment and climate change components into urban transport and land-use master plans and studies, which in turn promoted the implementation and regulatory frameworks to foster sustainable transport systems. Two types of activities or initiatives were considered in this assessment and are supported by the indicator results in the Data Sheet: first, activities directly financed by the project, such as studies, workshops, and other technical assistance that influenced policy and regulatory discussions and decisions, and second, related initiatives or World Bank engagements with the project s participating cities (not necessarily financed by the project, but directly related to its PDO) that also influenced relevant policies and regulations. 53. The project financed several studies that were the first of their kind in the participating cities and have influenced the strategic agenda for the development of more sustainable transport 12 porte%20coletivo/%c3%8dndice%20de%20prefer%c3%aancia%20do%20uso%20do%20transporte%20coletivo porte%20coletivo/%c3%8dndice%20de%20passageiros%20do%20transporte%20coletivo%20beneficiados%20c. 14 Censo Demográfico Rio de Janeiro: Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística,

27 policies and systems. For example, in Curitiba, the project financed the first Climate Vulnerability and Socioeconomic Assessment, which influenced the update of the city s master plan and future investment in transport infrastructure. In São Paulo, the project directly supported pioneering studies such as (a) the first urban freight movement Freight OD survey that will serve as the basis for city logistics planning and policies; (b) studies to optimize the bus transport network, which together with planned reforms and concessions could produce a significant impact on the performance of the bus system; (c) a methodology for inventory, assessment, and management of the impacts and environmental risks related to the mediumcapacity metropolitan transport system of São Paulo through Empresa Metropolitana de Transportes Urbanos; and (d) the first emissions inventory for the municipality of São Paulo through Secretaria do Verde e do Meio Ambiente. In Belo Horizonte, a TOD Study for the perimeter road developed conceptual plans for urban redevelopment of the area surrounding the perimeter road and, after alternatives analysis, for a BRT line that is projected to transport around 300,000 passengers per day by 2020, corresponding to 15 percent of the total demand in mass transit in the city. It is estimated that 27 percent of daily passengers (80,000) will be induced demand from increased densification surrounding the BRT stations. While these studies do not have immediate impacts on energy use and emissions, they are basic tools to support sustainable transport development going forward. 54. Other groundbreaking initiatives related to the PDO have included capacity-building activities and technical assistance aimed at removing critical barriers for the implementation of sustainable transport initiatives through the development of institutional, operational, and human resources capacities. These activities support objective 2 by promoting the implementation of policies and regulation that foster the development of sustainable transport systems, although outcomes are difficult to quantify. The most notable activities are as follows: (a) Window (Component) 1 - Freight transport. The project supported the evaluation a pilot night delivery program for São Paulo that has been implemented with significant results in the intervened area. Although relying on the specific supply chains analyzed, the results of such a policy have produced increase in speeds of 32 percent and decreases in travel times of 43 percent. The World Bank and partners have also developed publications on the state-of-practice and state-of-the-art urban and green freight logistics and hosted focus group meetings between the government, industry, and academics in six Brazilian cities. 15 (b) Window (Component) 2 - Better coordination and integration of transport and landuse planning and environmental management. Brazil s National Urban Mobility Law, adopted in April 2012, mandates that all Brazilian cities with a population over 20,000 (more than 1,600 cities) prepare and present an urban mobility plan to the Ministry of Cities by Low capacity in urban planning has been identified as a critical bottleneck in the development of these mobility plans and to translate these into executable projects. As a result, the project supported the implementation of this law by financing a national capacity-building program led by the ANTP (based in part on the World Bank s LUTP curriculum) through an online course on the 15 This information is available at: 17

28 3.3 Efficiency principles of sustainable transport planning disseminated to 600 participants in The World Bank also facilitated workshops in Belo Horizonte in 2012 with support from CAI and international TOD experts. (c) Window (Component) 3 - Enhancement of public transport. The World Bank hosted, together with Embarq/World Resources Institute (WRI), a workshop in São Paulo in August 2014 on the international experience in designing and managing bus service contracts with the participation of more than one dozen cities. In Curitiba, the project supported a reformulation of the iconic tube stations, which will improve user comfort during waiting time at stations and the implementation of bike paths that link to the transport system. (d) Window (Component) 4 - Nonmotorized transport (NMT). The project brought higher awareness on the importance of NMT and its role in reducing emissions and improving efficiency of the transport system by directly financing a pedestriancentric four-day conference in São Paulo with 300 participants from all over Brazil. Registrations were beyond expectations and indicated the strong interest in improving the quality of NMT in the cities given the importance of trips by foot (around 35 percent in large cities and higher numbers in medium and small cities). (e) Window (Component) 5 - Transport Demand Management (TDM). The World Bank and partners have supported a Pilot Corporate Mobility Program for a business district along the Marginal Pinheiros in São Paulo, a highly congested expressway in São Paulo, which created incentives for switching to NMT and transit systems, carpooling, and teleworking to reduce car access to offices. 16 The project is now being expanded by WRI. 17 The World Bank and partners have also advised São Paulo and Belo Horizonte, which are considering changing laws to enable future implementation of demand management policies and pricing. The World Bank has advised the city of São Paulo on its initiatives to regulate taxi and shared mobility services. The project influenced a new parking policy in São Paulo, adopted through the ambitious land-use master plan in 2015, which limits the number of parking spaces for new developments to discourage the use of private vehicles where better alternatives exist. São Paulo is now one of the first cities in the developing world to eliminate parking minimums and replace them with parking maximums citywide. 55. Efficiency - Modest. Due to the long-term benefits of the project and the fact that the grant financed sometimes only the first stage or removed barriers for future implementation, it is difficult to compare the costs involved in achieving project objectives with the benefits. Shortterm benefits are measurable and evident in the bikeways financed in Belo Horizonte and Curitiba. The project financed the construction of bikeways in Belo Horizonte and Curitiba, which has a measurable impact on GHG emissions. Bike infrastructure investments in Belo

29 Horizonte financed with this project (geometric design, signaling, and route safety for Venda Nova and Barreiro bicycle route; Bicycle Route Horizontal and Vertical Signage) had a direct impact on the reduction of GHG emissions by metric tons of CO 2 per day, which represents 0.83 percent of total emissions of urban transport. The bike projects in Curitiba financed with this STAQ Program (Bicycle Route Plan and Designs for Curitiba; Bicycle Route Horizontal and Vertical Signage - Cecília Meirelles link; Bicycle Route Horizontal and Vertical Signage - Euclides Bandeira link) also had a direct impact on the reduction of GHG emissions. Bicycle Route Plan and Designs for Curitiba have a potential impact estimated in the reduction of tons of CO 2 per day if the plan is fully implemented. Sections of Cecília Meirelles and Euclides Bandeira, already concluded, have a reduction of tons of CO 2 per day. Thus, projects Cecília Meirelles and Euclides Bandeira represent an impact on the order of 0.32 percent and 0.17 percent of CO 2 of the total urban transport emissions, respectively. The Bicycle Route Plan and Designs for Curitiba Project, if fully implemented, will represent approximately 1.14 percent reduction in the total urban transport emissions. The total reduction of emissions generated by the concluded bikeways is tons of CO 2 per day (24.93 plus tons of CO 2 ) or 11,826 tons of CO 2 per year. 56. The estimated social values of carbon in financed projects are US$30 per metric ton of CO 2, resulting in a value of approximately US$354,792 per year (US$30 times 11,826 CO 2 equivalent tons) for the first year of this project. This does not include the long-term benefits, including the lifecycle of the project and the change in modal share due to new riders using this infrastructure. Therefore, it is likely that these interventions will generate a larger benefit in the years to come. 57. The GEF provided financing for three contracts of US$2.03 million for the construction of 16.4 km of bike paths in Belo Horizonte and Curitiba (30 percent of the total disbursed); the cost per kilometer of bike path is US$123,780. If only considering the short-term benefits, the calculation of the construction cost of the civil works divided by the emission reduction shows that the cost effectiveness of the bike paths was US$172 per ton (US$2.03 million divided by 11, ton CO 2 per year). Annex 3 provides more details about the emission reduction. 3.4 Justification of Overall Outcome Rating Rating: Moderately Satisfactory 58. In summary, the objectives as well as the design and implementation remain relevant to the country s current development strategy and GEF priorities. Objective 1 has been achieved to a substantial extent and PDO objective 2 has been achieved to a high extent, as evidenced by the increased use of less energy-intensive modes, even while private motor vehicle use continued to increase, as well as the advancement of important initiatives, policies, and regulations to promote sustainable transport at the city and national levels. Overall efficiency is rated modest given the limited scale and time frame of the project. The combination of the ratings for project relevance, achievement of PDOs, and efficiency justify an overall outcome rating of Moderately Satisfactory. 59. Results of the Latin America GEF STAQ Program. The regional project (P096017) and the country projects in Argentina (P114008) and Mexico (P114012) had closing dates of June 30, 2014, December 10, 2014, and November 30, 2015, respectively. All country projects 19

30 have been rated as Moderately Satisfactory and shared similar lessons learned such as the difficulties in implementing the results framework, the importance of strong institutional arrangements, the complexity when dealing with a multileveled sector, and the ability of the GEF to provide catalyst financing for innovative activities and to push the agenda of sustainable development. 3.5 Overarching Themes, Other Outcomes, and Impacts (a) Poverty Impacts, Gender Aspects, and Social Development 60. Although Brazil has seen a decrease in poverty since the beginning of the 21st century, 10 million people lived under poverty conditions 18 in In Brazil, significant poverty is concentrated in urban areas. International evidence shows that numerous challenges threaten the ability of cities to become viable pillars of sustainable development, for instance, unequal access to, and inefficient use of, public transportation. 19 The project financed activities that consider both environmental and social vulnerability aspects, through investments in NMT to feed into public transport systems and that allow for affordable and less-pollutant traveling, increasing accessibility to services and jobs. Moreover, the project directly financed a study in Curitiba that allowed for cross-referencing in a geographical information system both the environmentally vulnerable and socially vulnerable populations, allowing for defining government priorities in investments directed to the more vulnerable groups. (b) Institutional Change/Strengthening 61. The project supported capacity building at a country level through the online training on sustainable mobility, which was updated to include the contents from the World Bank s Leaders in Urban Transport Planning (LUTP) curriculum adapted for Brazil. More than 600 participants from 24 different states and 135 cities, coming from private agencies, public sector, and academia, completed the training as of December Around 80 percent of the participants were from medium- and high-level management. Finally, the project supported a four-day learning event on pedestrian mobility that included 600 participants from 12 states in Brazil and 37 cities (80 participants through video streaming) from the three levels of government, academia, and civil society. The objective was to increase awareness about the economic benefits of on-foot mobility, its effects on health and the environment, its role in containing emissions, the current legislation barriers, and the lack of funding toward infrastructure for pedestrians. 62. The tailored technical assistance supported by the GEF project strengthened institutional capacity in sustainable transport at a national and local level through various activities. Moreover, the drafting of Brazil s 2012 National Urban Mobility Law was supported by organizations cooperating on various GEF project activities (including the ANTP, the participating project agencies, and NGOs such as Embarq). In fact, the topics covered by the national law are very closely aligned to the GEF project s five thematic windows (components) 18 Source: World Bank. The limit of poverty in Brazil (by international standards) is US$1.9 a day. 19 Source: Sustainable Development Challenges, UN World Economic and Social Survey

31 (nonmotorized, public transport, integrated land-use planning, demand management, and freight). (c) Other Unintended Outcomes and Impacts (Positive or Negative) 63. Several Brazilian cities have been active and innovative in addressing the urban transport challenges, by investing in improvements to their public transport networks and NMT infrastructure. Because of these efforts, in 2015, two of the three cities that are part of this project obtained the Sustainable Transport Award (stdaward.org). The Sustainable Transport Award is given by a commission representing the Institute for Transportation and Development Policy, the World Bank (independent from project team members), the WRI Ross Center for Sustainable Cities, Clean Air Asia, Clean Air Institute, and Cooperation for Urban Mobility in the Developing World (Conference on the Development and Improvement of Urban Transport). The commission selected São Paulo and Belo Horizonte (together with Rio de Janeiro) for the scale and substance of achievements in increasing mobility and enhancing quality of life in its major cities. With the support from the project, the debate generated in the conferences organized by the ANTP has been putting the sustainable transport agenda at the core of urban planning decisions. The agenda has been further pushed through an increased civil society participation in the protests initiated in 2013 about affordability of fares and use of public funds. The higher general awareness about the issues has been legitimized by some of the difficult decisions such as integrated fare policies, reallocating existing road space for bus corridors and bike lanes, reducing speed limits for safety reasons, eliminating parking minimums, and charging per vehicle-kilometer for services provided by transport network companies as currently proposed in São Paulo Summary of Findings of Beneficiary Survey and/or Stakeholder Workshops 64. Not applicable. 4. Assessment of Risk to Development Outcome Rating: Moderate 65. The activities funded by the GEF have influenced the implementation of municipal laws and policies in the three cities, as follows: (a) public transport improvements on BRT corridors in all three cities; (b) NMT in all three cities through pilot bicycle investments or bike-sharing policies; (c) land-use planning in São Paulo and Belo Horizonte through the use of integrated modeling; (d) demand management in São Paulo through a corporate mobility pilot project that was disseminated to other cities; and (e) urban freight management in São Paulo and Belo Horizonte through a Freight OD survey and focus groups with industry and academics. As the project activities were mostly studies and plans, as well as a few pilot works, a sustained commitment by the National Government, municipal governments, and related participating agencies is critical to the sustainability of the project s development outcome and is likely to continue. Some activities require strong political coordination such as restructuring bus network configuration and changing concessions contracts, while others are dependent on availability of 20 For more information, please see: 21

32 funds, such as infrastructure improvements in NMT, bikeways, and BRT. Some of the activities had the objective of creating awareness and building currently almost inexistent agendas (city logistics and pedestrian mobility). Finally, the studies and plans conducted in the project are considered to be important examples for many cities as they are required to implement sustainable transport plans under a national urban mobility law adopted in 2012 by the Brazilian Federal Government. 5. Assessment of Bank and Borrower Performance 5.1 Bank Performance (a) Bank Performance in Ensuring Quality at Entry Rating: Moderately Satisfactory 66. The World Bank ensured quality at entry through an adequate alignment of the project objectives with the CPS and national and World Bank transport strategies, as well as appropriate implementation arrangements. The World Bank s inputs and processes before Board approval were appropriate. The World Bank provided guidance and support to ensure that technical and environmental specifications were prepared to meet high-quality standards, and within a short time. 67. While the M&E framework was consistent with the PDO, the description of activities was sometimes broad and ambitious and the methodology to calculate indicators was not detailed enough. The project was originated as part of an umbrella project, originally conceived as one integrated project, and later divided into a regional program and three country projects, which dictated the overall results framework. This structure promoted cross-coordination and cooperation among the 11 GEF cities, generating dialogue among the cities, joint participation in conferences, and so on. The World Bank s effort in generating this interaction among local players at a regional scale should be commended, even if implementation presented challenges. 68. Project preparation included an analysis of alternatives; the Brazil GEF project is the result of evaluating the soundness of many individual city proposals, which were assessed on technical quality, local capacity, commitment, and political support. The risk assessment was comprehensive, but some of the issues that surfaced during project implementation were not anticipated at appraisal, such as the difficulties in implementing the complex results framework and an underestimation of administrative costs that later delayed project implementation. 69. Finally, project preparation was characterized by a strong participatory approach, requiring strong inputs from participating cities in defining the actual content of projects financed through the GEF. Although this guaranteed that the technical assistance being provided was aligned to concrete city demands, changes in administration generated uneven engagement along the project implementation. (b) Quality of Supervision Rating: Moderately Satisfactory 70. The World Bank supervised the project diligently with the required expertise. Implementation Status and Results Reports were prepared on a six-monthly basis and the ratings 22

33 were candid and appropriate. In parallel with project activities, the World Bank engaged in policy dialogue with municipalities on sector reforms and cutting-edge analytical work. 71. The team implemented two project restructurings and worked closely with the client to improve the pace of implementation; these actions were instrumental in improving the rate of disbursement and substantially achieving the PDO. The World Bank team performed with agility in utilizing the available framework and flexibility provided by the windows (components) to modify the activities to better suit the prevailing needs of the agencies. The World Bank team intensively supported efforts in improving the disbursement by including training programs and workshops, which had the twin advantage of quick disbursements and widespread capacity building and impact. 72. However, despite active interaction with the ANTP, the results framework was not adequately used during implementation and the World Bank did not provide an extension to improve the disbursements and achieve even greater results. (c) Justification of Rating for Overall Bank Performance Rating: Moderately Satisfactory 73. Overall World Bank performance is rated Moderately Satisfactory based on the two dimensions rated above: (a) World Bank performance in ensuring quality at entry and (b) the quality of supervision. 5.2 Borrower Performance (a) Government Performance Rating: Moderately Satisfactory 74. Government ownership varied among cities and along the project cycle. Changing priorities and difficulties in complying with the World Bank s procurement processes led to a delayed implementation. The participating agencies have reaffirmed commitment and have based their activities on strong stakeholder support and on institutional engagement with different levels to guarantee the success and sustainability of the activities. The M&E activities were undertaken by agencies but not at the level necessary to calculate the project indicators; so, some results were obtained only after the implementing agency identified specific consultancy to measure project outcomes. (b) Implementing Agency or Agencies Performance Rating: Satisfactory 75. The ANTP responded efficiently on project issues, adhered to the project implementation requirements, engaged with all World Bank missions, and contributed to the completion of the project. Although the procurement learning curve of the ANTP advanced slowly in the initial years of implementation, by MTR, the implementing agency performed more efficiently. By the closing date, it showed clear evidence of efficiency in successfully completing 27 activities during the project life, against the 29 activities estimated in the Project Appraisal Document (PAD) (annex 2), and managing to increase disbursement from an expected 56 percent to 79 percent. Although the M&E framework was not used during the project cycle, the ANTP did 23

34 provide indicators reference values at the end of the project. The ANTP has satisfactorily engaged with partners and stakeholders through several events, seminars, and workshops with a national reach and showed strong commitment to achieve the development objectives. (c) Justification of Rating for Overall Borrower Performance Rating: Moderately Satisfactory 76. The rating of borrower performance is based on the ratings for each of the two dimensions: (a) government performance as Moderately Satisfactory and (b) implementing agency as Satisfactory. 6. Lessons Learned 77. Based on the issues discussed in the earlier sections of the present ICR, some of the lessons learned that could be applied in similar operations are given below. 78. Continuous refinement and adaptation of the planned GEF activities to fit emerging priorities of the participating agencies under established thematic windows (components) helped maintain relevance and client commitment. Linking GEF projects to larger World Bank operations and large projects by the counterparts is common practice to leverage funds and save supervision and coordination costs. Combining this strategy with just-in-time support for emerging initiatives in the form of pilot interventions and strategic studies can provide even greater value to the client and development outcomes. Innovative government initiatives or policies often cannot be planned years in advance because they require a political window of opportunity or other unforeseen conditions. There were a few GEF activities, unforeseen at appraisal, that added value to the client s policy and reform agenda. For example, the night-time freight delivery pilot in São Paulo emerged from ongoing conversations between city officials, industry, and academics, and the GEF was the ideal instrument to finance a rapid and independent evaluation of this pilot project. The relative flexibility of the World Bank s procurement guidelines compared to Brazilian laws also allowed for a more expedited procurement process and consulting services that would not have been possible otherwise. 79. The selection of an NGO as the implementing agency had advantages and disadvantages with regard to implementation and outcomes. During the first few years of implementation, the ANTP demonstrated a risk averse attitude with regard to not engaging in new activities that could generate costs beyond those budgeted under the administration and operations of the GEF project. Any such costs would have been unbearable due to the ANTP s uncertainty of continuous funding. Therefore, during the processing of the two restructurings, the implementing agency suspended ongoing procurement processes and resumed them only after World Bank concurrence was formalized, which sometimes took several months to be completed, thereby delaying overall implementation. On the other hand, the ANTP showed relative independence and agility in redirecting planned activities that were not being properly advanced by participating agencies. The often bureaucratic processes and the strict but necessary controls by the Government auditors, who analyze all procurement processes in each state and municipality, normally prevent government agents from responding quickly to changes in needs and scope for fear of noncompliance with rigid interpretations of procurement laws. Because NGOs are not subject to the same stringent control, the implementing agency was able to follow 24

35 the World Bank s procurement guidelines without additional bureaucracy and was efficient in identifying alternatives that were compatible with the objectives of the project and could be delivered before the closing date. As a result, the project managed to deliver a large number of activities (27 were completed while 29 were planned at appraisal). Finally, the good relationship of the implementing agency with governmental, civil society, and academic groups was key to reaching audiences in all states and amplifying the results of the activities. 80. The multilayer institutional structure contributed to a lack of coordination between the ANTP and the participating cities/metropolitan region and an uneven implementation progress. The complex institutional arrangement was designed to be decentralized. The ANTP was acting as the only executive agency for the project but relied substantially on the inputs of the project s participating agencies. The multilayer institutional structure contributed to a lack of coordination between the ANTP and the participating agencies on World Bank procurement policies and FM processes, which slowed down project implementation in the initial years. In addition, this structure generated uneven implementation progress and initial delays when there were changes in project personnel. 81. The relatively long learning curve of the implementing agency could have been mitigated if the initial operating budget for project management and administration had been higher. The operating budget for project management and administration was predefined at 2.5 percent by the umbrella GEF project, being the same for Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico. This level of funding for the implementing agency may be appropriate for government entities if part of their operational costs are borne by the fixed structure of these entities, such as assigning existing staff temporarily to the project. However, the actual costs are much higher than the 2.5 percent, and this had a significant impact on the Brazil GEF Project. The ANTP initially operated with a smaller team than was necessary with a legitimate concern of exhausting the operating budget before the completion of the project and assuming a financial liability. When the operational budget was increased in the first restructuring by including some of the management costs in the thematic windows (components) and, finally, increasing the operational budget category with the second restructuring, project implementation started to pick up and ended up with a remarkable 79 percent disbursement, despite the strong appreciation of the U.S. dollar that increased resources in local currency by more than 60 percent since the beginning of the project. In the end, the final costs for project management and administration were approximately 7 percent of the total project disbursement, a number that seems reasonable given the size and nature of the operation. 82. The development and implementation of an M&E framework was a challenge, even considering relatively capable participating cities and agencies involved. In some cases, the M&E activities should be embedded in the activities by assigning sufficient funding from the beginning of the project. It is also advisable that indicators, such as potential emissions reduction, be included in the terms of reference of each activity and required as an output from every consulting contract. In other cases, however, it should be noted that an ambitious M&E program is sometimes more costly than the project as a whole, especially when gathering basic data from typical sources that are not already part of the government activities or in the frequency required. As an example, collecting basic data for planning purposes, known as Freight OD surveys, might cost around US$6 million for a city like São Paulo. Moreover, most 25

36 of the expected results of these projects are likely to have long-term results that are not easily quantifiable. 83. The agenda of sustainable urban transport continues to be critical if overall emissions in transport and GEF operations are key to move the sustainable agenda forward. Although some of the initiatives, such as the bike paths, have limited impacts with regard to emissions savings in the short term, their strength relies on the demonstrative effects. More comprehensive policies such as prioritizing public transport and NMT in the city as a whole, undertaken by some of the participating cities, although also presenting modest results in emissions savings in the short term, set an initial trend that will have effects in urban development in 10 to 30 years, by improving quality of service of less-pollutant transport modes, thus increasing its attractiveness in relation to private modes of transport. Given that private vehicles are increasingly responsible for emissions from transport, 21 there is still a need to provide support policies that promote disincentives to car use in urban settings, so restrictive measures should be critically analyzed and employed as much as measures to improve quality of alternative modes, such as increasing parking costs, congestion charging, fuel taxation, and others. 7. Comments on Issues Raised by Borrower/Implementing Agencies/Partners (a) Borrower/Implementing Agencies 84. During implementation, the borrower expressed concern about the length of the World Bank processes for restructuring the project. Because of the uncertainty in the approval of extensions, some activities that could have been initiated were put on hold, leaving the borrower little time for conducting the procurement process and finalizing the activities once restructuring was approved. Despite the initial delays, the implementing agency and participating cities accelerated implementation in the last two years. They also expressed dissatisfaction over the second extension, which was requested for 12 months but was granted for only six months. The extension of six more months would have been sufficient to expand the activities, disburse closer to 100 percent, and achieve better results by funding additional activities in the windows (components) of freight transport and TDM and very prominent issues of public transport affordability, financing, and concessions in Brazil. The World Bank acknowledged the borrowers comments but the decision to extend the project further was influenced by the limited supervision budget. (b) Cofinanciers 85. Not applicable. 21 The Faculdade Getulio Vargas (FGV) Report (2015) Panorama e contribuições do Programa STAQ para as Iniciativas de Transporte Sustentável no Brasil estimates that car trips are responsible for around 60 percent and 63 percent of emissions from transport in São Paulo and Belo Horizonte, respectively. 26

37 Annex 1. Project Costs and Financing (a) Project Cost by Component (Comparison of Cost Estimate by Appraisal and Actuals in Percentages) Window/City Original by Appraisal (US$) Percentage by Appraisal Percentage Actuals Window (Component) 1 - Freight transport São Paulo (Municipality) 1,250, Subtotal 1,250, Window (Component) 2 - Better coordination and integration of transport and land-use planning and environmental management Belo Horizonte 600, Curitiba 7 São Paulo 8 Subtotal 600, Window (Component) 3 - Enhancement of public transport Belo Horizonte 300, Curitiba 900, São Paulo 1,299, Subtotal 2,499, Window (Component) 4 - Nonmotorized transport Belo Horizonte 1,200, Curitiba 300, Subtotal 1,500, Window (Component) 5 - Transport Demand Management (TDM) Belo Horizonte 680, Curitiba 962, São Paulo (Municipality) 850, Subtotal 2,492, Window (Component) 6 - Project administration ANTP 191, Subtotal 191, Total 8,532, Note: *Estimates from the ANTP data. (b) Financing (in US$, millions equivalent) Appraisal Estimate (US$, millions) Actual/ Lastest Estimate Percentage of Appraisal Borrower 16,972,000 22,835, GEF 8,532,000 6,752,

38 (c) Financing by City (in US$, millions) (GEF Only) Cities Appraisal Estimate (US$, millions) Actual/Lastest Estimate Percentage of Appraisal Belo Horizonte 2,780,000 1,580, Curitiba 2,162,000 1,609, São Paulo 3,399,000 2,235, ANTP 191, , Designated account 897,237 Total 8,532,000 6,752,

39 Annex 2. Outputs by Component Window (Component) 1. Freight transport Output as at Appraisal Technical study to analyze freight movements in the city and assess the routes and most adequate mix of vehicles (trucks) Technical study to evaluate the implementation of freight transfer and distribution centers, as well as possible strategic locations for a pilot center, allowing for further restrictions of freight movement and entry of certain vehicles in certain parts of the city or metropolitan regions Market study to evaluate the potential for rationalizing freight movements taking into account the necessities of distributors, shop location, and consumers City SP SP SP At Appraisal Intermediate Outcome Comprehensive studies analyzing the impacts and providing recommendations on improving fuel efficiency and reducing GHG emissions from freight transport within urban areas Project Outcome Indicators (2) Increase in number of NMT trips within intervened areas compared to area baseline (3) Decrease of CO 2 equivalent tons emitted by ground transport in intervened corridors as derived by improvements in modal split and (4) Number of cities that are integrating environment and climate change components into urban transport and land-use master plans and studies, which include development of regulatory and financial frameworks that foster the development of sustainable transport systems at Output Achieved Development of methodology for the Freight OD survey of the city of SP Data collection for the Freight OD survey of the city of SP Pilot night delivery program - analysis and assessment of outcomes City SP SP SP By Closing Date Intermediate Outcome The project was directly financed by this grant and is the first stage to plan for less energy-intensive freight transport. The Government is now following up on the next steps, which involve developing a model to test comprehensive policies. The pilot night delivery program was a multistakeholder effort, led by the Government. The grant financed the evaluation of the program, developed by the University of São Paulo. The pilot looked at the Project Outcome Promising. The actual decrease of CO 2 emissions was not achieved in the time frame of the project, but the first step toward a comprehensive framework was taken. Very positive. The night delivery pilot decreased total travel times by 43% and is highly dependent on the supply chain characteristics. The decrease in CO 2 equivalent tons emitted by ground transport in the intervened Observations The likelihood of continuation is substantial, given the strong participation of stakeholders throughout the process. Limited budget for the agenda, on the other hand, might limit the Government s capacity to follow up on the agenda. The likelihood of continuation is high, given the successful pilot implementation. 29

40 Output as at Appraisal Define a regulatory framework to promote more efficient and cleaner freight transport in the metropolitan area Note: SP = São Paulo. City At Appraisal Intermediate Outcome Project Outcome Indicators local and national levels Output Achieved City By Closing Date Intermediate Outcome overall benefits and costs of the project, defining a framework to expand the policy and make it permanent. SP Project Outcome corridors was not calculated directly, but is in the same order of the reduction in travel times. Observations The city government has given continuity to this agenda and is developing alternatives for regulatory frameworks, both in relation to night deliveries and the use of consolidation centers in business areas that can benefit from the current bike infrastructure for the last-mile delivery. Window (Component) 2. Better coordination and integration of transport and land-use planning and environmental management Output as at Appraisal City At Appraisal Intermediate Outcome Project Outcome Indicators Output Achieved 30 City By Closing Date Intermediate Outcome Project Outcome Observations Elaboration of a master BH Number of cities with (2) Increase in TOD - Anel BH, The TOD Anel is a Promising in the Each city is in a

41 At Appraisal By Closing Date Output as at Appraisal City Intermediate Outcome Project Outcome Indicators Output Achieved City Intermediate Outcome Project Outcome Observations plan for urban mobility that is integrated with the environmental and social policies; redefinition of legal framework for urban mobility land-use policies and regulations designed/proposed that create incentives for more efficient and sustainable transportoriented development number of NMT trips within intervened areas compared to area baseline (3) Decrease of CO 2 equivalent tons emitted by ground transport in intervened corridors as derived by improvements in modal split (4) Number of cities that are integrating environment and climate change components into urban transport and land-use master plans and studies, which include development of regulatory and financial frameworks that foster the development of sustainable transport systems at local and national levels Rodoviário, Environmental and Socioeconomic Vulnerability Study for the city of CUR CUR, SP, and Rio de Janeiro comprehensive urban development plan around a main mass transit system and includes the basic design and alternatives analysis considering social, environmental, and financial aspects of each alternative. The socioeconomic and environmental vulnerability study for CUR merges the databases from both areas and defines the vulnerable areas for which accessibility to services is deficient and environmental risk is high. With that, it defines priority areas to improve transport systems or promote densification. Both studies were directly financed by the grant. long term. TOD, when implemented, has the potential to increase the participation of public transport, therefore generating a decrease in emissions when compared to urban development that benefits private cars. The potential benefits of these specific projects were not calculated. The grant directly financed initiatives in BH and CUR. The initiatives in SP and Rio de Janeiro were financed under other World Bank cofinanced activities. All four cities have incorporated landuse plans, policies, and regulations that create incentives for more efficient and different stage of these policies. SP was the pioneer in this approach and has managed to develop a few initiatives, although slowly. BH and CUR also have a historic approach integrating transport and land use, and have managed to direct growth based on transport. Both cities, however, face higher inequality between lower- and upperincome deciles, indicating a need to improve planning instruments by including pro-poor policies. Rio de Janeiro is in its first stage of development, and the World Bank is financing capacity building and designs to support the agenda. 31

42 At Appraisal By Closing Date Output as at Appraisal City Intermediate Outcome Project Outcome Indicators Output Achieved Capacity building for a graduate professional course on transport and environment for mobility planners in CUR Technical urban planning week of Instituto de Pesquisa e Planejamento Urbano de Curitiba The ANTP sustainable mobility online course City CUR CUR 135 Cities in BRAZIL please refer to list at the end of this annex Intermediate Outcome Course taken by the agencies staff, directly financed by the grant One-week seminar, with specialists from several institutions, to discuss the future of mobility in CUR, partially financed by the grant Online course updated to include contents of the LUTP concept. The grant financed scholarship to more than 600 students. More than 600 participants from 24 different states and 135 cities, coming from private agencies, public sector, and Project Outcome sustainable transport-oriented development. Barriers removed. Improved capacity in developing mobility plans that include sustainable development concepts Observations Brazil s National Urban Mobility Law, adopted in April 2012, mandates that all Brazilian cities with a population over 20,000 (more than 1,600 cities) prepare and present an urban mobility plan to the Ministry of Cities by Low capacity in urban planning has been identified as a critical bottleneck in the development of these mobility plans and to translate these into executable projects. As a result, the project identified the need to invest in these activities to disseminate the concepts of sustainable mobility into the public and private 32

43 At Appraisal By Closing Date Output as at Appraisal Study the potential of public-private partnerships and other financing mechanisms to provide resources for public transport and NMT infrastructure investments Study the land value capture mechanism Certificates of potential additional construction involve the private sector in infrastructural investments in transport City BH Intermediate Outcome Project Outcome Indicators BH Output Achieved The ANTP Conference (2015) Analysis of governance and concession models for transit systems in SP City 2000 participa nts from BRAZIL SP Intermediate Outcome academia, completed the training as of December Around 80% of the participants were from medium- and high-level management. The grant financed a stand to disseminate the program results. The study includes a literature revision of current concession models, including international experiences, legislation adequacy, fiscal impacts of different schemes, risks, and impacts on competition. This study was directly financed by the grant. Project Outcome Dissemination of the program results Promising. The application of this analysis into the current concession models allows for a more efficient and sustainable transport system, which affects quality of service and ultimately usage. Observations sectors and academia. This study benefits other client cities when renegotiating or rebidding the bus concessions and raises critical points in maintaining quality of service and sustainability of systems. 33

44 Note: BH = Belo Horizonte; CUR = Curitiba; SP = São Paulo. Window (Component) 3. Enhancement of public transport Output as at Appraisal Redesign of the current urban transport network based on the master plan for sustainable urban mobility, rationalizing the existing network, increasing modal and intermodal integration, reducing overlaps, increasing the mobility in the urban transport system, and so on. Engineering designs and implementation of control and communication technology for the bus corridor - Antônio Carlos. City BH BH At Appraisal Intermediate Outcome (a) Number of initiatives to improve public transport operations (segregated or nonsegregated) through modernizing operations framework or complementary infrastructure (b) Number of cities preparing or implementing specific measures to promote interconnectivity between public transport systems and other modes of transport Project Outcome Indicators (1) Increase in number of trips made by public transportation within intervened corridors compared to corridor baseline (2) Increase in number of NMT trips within intervened areas compared to area baseline and (3) Decrease of CO 2 equivalent tons emitted by ground transport in intervened corridors as derived by improvements in modal split Output Achieved Mobility observatory Measuring quality of mobility in selected corridors in SP City BH SP By Closing Date Intermediate Outcome The grant directly financed the mobility observatory, which comprises the integration of transport and urban development data into an open platform Development of a methodology to measure quality of mobility and the measurement of five selected corridors. This study was directly financed by the grant. Project Outcome Barriers removed. The mobility observatory increases transparency and competition and allows for more public participation in the decisions. Barriers removed. The methodology is a first step to incorporate a systemic measurement of quality that includes all users of the system pedestrians (including special needs), bicycles, motorcycles, cars, Observations 34

45 Output as at Appraisal City At Appraisal Intermediate Outcome Project Outcome Indicators Output Achieved City By Closing Date Intermediate Outcome Project Outcome and buses and allows for the design of complete streets. Observations Improvements of busway infrastructure and in operations; restore sidewalks; improve accessibility to tube stations, especially people with special needs BH Data analysis and monitoring of the transit system in SP SP Development of a management system for bus operations through the definitions of quality of service indicators. The indicators are automatically calculated with big data (GPS and fare card data), and allow for online monitoring of the system, as well as for obtaining data for system rationalization purposes. This study was directly financed by the grant. Barriers removed. The analysis of the data will allow for the city to better enforce service quality, improve system efficiency through route replanning and system optimization, and to better integrate the bus system to the other mass transit systems. This has implications for system fiscal sustainability and quality of service, thus attractive from the user perspective. This methodology takes advantage of the large and growing availability of data from Intelligent transport system equipment from private operators to monitor service quality with little resources, and is an invaluable tool for regulatory agencies. 35

46 Output as at Appraisal Preparation of a management program to monitor the implementation of the BRT system Program to promote the image of the public transport system, based on the priorities and expectations of the users, and the capacity and willingness to pay of users City BH At Appraisal Intermediate Outcome Project Outcome Indicators Output Achieved Local feeder bus networks and structural services for SP transit system Development of methodology for inventory, environmental risk assessment, and evaluation for low- and mediumcapacity transport systems in the SP metropolitan region City SP SP metropolitan region By Closing Date Intermediate Outcome Development of an optimized bus network that promotes a reorganization of bus routes into feeder polygons and structural system, allowing for a more sustainable and efficient transport system that promotes local access by NMT. The development of the methodology was the first step to measure the effects of transport policies associated with the bus systems. This study was directly financed by the grant. BH Project Outcome Barriers removed. The restructuring of the bus operations into the polygon feeder system can improve system efficiency, reduce wait times, and improve speeds and service quality. Barriers removed. This study improved the capacity of the Government to measure the environmental impacts of the lowand mediumcapacity systems. Observations 36

47 Output as at Appraisal Research to understand users preferences and valuation of different trip aspects Evaluation of the willingness and capacity to pay to use the public transport system, based on the users preferences City At Appraisal Intermediate Outcome Project Outcome Indicators Output Achieved City By Closing Date Intermediate Outcome BH BH Update of the negative externalities of different transport modes Study case for SP, methodol ogy for all cities The study updates the externality costs of transportation to support economic analysis of transport projects. The value of life, value of travel time savings, cost of GHG emissions, and cost of pollution (including noise) were updated based on current values adequate to the local context. The total cost of mobility externalities in Brazil was estimated to be 6.27% of the gross national product, with road accidents and travel time costs being responsible for 2.8% and 2.7%, respectively. Project Outcome Barriers removed. This study improves the capacity of the Government for better strategic planning of the sector and estimation of externalities including GHG emissions using updated methodology and data. Observations 37

48 Output as at Appraisal Adjustments to the road plan; link to public transport corridor Reallocation, rehabilitation, and adaptation of bus stops Pavement to integrate train, metro, and bus transport Studies on bike paths connections. City BH BH BH CUR At Appraisal Intermediate Outcome Project Outcome Indicators Output Achieved An update of the trip generation functions and parameters of mobility by mode in Brazil Development of basic designs for the restructuring of the road ring system of BH central area Microsimulation software and training Executive designs for improved CUR BRT tube stations City Study case for SP, methodol ogy for all cities BH BH CUR By Closing Date Intermediate Outcome The study updates the trip generation functions that are the basic input for planning purposes. Microsimulation studies and basic designs for the adaptation of the road ring to improve BRT traffic flows; capacity building of the BH agency staff on microsimulation Development of detailed designs for the renewal of CUR tube stations to adapt to current environmental conditions, use of renewable resources, and improvement of Project Outcome Promising. The study, if implemented, will improve traffic flows for the BRT system, decreasing wait times, improving service reliability, and improving perceptions of quality from the user perspective. The training allowed for the transport agency to develop other microsimulation studies and alternatives. Promising. The improvement in the quality of stations has a direct effect on the user perception of quality and thus the attractiveness of the system. Observations 38

49 Output as at Appraisal City At Appraisal Intermediate Outcome Central control system for high-capacity public transportation corridors: functional definition, SP implementation plan, and preparation of bidding documents Note: BH = Belo Horizonte; CUR = Curitiba; SP = São Paulo. Project Outcome Indicators Window (Component) 4. Nonmotorized transport Output Achieved These studies were included under Window (Component) 4 City By Closing Date Intermediate Outcome quality and comfort to the user. This study was directly financed by the grant. Project Outcome Observations At Appraisal Output as at Appraisal City Intermediate Outcome Technical assistance for design of pedestrian circulation plan; works to implement the pedestrian circulation plan BH (a) Number of NMT initiatives (km or facilities) including pedestrian, bikeway, and ancillary infrastructure built Project Outcome Indicators (2) Increase in number of NMT trips within intervened areas compared to area baseline (3) Decrease of CO 2 equivalent tons emitted by ground transport in intervened corridors as derived by improvements in modal split Output Achieved Mobility on Foot Seminar City 600 partici - pants from 12 different states By Closing Date Intermediate Outcome The grant financed a four-day learning event on pedestrian mobility that included 600 participants from 12 states in Brazil and 37 cities (80 participants through video streaming) from the three levels of government, academia, and civil society. Project Outcome Barriers removed. Improved awareness of the role of pedestrian infrastructure needs and of the tools and methodologies to measure impacts of increased on-foot mobility on health, quality of life, and environmental sustainability of cities. 39

