The Science, Politics and Economics of Climate Change Chris Tuppen. climate change

Transcription

1 The Science, Politics and Economics of Climate Change Chris Tuppen climate change

2 Yes We Can If there is anyone out there who still doubts that America is a place where all things are possible; who still wonders if the dream of our founders is alive in our time; who still questions the power of our democracy, tonight is your answer.... blah blah... Where we are met with cynicism, and doubt, and those who tell us that we can't, we will respond with that timeless creed that sums up the spirit of a people: Yes We Can.

3 ... or maybe we can t

4 DECC s Book of Revelation DECC's research has revealed that more than 50% of people do not believe climate change will affect them and only about one in five (18%) think it will take effect during their children's lifetimes.

5 Climate Change learning from the past James Croll Scottish Albedo Effect

6 Climate Change learning from the past Milutin Milanković Serbian

7 Climate Change learning from the past Svante Arrhenius Swedish average temperature of earth carbon dioxide level in atmosphere -400, , , ,000 today

8 Jigsaw of Climate Stability

9 A bit more history The Earth is 4.6 billion years old The Dinosaurs died out 65 million years ago Homo Erectus stood up 1.8 million years ago Human civilisation started 10,000 years ago

10 Australia 2009 Feb: Melbourne hits 46.8C breaking previous record by 3C. Murray Darling Basin - river flows 5% of average affects 40% of Australian agriculture. 24 th Sept Giant dust cloud, 1,600 km x 400 km, removes 100,000 tonnes of topsoil per hour. Australia s worst ever bushfires kill 173 and destroy 2,000 homes. Aug: Locations in New South Wales and Queensland break August record by 4-5C. Inflows into Perth s dams since 2001 down by 75% of long-term average.

11 Is the Arctic ready to give up its treasures? Global warming could reveal lucrative reserves of untapped oil, gas and precious metals beneath the ice caps in the near future - but at what environmental cost? By Roger Howard Published: 7:00AM BST 06 Oct 2009

12 Climate Change on a page CO 2 (ppm) Temp ± Consequence 550 ppm +3-4 C Ultimately >50m sea rise 450 ppm + 2 C IPCC target,1m rise by ppm C Today 285 ppm Last 10,000 years 200 ppm - 5 C Ice Age: sea level -120m Happening faster than expected Real risk of tipping Emissions growing at 1-2% pa Need to reduce at 3%pa in OECD Net 4-5% reduction pa to 2050 Investment $100 s b pa to 2020

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14 Crunch time If we fail to act with speed and commitment, the climate crunch, 5C temperature rise will cause a nature crunch, 50% biodiversity loss 1 that will cause a social crunch, >300m people displaced 2 that will make the credit crunch look like child s play. 1. UK Natural History Museum 2. UNDP Human Development Report 2008, for 3-4C temp rise

15 UK Climate Change Act & Low Carbon Transition Plan 80%reduction by 2050 against % reduction by 2020 against % reduction by 2020 against % Renewable Electricity % renewable energy 15% renewable energy by 2020 >30% renewable electricity by % in Scotland UK 2007 actual 2020 target

16 Scottish Renewable Electricity Hydro Other Renewables

17 Climate Change Act & Low Carbon Transition Plan 80%reduction by 2050 against % reduction by 2020 against % reduction by 2020 against % Renewable Electricity % renewable energy 15% renewable energy by 2020 >30% renewable electricity by % in Scotland UK 2007 actual 2020 target Transport 14% cut on 2008 levels by 2020 Energy Efficiency CRC for organisation using > 6000MWhrs electricity pa (~ 0.5m)

18 UK Cost Curve Cost of abatement 2002 real /tco 2 e Abatement required to meet 2030 target /tco 2 e Nuclear Wind on shore Cavity wall Abatement potential MtCO 2 e 400 Lighting Biofuels Condensing boilers Zero carbon homes Solid wall insulation Solar water heating Engine and non engine efficiency (cars) CCS (gas) Source: CBI climate change task force

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20 When to scrap?

21 Optimum Obsolescence Point of Optimum Obsolescence

22 Time to change your notebook? 80 Energy change pa Energy over 50 year (MJ) Manufacture % Distrib 5 0% Use (pa) 810-5% EOL -19 0% Product life years Band of Optimum Obsolescence

23 Time to change your car? 11,000 miles pa -4% pa from DECC low carbon transition plan. Cutting average carbon dioxide emissions from new cars across the EU to 95g/km by 2020, a 40% reduction from 2007 levels Band of Optimum Obsolescence

24 Time to change your car? Energy change pa Manufacture % Distrib 200 0% Use (pa) % EOL % Energy over 50 year (GJ) ,700 miles pa -4% pa from DECC low carbon transition plan. Cutting average carbon dioxide emissions from new cars across the EU to 95g/km by 2020, a 40% reduction from 2007 levels Product life years Band of Optimum Obsolescence

25 How hard to try? % Reduction Global 100 Companies IPCC target

26 World CO 2 e intensity for 80% reduction in emissions 3.00 CO2e / unit GDP (Kg/ ) Reducing at 9.6%pa at current prices But what should a company do?

27 A company should CO 2 e / unit GDP (Kg/ ) Reducing at 9.6%pa at current prices Match or exceed this trend ie its CO 2 e per unit of contribution to GDP* should drop by at least 9.6% pa A company s contribution to GDP is defined as its Value Added, where: Value Added = EBITDA + employee costs = turnover cost of bought in goods and services

28 Setting a Climate Stabilisation Intensity Target Kg CO2e / % reduction target by

29 Climate Stabilisation Intensity Target Ensures emission reductions are sufficient to prevent catastrophic climate change. Links climate protection to economic growth. Green growth for a low carbon future

30 A Massive Transformation The move to a low carbon economy will be as impactful as the industrial revolution Some key technologies wind energy efficiency Electric cars CCS

31 Smart Grid Micro-generation Data Centre Hub Energy Management online Network Carrier Energy Supplier Electricity Gas Smart Meter In-home display Energy Management Services via TV Energy Supplier Precise readings Accurate billing Demand management Competitive tariffs Customer Control of energy Accurate bills Flexible tariffs Greener energy

32 Warm afternoon Solar panel heating up hot water Teenager takes a shower Just installed solar PV Boiling the kettle Baking a cake Son goes to bed

33 What do we know about the future? "I think there is a world market, for maybe five computers" IBM chief Thomas Watson 1943 That s an amazing invention, but who would ever want to use one of them? President Rutherford B. Hayes to Alexander Graham Bell in 1876 Sir William Preece, chief engineer for the British Post Office, 1878: Conditions in America necessitate the use of such instruments more than here. Here we have a superabundance of messengers, errand boys and things of that kind. In early 1980s McKinsey predicted one million cell phones by 2000.