The Transition to Sustainable Energy in an Era of Upheaval

Transcription

1 The Transition to Sustainable Energy in an Era of Upheaval Daniel Kammen Energy and Resources Group, Goldman School of Public Policy & Department of Nuclear Engineering Director, Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory University of California, Berkeley Science Envoy for the U. S. State Department Rutgers University Energy Institute, May 3, 2017

2 Takeaway information rich messages: 1. The 2 degree pathway (or more) is still achievable 2. Scientific and technical transformations are critical to enabling a sustainable energy system, but it is social and policy innovation that provides the killer app for innovation and change This is true on-grid and off-grid in both industrialized and industrializing nations

3 A revolution in climate politics U.S.- China Joint Announcement on Climate Change, 2014

4 INDC Commitments in the Paris Accords Innovations not yet envisioned 4

5 What we need to do: Fuss 5et al.

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7 A pathway to sustainability 7

8 Summary 8

9 Power System Models China, 4/2016 WECC (Western North America) 5/2012 Kosovo 3/2013 Malaysia, 1/2013 Chile 4/2014 Nicaragua: 6/2014 East African Power Pool (EAPP): 1. Kenya (6/2016) 2. (Selection underway) India, Planned: 10/2017

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11 The Solar Energy Industry is an International Partnership

12 Energy Storage is Not Just Batteries Natural gas (without or with storage) Traditional and pumped hydropower Flywheels Flow batteries

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14 SWITCH Model Description Analytics n,m min (c i ). NPV i,k=1 TC k (c i ) Total Cost TC k = Capital Cost i Capacity (c i ) + [Variable Cost i Capacity (c i ) CF i 8760] n Capacity (c i ) Peak Contribution i i=1 n Annual Peak Demand [1 + Reserve Margin] [Capacity (c i ) CF i 8760] Annual Load i=1 Annual Load Spill Factor i=1 Total Resource Potental i n [Capacity (c i ) CF i 8760] m k=1 Capacity (c i ) 14

15 Dispatch in 2050: Flexibility and variable renewables dominate Storage almost exclusively moves solar to the night Geothermal only remaining substantial baseload WECC Electricity Dispatch in 2050 (GW) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Hour of Day (PST) Nuclear Geothermal Biopower Coal Coal CCS Gas (baseload) Gas CCS Gas (intermediate) Gas (peaker) Storage (discharging) Hydro (non-pumped) Solar Wind Storage (charging) Demand 15

16 Pathways for Western North America

17 Example: the impact of Natural Gas Leakage on carbon budgets Johnstone and Kammen, 2017 in press

18 In China even aggressive wind, solar and storage learning alone is not enough to phase out coal 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% wind hydro nuclear storage solar gas ccs gas coal ccs coal 0% Business as Usual BAU with Carbon cap Current aggressive solar and wind continued IPCC 2050 (80% cut in carbon)

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20 One Carbon-Negative Pathway: for Study Sanchez and Kammen, 20

21 One Carbon-Negative Pathway: for Study Sanchez and Kammen, 2016

22 One Carbon-Negative Pathway: for Study Sanchez and Kammen, 2016

23 One Carbon-Negative Pathway: for Study Sanchez and Kammen, 2016

24 Case Study: Photovoltaics to Satisfy Urban Transportation Needs 24/49

25 Urban Transport Electrification Bloomberg New Energy Finance. Electric Vehicles: Revolutionizing Energy

26 Urban Transportation Energy Consumption Kammen, Daniel M., and Deborah A. Sunter. "City-integrated renewable energy for urban sustainability." Science (2016):

27 87 Global Cities Considered GoogleMaps: UITP Millenium Cities

28 Photovoltaic Coverage Needs u transport = e transport ρ urban u solar = η PVG % PVCoverage Required = u transport u solar u = energy density e = energy per capita ρ = population density G = solar insolation Sunter, D., Berkeley, P., and Kammen, D., City-Integrated Photovoltaics to Satisfy Urban Transportation Energy Needs, WIT Transactions on Ecology and the Environment, 204 (2016):

29 Private Passenger Vehicle Use Predicts Feasibility of PV-Powered Transportation Sunter, D., Berkeley, P., and Kammen, D., City-Integrated Photovoltaics to Satisfy Urban Transportation Energy Needs, WIT Transactions on Ecology and the Environment, 204 (2016):

30 The Kaya Identity: An IPAT for Transportation C = ( C E E V) LDV propulsion GHG intensity ( V D D T T) Per capita LDV transport use GHG emission rate (!C ). is expressed as the product of two sets of variables representing the GHG intensity and per-capita rate of LDV use. Current policy discussion is dominated by attention to the first set, propulsion GHG intensity (gco 2 VKT -1, where VKT is vehicle-kilometers traveled). This set can be improved by decreasing fuel carbon intensity, C/E (gco 2 MJ -1 ), and decreasing energy intensity, E/V (MJ VKT -1 ) D = distance T = number of trips.

31 Apte, Sager, Lemoine and Kammen, Environmental Research Letters, 2011

32 Oakland EcoBlock - ZNE and Zero Carbon Retrofit Pilot Project Community Solar PV Micro Grid Waste Water Capture/Reuse California Energy Commission Grant

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34 Off-grid Electricity Enabled by Storage and Efficient Lights, but Impossible without secure mobile money

35 Information Technology Enables Transformative Energy Access Technologies

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37 Jones and Kammen,

38 New York San Francisco Bay Area Chicago Dallas

39 Jones and Kammen,

40 Takeaway message: Scientific and technical transformations are critical to enabling a sustainable energy system, but it is the energy-information nexus that provides the killer app for change

41 Resources: Website: