Global Security Concerns: The case of water, global drivers and transboundary issues
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1 NATO Security Science Forum on Environmental Security NATO Headquarters, Brussels 12 March, 2008 Global Security Concerns: The case of water, global drivers and transboundary issues András Szöllösi-Nagy Deputy Assistant Director General Secretary, International Hydrological Programme UNESCO
2 International Hydrological Programme (IHP) Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) The cycle is changing? Increased risks? Growing vulnerability? More disasters? Less water for people? Crisis is looming? What crisis? Global or local? Transboundary issues?
3 Global change drivers Population growth, movement and age structures Economic growth Geo-political changes and realignments Trade and subsidies Resource competition Urbanization Land use change Technological changes Climate change U.S. Bureau of the Census
4 Global change impacts Global change is more than global climate variability/change It has natural PLUS human/social dimensions A constellation of changes, many global in domain For example, we see large changes in: Richards (1991), WRI (1990) Mackenzie et al (2002) Reid & Miller (1989) NOAA Vitousek (1994)
5 Does the cycle accelerate?
6 Major floods and droughts worldwide in 2002 Germany Germany China China Korea Flood Drought Austria France Senegal Kenya Czech Russia Turkey Ethiopia Kenya Afghanistan Nepal India Sri Lanka China Bangladesh Vietnam Korea Philippines Indonesia USA Micronesia USA Mexico Haiti/ Jamaica Peru Uruguay Ecuador Bolivia There is pressing need to develop advanced risk management on water hazard in order to secure human life and ensure sustainable socioeconomic development and poverty alleviation.
7 Water Stress Changes to % of future stress from population & development, not climate change! Correct Priorities? (E.g. 85% US global change research funding to climate and carbon) UNH Vörösmarty et al. 2000
8 GLOBAL FRESHWATER RESOURCES Relation between water availability and population
9
10 States surface within transboundary basins 145 States include territory within transboundary basins 21 States lie entirely within a transboundary basin 12 States have more than 95% of their territory within one or more transboundary basin(s)
11 WAR OVER WATER?
12 The Nile River basin The Jordan River basin
13 The Indus River and the Ganges Brahmaputra-Maghna River Basin
14 The Tigris Euphrates basin
15 The Aral Sea basin
16
17 History of US Dam & Reservoir Construction % increase in water held by river systems Stored Runoff < 2% annual flow >100 Several years of residence time change in many basins Tripling of river runoff travel times globally (from 20 up to 60 days) Substantial impact on aquatic biodiversity Interception of 30% of continental TSS flux From: Vörösmarty et al. 2004, Eos-AGU Trans.
18 Infrastructure gap: Water storage Water storage per person (m3) 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,729 6,150 4,000 3,000 2,486 3,255 2,000 1, Ethiopia 746 South Africa 1,287 1,406 Thailand Laos China Brazil Australia North America
19 UN Convention on the Law of Non- Navigational Uses of Transboundary Watercourses 1997 Consistent with state practice Comprises earlier efforts of codification Adopted equitable utilization as leading principles of international water law, with a list of factors to be used for determination of equitability of share Adopted the principle of no significant harm Ratification process en route Needed: 35 Obtained: 16 (Not yet in force after 27 years of negotiation)
20 Aquifer Transboundary Issues
21 The next war in the Middle East will be fought over water, not politics." Boutros Boutros Ghali, former UN Secretary General in 1985 "The wars of the next century will be about water." Ismail Serageldin, former vice president of the World Bank in 1999 Fierce competition for fresh water may well become a source of conflict and wars in the future. Kofi Annan, former U.N. Secretary-General in 2001
22 WAR OVER WATER? ONE war over water: Umma and Lagash in Sumer (4500 years ago)
23 Events related to transboundary waters
24 Number of treaties per basin
25 But the water problems of our world need not be only a cause of tension; they can also be a catalyst for cooperation.if we work together, a secure and sustainable water future can be ours. Kofi Annan, February
26 From Potential Conflict to Co-operation Potential One of UNESCO s contributions to the World Water Assessment Programme
27 World Water Assessment Programme (WWAP) The State of The World s Freshwater Resources
28 How to put water in the minds of people? The challenge we all have
29 Anybody who can solve the problems of water will be worthy of two Nobel Prizes, one for peace and one for science (President J. F. Kennedy)
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