Designing a Global Energy System based on 100% Renewables for 2050

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40th Annual IAEE International Conference, 20.07.

1 40th Annual IAEE International Conference, Designing a Global Energy System based on 100% Renewables for 2050 An Application of the Open-Source Energy Modelling System (OSeMOSYS) Konstantin Löffler, Thorsten Burandt, Karlo Hainsch, Pao-Yu Oei Technische Universität Berlin, Workgroup for Economic and Infrastructure Policy (WIP) DIW Berlin, Department Energy Transport and Environment - 1 -

2 Agenda 1) Introduction & OSeMOSYS 2) Model specification and implementation 3) Results - 2 -

3 OSeMOSYS Open Source Energy Modeling System

4 OSeMOSYS An Open Source Energy Modeling System Data Storage Renewable Target Trade Transport ReMSYS Addition Source: Own Illustration, adopted from Trade & storage equations have been improved in Q2/2017. Further improvements of storages are in discussion with the OSeMOSYS-Team

5 Agenda 1) Introduction & OSeMOSYS 2) Model specification and implementation 3) Results - 8 -

6 ReMSYS Our application of OSeMOSYS - 9 -

Model Specification and Implementation Key Data and Constraints 10 regions are considered which mostly consist of an aggregation of countries.

7 Model Specification and Implementation Key Data and Constraints 10 regions are considered which mostly consist of an aggregation of countries. The years are modeled in 5-year steps, with 2015 as a baseline. Demands and fossil fuel prices are fixed and based on the IEA 450ppm scenario datasets (World Energy Outlook 2015). The model considers six time slices in total: three seasons, each with a day/night cycle. The model sets a renewable target of 100% at the end of the modeling period (2050). Also, a global carbon budget in line with the Paris Agreement (650 GtCO 2 ) is set. Source: Own Illustration, based on wikimedia

8 Model Formulation Objective Function Sets: y Year f Fuel s Storage t Technology m Mode of Operation e Emission r Region l Time Slice Objective Function min costs = y t r TotalDiscountedCost y,t,r + y r TotalDiscountedTradeCosts y,r TotalDiscountedCost y,t,r = DiscountedOperatingCost y,t,r + DiscountedCapitalInvestment y,t,r + DiscountedCapitalInvestmentStorage y,s,r + DiscountedTechnologyEmissionsPenalty y,t,r DiscountedSalvageValue y,t,r y Y, t T, r R

9 Agenda 1) Introduction & OSeMOSYS 2) Model specification and implementation 3) Results

10 TWh Global Development of Power Generation Source: Own Illustration

11 Petajoule Global Development of Low-Temperature Heat Generation Source: Own Illustration

12 million freight km Global Development of Freight Transportation Source: Own Illustration

13 2050 Global Costs of Power Generation per Technology in cents/kwh Average of 4.04 cents Source: Own Illustration

14 Conclusion of our Model Results A global energy system based on 100% renewable energy sources for the sectors power, heat and transport is technically possible and can be achieved with low cost. This is due to renewables becoming more and more competitive, as well as cheap storages being more available. Energy transformation in the power sector is the easiest and cheapest, and it is thus the first to complete the shift to 100% renewables. A strong sector coupling between both the heat and transportation sectors with the power sector can be observed. The main energy carriers utilized in our model results are: Wind, solar and biomass

15 Further Research Plans and Outlook Further Research Modular extension of the existing global model with detailed regions (Europe, India, China, ) Improvement of time disaggregation Inclusion of infrastructure aspects, such as costs, and endogenous grid expansion Joint work with the OSeMOSYS-Team Publication of the current GAMS version of OSeMOSYS as official part of the OSeMOSYSframework. Frequent updates and exchange between versions. Support of our GAMS version in the official forums. Plans to do joint work on an extension of the storage equations to enable a more detailed storage system

16 Thank you for your Attention! pixabay Konstantin Löffler

17 Back-Up Slides

18 Hydro PV Wind - Onshore Hydro PV Wind - Onshore Hydro PV Wind - Offshore Wind - Onshore Hydro PV Wind - Offshore Wind - Onshore Hydro PV Wind - Onshore Hydro PV Wind - Offshore Wind - Onshore Hydro PV Wind - Onshore Hydro PV Wind - Onshore Hydro PV Wind - Offshore Wind - Onshore Hydro PV Wind - Offshore Installed Capacity in TW Installed Capacity in Global Africa Asia_Rest China Europe FSU India Middle_EastNorth_America Oceania South_America

19 Global CO 2 Emissions per Energy Carrier in Billion Tons 0% Fossil Fuels in 2050 Megaton CO Coal Gas Oil Source: Own Illustration

20 Global Development of Passenger Transportation PSNG_Rail_Petro PSNG_Rail_ELC PSNG_Road_ICE PSNG_Road_BEV PSNG_Air_Conv PSNG_Air_H2L Source: Own Illustration

21 Petajoule Global Development of High-Temperature Heat Generation Biomass H2 Electric Furnace Oil Gas Coal Source: Own Illustration

22 Percent of Energy Production Energy Produced per Carrier in % Share of Energy Production per Carrier % 90.00% 80.00% 70.00% 60.00% 50.00% 40.00% 30.00% Renewables Oil Nuclear Gas Coal 20.00% 10.00% 0.00% Source: Own Illustration

23 Global Power Generation in 2015 in % IEA vs. Model Calculations IEA IEA Our results Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro Bioenergy Wind Solar PV Other Our results for 2015 are mostly in line with those of the IEA Energy Balance Sheets. Source: IEA (2015): World Energy Outlook 2015; Paris, France: IEA Publications

24 Model Equations Capacity Adequacy m RateOfActivity l,m,r,t,y = TotalCapacityAnnual r,t,y CapacityFactor l,r,t,y AvailabilityFactor r,t,y CapacityToActivityUnit r,t y Y, r R, l L, t T RateOfProductionByTechnologyByMode f,l,m,r,t,y = RateOfActivity l,m,r,t,y OuputActivityRatio f,m,r,t,y f F, l L, m M r R, t T, y Y

25 Model Equations Investment and Trade Costs Investment Function TotalCapacityAnnual r,t,y = ResidualCapacity r,t,y + yy NewCapacity r,t,yy r R, t T, y Y yy = y Y: yy > OperationalLife r,t y yy y r R, t T Trade Costs f rr R Import f,l,r,rr,y TradeRoute f,r,rr,y TradeCosts f,r,rr = TotalTradeCosts l,r,y l L, r R, y Y

26 Time disaggregation in our Model Yearly Disaggregation in Time Slices Year Season Week (DaysInDayType) Mapping via Parameters Time Slices Day (DaySplit) DailyTimeBracket Current Time Disaggregation in our Model: Year Summer Intermediate Winter Day Night Day Night Day Night

27 Illustration of the 10 different regions Source: Own illustration, base on:

28 Selected References Cleveland, C.J., Morris, C. (Hrsg.) (2013a): Handbook of energy. Vol. 1: Diagrams, charts, and tables; Amsterdam: Elsevier. Delucchi, M.A., Jacobson, M.Z., Bauer, Z.A.F., Goodman, S., Chapman, W. (2016): 100% wind, water, and solar roadmaps. EIA (2012): Combined heat and power technology fills an important energy niche - Today in Energy - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA); Washington, D.C., USA, last accessed at EIA (2016b): International Energy Outlook With Projections to 2040; Energy Outlook, Washington, D.C., USA, last accessed at Fraunhofer ISE (2015): Current and Future Cost of Photovoltaics. Long-term Scenarios for Market Development, System Prices and LCOE of Utility-Scale PV Systems

29 Selected References Hohmeyer, O.H., Bohm, S. (2015): Trends toward 100% renewable electricity supply in Germany and Europe: a paradigm shift in energy policies: Trends toward 100% renewable electricity supply in Germany and Europe; in: Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, Vol. 4, No. 1, pp Howells, M., Rogner, H., Strachan, N., Heaps, C., Huntington, H., Kypreos, S., Hughes, A., Silveira, S., DeCarolis, J., Bazillian, M., Roehrl, A. (2011): OSeMOSYS: The Open Source Energy Modeling System: An introduction to its ethos, structure and development; in: Energy Policy, Sustainability of biofuels, Vol. 39, No. 10, pp IEA (2009): Transport, Energy and CO2; Moving Towards Sustainability, Paris, France, last accessed at Transport, Energy and CO2. IPCC (2014a): Climate change 2014: mitigation of climate change: Working Group III contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; New York, NY: Cambridge University Press

Designing a Global Energy System Based on 100% Renewables for 2050

35 th USAEE/IAEE North American Conference, Vienna Designing a Global Energy System based on 100% Renewables for 2050 GENeSYS-MOD: An Application of the Open-Source Energy Modeling System (OSeMOSYS) Session