Renovation Tracks for Europe up to 2050

Transcription

1 Renovation Tracks for Europe up to 2050 Kjell Bettgenhäuser Berlin, October

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3 Contents Background Scope & Scenarios Methodology Main Results Conclusions 3

4 Background "The energy consumption of houses and buildings taking into account the whole lifecycle is responsible for 40% of total EU energy consumption and is the main contributor to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions [...]. Therefore reducing energy consumption during the whole lifecycle of the buildings is an effective action against climate change and will also contribute to decreasing the EU s energy import dependence." Source: EC 4

5 Scope Five climate zones EU27 Northern Western Southern North-Eastern South-Eastern 5

6 Scope Floor area distribution Heated floor area per zone Northern 5% South Eastern 5% North Eastern 8% Southern 19% Western 63% Floor area per zone [m²] Reference buildings Gastro 3% Education Health 5% 4% Trade 9% Others 3% Single family houses 46% Office, Administrati on 9% Multi family houses 21% Distribution of floor area per building type [%] 6

7 Scenarios Definition of 3 renovation tracks: Track 1: Shallow Renovation, low RES contribution - Fast renovation & average ambition level; low use of renewable energy - Market failures - Retrofit rate of 3.0% Track 2: Target Scenario - Shallow Renovation, high RES share - Average speed & average ambition level - Market failures - Limited focus on energy efficiency; high use of renewable energy - Retrofit rate of 2.3% Track 3: Target Scenario Deep Renovation, moderate RES share - Average speed & high EE ambition level - High focus on energy efficiency - Combined with moderate use of renewable energy - Retrofit rate of 2.3% 7

8 Scenarios Track 1: Shallow Renovation, low RES contribution Track 2: Target Scenario Shallow Renovation, high RES share Track 3: Target Scenario Deep Renovation, moderate RES share 8

9 Methodology 9

10 Methodology GHG Emissions Energy demand calculations Energy Service Final Energy Primary Energy Input Schematic Illustration of the scope for the Built-Environment-Analysis-Model BEAM². Source: [CEN/TR 15615] 10

11 Methodology Apart from building stock data input/assumptions are required for: (selection) - Retrofit-, new building and demolition rates -New building and retrofit qualities -Future HVAC systems -Efficiencies of HVAC systems -Energy price developments -Investment costs -GHG Factors -Many more parameters 11

12 . Main results Final energy for space heating -80% Final Energy for heating EU27 [TWh/a] without new buildings for the proposed EU Tracks 12

13 . Main results Total CO 2 emissions -88% Total C0 2 -Emissions EU27 [Mt/a] for the proposed EU Tracks 13

14 . Main results Total CO 2 emissions 14

15 . Main results Energy costs space heating -55% 15

16 . Main results Total yearly costs billion Track 1: Shallow Renovation Track 2: Shallow Renovation + RES Track 3: Deep Renovation Total yearly Costs EU27 (accumulated) between scenarios [billion /a] for the proposed EU Tracks 16

17 Conclusions - The 88%-91% building sector CO 2 -emission savings target by 2050 (EU Roadmap) can be met by the two target tracks - Final energy savings for space heating of approx. 75%-80% can be realized by the deep renovation track - The deep renovation track meets the CO 2 -emissions and final energy targets at moderate additional costs (compared to shallow renovation) - Highest job creation in the deep renovation scenario due to highest investments 17

18 Discussion 18

19 Kjell Bettgenhäuser Ecofys Germany E: T: