ETI TIDAL RESOURCE MODELLING

Transcription

1 17th O October ETI TIDAL RESOURCE MODELLING BLACK & VEATCH TEAM SIAN WILSON (BLACK & VEATCH) PROJECT MANAGER

2 CONTENTS Introduction Project Background UK Continental Shelf Model Scenario modelling Interaction outputs Purpose of the model Access to the model 2

3 INTRODUCTION 3

4 ETI INTRODUCTION The ETI Public / private funded The ETI brings together projects that t accelerate the development of affordable, secure, sustainable technologies needed to help the UK meet its legally binding 2050 targets. The ETI takes a holistic long term perspective on the energy challenges 4

5 TEAM INTRODUCTION B&V Team includes: Black & Veatch (B&V) HR Wallingford (HRW) University of Edinburgh (UoE) 5

6 PROJECT BACKGROUND 6

7 ETIPROJECT AIMSAND AND OBJECTIVES The ETI commissioned the work to understand interactions in UK waters from tidal energy extraction The tool produced to answer this is dynamic, credible and robust and the use is not limited it to interactions ti It is the most highly resolved 2D hydrodynamic model available to the public for energy extraction modelling, site selection and feasibility level optimisation 7

8 PROJECT BACKGROUND ETI commissioned a highlyresolved, dynamic, UK Continental Shelf model To provide improved understanding of interactions To provide a useful tool to the industry Completion November 2012 Launch of the model in

9 UK CONTINENTAL SHELF MODEL 9

10 UK Continental Shelf Model Boundaries of UK Continental Shelf Model 10

11 CSM Setup TELEMAC TELEMAC code adjustments for energy extraction ti BATHYMETRY TPXO satellite MESHresolution Coastline data Detailed 200m Coordinates Harmonics Coarse 1km Technology (s) Site (s) CSM 2D numerical model Results 11

12 CSM Setup Licensed data TELEMAC TELEMAC code adjustments for energy extraction ti BATHYMETRY Method approved TPXO satellite by PerAWaT MESH Coastline Parameterisation data can be updated Boundaries Coordinates infuture ashydrodynamics Harmonics are Resolution understood in practice Technology (s) Site (s) CSM Results 12

13 CSM Calibration / Validation Data sets selection Independent sets for Calibration / Validation Coverage of the entire model area Located close to sites of interest Calibration Validation 24 coastal tidal gauges g + 11 offshore tidal gauges g = 35 measures ( global coverage for a global model ) 13

14 CSM Calibration / Validation Performance at Wexford, Ireland: observed water level (source: Marine Institute) synthesised from observed water level (source: Marine Institute) model water level Wexford at Milford Haven, Wales : Milford Haven observed water level (source: BODC) -4.0 synthesised from observed water level (source: BODC) /03/10 03/03/10 05/03/10 07/03/10 model water 09/03/10 level 11/03/10 13/03/10 15/03/ Avonmouth -6.0 at Avonmouth, England: 12.0 observed water level (source: BODC) -8.0 synthesised from observed water level (source: BODC) 01/03/10 03/03/10 05/03/10 07/03/10 09/03/10 11/03/10 13/03/10 15/03/ model water level at Dover, England: Dover 05/03/10 IEC resource 07/03/10 observed water 09/03/10 level assessment (source: BODC) 11/03/10 13/03/10 standard 15/03/10 synthesised from observed water level (source: BODC) model water level 01/03/10 03/03/ HR Wallingford in house standards /03/10 03/03/10 05/03/10 07/03/10 09/03/10 11/03/10 13/03/10 15/03/10 ( good / comparable performance ) 14

15 Verification Comparisons to available data sets Correct features at correct places ADCP data Good correlation at 2 data points (l (close proximity) ( good / comparable performance ) 15

16 SCENARIO MODELLING 16

17 RRR DDDD SSSS Tidal Range sites Tidal Barrage = 10 Tidal Lagoon = 11 XXXX 17

18 Tidal Current sites Review of Carbon Trust 2011 report UK Tidal Current Resource and Economics report University of Edinburgh literature review Site confirmation Automated site identification 18

19 SCENARIO MODELLING Development considered every decade up to 2050 Political will Medium Optimistic Warning resource requires optimisation These scenarios are designed to test the interactions so some are very extreme to give us stronger conclusions on the interactions. Medium Optimistic Optimistic Medium Medium Optimistic Optimistic Medium Individual cases Pessimistic nothing Extreme case as much as possible Special case specific tests 19

20 INTERACTION OUTPUTS 20

21 1. Tidal current impact on tidal range? TR 52TWh/y TR 52TWh/y TC 53TWh/y 2. Tidal range impact on tidal current? TR 59TWh/y TC 45TWh/y TC 45TWh/y Note if there is a combination of tidal current and tidal range installed in one estuary; there is likely to be interactions 21

22 3. The Severn Outer impact? TR 12.9GW TC 3GW TR 16.4GW (Severn Outer) TC 3GW Downstream 0.35 to 1.75m Greater far field effects Downstream 0.1 to 1.75m n bt between Tidal emes in Irish Sea Change in Tidal Range (m) presented here to show changes across UK continental Shelf. Change in Velocity is localised to tidal current extraction sites. This is due to the efficiency of extraction of the technology types. 22

23 4. Impact in the Irish Sea/European coast? TR 55GW 19 schemes TC 38GW European coastline minor effect Increase of c.1m is extreme with 19 TR schemes What is the optimum for UK extraction most energy, least change in tidal range, other optimisation factor? Rye and Dymchurch minor downstream effects due to open ocean 23

24 INTERACTION OUTPUTS 5. Tidal near field edeffectect CF decreased due to less intense resource sites and over extraction. Extreme extraction reduces capacity factors to uneconomic levels Scenario 6 Scenario ( med) (2050 extreme) Scenario 24 (extreme Pentland Firth) GW TWh/y CF 49% 24% 4% 6% Scenario 25 (extreme UK) 24

25 Localised tidal current development Kinetic Power Density change in the Pentland Firth with 86GW of tidal current energy extraction For many of the tidal current locations, the near field extraction levels can reach 50% of Power Density (blue to pink areas) with ihincreases in Power Density seen as a result (green to red areas). Energy extraction ti from tidal current sites could ldimpact the energy available at other local sites 25

26 CONCLUSIONS Tidal current sites no impact on tidalrange sites. Tidalrange development has minimal impact on tidal current sites, in the most extreme cases. Locally there is impacts between schemes Severn Outer barrage has a significantly more severe far field impact (in comparison to BB and C W). Irish Sea schemes combined create large scale tidal range effects Much less effect on downstream tidal range for lagoons on open coastlines (Rye, Dymchurch, Cumbria, Wigtown) or smaller lagoons. The extreme case (19 TR schemes!) which increased tidal range, in particular in the Irish Sea and surroundings, is unlikely to be acceptable in terms of environmental (and safety) impacts. UK Waters management and optimisation required to maximise potential of UK resource. 26

27 OPTIMISATION UK resource needs optimisation and management: 1. Maximising energy generation (largely independent of a cost of energy threshold). 2. Maximising energy generation (minimising cost of energy or to various threshold(s)). 3. Minimising the impacts on environmental / other constraint factors (i.e. ability to consent). 4. Maximising power smoothing from tidal power generation (regionally or nationally). 5. Minimising i i i impacts on the existing i grid network (i.e. short term ability to build capacity). 27

28 PURPOSE OF THE MODEL 28

29 OPTIONS FOR USING THE MODEL Optimisation of UK resource Government Interested parties (maximising UK resources) Stakeholders in UK renewable energy industry Maximising energy output Minimising practical/environmental impacts Optimising for any other key factors Site specific Project/technology developers Stakeholders Regional interaction analysis Localised Interaction analysis Site identification Site optimisation UK benefit/future opportunity Accurate information about the UK resource A credible modelling tool to assess the resource and annual energy yield For management of the whole resource For site development Improved understanding and a very credible tool for informing the industry 29

30 ACCESS TO THE MODEL 30

31 Web Interface Access CSM Web User Interface LAUNCHED January 2013 Access provided for a fee A special user group of the TELEMAC website ZIP your inputs, upload and wait for e mail trail Outputs ed 31

32 THANK YOU