Management of the Niemen River basin with account of adaptation to climate change:

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1 Management of the Niemen River basin with account of adaptation to climate change: Vladimir Korneev Central Research Institute for Complex Use of Water Resources (CRICUWR), Minsk, Belarus With contribution: Egidijus Rimkus, Edvinas Stonevicius, Vilnius University, Lithuania; Audrius Šepikas, Environmental Protection Agency, Lithuania; Nickolai Denisov, Zoï environment network, Switzerland; Aliaksandr Volchak, Brest State Technical University, Brest, Belarus; Aliaksandr Pakhomau, Lubov Hertman, Ivan Bulak, Elena Bogodiazh, CRICUWR, Minsk, Belarus; Ina Rusaya, Republican Centre of Radiation Control and Monitoring, Minsk, Belarus Vladimir Anufriev, Belarusian National Technical University, Minsk, Belarus

2 The project is part of the UNECE Programme of pilot projects and thus it can use the platform for exchange of practices and experience between the projects and other similar initiatives aimed at development of cooperation for adaptation to the climate change in transboundary basins. The project on the Niemen River is implementing within the framework of Environment and Security Initiative (ENVSEC). picture from UNECE web-site

3 The overall objective of the project is to improve integrated river basin management and transboundary cooperation in times of a changing climate in the Neman river basin. The project aims to strengthen the capacity to adapt to climate change of the countries sharing the Neman river through supporting dialogue and cooperation on the needed steps to design an adaptation strategy in the transboundary context. It will aim to reach a common understanding on future water availability and water use taking into account possible climate change impacts. Result achieved The project has resulted in a first joint assessment of water resources and climate change impacts in the Neman Basin, thereby enabling a renewal of cooperation between experts from the riparian countries on the shared river basin.

4 Main activities and results achieved Assessment of the current state of the water resources of the Niemen River basin (quantitative and qualitative aspects), elaboration of the climate change scenarios and forecasting of runoff changes. Detected changes of meteorological and hydrological characteristics for the period from 1961 to 2010: Statistically significant increase in annual, winter and summer temperature (largest changes were observed in January); Statistically significant increase in winter precipitation; Maximum spring flood discharge decreased and the minimum winter flow increased statistically significant in large part of territory; Peak of spring flood and the dates of minimum winter flow tends occur earlier in the whole basin area.

5 Assessment of current status of water resources in the Niemen River Basin

6 Assessment of current status of water resources in the Niemen River Basin

7 Assessment of current status of water resources in the Niemen River Basin

8 Assessment of current status of water resources in the Niemen River Basin

9 Assessment of current status of water resources in the Niemen River Basin

10 Future climate projections The regional CCLM model runs are driven by the initial and boundary conditions of the Global Circulation Model ECHAM5/MPI-OM. Realizations of the ECHAM5/MPI-OM model were dynamically downscaled to a smaller grid using the CCLM model. Two greenhouse gas emission scenarios were used A1B (relatively high-emission scenario) B1 (low-emission scenario) Near-term forecast was made Temperature projections for the Neman river basin foresee an air temperature rise in the first half of the 21st century. Mean annual air temperature in the basin is expected to rise by 1.4 C 1.7 C according to different climate scenarios, with a 2.0 C 2.8 C increase in Winter and 0.7 C 1.1 C increase in Summer. The annual precipitation amount will also likely increase in the Neman basin area. Larger changes are predicted for the first half of the year, while for the summer-autumn period smaller positive or even negative changes are foreseen. Model outputs data indicate a decrease in sunshine duration in the first half of the 21st century. Relatively the largest sunshine duration decrease will be observed during the winter months. Due to the cold season air temperature rise and changes in precipitation composition snow cover will decline in the nearterm future

11 Temperature and precipitation forecast (annual) A1B - scenario B1 - scenario

12 Results of the future water balance modeling show that significant changes of the runoff regime in the Neman basin are likely to happen. The projected annual runoff will be lower in than in in the Belarusian part of the Neman basin, but the annual runoff in the Lithuanian part of the Neman basin is likely to increase. The largest positive changes are projected in January and February due to the earlier start of spring flood, rise of winter precipitation and increased frequency of thaws. The projected maximum runoff will decrease in the majority of the Neman basin because of warmer winters with more frequent thaws and consequently less water accumulated in snow cover before flood. Spring flood will also start earlier due to the shorter duration of snow cover. The higher flood risk can be expected only in the western part of Lithuania. The changing climate will also affect the warm season (May- September) runoff. The decrease of May-September runoff in some catchments suggests that in some parts of the Neman basin the hydrological droughts may be more frequent or with higher magnitude then they were in the

13 Runoff forecast Belarusian model (annual) A1B - scenario B1 - scenario Runoff forecast Lithuanian model (annual) A1B - scenario B1 - scenario

14 Runoff forecast Belarusian model (winter) A1B - scenario B1 - scenario Runoff forecast Lithuanian model (winter) A1B - scenario B1 - scenario

15 Runoff forecast Belarusian model (summer) A1B - scenario B1 - scenario Runoff forecast Lithuanian model (summer) A1B - scenario B1 - scenario

16 Forecasted water use for the industry of Belarus will grow by % per year in case of optimistic scenario of economic development which will also have slight impact on runoff regime. However, it was determined that the impact of climate change will be more important on runoff in the Neman River Basin on the territory of Belarus in comparison with forecasted impact of water use changes.

17 Main activities and results achieved Pilot implementation of common Lithuanian and Belarusian approach for assessment of water quality of surface waters in the entire Niemen River Basin taking into account Lithuanian experience for selected list of water quality monitoring stations (WQMS) and for selected list of water quality parameters including preparation a series of basinwide maps regarding classification of surface waters quality. Analysis of the meteorological, hydrological, hydrochemical and hydrobiological monitoring systems in the Neman River Basin and preparation of the proposals for meteorological and hydrological systems optimization for climate change monitoring. Development of the prototype of common information platform (Internet database), containing data on water resources management and adaptation to climate change for the Niemen River basin countries.

18 Examples of implementation of common Lithuanian and Belarusian approach for assessment of water quality of surface waters taking into account European experience

19 Ongoing/ Future planned activities: Estimation and forecast of the future climate change impact on the water quality Elaboration of the common information platform (Internet database), containing data on water resources management and adaptation to climate change for the Neman River basin countries Discussions with participation of stakeholders for participatory analysis of the impacts of projected changes in runoff on various socio-economic sectors and about of recommendations and adaptation measures Development of the recommendations for the improvement of the water management in the Neman River Basin with account of adaptation to climate change.

20 Thank you for attention! River Niemen in Grodno (Belarus)