Disaster Risk in School Infrastructure The Global Program for Safer Schools

Transcription

1 Disaster Risk in School Infrastructure The Global Program for Safer Schools Fernando Ramirez Cortes Senior Disaster Risk Management Specialist The World Bank Group

2 Message 1 Children and teachers are increasingly exposed to the impact of natural hazards worldwide

3 Each year, natural disasters and climate change around the world have a devastating effect on children s education Year Event Country # of schools affected 2001 Earthquake India 1,864 (collapsed) 2005 Earthquake Pakistan 7,000 (collapsed) 2007 Cyclone Bangladesh 6,000 (collapsed) 2008 Earthquake China 7,400 (collapsed) 2009 Cyclone Philippines 3,417 (damaged) 2010 Earthquake Haiti 1,350 (collapsed) 2013 Typhoon Philippines 2,500 (damaged) 2015 Earthquake Nepal 5,000 (destroyed) 2016 Earthquake Ecuador 1,000 (damaged) 2016 Hurricane Haiti 730 (damaged) Source World Bank GPSS

4 Low intensity and high frequency events such as floods and storms may have a accumulative impact stronger than a single large scale disaster About 70% of schools in Mozambique are located in hazard prone areas 40,000 new classrooms (estimated) will be needed by 2025 Impact of recurrent events, 200 to 1,000 classrooms destroyed, out of about constructed every year Source World Bank GPSS

5 Along with growing urbanization in middle-income countries large stock of school buildings are exposed to natural hazards In Peru more than 45,000 public school facilities serve 6.5m students In Turkey over 83,000 schools offer services to 17.5m students Seismic risk of school infrastructure in Peru (Annual Average Loss AAL) Distribution of Students according to Earthquake Zones Source: A. Hakan MUTLU (Civil Engineer, Ph.D.) Source: World Bank and Universidad de Los Andes

6 Message 2 The accumulative impact of natural disasters and climate change exacerbates governments ability to finance and operate a growing stock of school facilities and ensure continuity of educational services especially in the poorest areas

7 The rapid expansion of school infrastructure and dynamic education approaches From 2000 to 2015 as part of the Millennium Development Goals The primary school net enrolment rate in developing regions increased from 83% to 91% The number of out-of-school children (primary age) worldwide has fallen by from 100 to 57 million Source: UN MDGs Report 2015

8 School infrastructure spending needs to move toward efficient and sustainable investments Capital expenditure as a percentage of total expenditure, by level of public education (2013) PRIMARY SECONDARY TERTIARY Indonesia Japan Argentina Guatemala Peru Sri Lanka Benin Ghana Niger Rwanda Canada Capital expenditure as a percentage of total expenditure, by level of public education ( ) Pares estructurales (2012) Pares regionales (2013) OCDE (2013) Perú (2014) Inicial Primaria Secundaria Superior Total *Pares estructurales: Canadá, Australia, Malaysia, Romania, Tailandia. Pares regionales: Brasil, Colombia, México, Argentina, Uruguay Source: UNESCO

9 There are common issues in developing countries that can be addressed poor baseline (inventory and condition) of school facilities non-updated building codes and poor enforcement lack of proper planning for new school locations low quality buildings due to multiple problems in the construction cycle low coordination between stakeholders (government institutions, community, Donors, NGOs) poor or lack of maintenance

10 Poor Construction Quality: Evidence from the 2015 Gorkha Earthquake in Nepal 58% of school buildings in the fourteen most damage affected districts are of Unreinforced Masonry type followed by Steel Frame with Masonry Walls (27%) Source World Bank GPSS Nepal SSP SIDA Steel Frame 27% RC Frame 12% Timber Frame 3% Structural Typology [out of 18,000 buildings] Masonry 58%

