Technical, Economic and Environmental Aspects of Power-to-Liquid-fuels. Statement
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1 Greener Skies Ahead, 26. Oktober 2017 Technical, Economic and Environmental Aspects of Power-to-Liquid-fuels Statement Dr. Werner Zittel 1,2 Dipl.-Ing. Patrick Schmidt 2 1 Ludwig-Bölkow-Foundation Ottobrunn, zittel@ludwig-boelkow-stiftung.org 2 Ludwig-Bölkow-Systemtechnik GmbH Ottobrunn, patrick.schmidt@lbst.de
2 Greener Skies Ahead, 26. Oktober 2017 Content Climate Change Technical Options Environmental Side Effects Economic Aspects Summary
3 Atmospheric CO 2 -Concentration (Model and Data) 400 ppm Model simulation Exp. Data Mauna Loa Conclusion: The CO 2 concentration in 2015 was almost as high as the trend between already indicated 300 Model simulation of CO Historical Data: Limits to Growth, D. Meadows et al., 1972
4 GHG Emissions and Contribution from (Air) Transport Gt CO 2 -eq/a 70 Baseline Scenario GHG (all gases, without high altitude impact) 30 CO 2 Emissions Baseline Scenario CO 2 Emissions, Air Transport Data: Scenario IPCC, 5th Assessment Report 2013 Scenario Air Transport, DLR/Airbus Global Market Forecast with Extrapolation to 2050 Simplified Emission Calculation Air Transport, LBST 2014
5 GHG Emissions and Contribution from (Air) Transport Gt CO 2 -eq/a 70 Baseline Scenario GHG (all gases, without high altitude impact) 30 CO 2 Emissions Baseline Scenario CO 2 -eq Emissions, Air Transport Data: Scenario IPCC, 5th Assessment Report 2013 Scenario Air Transport, DLR/Airbus Global Market Forecast with Extrapolation to 2050 Simplified Emission Calculation Air Transport, LBST 2014
6 GHG Emissions and Contribution from (Air) Transport Gt CO 2 -eq/a 70 Baseline Scenario GHG (all gases, without high altitude impact) CO 2 Emissions 3 C Target 2 C Target 10 Baseline Scenario CO 2 -eq Emissions, Air Transport Data: Scenario IPCC, 5th Assessment Report 2013 Scenario Air Transport, DLR/Airbus Global Market Forecast with Extrapolation to 2050 Simplified Emission Calculation Air Transport, LBST 2014
7 GHG Emissions and Contribution from (Air) Transport Gt CO 2 -eq/a 70 Baseline Scenario GHG (all gases, without high altitude impact) CO 2 Emissions 3 C Target 2 C Target 10 CO 2 -eq Emissions, Air Transport Baseline Scenario Data: Scenario IPCC, 5th Assessment Report 2013 Scenario Air Transport, DLR/Airbus Global Market Forecast with Extrapolation to 2050 Simplified Emission Calculation Air Transport, LBST C Scenario
8 Greener Skies Ahead, 26. Oktober 2016 Technical Options
9 Generic PtL production pathway PtL production via Fischer-Tropsch (FT) or Methanol (MeOH) synthesis. Both pathways can be made drop-in with conventional jet fuel. Fischer-Tropsch synthetic petroleum fuels (SPKs) are ASTM compliant. Image: LBST & BHL, Power-to-Liquids Potentials and Perspectives for the Future Supply of Renewable Aviation Fuel; UBA (ed.), September 2016
10 The three key constituents of PtL jet fuel Source: Ludwig-Bölkow-Systemtechnik GmbH
11 PtL production efficiencies When using renewable electricity for fuel production, efficiency is one aspect among others in the big picture ; a parameter influencing fuel production costs. When using high-temperature electrolysis cells (SOEC), rather high fuel production efficiencies can be achieved. Plant operation is less flexible compared to low-temperature. Image: LBST & BHL, Power-to-Liquids Potentials and Perspectives for the Future Supply of Renewable Aviation Fuel; UBA (ed.), September 2016
12 Greener Skies Ahead, 26. Oktober 2016 Environmental Side Effects
13 PtL environmental performance GHG well-to-wake (g CO2eq /MJ) -70% (heute) bis -99% (Perspektive) => Near net-zero greenhouse gas emissions when using electricity and CO 2 from renewable sources (high-altitude and black-carbon effects not included here; synthetic fuels reduce particulate emissions) Table: LBST & BHL, Power-to-Liquids Potentials and Perspectives for the Future Supply of Renewable Aviation Fuel; UBA (ed.), September 2016
14 PtL environmental performance Land demand ~15% efficiency Solar-to-electricity <1% efficiency Solar-to-biomass Image: LBST & BHL, Power-to-Liquids Potentials and Perspectives for the Future Supply of Renewable Aviation Fuel; UBA (ed.), September 2016
15 PtL environmental performance Water demand Image: LBST & BHL, Power-to-Liquids Potentials and Perspectives for the Future Supply of Renewable Aviation Fuel; UBA (ed.), September 2016
16 Greener Skies Ahead, 26. Oktober 2016 Economic Aspects
17 PtL production costs?* Crude oil: US$/bbl RE electricity: 40 /MWh e Equiv. operation: 3750 h eq /yr * Fuel costs, taxes/levies, other measures to achieve C 17 Image: LBST & BHL, Power-to-Liquids Potentials and Perspectives for the Future Supply of Renewable Aviation Fuel; UBA (ed.), September 2016
18 Summary Aviation is a major future driver for climate-relevant emissions as long as aircrafts use fossil fuels in combustion engines. Energy crops are a dead end solution. (competition with food; low conversion efficiency; huge water consumption) Call for a robust double strategy: Evolutionary drop-in strategy for PtL jet fuel based on renewable electricity production (renewable energy based; high conversion efficiency, low water consumption) Reduction of high-altitude impacts (hybridization/electrification; climate-optimal routes; rethink growth strategies) Under present market conditions PtL will not come by itself. => Supportive framework is needed, ideally competition-neutral
19 Greener Skies Ahead, 26. Oktober 2016 Thank you! Dr. Werner Zittel, Dipl.-Ing. Patrick Schmidt,
20 Greener Skies Ahead, 26. Oktober 2016 Fundus
21 GHG Emissions and Contribution from (Air) Transport Gt CO 2 -eq/a 70 Baseline Scenario GHG (all gases, without high altitude impact) CO 2 Emissions 3 C Target 2 C Target 10 CO 2 -eq Emissions, Air Transport Baseline Scenario Data: Scenario IPCC, 5th Assessment Report 2013 Scenario Air Transport, DLR/Airbus Global Market Forecast with Extrapolation to 2050 Simplified Emission Calculation Air Transport, LBST C Transport Scenario 100% Renewable Drop-in Fu (40% of Transport Emission 15% of total GHG Emissio
22 PtL production Fischer-Tropsch pathway 22 Image: LBST & BHL, Power-to-Liquids Potentials and Perspectives for the Future Supply of Renewable Aviation Fuel; UBA (ed.), September 2016
23 PtL production Methanol pathway 23 Image: LBST & BHL, Power-to-Liquids Potentials and Perspectives for the Future Supply of Renewable Aviation Fuel; UBA (ed.), September 2016
24 Aviation CO 2 mitigation gap (without non-co 2 effects) Assuming 1.38 %/yr efficiency improvement 2050 CO 2 emissions gap to Carbon Neutral Growth 2020 : 1039 Mt CO Mt Kerosene 3400 TWh Kerosene =42% (LT-EL, CO 2 from air): ~9500 TWh e =48% (HT-EL, CO 2 from air): ~8300 TWh e Renewable power production 2016: ~6000 TWh 24 e Image: ICAO Environmental Report 2016
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