Energy and Water: Managing The Long-Term Power Portfolio in the Face of Changing Cooling Water Supplies

Transcription

1 Energy and Water: Managing The Long-Term Power Portfolio in the Face of Changing Cooling Water Supplies Peter H. Kobos, Vincent Tidwell*, Leonard A. Malczynski, Geoffrey T. Klise & William E. Hart June 24, nd IAEE International Conference San Francisco, CA *Principal Investigator. Thanks also go to Thomas Lowry for his assistance. Sandia is a multiprogram laboratory operated by Sandia Corporation, a Lockheed Martin Company, for the United States Department of Energy s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-AC04-94AL SAND C

2 Energy Water Modeling Energy and Water Technology & Decision Options Power Plant Level Cooling Types Water Consumption and Withdrawal Fuel Portfolio Competing Water Demands National Level, NERC, State, County-Level Analysis Scenario Analysis

3 Model Objective Develop a decision support framework integrated energy-water planning and management targets the needs of energy and water producers, resource managers, regulators, and decision makers at the federal, state and local levels Direct what-if analysis and scenario exploration around coupled energy-water issues: Electrical power generation portfolio, Cooling options for thermoelectric power, Power/Water conservation, Spatial trends in power and water demand, and Competition between electrical power generation and other water demand sectors (present day to 2030+)

4 Integrated Water-Energy Planning: Plant-Level Analysis Model Integrated Water-Energy Planning: Plant-Level Analysis Model Water Demand by Sector Summaries and Detail: from the National Level to the Power Plant GDP, Population Growth Changes Technology Deployment Scenarios

5 Project Impetus Energy-Water Roadmap findings: Reduce fresh water consumption in electric power generation Improved water efficiency in alternative fuels production Treatment and use of non-traditional water for energy development Integrated energy and water resource planning and management

6 Multiple Complex Interacting Systems

7 Employing Multiple Reference Systems (Population, Electricity, Water) Watershed Analysis National to Local Watersheds Availability of Uncommitted Water Energy & Water Issues Electricity Demand and Technology-Specific Analysis Census Tract-level Electricity Demand Electricity Region specific Electricity Technology-specific water use (consumption and withdrawal)

8 Supply and Demand Electricity Electricity Supply Modeled using egrid database of all power plants in the U.S. Electricity Demand Based on Per Capita Demand, at the Census tract level Growth at the Census tract level to capture regional development trends Water Water Supply Based on available information (U.S. Geological Survey & other sources) Groundwater Surface water Other Water Demand Based on sector-specific demand for water Municipal Industrial Thermoelectric Mining Livestock Agriculture

9 Detail Level of the Analysis: From the Census tract and Watershed Level to National Level Summaries Analysis By Region US Totals NERC Regions State Level County Level Analysis By Topic Energy Water GDP Population

10 Framework for Multi-Scale Analysis: The Challenge of Integrating Different Reference Sets Political boundaries (gray lines) Electric power grid (yellow lines) Watershed boundaries (orange shaded region)

11 Electricity Supply 4841 individual plants Plant-level criteria e.g., fuel type, build date, size, cooling type, etc. Built a Power Plant Replacement Module (PPMR) accounts for retirements and replacements over time

12 Change in electricity demand Electricity Demand Census tract-level Electricity Demand Dark blue is an increase of 2,500 MW

13 Water Supply Ratio of mean surface water flow to demand Scale White <3 Lt. Blue <10 Dk. Blue >10

14 Water Demand Sector-level Water Demand Moderate Growth Scenario (thermoelectric water use) outpaces all other water sectors Home US Totals Energy by Fuel Water by Supply million gallon/da 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Change in Water Use Municipal Industry Thermoelectric *Municipal *Industry *Therm oelectric New consumptive use is very modest* Energy for Water GDP Controls Population Cont. Energy Controls Water Controls million gallon/da 2,500 Jan 01, 2004 Jan 01, 2009 Jan 01, 2014 Jan 01, 2019 Jan 01, 2024 Jan 01, ,000 1,500 1, Change in Water Consumption Jan 01, 2004 Jan 01, 2014 Jan 01, 2024 Chanage in Water Consumption Municipal Chanage in Water Consumption Industrial Chanage in Water Consumption Thermo *Chanage in Water Consumption Municipal *Chanage in Water Consumption Industrial *Chanage in Water Consumption Thermo *Baseline scenario assumes a growth in population (e.g., the scenario assumes the same distribution of fuel types and same distribution of cooling types present as today. Construction of this many new once through plants may be unlikely, but provides a baseline.

15 Model Controls: Technology Scenario Mapping Power Plant Cooling Technology: Share of New and Replaced Plants using Specified Technologies. Coal Power Plant Cooling (Share of Total Plants) Natural Gas Plant Cooling US Totals Once Through Cooling Tower Cooling Pond Air Cooling Once Through Cooling Tower Cooling Pond NERC Regions State Level Utility & Non Power Plants Oil Plant Cooling Nuclear Cooling GDP Once Through Cooling Tower Cooling Pond Once Through Cooling Tower Population Energy Water Replacement of decommissioned plants Replace with current cooling system Retrofit with cooling tower

16 Model Controls: Technology Scenario Mapping New Water Demand for the U.S. North American Reliability Council (NERC) regions Ẇater Demand by NERC Region 90,000 Home 60,000 Energy by NERC GDP Controls MGD 30,000 Current Reference Population Cont. 0 ASCC ERCOT FRCC HICC MRO NPCC RFC SERC SPP WECC Energy Controls NERC regions Water Controls New Thermoelectric Water Demand Compared to All Other Water Demands million gallon/da 20,000 15,000 10,000 Thermoelectric All Other Demand 5,000 0 ASCC ERCOT FRCC HICC MRO NPCC RFC SERC SPP WECC NERC regions

17 Baseline Scenario: National Increase power plant capacity based on EIA projections (~35% in 27 years) New plants have same fuel/cooling type distribution as current Home Water by Sector Energy by Fuel Plant Renewal Energy for Water GDP Controls Population Cont. Energy Controls Water Controls U.S. Electrical Power Plant Capacity MW 2,000,000 1,800,000 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 Jan 01, 2004 Jan 01, 2009 Jan 01, 2014 Jan 01, 2019 Jan 01, 2024 Jan 01, 2029 Current Reference

18 Baseline Scenario: National Roughly one-half of new water demands may target surface water supplies Home US Totals Energy by Fuel Water by Sector GDP Controls million gallon/da 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 Change in Water Use by Supply Change in GW Use Change in SW Use Change in Non Potable Use Population Cont. 0 Energy Controls Jan 01, 2004 Jan 01, 2009 Jan 01, 2014 Jan 01, 2019 Jan 01, 2024 Jan 01, 2029 Water Controls

19 Baseline Scenario: NERC Region Installed Electrical Capacity (Megawatts, MW) for the U.S. North American Reliability Council (NERC) regions. Home Water by NERC GDP Controls Population Cont. Energy Controls Water Controls NERC Region All NERC regions 6 Fuels per NERC Region All Fuels 6 Plant Capacity by NERC Region and Fuel Type Plant Capacity by NERC Region and Fuel Type MW 500, , , ,000 MW 300, , , , , ,000 0 Coal Gas Nuclear Oil Geothermal Water Wind Other 50,000 0 ASCC ERCOT FRCC HICC MRO NPCC RFC SERC SPP WECC Fuel types NERC regions

20 Cooling Tower Scenario: County Total Change in Water Use Dark blue is an increase of 400 Million Gallons per Day Baseline Forecast for 2030 Forecast for 2030 using recirculating cooling towers (no once though or cooling pond systems)

21 Decommissioning Scenario: National Replace decommissioned plants with cooling towers Total water use (consumption + return flows) decreases Home US Totals Energy by Fuel Water by Supply Energy for Water million gallon/da 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, ,000 million gallon/da 2,500 Change in Water Use Jan 01, 2004 Jan 01, 2009 Jan 01, 2014 Jan 01, 2019 Jan 01, 2024 Jan 01, 2029 Change in Water Consumption Municipal Industry Thermoelectric *Municipal *Industry *Thermoelectric Water consumption by thermoelectric production increases yet again GDP Controls Population Cont. Energy Controls Water Controls 2,000 1,500 1, Chanage in Water Consumption Municipal Chanage in Water Consumption Industrial Chanage in Water Consumption Thermo *Chanage in Water Consumption Municipal *Chanage in Water Consumption Industrial *Chanage in Water Consumption Thermo Jan 01, 2004 Jan 01, 2014 Jan 01, 2024

22 Other Capabilities: Regional Analysis HOME PROJECT DESCRIPTION WATERSHED MAPS TEMPERATURE IMPACT MODEL CONTACTS HOME PROJECT DESCRIPTION WATERSHED MAPS TEMPERATURE IMPACT MODEL CONTACTS McKenzie OUTPUTS Main Stem Tualitan Willamette Fish Thresholds Temperature Power Generation Calibration This model is intended to simulate the effects and impacts on temperature of different management, restoration, and operation Cougar Reservoir 50 scenarios on and within the Willamette Basin. Molalla 45 Clackamas Base Case Simulation Current Simulation developed in collaboration by Sandia National Laboratories US Army Corps of Engineers David Evans and Associates The Willamette Partnership EcoTrust Key Model Inputs 35 Upper Willamette Reservoir Operations Power Generation (MW) Shading Restoration Outfall Modifications 15 Long Tom 4. Demographics Conservation Measures Economic Costs Coast Fork Willamette Key Model Outputs North 1. 7-day Moving Santiam Average 2. Source Heat South Loading Santiam 3. Costs per kcal 4. Areas of McKenzie Greatest Impact 5. Other Ecosystem Benefits Middle Fork Willamette Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Time BACK to MODEL OUTPUTS CLICK Text the in "PLAY" this area button will at prompt the CLICK top-left users on a how of watershed the to screen proceed CLICK for through this application. CLICK on any of the GOLD buttons to proceed. CLICK to more any any RUN GOLD information. button to proceed. GOLD the model. button CLICK Words to proceed. the in gray "BACK" are button not active. to return to the watershed screen. View the To RUN results the by model going CLICK to the on results the GOLD page for "TEMPERATURE that watershed IMPACT or viewing MODEL" the button summary on top page navigation for the entire bar. basin. Willamette River Basin Model Development/Contact: Thomas S. Lowry, SNL

23 Closing Remarks Modeling Tool(s) allows for multi-scale and multi-temporal analyses Technologies Electrical power generation portfolio Cooling options for thermoelectric power Power/Water conservation Temporal & Spatial Trends Population Growth Electricity and Water demand Competition between electrical power generation and other water demand sectors (present day to 2030+)