50 At Appraisal Output as at Appraisal City Intermediate Outcome Studying of a cycling network for the whole city; designs and works to implement the cycling paths in the northern part of the city CUR (a) Higher awareness of citizens on the importance of NMT and its role in reducing emissions and improving efficiency of the transport system Project Outcome Indicators Output Achieved Bicycle master plan and executive design of bicycle network in CUR City CUR By Closing Date Intermediate Outcome Project Outcome Positive results. The potential CO 2 savings associated with this activity are of CO 2 equivalent tons per day, as a result of improvements in modal split. Revitalization and enlargement of sidewalks - João Negrão/XV de Novembro/Conselheiro Laurindo Preparation of communication plan and promotion of bike use Studies for bicycle lane on the road section Paripe Periperi (32 km) Design and implementation of a pilot bikeway; pilot bike parking facilities CUR CUR CUR BH (a) Number of NMT initiatives (km or facilities) including pedestrian, bikeway, and ancillary infrastructure built (b) Number of NMT initiatives (km or facilities) including pedestrian, bikeway, and ancillary infrastructure built (a) Number of NMT initiatives (km or facilities) including pedestrian, bikeway, and ancillary infrastructure built (a) Number of NMT initiatives (km or facilities) including pedestrian, bikeway, and ancillary infrastructure built Civil works for Boqueirão Corridor (Cecília Meirelles link) Civil works for Boqueirão Corridor (Euclides Bandeira link) Executive designs for bicycle paths - Venda Nova e Barreiro Civil works for Venda Nova and Barreiro bicycle paths CUR CUR BH BH The grant directly financed three facilities (two in BH and one in CUR). The World Bank has supported the SP implementation of more than 400 km of bike lanes and a bike-sharing scheme. Positive results. The CO 2 savings associated with this activity are of CO 2 equivalent tons per day, as a result of improvements in modal split. Positive results. The CO 2 savings associated with this activity are of CO 2 equivalent tons per day, as a result of improvements in modal split. Note: BH = Belo Horizonte; CUR = Curitiba; SP = São Paulo. 40

51 Window (Component) 5. Transport Demand Management (TDM) Output as at Appraisal Development of an analysis tool to evaluate TDM projects/policies for city center Identification and implementation of TDM pilot project with focus on ITS applications Identification and implementation of TDM pilot project Development of sustainable inventory of GHGs for transport sector at city level City BH CU SP CU At Appraisal Intermediate Outcome (a) Number of traffic management policies or plans developed or in place Project Outcome Indicators (2) Increase in number of NMT trips within intervened areas compared to area baseline (3) Decrease of CO 2 equivalent tons emitted by ground transport in intervened corridors as derived by improvements in modal split Note: BH = Belo Horizonte; CUR = Curitiba; SP = São Paulo. Output Achieved Corporate Mobility Program - Berrini Emissions inventory for SP By Closing Date City Intermediate Outcome Project Outcome Observations SP SP This pilot program was not directly financed by this grant but was supported by the World Bank team, in partnership with World Resources Institute. The project consisted of a corporate mobility program directed to companies of one of the most congested business centers in the city of SP. The project worked with main companies to offer alternatives to car access and decrease car trips to the area, by establishing a range of services such as dedicated bus services, full subsidy of public transport, telework arrangements, bicycle, and carpool programs. Development of an inventory of emissions for the city of SP. The energy sector is responsible for 95% of the emissions; 75% of those are related to transport (46% freight, 46% passenger, and the remaining aviation). Positive results. There was a 6% reduction in the participation of private car mode to the office. The main growth occurred in the specialized private bus services, paid by the employer. Barriers removed. Improved awareness of the importance of the transport sector in emissions. The cost of implementing such projects is low and the results are surprisingly good. However, promoting behavior change requires continuous interventions to sustain the results. 41

52 List of participating cities in the ANTP sustainable mobility online course: City State City (cont.) State (cont.) Água Boa MT Juazeiro BA Alegrete RS Londrina PR Anápolis GO Macapá AP Aquiraz CE Maceió AL Aracaju SE Mairiporã SP Araucária PR Manaus AM Balneário Camboriú SC Maringá PR Barueri SP Mogi das Cruzes SP Bauru SP Mogi Guaçu SP Belém PA Montes Claros MG Belford Roxo RJ Muriaé MG Belo Horizonte MG Natal RN Bento Gonçalves RS Niquelândia GO Betim MG Niterói RJ Blumenau SC Nova Friburgo RJ Boa Vista RR Nova Odessa SP Brasília DF Olinda PE Cabo Frio RJ Osasco SP Caçapava SP Palhoça SC Cachoeirinha RS Palmas TO Cachoeiro de Itapemirim ES Pará de Minas MG Cajamar SP Pelotas RS Camaçari BA Petrolina PE Campina Grande PB Pindamonhangaba SP Campinas SP Piracicaba SP Campo Grande MS Pomerode SC Campos dos Goytacazes RJ Ponta Grossa PR Canoas RS Porto Alegre RS Caruaru PE Porto Seguro BA Cascavel PR Pouso Alegre MG Chapecó sc Praia Grande SP Contagem MG Presidente Prudente SP Corumbá MS Recife PE Criciúma SC Ribeirão Preto SP Cubatão SP Rio das Ostras RJ Cuiabá MT Rio de Janeiro RJ Curitiba PR Rio do Sul SC Diadema SP Salvador BA Divinópolis MG Santa Bárbara d'oeste SP 42

53 City State City (cont.) State (cont.) Duque de Caxias RJ Santa Rita PB Embu das Artes SP Santa Rita do Sapucaí MG Embu-Guaçu SP Santo André SP Erechim RS Santo Antônio da Patrulha RS Ferraz de Vasconcelos sp Santos SP Florianópolis SC São Bernardo do Campo SP Fortaleza CE São Carlos SP Foz do Iguaçu PR São Francisco do Sul SC Franca SP São Gonçalo RJ Goiânia GO São José do Rio Preto SP Guabiruba SC São José dos Campos SP Guarapuava PR São Leopoldo RS Guarujá SP São Luís MA Hortolândia SP São Paulo SP Imbituba SC Senador Canedo GO Indaial SC Sorocaba SP Itabuba BA Sumaré SP Itajaí SC Teresina PI Itajubá MG Timon MA Itanhaém SP Três Pontas MG Itapetininga SP Ubatuba SP Itaquaquecetuba SP Uberlândia MG Itatiaia RJ Uruaçu GO Itu SP Viamão RS Jacareí SP Vila Velha ES Jaraguá do Sul SC Vitória ES Jataí GO Vitória da Conquista BA João Pessoa PB Xanxerê SC Joinville SC 43