11 Poor Construction Quality: Evidence from the 2015 Gorkha Earthquake in Nepal UNREINFORCED MASONRY (UM) 69% of UM school buildings are made of field stone walls laid in mud mortar 86% of UM school buildings have been damaged by the earthquake Source World Bank GPSS Nepal SSP SIDA 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Dry stone Damage Level in UM Schools Stone in mud mortar Stone in cement mortar Brick in mud mortar Brick in cement mortar Collapse Major Damage Minor Damage Unaffected

12 Poor Construction Quality: Evidence from the 2015 Gorkha Earthquake in Nepal STEEL FRAME WITH MASONRY WALLS (SFM) 2,046 school buildings (43%) have collapsed or have had major damage, due to mainly the poor performance of the masonry walls Source World Bank GPSS Nepal SSP SIDA

13 Message 3 Innovation and optimization of traditional engineering solutions is required to find affordable options and scale up policies to make school infrastructure (existing and new) more resilient

14 Exceedace rate Probabilistic risk modeling Hazard (i.e. earthquake) Exposure (i.e. schools) Vulnerability Damage Functions (of school buildings) Risk (i.e. probable losses) Intensity measure Hazard modeling outputs Mapping of Critical Infrastructure, exposure data recollection/gathering, modeling & vulnerability modeling Risk assessment outputs (risk metrics) Source: CAPRA Presentations WB (2010)

15 Measuring Seismic Risk of school infrastructure Concentration of seismic risk by school facility in Lima and Callao Source World Bank Los Andes University

16 Benefit/Cost (B/C) ratio of reinforcement options Concrete Walls Concrete Frames Benefit opt. 1 Benefit opt. 2 Source World Bank Los Andes University

17 Structural failure of school buildings (Type 780 PRE) in Peru 780 PRE Modules 780 POST Modules 2.2 million students 12,000 school facilities 42,000 school buildings PRE 780 to be retrofitted Short column effect Source Peru Ministry of Education- PRONIED

18 Study for Incremental Retrofitting of School Buildings 780 PRE in Peru (2016)* Beneficiary Research groups Funding Government of Japan Universidad Nacional de Ingenieria de Peru General Direction Global Program for Safer Schools Advisor and peer reviewer Colombia * Study on progress

19 Study for Incremental Retrofitting of School Buildings 780 PRE in Peru (2016) Incremental seismic rehabilitation Source: FEMA P-420

20 Study for Incremental Retrofitting of School Buildings 780 PRE in Peru (2016) Incremental retrofitting solutions Steel braces Buttress walls Additional concrete frames Confined masonry Concrete shear walls

21 Study for Incremental Retrofitting of School Buildings 780 PRE in Peru (2016) Concrete shear walls Steel braces Longer intervention time More complex procedures Significant reduction in window areas (Illumination) No complex intervention to structural elements Shorter installation time Higher benefit in terms of risk reduction (better performance) C/B reinforcement options

22 Base shear (kn) Study for Incremental Retrofitting of School Buildings 780 PRE in Peru (2016) Incremental retrofitting: performance points Tr: 475 yr IO DC DC LS LS CP CP Phase 2 Phase Phase IO IO Original Module CP CP Drift (m) Drift (m) IO = Immediate ooccupancy LS = Life safety DC = Damage control CP = Collapse prevention

23 Study for Incremental Retrofitting of School Buildings 780 PRE in Peru (2016) Laboratory test: Typology 780 PRE without reinforcement (Structural engineering lab PUCP, Lima 2016 )

24 Study for Incremental Retrofitting of School Buildings 780 PRE in Peru (2016) Laboratory test: Typology 780 PRE steel brace reinforcement (Structural engineering lab PUCP, Lima 2016 )

25 The GPSS is focused on integrating risk considerations into school infrastructure Advisory Board & Partnerships Component 1 MONITORING RISK OF SCHOOL FACILITIES Component 2 ROADMAPS TOWARDS RESILIENCE Component 3 IMPLEMENTING IN- COUNTRY TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE ACTIVITIES Open Source Knowledge Management Platform

26 THANK YOU