Consequences of ICAO s aviation and climate change policy
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1 Consequences of ICAO s aviation and climate change policy Paul Peeters (1) (2) (3) (1) NHTV Centre for Sustainable Tourism & Transport, Breda, NL ( peeters.p@nhtv.nl) (2) Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, Delft University of Technology, Delft, The Netherlands (3) Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, Wageningen, The Netherlands Changes in tourism Vakantiebeurs Utrecht, 11 th of January 2017
2 2
3 Options to Reduce Aviation s CO 2 Emissions Technology and Standards Sustainable Alternative Fuels (SAF) Global Market Based Measures (GMBM): Emission charges Emissions trading Offsetting 3
4 Options to Reduce Aviation s CO 2 Emissions Technology and Standards CO2 standard Sustainable Alternative Fuels (SAF) Global Market Based Measures (GMBM): Emission charges Emissions trading CORSIA 4
5 CORSIA (former GMBM) Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA) Airlines buy carbon offsets for every additional ton of CO 2 above 2020 emissions. Three groups of countries based on global national income (GNI) per capita and revenue ton kms (RTKs) Phased introduction: 2021: rich or high level RTK 2026: medium plus rich incl. low level RTK never: LDC s (Least developed Countries) 5
6 CORSIA countries 6
7 Effects of CORSIA Source: ICCT policy summary CORSIA. 7
8 A problem: no offsets after CO2 emissions (Mton) Reference A1_High_Def_Unl A2_Low_Def_Unl A1_High_Inc_Unl A2_Low_Dec_Pam Global emissions (Parijs Agreed at 2.0 C) Global emissions (Parijs AmbiMon at 1.5 C) 8
9 A fuel (or CO 2 ) standard: EU Car inspired Improving efficiency Zervas, E. (2010). Analysis of the CO 2 emissions and of the other characteristics of the European market of new passenger cars. 1. Analysis of general data and analysis per country. Energy Policy, 38(10),
10 The CO 2 standard Metric Value The measured Specific Air Range (SAR): Reference Geometric Factor RGF:
11 Aircraft fuel efficiency and aviation total emissions Long haul aircraft fuel efficiency Energy Intensity E I (MJ/ask) Global aviation emissions (Mton/yr) IPCC values Sigmoidal regression Additional jet airliners Global aviation emissions Year of market introduction 11
12 And being an consultant at ICAO for an NGO ICAO CAEP/10 Working Group 3 CO2 Task Group 3rd Meeting Madrid, Spain Monday 9th to Friday 13th September
13 Albritton, D., et al. (1997). Global atmospheric effects of aviation. Report of the Proceedings of the symposium held on April 1996 in Virginia beach Virginia, USA. Washington Penner, J. E., Lister, D. H., Griggs, D. J., Dokken, D. J., & McFarland, M. (1999). Aviation and the global atmosphere; a special report of IPCC working groups I and III. In. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
14 Kar, R., Bonnefoy, P. A., & Hansman, R. J. (2010). Dynamics of Implementation of Mitigating Measures to Reduce CO2 Emissions from Commercial Aviation. Cambridge (MA): M. M. I. o. Technology).
15 Babikian, R., Lukachko, S. P., & Waitz, I. A. (2002). The historical fuel efficiency characteristics of regional aircraft from technological, operational, and cost perspectives. Journal of Air Transport Management, 8,
16 Lee, J. J., Lukachko, S. P., & Waitz, I. A. (2004). Aircraft and energy use. In C. J. Cleveland (Ed.), Encyclopedia of energy (Vol. 1, pp ). Amsterdam: Elsevier.
17 Rutherford and Zeinali (2009) Efficiency Trends for Newly Delivered Aircraft.
18 MDG. (2012). MDG trends assessment: ICAO.
19 The MVdb BAU trend for MV normalised to 100t MV normalised for 100t All MVdb plus >45t PA Sigm. log. 5 regression
20 140 Jets (IPCC) Sigmoidal regression A380 A350 B787 Nolte et al. (2012): 2020 Nolte et al. (2012): 2030 Peeters, P. M., & Middel, J. (2007). Historical and future development of air transport fuel efficiency. In R. Sausen, A. Blum, D. S. Lee & C. Brüning (Eds.), Proceedings of an International Conference on Transport, Atmosphere and Climate (TAC); Oxford, United Kingdom, 26th to 29th June 2006 (pp ). Oberpfaffenhoven: DLR Institut für Physic der Atmosphäre. 20
21 Trends in scenario studies Out of over a hundred scenarios studied not one assumes fuel efficiency to go backwards over the next decades/century. This means that a CO 2 standard set at a constant level for a longer period (6-9 years like for noise/no x ) has diminishing meaning for future aircraft. ICCAIA. (2009). Fuel Consumption Scenarios CAEP8-WG3-IP6-xx Appendix. Arlington, VA: ICCAIA.
22 Trends in scenarios (cont.)
23 Stringency development "Stringency development" "MV trend development" 0.4 and then a group process started
24 My PhD research: The GTTM dyn Results based on dynamic Global Tourism & Transport Model (GTTM dyn ) System dynamics based (Powersim Studio 10SR5) Scope: all overnight travel (leisure, business, visiting friend&relatives) Basic transport modes (air, car, other) Volumes (trips, pkm), economics, CO2 emissions, radiative forcing Runs from 1900 up to 2100 Policies: technology, transport speed and cost, taxes, subsidies, infrastructure investments, biofuels, behavioural parameters 24
25 The ICAO scenario CO2 emissions (Mton) Reference ICAO_CO2 standard ICAO GMBM ICAO SAF ICAO_Basic 25
26 CO 2 standard decided Implementation in 2020 Option 3: effective in 2026 SO s: 7 (in production types) and 8.5 (new types) The European and US role: the KC46 tanker issue. 26
27 Some other scenarios CO2 emissions (Mton/year) Reference 2100 Worst Case ICAO Ambition ICAO Subsidised ICAO Ambition Budget Neutral Ultimate Modal Shift Ultimate Mitigation Economic Mitigation 27
28 Characteristics Economic Mitigation scenario in 2100 Emissions 95.5% down Global trips, nights and revenues as in Reference Average distance -40% HSR share to 35% (pkm) Aviation: 80% pkm of % revenues of 2020 fleet at 11,000 aircraft % Modal split trips 0 01 Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan 2100 % *Air *Car Other Car Air Non-commercial use only! Modal split distance 0 01 Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan 2100 *Air *Car Other Car Air Non-commercial use only! 28
29 Conclusions 2016 ICAO Assembly decisions set a framework but almost ineffective and not in line with Paris goals CORSIA may cost couple of per trip CORSIA is not reducing aviation s emissions Offsetting by TO s?? CO2 standard, if effective, safes cost! Unlimited growth of aviation cannot be reconciled with Paris climate goals. 29
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