54 Annex 3. Economic and Financial Analysis Introduction 1. The PAD selected the cost-effectiveness of the indirect impacts of the GEF operation as the primary indicator for the purpose of preliminary economic analysis of the proposed GEF operation s investment. This indicator was considered appropriate at the stage of appraisal because the primary emphasis of the proposed GEF operation is to enable further action to be taken by the cities and state governments. While some direct investments are occurring under the program windows (components), for example in nonmotorized facilities or facilities to coordinate intermodal movements, these were considered primarily demonstrative to show what kinds of outcomes were feasible. 2. The analysis proposed in the PAD, therefore, does not consider the immediate program outcomes that is, the reduction or elimination of barriers that impede adoption of policies that lead to structural reductions in CO 2 emissions from the sector but rather, the indirect outcomes that will occur if the policies impeded by the barriers addressed by the program do, indeed, become adopted within a reasonable time frame following the completion of this program. Such an analysis assumes that these more substantive measures will indeed be effective. Emission Reduction Assessment for the ICR 3. The project components involved freight transport management, public transport promotion, integration of land-use planning, NMT development, and TDM. The interventions are expected to reduce GHG emissions by more efficient freight transport, shifting travelers from private vehicles to public transport as well as nonmotorized travel mode. 4. Direct impacts of the project were calculated for the bicycle infrastructure. The Transportation Emissions Evaluation Model for Projects - TEEMP methodology was used to calculate benefits from the projects listed below. This estimate was performed by FGV and published in the report (2015) Panorama e contribuições do Programa STAQ para as Iniciativas de Transporte Sustentável no Brasil. (a) For Curitiba, the following projects were considered: design for the 37 km renovation of cycle infrastructure, implementation of 2.3 km of Corredor Boqueirão - Ramal Cecília Meirelles, and implementation of 2.1 km of Corredor Boqueirão - Ramal Euclides Bandeira. (b) For Belo Horizonte, implementation of 12 km of cycle lanes in Venda Nova and Barreiro. 5. The summary of the inputs can be found in the Table

55 Table 3.1. TEEMP Inputs for Belo Horizonte and Curitiba Cycle Lanes Item Sub-Item B01 B07 B11 Av. Augusto dos anjos Av. Elias Antônio Issa Av. João Samaha Av. Ministro Oliveira Av. Senador Levindo Coelho 1 Av. Senador Levindo Coelho 1 Av. Waldyr Soeiro Emrich Rua Farm. Raul Machado Length (km): Data Width (m): [6] What kind of fully separated bike track x [1] x [1] x [1] x x x [1] Facility is painted bike lane x x x x x [1] Planned? mixed lane with pedestrians What is the quality good x x x x x x x of the bike fair/average x x x x surface? poor Network Connectivity Meterology and Climate Friendliness of Design (enter %) Bike parking Topography Availability of lighting Active Traffic Calming Measures connects to the heart activity center x x x x x x[5] x x x[5] x[5] x[5] moderate demand corridor isolated from high demand corridors % of year when cycling is uncomfortable due to weather 51% 51% 51% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% degree to which cycle ways have shade/exposure protection 25% 9% 12% 50% 70% 50% 50% 70% 70% 70% 30% safe bike parking available x x few or no safe bike parking available x x x x x x x x x flat x x x x x x x rolling x x x hilly x availability along the lanes x x x x x x x x x x x not available available x x [2] x [2] x [3] x [3] x [3] x [3] x [3] x [3] x [3] x [3] not available 45

56 Priority at Junctions Integration with Public Transport Other Soft Measures available x x x x x x x x x x x not available integration with Public Transport x[4] x[4] x[4] x[4] x[4] x[4] x[4] x[4] no integration with Public Transport x x x such as exclusive bike policies, sympathetic traffic laws, educational campaigns incentivizing bike priority x x x x x x x x x x x in the roads no additional bike policies Note: [1]: Predominantly,[2]: Zone 40, elevated lanes, [3]: traffic redcutors and islands for pedestrian crossings, [4]: partial integration in specific times and days [5]: connects to BRT, [6]: maximum lenght, variable extracted from FGV Report (2015) Panorama e contribuições do Programa STAQ para as Iniciativas de Transporte Sustentável no Brasil. 46

57 6. The bicycle path implemented in Curitiba has generated a reduction of ton of CO 2 per day, while the full renovation plan, if fully implemented, will have an impact of reduction of ton of CO 2 per day. The Curitiba project has generated an impact of reduction of ton of CO 2 per day. The annualized costs, funding, and cost-effectiveness of the measures is presented in table 3.2. Project Table 3.2. Cost-effectiveness of Belo Horizonte and Curitiba Projects Total Funding (US$) Annual CO 2 Emission Reduction (ton) Cost Effectiveness (US$/ton) Curitiba 1,022,516 3, Belo Horizonte 1,014,317 8, It is important to highlight that, according to the FGV study, these projects have a low participation on the overall estimates of emissions on urban transport (approximately 0.83 percent in Belo Horizonte, for instance). Moreover, there is an overall trend of growth in the participation of private vehicles in the mode share, with emissions having increased by 19 percent in Curitiba from 2007 to In Belo Horizonte, the scenario is even more critical, with private vehicles having increased their share in emissions by 119 percent from 2002 to Private vehicles represent approximately 60 percent of the share in emissions in these two cities. Increasing motorization rates in the three participating cities, a general trend as can be observed in table 3.3, reinforces the need for more comprehensive measures to contain car usage growth and promote modal shift. Table 3.3. Annual Growth Rate between 2009 and 2013 (the ANTP) Curitiba (%) Belo Horizonte (%) São Paulo (%) Fortaleza (%) Salvador (%) Natal (%) Bus travel Private vehicle fleet Motorcycle Economic Analysis of the São Paulo Bus Corridors Program 8. In 2013, the city of São Paulo began to implement and enforce more than 400 km of new dedicated bus lanes and 400 km of new bike lanes or paths. This program has resulted in a small increase in ridership, as seen in Figure 3.1, and an improvement in speeds of 9.13 percent Arbex et al (2016) Avaliação das mudanças nas velocidades das linhas de ônibus da cidade de São Paulo após a implantação de faixas exclusivas através da análise de dados de GPS. Revista Transportes. In press. 47

58 Figure 3.1. Increase in Ridership in the SP Structural System (million pax/year) 9. An economic analysis was carried out to test the impact of this new policy. The methodology consisted of comparing the situation with and without the project and quantifying the benefits due to time savings for bus users. Operating and road maintenance costs were conservatively considered to have remained constant. The assumption is that a possible decrease in costs for these items could be compensated by increased enforcement necessary to guarantee compliance. Costs included in the analysis refer to a likely reduction in car speeds and an increase in accidents (negative externality) as a result of higher speeds and pedestrian unawareness of the bus lanes, which has been mitigated and is likely to return to before infrastructure levels. Investments considered include only road signaling. 10. Values of travel time savings were assumed to be 33 percent of the average hourly income updated to 2016 (for home-to-work trips and other purposes). A 160 percent factor was applied in the value of time for business trips. It was also assumed that car users had a 2.38 higher value of time than bus users. 23 Results are presented in table 3.4. Table 3.4. Value of Time Distribution (US$) Travel Purpose Bus Car Home-to-work Business Other The trip distribution by purpose is shown in table 3.5. Table 3.5. Travel Purpose Distribution (%) Travel Purpose Bus Car Home-to-work As a reference, see the World Bank s Quito Metro Line One Project. 48