Flood Vulnerability Index

Transcription

1 Flood Vulnerability Index Richard F. Connor Japan Water Forum (JWF) Japan Water Forum (JWF) National Institute for Land and Infrastructure Management, Japan (NILIM) PACIFIC CONSULTANTS Pacific Consultants Co., Ltd (PCKK)

2 Background of the Study Climate Climate Change Change Increasing Increasing Impatcs Impatcs China Jun. 02 Source: AP Philippines Jul. 02 Source: AP Fukuoka, Japan Jul. 03 Source: 1

3 Background of the Study New Orleans, USA Aug. 05 Source: US Army Corps of Engineers 2

4 Purpose of the study Purpose: Flood Vulnerability Index (FVI) enables everyone to assess vulnerability to flood disaster at basin level. FVI can be an important policy-making tool for 1) raising public awareness, 2) assisting governments in priority setting and 3) guiding the international organizations in directions of involvement. 3

5 The Four Key s FVI Climate Hydrogeological Socio-Economic Countermeasure 4

6 These components might be categorized as below FVI s FVI Indicators Climate Hydrogeological Socio-Economic Frequency of heavy rainfall Averaged slope of basin Urbanized area ratio in basin TV penetration rate Population rate under poverty Years sustaining healthy life Population on flood area Literacy rate Infant mortality rate Countermeasure State of non-structural countermeasure Investment amount for structural countermeasure 5

7 Example of quantification of FVI indicator Frequency of heavy rainfall Data definition: The number of days of heavy rainfall with more than 100mm/day in the basin in a year Data collection Fig. 13,000 rainfall observation points Data from NOAA Daily rainfall 13,000 observation points the past 11 years Downloaded from the NOAA website ( 6

8 FVI equation for the major international river basins Climate Hydrogeological Socio-Economic Countermeasure FVI = C + H + S M = ( 3 I 1) + (3 I2 + I3) + ( I4 I5 + I6 I7 + I8 + I9) ( I10 + I11) Frequency of heavy rainfall (more than 100mm/day) Averaged slope of basin Urbanized area ratio in basin TV penetration rate Literacy rate Populati on rate under poverty Years sustaining healthy life Population in flood area Infant mortality rate Investment amount for structural countermeasure State of nonstructural countermeasure 7

9 FVI map of the major international river basins (114 basins) The lower the value, the better. FVI scores are higher in South Asia and Africa. 8

10 FVI in South Asia Irrawaddy Brahmaputra Yangtze Ganges Red River Salween Mekong 9

11 Rader Chart of FVI s 10

12 Rader Chart of FVI s South Asia Climate 1.00 Africa Climate Counterm easure Hydrological Counterm easure 0.00 Hydrological Socio-Econom y Europe Socio-Econom y Climate 1.00 South America Climate Counterm easure 0.00 Hydrological Counterm easure 0.00 Hydrological Socio-Econom y Socio-Econom y 11

13 Potential Applications 1. Assess flood vulnerability in any basin in the world by using easily collectable data 2. Better understand the complex nature of vulnerability 3. Compare basins and see how different factors influence vulnerability 4. To serve as a useful tool in considering long-term flood management policy 12

14 Application of Flood Vulnerability Index in the Philippines Maria Catalina E. Cabral, Ph.D. OIC-Director, Planning Service Department of Public Works and Highways, The Philippines PACIFIC CONSULTANTS Japan Water Forum (JWF) Department of Public Works and Highways, The Philippines (DPWH) National Institute for Land and Infrastructure Management, Japan (NILIM) Pacific Consultants Co., Ltd (PCKK)

15 Flood Disasters in The Philippines Ormoc City Nov. 91 Metro Manila Philippines Jul. 02 Source: Water-Related disaster Threats in the Philippines by Resito V. David of FCSEC, DPWH. Source: AP 14

16 Problems to be solved in the field of flood control in The Philippines FVI is is here to to Flood Disasters solve the problem! The more vulnerable basins can be distinguished. don t know which basins are more vulnerable than the others Raising public awareness Luck of public awareness Reasonable allocation of of budget is is difficult. possible. More Less budget for can flood be allocated control project for flood control. The negative linkage between poverty and flood disaster will Increase be cut off. in poverty seriously 15

17 Flood Vulnerability Index applied for the river basins in The Philippines The FVI methodology was simply applied for the 18 major river basins in The Philippines. 16

18 FVI Indicators FVI s Climate Hydrogeological FVI Indicators Frequency of of heavy rainfall Averaged slope of basin Urbanized area ratio in basin The data defined especially from the Philippines Socio-Economic Countermeasure TV TV penetration rate Population rate under poverty Years sustaining healthy life life Population on on flood area State of of non-structural countermeasure Literacy rate Infant mortality rate Investment amount for for structural countermeasure Most of the data source are from DPWH, PAGASA and NSO. 17

19 FVI FVI equation for the major river basins in The Philippines Climate = w C c Hydrogeological + w w h m H M Countermeasure Socio-Economic + w S s = Tropical cyclone passage 5-year average frequency 3 I 1 State of structural countermeasure State of nonstructural countermeasure Averaged slope of basin + 2 Highly urban and capital city area ratio in basin 11 3 l l= 2 + n= I I n Literacy rate Infant mortality rate 9 m= 4 Years sustaining healthy life TV penetration rate 6 I m Population rate under poverty Population density in basin 18

20 FVI assessment result Abulog Abra The FVI result shows the significant correlation between FVI and the annual casualties of The lower the value, the better. Davao 19

21 The most vulnerable river basins The three basins (Abra, Abulog and Davao) are assessed as the most vulnerable to flood disaster. Climate Abra basin and Abulog basin are the most vulnerable in terms of Climate and Countermeasure. Countermeasure Hydrogeological Socio-Economic Davao basin is the most vulnerable in terms of Hydrogeological and Countermeasure. 20

22 Tool for Guiding Policy FVI can be an important policy-making tool for 1) raising public awareness, 2) assisting governments in priority setting 3) guiding the international organizations in directions of involvement. 21

23 Conclusions and Challenges FVI based on the Philippines data shows quantitatively the vulnerability of each basin. We have reached at the starting point from which to prioritize activities aimed at reducing flood vulnerability. FCSEC will continue the study with FVI to assess the flood vulnerability for 421 principal river basins annually or biennially. 22