Impacts and costs of sea-level rise: A focus on Europe

Transcription

1 Impacts and costs of sea-level rise: A focus on Europe Sally Brown, University of Southampton, UK Drawing on work with: Robert Nicholls, Jochen Hinkel, Nassos Vafeidis, Paul Watkiss, Jason Lowe, Anne Pardaens, Susan Hanson, Abiy Kebede, Barbara Neumann, Colin Woodroffe

2 Examples of extreme events 2

3 Examples of extreme events 3

4 Examples of extreme events 4

5 Examples of extreme events 5

6 Examples of extreme events 6

7 Examples of extreme events 7

8 Examples of extreme events 8

9 Examples of extreme events 9

10 Examples of extreme events 10

11 Structure Relative sea-level rise and other drivers Projections of sea-level rise and modelling impacts European costs Adaptation

12 Structure Relative sea-level rise and other drivers Projections of sea-level rise and modelling impacts European costs Adaptation

13 Relative sea-level rise 13.2 mm/yr 0.7 mm/yr 1.4 mm/yr 2.0 mm/yr 0.8 mm/yr 3.0 mm/yr 0.5 mm/yr Source: Brown et al. (2013). Sea-level rise impacts and responses: A global perspective. In: C Finkl (ed) Coastal Hazards. 13

14 Projections of sea-level rise Source: Brown et al. (2013). Sea-level rise impacts and responses: A global perspective. In: C Finkl (ed) Coastal Hazards. 14

15 Population growth Source: United Nations World Population Prospects (2012). Total population, plus projections based on high and low fertility rates. 15

16 Population projections Source: United Nations World Population Prospects (2012). Total population, plus projections based on high and low fertility rates. 16

17 Coastal population Source: Brown et al. (2013). Sea-level rise impacts and responses: A global perspective. In: C Finkl (ed) Coastal Hazards. 17

18 Why Europe? Locally high population densities Important cities Important trade Improve understand costs from a strategic planning perspective Consider how to better protect the coast 18

19 Structure Relative sea-level rise and other drivers Projections of sea-level rise and modelling impacts European costs Adaptation

20 Global sea-level rise (m) Potential sea-level rise A1B(IMAGE) scenario (3.5ºC rise, 0.37m rise in 2080s) E1 mitigation scenario (1.5ºC rise 0.27m rise in 2080s) No climate change scenario (0m rise in 2080s) A1B(I) E No SLR Time (decadal means) 20

21 DIVA: Coastal Segments 12,000 segments globally, with 1,606 in the EU, average length 45km. 21

22 Return Level (m) DIVA: Return Period Log Return Period (year) 22

23 DIVA: Module methodology USER SELECTION SOCIO-ECONOMIC SCENARIOS CLIMATE CHANGE/ SEA-LEVEL RISE SCENARIOS ADAPTATION OPTIONS INITIALISATION (for 1995) IMPACT ASSESSMENT (5 year time steps to 2100) T = T + 1 STORM SURGE BACKWATER EFFECT EROSION SALINISATION WETLAND LOSS/CHANGE FLOOD RISK WETLAND VALUATION SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACTS ADAPTATION ASSESSMENT IMPACT METRICS (for 2000 to 2100). FOR EXAMPLE: DAMAGE COSTS ADAPTATION COSTS 23

24 Parameters investigated Damage costs (2005 Euros, not discounted or uplifted): Sea floods, river floods, land loss, salinisation, people to migrate. Adaptation costs (2005 Euros, not discounted or uplifted): Sea dike, river dike, beach nourishment. Scenario A1B(I) E1 No climate change A1B(I) E1 No climate change Adaptation With upgrade With upgrade With upgrade No upgrade No upgrade No upgrade 24

25 Structure Relative sea-level rise and other drivers Projections of sea-level rise and modelling impacts European costs Adaptation

26 Geographical and time scales 22 EU countries with a coastline (in 2010) Data reported as thirty year means (2020s, 2050s, 2080s) 26

27 Economic damage costs (billions Euros / year) EU damage costs A1B(I) (no upgrade to adaptation) A1B(I) (with upgrade to adaptation) E1 (no upgrade to adaptation) E1 (with upgrade to adaptation) No SLR (no upgrade to adaptation) No SLR (with upgrade to adaptation) s 2020s 2050s 2080s Time frame 27

28 Capital adaptation costs (billions Euros / year) EU adaptation costs A1B(I) (no upgrade to adaptation) A1B(I) (with upgrade to adaptation) E1 (no upgrade to adaptation) E1 (with upgrade to adaptation) No SLR (no upgrade to adaptation) No SLR (with upgrade to adaptation) Source: Eurosion (2004) Adaptation costs ( billions) Year Budget DIVA s 2020s 2050s 2080s Time frame 28

29 Structure Relative sea-level rise and other drivers Projections of sea-level rise and modelling impacts European costs Adaptation

30 Adaptation to sea-level rise Source: Brown et al. (2013). Sea-level rise impacts and responses: A global perspective. In: C Finkl (ed) Coastal Hazards. 30

31 Adaptation to sea-level rise Rotterdam: Climate-proofing, sustainability and energy efficiency. HafenCity, Hamburg: Redesigning the waterfront to create a new low flood risk area of the city. 31

32 Conclusion Climate mitigation does not stop sea-level rise, but will slow the rate of rise. Need to improve understand the potential magnitude of sea-level -> Further monitoring. Socio-economic change is important and will influence the magnitude of impacts and costs. Adaptation remains essential and seems a wise and worthwhile investment -> Flexible about long-term adaptation: Promote awareness, broader range of options, more detailed assessments. Put in context of the broader issues of integrated coastal zone management, considering other drivers of change. A combination of adaptation and mitigation is advisable to reduce long-term sea-level rise and to keep risks at an acceptable level. 32

33 Brown et al. (2013) Sea-level rise impacts and responses: a global perspective. In, Finkl, Charles W. (ed.)coastal Hazards. Pardaens et al (2011. Sea-level rise and impacts projections under a future scenario with large greenhouse gas emission reductions. Geophysical Research Letters, 38, (12), L12604 Brown et al. (2011) The Impacts and Economic Costs of Sea-Level Rise on Coastal Zones. Briefing note: