Assessment of policy options for the review of Directive 2010/31/EU. Final report

Transcription

1 Assessment of policy options for the review of Directive 2010/31/EU Final report Authors: Thomas Boermans, Kjell Bettgenhäuser, Ashok John, Jan Grözinger April 2016

2 EUROPEAN COMMISSION Directorate-General for Energy Directorate C Renewables, research and Innovation, Energy Efficiency Unit C.3 Energy Efficiency ENER-C3@ec.europa.eu European Commission B-1049 Brussels

3 EUROPEAN COMMISSION Assessment of policy options for review of Directive 2010/31/EU Final report 2016 Directorate-General for Energy

4 Europe Direct is a service to help you find answers to your questions about the European Union. Freephone number (*): (*) The information given is free, as are most calls (though some operators, phone boxes or hotels may charge you). LEGAL NOTICE This document has been prepared for the European Commission however it reflects the views only of the authors, and the Commission cannot be held responsible for any use which may be made of the information contained therein. More information on the European Union is available on the Internet ( Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 2016 ISBN doi: / European Union,

5 Table of contents 1. OBJECTIVE OF THIS STUDY GENERAL DESCRIPTION OF BEAM² MODEL Model inputs Model processing Model outputs MODEL INPUTS Building stock disaggregation Building stock characteristics Additional inputs Specific scenario parameters OVERVIEW AND KEY CONCLUSIONS ANNEX 1: DETAILED RESULTS ANNEX 2: REFERENCES

6 List of figures Figure 1: Considered reference zones for Europe Figure 2 Average ambient temperatures of the reference zones per month Figure 3: Considered share of already retrofitted residential buildings [%] Figure 4: Considered share of already retrofitted non-residential buildings [%] Figure 5: Floor area distribution in residential buildings, per zone and reference building [Mio. m²] Figure 6: Floor area distribution in residential buildings, per zone and reference building [%] Figure 7: Floor area distribution in residential buildings, per zone and age group [%] Figure 8: Floor area distribution in non-residential buildings, per zone and reference building [Mio. m²] Figure 9: Floor area distribution in non-residential buildings, per zone and reference building [%] Figure 10: Floor area distribution in residential buildings, per zone and age group, [%] Figure 11: Heating system stock for single family houses, per reference zone and heating system type Figure 12: Heating system stock for multi-family houses, per reference zone and heating system type Figure 13: DHW system stock for single family houses, per reference zone and heating system type Figure 14: DHW system stock for Multi-family houses, per reference zone and heating system type Figure 15: Heating system stock for non-residential buildings, per reference zone and heating system type Figure 16: DHW system stock for non-residential buildings, per reference zone and heating system type Figure 17: Space heating consumption in residential buildings, per zone and reference building, [TWh] Figure 18: Space heating consumption in residential buildings, per zone and energy carrier, [TWh] Figure 19: Electricity consumption for cooling for residential buildings per zone, [TWh] Figure 20: Space heating consumption in non-residential buildings, per zone and reference building, [TWh] Figure 21: Space heating consumption in non-residential buildings, per zone and energy carrier, [TWh] Figure 22: Electricity consumption for cooling for non-residential buildings per zone, [TWh] Figure 23: New construction rates per reference zone, residential, all scenarios, Figure 24: Full thermal renovation equivalent rate of all scenarios for EU28, residential, Figure 25: New construction rates per reference zone, non-residential, all scenarios, Figure 26: Full thermal renovation equivalent rate of all scenarios for EU28, non-residential, Figure 27: Heating system exchange rates for EU28, Figure 28: Heating system sales prediction for new buildings per year per system, Figure 29: Heating system sales prediction for existing buildings per year per system, Figure 30: Comparison of the different scenarios, final energy, total for EU 28 [TW/a] Figure 31: Comparison of the different scenarios, primary energy, total EU28 [TW/a] Figure 32: Comparison of the different scenarios, CO2-emissions, total for EU28 [Mt/a] Figure 33: CO2-emissions, total for Scenario 1 to 3 compared to building sector specific targets Figure 34: Comparison of the different scenarios, total investments for EU28 [bn /a] Figure 35: Comparison of the different scenarios, total energy expenditures for EU28 [bn /a] Figure 36: Scenario 1, Floor area per building type [Mio.m²] Figure 37: Scenario 1, Final energy per heating system [TWh/a] Figure 38: Scenario 1, on-site renewable energy sources (based on useful energy) [TWh/a] Figure 39: Scenario 1, Primary energy per application of the EPBD [TWh/a] Figure 40: Scenario 1, CO2-emissions per application of the EPBD [Mt/a] Figure 41: Scenario 1, Investments / capital expenditures [bn /a] Figure 42: Scenario 1, Energy expenditures [bn /a] Figure 43: Scenario 2, Floor area per building type [Mio.m²] Figure 44: Scenario 2, Final energy per heating system [TWh/a] Figure 45: Scenario 2, on-site renewable energy sources (based on useful energy) [TWh/a]

7 Figure 46: Scenario 2, Primary energy per application of the EPBD [TWh/a]...91 Figure 47: Scenario 2, CO2-emissions per application of the EPBD[Mt/a]...92 Figure 48: Scenario 2, Investments / capital expenditures [bn /a]...92 Figure 49: Scenario 2, Energy expenditures [bn /a]...93 Figure 50: Scenario 3, Floor area per building type [Mio.m²]...94 Figure 51: Scenario 3, Final energy per heating system [TWh/a]...94 Figure 52: Scenario 3, on-site renewable energy sources (based on useful energy) [TWh/a]...95 Figure 53: Scenario 3, Primary energy per application of the EPBD [TWh/a]...95 Figure 54: Scenario 3, CO2-emissions per application of the EPBD [Mt/a]...96 Figure 55: Scenario 3, Investments / capital expenditures [bn /a]...96 Figure 56: Scenario 3, Energy expenditures [bn /a]

8 List of tables Table 1: Parameters for Single Family House (SFH) Table 2: Parameters for Small Multi Family House (SMFH) Table 3: Parameters for Large Multi Family House (LMFH) Table 4: Parameters for Office Buildings (OFB) Table 5: Parameters for Trade and Retail Building (TRB) Table 6: Parameters for Education Building (EDB) Table 7: Parameters for Touristic Buildings (TOB) Table 8: Parameters for Health Buildings (HEB) Table 9: Parameters for Other non-residential buildings (ONB) Table 10: Thermal Qualities per Reference Zone Residential Buildings, not renovated Table 11: Thermal Qualities per Reference Zone Residential Buildings, renovated Table 12: Thermal Qualities per Reference Zone Non-Residential Buildings, not renovated Table 13: Thermal Qualities per Reference Zone Non-Residential Buildings, renovated Table 14: Conversion efficiencies for heating and domestic hot water systems Table 15: Cost factors per reference zone Table 16: Insulation investments, new buildings, NORTHERN Table 17: Window investments, new buildings, NORTHERN Table 18: Heating system investments, new buildings, NORTHERN Table 19: Solar thermal systems, new buildings, NORTHERN Table 20: Ventilation system investments, new buildings, NORTHERN Table 21: Cooling system investment, new buildings, NORTHERN Table 22: Insulation investment, retrofit, NORTHERN Table 23: Window investments, retrofit, NORTHERN Table 24: Heating system investments, retrofit, NORTHERN Table 25: Solar thermal systems, retrofit, NORTHERN Table 26: Ventilation system investments, retrofit, NORTHERN Table 27: Cooling system investment, retrofit, NORTHERN Table 28: Insulation investments, new buildings, WESTERN Table 29: Window investments, new buildings, WESTERN Table 30: Heating system investments, new buildings, WESTERN Table 31: Solar thermal systems, new buildings, WESTERN Table 32: Ventilation system investments, new buildings, WESTERN Table 33: Cooling system investment, new buildings, WESTERN Table 34: Insulation investments, retrofit, WESTERN Table 35: Window investments, retrofit, WESTERN Table 36: Heating system investments, retrofit, WESTERN Table 37: Solar thermal systems, retrofit, WESTERN Table 38: Ventilation system investments, retrofit, WESTERN Table 39: Cooling system investment, retrofit, WESTERN Table 40: Insulation investments, new buildings, NORTH-EASTERN Table 41: Window investments, new buildings, NORTH-EASTERN Table 42: Heating system investments, new buildings, NORTH-EASTERN Table 43: Solar thermal systems, new buildings, NORTH-EASTERN Table 44: Ventilation system investments, new buildings, NORTH-EASTERN Table 45: Cooling system investment, new buildings, NORTH-EASTERN

9 Table 46: Insulation investments, retrofit, NORTH-EASTERN...50 Table 47: Window investments, retrofit, NORTH-EASTERN...51 Table 48: Heating system investments, retrofit, NORTH-EASTERN...51 Table 49: Solar thermal systems, retrofit, NORTH-EASTERN...52 Table 50: Ventilation system investments, retrofit, NORTH-EASTERN...52 Table 51: Cooling system investment, retrofit, NORTH-EASTERN...53 Table 52: Insulation investments, new buildings, SOUTH-EASTERN...53 Table 53: Window investments, new buildings, SOUTH-EASTERN...53 Table 54: Heating system investments, new buildings, SOUTH-EASTERN...54 Table 55: Solar thermal systems, new buildings, SOUTH-EASTERN...54 Table 56: Ventilation system investments, new buildings, SOUTH-EASTERN...55 Table 57: Cooling system investment, new buildings, SOUTH-EASTERN...55 Table 58: Insulation investments, retrofit, SOUTH-EASTERN...55 Table 59: Window investments, retrofit, SOUTH-EASTERN...56 Table 60: Heating system investments, retrofit, SOUTH-EASTERN...56 Table 61: Solar thermal systems, retrofit, SOUTH-EASTERN...57 Table 62: Ventilation system investments, retrofit, SOUTH-EASTERN...57 Table 63: Cooling system investment, retrofit, SOUTH-EASTERN...58 Table 64: Insulation investments, new buildings, SOUTHERN...58 Table 65: Window investments, new buildings, SOUTHERN...58 Table 66: Heating system investments, new buildings, SOUTHERN...59 Table 67: Solar thermal systems, new buildings, SOUTHERN...59 Table 68: Ventilation system investments, new buildings, SOUTHERN...60 Table 69: Cooling system investment, new buildings, SOUTHERN...60 Table 70: Insulation investments, retrofit, SOUTHERN...60 Table 71: Window investments, retrofit, SOUTHERN...61 Table 72: Heating system investments, retrofit, SOUTHERN...61 Table 73: Solar thermal systems, retrofit, SOUTHERN...62 Table 74: Ventilation system investments, retrofit, SOUTHERN...62 Table 75: Cooling system investment, retrofit, SOUTHERN [ /kwh]...63 Table 76: Energy prices per energy carrier for 2014 [ ct/kwh]...63 Table 77: Energy price increase rates [%/a] for electricity, biomass and district heating until Table 78: Annual energy price increase for Gas, Oil and Coal fur EU Table 79: Total primary energy factor per energy carrier for Table 80: CO2-emission factors per energy carrier for Table 81: Thermal qualities (U-values), NORTHERN...69 Table 82: Thermal qualities (U-values), WESTERN...70 Table 83: Thermal qualities (U-values), EASTERN...70 Table 84: Thermal qualities (U-values), SOUTH-EASTERN...71 Table 85: Thermal qualities (U-values), SOUTHERN...71 Table 86: Final energy consumption development for lighting in non-residential buildings [TWh]...75 Table 87: Scenario input ventilation systems with heat recovery, residential/non-residential, all zones...78 Table 88: Scenario input solar thermal systems, residential, all zones

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11 1. Objective of this study Article 19 of the EPBD states that the Directive shall be evaluated by 1 January 2017 at the latest, "in the light of the experience gained and progress made during its application." The European Commission tendered the evaluation of the application of the Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD) and assessment of policy options and resulting impact in the framework of the EPBD review (ENER/C3/ /FV under the Multiple Framework Service Contract MOVE/ENER/SRD.1/ Lot 3). The project was executed by a consortium of Ecofys (project lead) Tractebel (framework manager) and Sweco. The present report informs about the assumptions and results of modelling activities related to the assessment of policy options that were performed with and derived from the BEAM² model. Please note that additional modelling and calculations were performed outside of the abovementioned contract, without use of the BEAM² model. The latter are therefore not part of the report. 11

12 2. General description of BEAM² model BEAM² is a bottom-up balancing model based on building physics that applies policy options and measures to a building stock inventory described in a disaggregated manner. The following summarises the key elements of the model: inputs (Section 2.1), processing (Section 2.2) and outputs (Section 2.3). A more thorough description of the model can be found "Integrated Assessment for Building Stocks A Technical, Economical and Ecological Analysis", Kjell Bettgenhäuser, 2013, ISBN Model inputs For the purpose of the Impact Assessment, the building stock was disaggregated following: 5 reference zones and climates (Section3.1.1), 9 building types (Section 3.1.2), 5 age groups (Section 3.1.3), 2 sub-groups of retrofit level (Section 3.1.4). The following inputs were established for each segment of the above described building stock disaggregation: floor areas (Section 3.2.1), thermal characteristics of: o the building envelope for walls, windows, floor and roof (Section 3.2.2), o space and water heating systems (Section 3.2.3), o space cooling (Section 3.2.4), o ventilation (Section 3.2.5), Additional inputs were defined for each of the 5 reference zones: For calibration purposes, energy consumptions for space heating and cooling per reference zone (Section 3.3.1), For the calculation of investments, capital expenditures, specific investment cost per reference zone for new buildings and retrofit of existing buildings (Section 3.3.2), For the calculation of energy expenditures, energy price per kwh (Section 3.3.3), For the conversion into primary energy, primary energy factors per energy carrier (Section 3.3.4), For the calculation of greenhouse gas emissions, CO 2 -emission factors per energy carrier (Section 3.3.5). In addition, specific scenario parameters were established to describe the impact of the different policy options (Section 3.4). These parameters are not the result of the economical optimization process; instead, they are used as an additional input to the model. They are based on Ecofys's expert assessment, crosschecked with available literature and calibrated with available top-down statistical data. 12

13 Three key concepts are used to define the scenarios: The full thermal renovation rate, which reflects the amount of buildings that undergo a renovation and upgrade of the total building envelope (roof, external walls, windows and ground floor). It is developed as an equivalent rate of renovations that include all or only parts of these different components. The full thermal renovation rate is therefore an indicator that describes the number and scope of renovations of the building envelope, while not describing the ambition level (e.g. thickness of insulation) of the single measures. The technical building system exchange rate, The minimum requirements in application for new and existing buildings. 2.2 Model processing Based on the above detailed floor area inventory, differentiated by reference zone, building type, age group and retrofit level, for which space floor area and thermal characteristics are defined, the useful heating and cooling energy need is calculated following the calculation procedures of EN ISO Taking the parameters of the HVAC systems into account the final energy used by the building systems to cover the above useful energy need is calculated and calibrated with the available top-down statistical data. Apart from heating, hot water and cooling as well as the auxiliary energy for ventilation, heat recovery for heating and cooling systems (and lighting for nonresidential buildings) is addressed. Based on the final energy use, the primary energy and greenhouse gas emissions for all energy carriers are calculated by applying primary energy and greenhouse gas emission factors. The contribution of electricity generated from on-site photovoltaic system is determined and the net primary energy need calculated. The calculation process over the scenario time frame is organized as follows: Based on the initial floor area distribution along the different segments of the disaggregated building stock, the building stock which will be transformed in the future is projected. New buildings, demolition and retrofit programs for all or parts of these combinations are taken into account. All construction/renovation activities considered in year i have an effect starting in year i+1. Based on this, the energy costs per year and the investment costs for new buildings and retrofitted buildings are calculated. 13

14 2.3 Model outputs Based on the above processing, Annex I provides the following outputs at EU-28 level for the different scenarios: Floor Area (per building type), Final energy demand for heating (TWh/a) (per heating technology), Shares of on-site renewable energy source (TWh/a) (Wood, heat pumps, photovoltaic power generation and solar thermal energy), Primary energy demand (TWh/a) (space heating, domestic hot water, space cooling, auxiliary, lighting (non-residential), CO 2 -emissions (Mt/a) (space heating, hot water, cooling, auxiliary, lighting (non-residential), Total investments / capital expenditures (billion /a) (Building envelope and HVAC systems), Total energy expenditures (billion /a)) (space heating, hot water, cooling, auxiliary, lighting (non-residential). Key conclusions are given in Section 4. 14

15 3. Model inputs 3.1 Building stock disaggregation Reference zones and climates The building stock is divided into five climate zones for Europe. The countries within the respective reference zones 1 are shown in Figure 1. Figure 1: Considered reference zones for Europe (Source: [ECOFYS, 2012]) 1 All countries are assigned to one of the reference zones concerning the criteria of (i) climate conditions, (ii) building stock characteristics and (iii) cost structures and level of investment costs/energy costs. 15

16 Figure 2 shows the reference climate conditions in terms of weighted average ambient temperatures of the reference zones. Figure 2 Average ambient temperatures of the reference zones per month (Source: [Meteotest, 2012]) Reference Buildings The model requires the definition of reference buildings as representative average building types for all buildings in stock. Reference buildings are typical representatives with regard to the geometry of a building. The distribution in size of the reference buildings for the five reference zones is presented in Section Residential Reference buildings from [inspire, 2014] are used, which are: Single Family House (SFH) Small Multi Family House (SMFH) Large Multi Family House (LMFH) 16

17 The parameters and geometries for the chosen reference buildings are shown in Table 1, Table 2 and Table 3. Parameter Values Unit Total floor area 96 m² A/V ratio /m Average room height 2.5 m Exterior building volume 281 m³ Exterior walls 128 m² Windows 26 m² Cellar ceiling 52 m² Roof / upper ceiling 52 m² Table 1: Parameters for Single Family House (SFH) (Source: [inspire, 2014]) Parameter Values Unit Total floor area 500 m² A/V ratio 0.5 1/m Average room height 2.5 m Exterior building volume 1,672 m³ Exterior walls 513 m² Windows 128 m² Cellar ceiling 124 m² Roof / upper ceiling 124 m² Table 2: Parameters for Small Multi Family House (SMFH) (Source: [inspire, 2014]) Parameter Values Unit Total floor area 2,340 m² A/V ratio 0.3 1/m Average room height 2.5 m Exterior building volume 7,484 m³ Exterior walls 699 m² Windows 699 m² Cellar ceiling 462 m² Roof / upper ceiling 462 m² Table 3: Parameters for Large Multi Family House (LMFH) (Source: [inspire, 2014]) 17

18 Non-residential The reference buildings for non-residential buildings are defined along the Annex I.5 of the EPBD 2. The geometries are based on data from European Copper Institute (ECI) for the study Panorama of the European non-residential construction sector (2011): Office Building (OFB) Trade and Retail Building (TRB) Education Building (EDB) Touristic Buildings (TOB) Health Buildings (HEB) Other non-residential buildings (ONB) The parameters and geometries for the chosen reference buildings are shown in Table 4, Table 5, Table 6, Table 7, Table 8 and Table 9. Parameter Values Unit Total floor area 1,801 m² A/V ratio /m Average room height 2.6 m Exterior building volume 4,683 m³ Exterior walls 277 m² Windows 150 m² Cellar ceiling 360 m² Roof / upper ceiling 360 m² Table 4: Parameters for Office Buildings (OFB) (Source: [ECOFYS, 2011b]) Parameter Values Unit Total floor area 1,448 m² A/V ratio /m Average room height 3.6 m Exterior building volume 5,214 m³ Exterior walls 302 m² Windows 130 m² Cellar ceiling 724 m² Roof / upper ceiling 724 m² Table 5: Parameters for Trade and Retail Building (TRB) (Source: [ECOFYS, 2011b]) 2 Hospitals are listed under health buildings and hotels and restaurants under touristic buildings. Sport facilities are addressed with other non-res buildings. 18

19 Parameter Values Unit Total floor area 2,552 m² A/V ratio /m Average room height 2.6 m Exterior building volume 6,556 m³ Exterior walls 318 m² Windows 106 m² Cellar ceiling 1,216 m² Roof / upper ceiling 1,216 m² Table 6: Parameters for Education Building (EDB) (Source: [ECOFYS, 2011b]) Parameter Values Unit Total floor area 968 m² A/V ratio /m Average room height 3.00 m Exterior building volume 2,904 m³ Exterior walls 385 m² Windows 127 m² Cellar ceiling 323 m² Roof / upper ceiling 323 m² Table 7: Parameters for Touristic Buildings (TOB) (Source: [ECOFYS, 2011b]) Parameter Values Unit Total floor area 6,420 m² A/V ratio /m Average room height 2.60 m Exterior building volume 16,692 m³ Exterior walls 997 m² Windows 330 m² Cellar ceiling 1,605 m² Roof / upper ceiling 1,605 m² Table 8: Parameters for Health Buildings (HEB) (Source: [ECOFYS, 2011b]) 19

20 Parameter Values Unit Total floor area 2,434 m² A/V ratio /m Average room height 3.00 m Exterior building volume 9,500 m³ Exterior walls 682 m² Windows 2,014 m² Cellar ceiling 507 m² Roof / upper ceiling 507 m² Table 9: Parameters for Other non-residential buildings (ONB) (Source: [ECOFYS, 2011b]) Age groups The definition of age groups in stock is required to distinguish between different construction periods of buildings. The chosen age groups are: Pre From 2014 The distribution in size of the age groups for the five reference zones is presented in Section Retrofit Levels The stock is further disaggregated into two sub-groups, considering the thermal characteristics: "Renovated", "Not-renovated". This disaggregation enables the establishment of two levels of thermal characteristics for the considered segment. Already renovated buildings are not excluded from renovation by the model, but the not renovated buildings undergo renovation first. In the scenario calculation for both, residential and non-residential buildings and for each reference zone, one retrofit level (major renovation) will be used. The fact that not every renovation is a major renovation will be considered in the full thermal retrofit rates assumed for each specific scenario (Section 3.4). The thermal qualities assumed for residential and non-residential buildings of the "renovated" and "not renovated" cases are defined in Section

21 Residential Figure 3 shows the share of already retrofitted residential buildings per reference zone. Figure 3: Considered share of already retrofitted residential buildings [%] (Source: own calculation based on [ECOFYS, 2012], based on [Euroconstruct, 2005] with further updates and assumptions for period ) Non-Residential Figure 4 shows the share of already retrofitted non-residential buildings per reference zone. Figure 4: Considered share of already retrofitted non-residential buildings [%] (Source: own calculations for 2014 based on [Euroconstruct, 2005]) 21

22 3.2 Building stock characteristics Floor Areas The following figures give an overview on the floor area distribution along the reference zones of the study: Residential: o per reference buildings (Figure 5 and Figure 6), o per age group (Figure 7), Non-residential: o per reference buildings (Figure 8 and Figure 9), o per age group (Figure 10). Residential Figure 5: Floor area distribution in residential buildings, per zone and reference building [Mio. m²] (Source: own calculation based on [inspire, 2014], [IWU, 2015], [ENERDATA, ], [BPIE, 2015] and [Schimschar, 2015]) 22

23 Figure 6: Floor area distribution in residential buildings, per zone and reference building [%] (Source: own calculation based on [inspire, 2014], [IWU, 2015], [ENERDATA, ], [BPIE, 2015] and [Schimschar, 2015]) Figure 7: Floor area distribution in residential buildings, per zone and age group [%] (Source: own calculation based on [inspire, 2014], [IWU, 2015], [ENERDATA, ], [BPIE, 2015] and [Schimschar, 2015]) 23

24 Non-Residential Figure 8: Floor area distribution in non-residential buildings, per zone and reference building [Mio. m²] (Source: own calculation based on [inspire, 2014], [IWU, 2015], [ENERDATA, ], [BPIE, 2015] and [Schimschar, 2015]) Figure 9: Floor area distribution in non-residential buildings, per zone and reference building [%] (Source: own calculation based on [inspire, 2014], [IWU, 2015], [ENERDATA, ], [BPIE, 2015] and [Schimschar, 2015]) 24

25 Figure 10: Floor area distribution in residential buildings, per zone and age group, [%] (Source: own calculation based on [inspire, 2014], [IWU, 2015], [ENERDATA, ], [BPIE, 2015] and [Schimschar, 2015]) Thermal transmittance As described in the previous chapter of the retrofit levels, renovated and not renovated buildings are distinguished per reference zone. In the scenario calculations the influence of cold bridges will also be taken into account (additional 0.05 W/(m².K) for new buildings and 0.10 W/(m².K) for renovated buildings). Residential Table 10 shows the thermal transmittance (U-values in W/(m².K)) assumed for the building shell components (wall, window, floor and roof) for all age groups for the not renovated case whereas Table 11 shows the renovated case 3. 3 Note: The thermal qualities will be calibrated with top-down space heating consumption data in the course of the scenario calculation. 25

26 Pre 1945 Not renovated Table 10: North Western Eastern North- South- Eastern Thermal Qualities per Reference Zone Residential Buildings, not renovated (Source: own calculation based on [inspire, 2014]) South Wall Window Floor Roof Not renovated Wall Window Floor Roof Not renovated Wall Window Floor Roof Not renovated Wall Window Floor Roof

27 Pre 1945 Renovated North Western Eastern North- South- Eastern South Wall Window Floor Roof Renovated Wall Window Floor Roof Renovated Wall Window Floor Roof Renovated Wall Window Floor Roof Table 11: Thermal Qualities per Reference Zone Residential Buildings, renovated (Source: own calculation based on several sources [ECOFYS, 2012] 4 ) 4 Note: The thermal qualities were calibrated with top-down space heating consumption data in the course of the scenario calculation. 27

28 Non-residential Table 12 shows the thermal transmittance (U-values in W/(m².K)) assumed for the building shell components (wall, window, floor and roof) for all age groups for the not renovated case whereas Table 13 shows the renovated case. Pre 1945 Not renovated North Western Eastern North- South- Eastern South Wall Window Floor Roof Not renovated Wall Window Floor Roof Not renovated Wall Window Floor Roof Not renovated Wall Window Floor Roof Table 12: Thermal Qualities per Reference Zone Non-Residential Buildings, not renovated (Source: own calculation based on [inspire, 2014]) 28

29 Pre 1945 Renovated North Western Eastern North- South- Eastern South Wall Window Floor Roof Renovated Wall Window Floor Roof Renovated Wall Window Floor Roof Renovated Wall Window Floor Roof Table 13: Thermal Qualities per Reference Zone Non-Residential Buildings, renovated (Source: own calculation based on several sources [ECOFYS, 2012]) Space heating and domestic hot water heating systems The following figure shows the assumed existing stock of heating systems and domestic hot water (DHW) systems referring to heating energy consumption in the five reference zones for: single-family houses (Figure 11 and Figure 13), multi-family houses (Figure 12 and Figure 14), and non-residential buildings (cf. Figure 15 and Figure 16). The implementation of the heating system distribution will be performed according to the square meter distribution across the different reference building types and ages. 29

30 Following efficiencies will be assumed per heating system for residential and nonresidential and age classes (Table 14). Systems Heating systems Domestic hot water systems Table 14: Gas, c Gas, nc Oil, c Oil, nc Wood Coal HP, brine HP, Conversion efficiencies for heating and domestic hot water systems (Source: own calculation based on [Oehsen et al., 2014], [ECOFYS, 2013] 5, 6, 7 ) air EL DH Residential Figure 11: Heating system stock for single family houses, per reference zone and heating system type (Source: own calculation based on [ECOFYS, 2015b], [ECOFYS, 2013], [ECOFYS and IEEJ, 2015]) The following abbreviations are used for the heating system mix: c=condensing, nc=non-condensing, el=electricity, HP=heat pump, DH=district heat. CHP-systems are included in the district heat share (regional/local/small scale heating networks). The shares of micro-chp are negligible until today, only Germany is the only country in Europe with a very little share (a few 1,000 to 10,000 sales per year since approx. year 2000), see e.g. JRC (2012) "Background Report on Implementing the Cogeneration Directive, Delta EE (2013) "Seven things you need to know about Micro-CHP in Europe" or CODE2 Cogeneration Observatory and Dissemination Europe: Micro-CHP potential analysis European level report (December 2014). Geothermal heat is included with brine-hp (geo-hp). 30

31 Figure 12: Heating system stock for multi-family houses, per reference zone and heating system type (Source: own calculation based on [ECOFYS, 2015b], [ECOFYS, 2013], [ECOFYS and IEEJ, 2015]) The distribution per reference zone of the different domestic hot water systems for residential buildings are shown in the following tables. Figure 13: DHW system stock for single family houses, per reference zone and heating system type (Source: own calculation based on [ECOFYS, 2015b], [ECOFYS, 2013], [ECOFYS and IEEJ, 2015], [Eurostat 2015d]) 31

32 Figure 14: DHW system stock for Multi-family houses, per reference zone and heating system type (Source: own calculation based on [ECOFYS, 2015b], [ECOFYS, 2013], [ECOFYS and IEEJ, 2015]) Non-Residential Figure 15: Heating system stock for non-residential buildings, per reference zone and heating system type (Source: own calculation based on [ECOFYS, 2015b], [ECOFYS, 2013], [ECOFYS and IEEJ, 2015]) 32

33 The distribution of the different domestic hot water systems per reference zone for non-residential buildings is shown in the following table. Figure 16: DHW system stock for non-residential buildings, per reference zone and heating system type (Source: own calculation based on [ECOFYS, 2015b], [ECOFYS, 2013], [ECOFYS and IEEJ, 2015]) Cooling systems Cooling system in the stock are assumed with different seasonal efficiency ratios (SER) per climate zone 8, resulting in an average SER of the EU-28 of 3.2. For new systems or during an exchange, an average improvement of 40%, is leading to a SER of Ventilation In the residential sector we assume that 3% of the heating systems are equipped with ventilation system whereas the share in the non-residential sector is 45% Lighting (non-residential) According to the study Cost of Non-World, lighting in non-residential buildings is assumed to be around 286 TWh in 2013 for EU Solar PV In the BEAM² model, the PV power generation is not directly considered in the energy balance, but it is indirectly included by the CO 2 -emission factor for electricity Based on [inspire, 2014]. SERs: Northern Europe 3,3, Western Europe 2,4, Southern Europe 3,2, North-Eastern Europe 7,3 and South-Eastern Europe 5,65. Ecofys, 2015b 33

34 3.3 Additional inputs Space heating and cooling energy consumptions The following figures give an overview on the space heating energy consumptions in the reference zones per reference buildings (Figure 17 for residential and Figure 20 for non-residential) and per energy carrier (Figure 18 for residential and Figure 21 for non-residential). Figure 19 and Figure 22 shows the cooling energy consumption for residential and non-residential buildings. Residential Figure 17: Space heating consumption in residential buildings, per zone and reference building, [TWh] (Source: [inspire, 2014], [Eurostat, 2015a], [Schimschar, 2015] and [IWU, 2015]) 10 PV systems developments (rooftop and ground-mounted systems) are taken into account for the calculation of the CO 2-emission factor. 34

35 Figure 18: Space heating consumption in residential buildings, per zone and energy carrier, [TWh] (Source: [inspire, 2014], [Eurostat, 2015a], [Schimschar, 2015] and [IWU, 2015]) Figure 19: Electricity consumption for cooling for residential buildings per zone, [TWh] (Source: [inspire, 2014], [Eurostat, 2015a], [Schimschar, 2015] and [IWU, 2015]) 35

36 Non-residential Figure 20: Space heating consumption in non-residential buildings, per zone and reference building, [TWh] (Source: [inspire, 2014], [Eurostat, 2015a], [Schimschar, 2015] and [IWU, 2015]) Figure 21: Space heating consumption in non-residential buildings, per zone and energy carrier, [TWh] (Source: [inspire, 2014], [Eurostat, 2015a], [Schimschar, 2015] and [IWU, 2015]) 36

37 Figure 22: Electricity consumption for cooling for non-residential buildings per zone, [TWh] (Source: [inspire, 2014], [Eurostat, 2015a], [Schimschar, 2015] and [IWU, 2015]) Investment costs / capital expenditures The investment costs chapter is divided in the 5 reference zones (Northern, Western, North-Eastern, South-Eastern and South) and in the following cost categories: New buildings o Insulation o Windows o Heating Systems and domestic hot water 11 o Ventilation Systems o Cooling Systems Retrofit o Insulation o Windows o Heating Systems o Ventilation Systems o Cooling Systems The investment costs are derived from a study by order of the German Ministry of Economy and Energy BMWI 100% Wärme aus erneuerbaren Energien? Auf dem Weg zum Niedrigstenergiehaus im Gebäudebestand. 12 Therefore, investment costs are based on German average and are scaled to member states and to the five reference zones respectively (Northern, Western, North-Eastern, South-Eastern and South) by using BKI cost factors All on-site RES are accounted in the BEAM 2 model so far except PV. Additionally, investment costs for cooling are based on [ECOFYS, 2011a] The following abbreviations are used for the heating system mix: c=condensing, nc=non-condensing, el=electricity, HP=heat pump, DH=district heat. 37

38 A validation of these costs with the national cost-optimal reports has been done where possible. Reference Zone Cost factor Northern 1.13 Western 0.93 North-Eastern 0.56 South-Eastern 0.39 South 0.62 Table 15: Cost factors per reference zone (Source: [BKI, 2011]) Reference Zone: NORTHERN New buildings 1. Insulation The following table shows the insulation investments for the new building case. Parameter Unit Wall Roof Upper Ceiling Lower Ceiling Floor slab Ground wall Fix costs /m² Variable costs Table 16: /(cm.m²) Insulation investments, new buildings, NORTHERN 2. Windows The following table shows the window investments for the new building case. Parameter Efficiency 1 (U = 1.60; g = 0.63) Efficiency 2 (U = 1.30; g = 0.50) Efficiency 3 (U = 0.90; g = 0.50) Table 17: Window costs [ /m²] Window investments, new buildings, NORTHERN 38

39 3. Heating and Domestic Hot Water Systems The following table shows the heating system investments for the new building case. Power [ Gas,c Gas,nc Oil,c Oil,nc Wood Coal HP, brine HP, air 5 1,816 1,635 1,837 1,653 3,787 3,787 3,850 2, ,582 1,424 1,599 1,439 3,298 3,298 3,478 2,299 EL DH ,537 1,537 2,415 1, , , , , Table 18: Heating system investments, new buildings, NORTHERN 13 The following table shows the solar thermal system investments for domestic hot water for the new building case. Size [m²] Solar thermal system (DHW 14 ) [ /m²] Table 19: Solar thermal systems, new buildings, NORTHERN The following abbreviations are used for the heating system mix: c=condensing, nc=non-condensing, el=electricity, HP=heat pump, DH=district heat. The following abbreviation is used for domestic hot water = dhw 39

40 4. Ventilation Systems The following table shows the ventilation system investments for the new building case. Volume flow [m³/h] Exhaust air system (without HR) (m³/h)] Ventilation system (with HR) (m³/h)] Table 20: Ventilation system investments, new buildings, NORTHERN 5. Cooling Systems The following table shows the cooling system investments for the new building case. Power [ Cooling , ,256 Table 21: Cooling system investment, new buildings, NORTHERN Retrofit 1. Insulation The following table shows the insulation investments for the retrofit case. Parameter Unit Wall Roof Upper Ceiling Lower Ceiling Floor slab Ground wall Fix costs /m² Variable costs Table 22: /(cm*m²) Insulation investment, retrofit, NORTHERN 40

41 2. Windows The following table shows the window investments for the retrofit case. Parameter Efficiency 1 (U = 1.60; g = 0.63) Efficiency 2 (U = 1.30; g = 0.50) Efficiency 3 (U = 0.90; g = 0.50) Table 23: Window costs [ /m²] Window investments, retrofit, NORTHERN 3. Heating and Domestic Hot Water Systems The following table shows the heating system investments for the retrofit case. HP, HP, Power Gas,c Gas,nc Oil,c Oil,nc Wood Coal brine air EL DH [ 5 1,816 1,635 1,837 1,653 3,787 3,787 3,850 2, ,275 1,147 1,275 1,147 3,216 3,216 3,478 2, ,686 1,686 2,415 1, , , , , Table 24: Heating system investments, retrofit, NORTHERN 41

42 The following table shows the solar thermal system investments for domestic hot water for the retrofit case. Size [m²] Solar thermal system (DHW) [ /m²] Table 25: Solar thermal systems, retrofit, NORTHERN 4. Ventilation Systems The following table shows the ventilation system investments for the retrofit case. Volume flow [m³/h] Exhaust air system (without HR) (m³/h)] Table 26: Ventilation system (with HR) (m³/h)] Ventilation system investments, retrofit, NORTHERN 42

43 5. Cooling Systems The following table shows the cooling system investments for the retrofit case. Power [ Cooling , ,256 Table 27: Cooling system investment, retrofit, NORTHERN Reference Zone: WESTERN New buildings 1. Insulation The following table shows the insulation investments for the new building case. Parameter Unit Wall Roof Upper Ceiling Lower Ceiling Floor slab Ground wall Fix costs /m² Variable costs Table 28: /(cm*m²) Insulation investments, new buildings, WESTERN 2. Windows The following table shows the window investments for the new building case. Parameter Efficiency 1 (U = 1.60; g = 0.63) Efficiency 2 (U = 1.30; g = 0.50) Efficiency 3 (U = 0.90; g = 0.50) Table 29: Window costs [ /m²] Window investments, new buildings, WESTERN 43

44 3. Heating and Domestic Hot Water Systems The following table shows the heating system investments for the new building case. Power [ Gas,c Gas,nc Oil,c Oil,nc Wood Coal HP, brine HP, air 5 1,495 1,345 1,511 1,360 3,117 3,117 3,168 2, ,302 1,172 1,316 1,184 2,714 2,714 2,863 1,892 EL DH ,265 1,265 1,988 1, , , , , Table 30: Heating system investments, new buildings, WESTERN The following table shows the solar thermal system investments for domestic hot water for the new building case. Size [m²] Solar thermal system (DHW) [ /m²] Table 31: Solar thermal systems, new buildings, WESTERN 44

45 4. Ventilation Systems The following table shows the ventilation system investments for the new building case. Volume flow [m³/h] Exhaust air system (without HR) (m³/h)] Ventilation system (with HR) (m³/h)] Table 32: Ventilation system investments, new buildings, WESTERN 5. Cooling Systems The following table shows the cooling system investments for the new building case. Power [ Cooling ,853 Table 33: Cooling system investment, new buildings, WESTERN Retrofit 1. Insulation The following table shows the insulation investments for the retrofit case. Parameter Unit Wall Roof Upper Ceiling Lower Ceiling Floor slab Ground wall Fix costs /m² Variable costs Table 34: /(cm*m²) Insulation investments, retrofit, WESTERN 45

46 2. Windows The following table shows the window investments for the retrofit case. Parameter Efficiency 1 (U = 1.60; g = 0.63) Efficiency 2 (U = 1.30; g = 0.50) Efficiency 3 (U = 0.90; g = 0.50) Table 35: Window costs [ /m²] Window investments, retrofit, WESTERN 3. Heating and Domestic Hot Water Systems The following table shows the heating system investments for the retrofit case. HP, HP, Power Gas,c Gas,nc Oil,c Oil,nc Wood Coal brine air EL DH [ 5 1,495 1,345 1,511 1,360 3,117 3,117 3,168 2, , , ,647 2,647 2,863 2, ,387 1,387 1,988 1, , , , , Table 36: Heating system investments, retrofit, WESTERN 46

47 The following table shows the solar thermal system investments for domestic hot water for the retrofit case. Size [m²] Solar thermal system (DHW) [ /m²] Table 37: Solar thermal systems, retrofit, WESTERN 4. Ventilation Systems The following table shows the ventilation system investments for the retrofit case. Volume flow [m³/h] Exhaust air system (without HR) (m³/h)] Table 38: Ventilation system (with HR) (m³/h)] Ventilation system investments, retrofit, WESTERN 47

48 5. Cooling Systems The following table shows the cooling system investments for the retrofit case. Power [ Cooling ,853 Table 39: Cooling system investment, retrofit, WESTERN Reference Zone: NORTH-EASTERN New buildings 1. Insulation The following table shows the insulation investments for the new building case. Parameter Unit Wall Roof Upper Ceiling Lower Ceiling Floor slab Ground wall Fix costs /m² Variable costs Table 40: /(cm*m²) Insulation investments, new buildings, NORTH-EASTERN 2. Windows The following table shows the window investments for the new building case. Parameter Efficiency 1 (U = 1.60; g = 0.63) Efficiency 2 (U = 1.30; g = 0.50) Efficiency 3 (U = 0.90; g = 0.50) Table 41: Window costs [ /m²] Window investments, new buildings, NORTH-EASTERN 48

49 3. Heating and Domestic Hot Water Systems The following table shows the heating system investments for the new building case. Power [ Gas,c Gas,nc Oil,c Oil,nc Wood Coal HP, brine HP, air ,886 1,886 1,917 1, ,642 1,642 1,732 1,145 EL DH , Table 42: Heating system investments, new buildings, NORTH-EASTERN The following table shows the solar thermal system investments for domestic hot water for the new building case. Size [m²] Solar thermal system (DHW) [ /m²] Table 43: Solar thermal systems, new buildings, NORTH-EASTERN 49

50 4. Ventilation Systems The following table shows the ventilation system investments for the new building case. Volume flow [m³/h] Exhaust air system (without HR) (m³/h)] Ventilation system (with HR) (m³/h)] Table 44: Ventilation system investments, new buildings, NORTH-EASTERN 5. Cooling Systems The following table shows the cooling system investments for the new building case. Power [ Cooling Table 45: Cooling system investment, new buildings, NORTH-EASTERN Retrofit 1. Insulation The following table shows the insulation investments for the retrofit case. Parameter Unit Wall Roof Upper Ceiling Lower Ceiling Floor slab Ground wall Fix costs /m² Variable costs Table 46: /(cm*m²) Insulation investments, retrofit, NORTH-EASTERN 50

51 2. Windows The following table shows the window investments for the retrofit case. Parameter Efficiency 1 (U = 1.60; g = 0.63) Efficiency 2 (U = 1.30; g = 0,50) Efficiency 3 (U = 0,90; g = 0.50) Table 47: Window costs [ /m²] Window investments, retrofit, NORTH-EASTERN 3. Heating and Domestic Hot Water Systems The following table shows the heating system investments for the retrofit case. HP, HP, Power Gas,c Gas,nc Oil,c Oil,nc Wood Coal brine air EL DH [ ,886 1,886 1,917 1, ,601 1,601 1,732 1, , Table 48: Heating system investments, retrofit, NORTH-EASTERN 51

52 The following table shows the solar thermal system investments for domestic hot water for the retrofit case. Size [m²] Solar thermal system (DHW) [ /m²] Table 49: Solar thermal systems, retrofit, NORTH-EASTERN 4. Ventilation Systems The following table shows the ventilation system investments for the retrofit case. Volume flow [m³/h] Exhaust air system (without HR) (m³/h)] Table 50: Ventilation system (with HR) (m³/h)] Ventilation system investments, retrofit, NORTH-EASTERN 52

53 5. Cooling Systems The following table shows the cooling system investments for the retrofit case. Power [ Cooling ,121 Table 51: Cooling system investment, retrofit, NORTH-EASTERN Reference Zone: SOUTH-EASTERN New buildings 1. Insulation The following table shows the insulation investments for the new building case. Parameter Unit Wall Roof Upper Ceiling Lower Ceiling Floor slab Ground wall Fix costs /m² Variable costs Table 52: /(cm*m²) Insulation investments, new buildings, SOUTH-EASTERN 2. Windows The following table shows the window investments for the new building case. Parameter Efficiency 1 (U = 1.60; g = 0.63) Efficiency 2 (U = 1.30; g = 0.50) Efficiency 3 (U = 0.90; g = 0.50) Table 53: Window costs [ /m²] Window investments, new buildings, SOUTH-EASTERN 53

54 3. Heating and Domestic Hot Water Systems The following table shows the heating system investments for the new building case. Power [ Gas,c Gas,nc Oil,c Oil,nc Wood Coal HP, brine HP, air ,325 1,325 1, ,154 1,154 1, EL DH Table 54: Heating system investments, new buildings, SOUTH-EASTERN The following table shows the solar thermal system investments for domestic hot water for the new building case. Size [m²] Solar thermal system (DHW) [ /m²] Table 55: Solar thermal systems, new buildings, SOUTH-EASTERN 54

55 4. Ventilation Systems The following table shows the ventilation system investments for the new building case. Volume flow [m³/h] Exhaust air system (without HR) (m³/h)] Ventilation system (with HR) (m³/h)] Table 56: Ventilation system investments, new buildings, SOUTH-EASTERN 5. Cooling Systems The following table shows the cooling system investments for the new building case. Power [ Cooling Table 57: Cooling system investment, new buildings, SOUTH-EASTERN Retrofit 1. Insulation The following table shows the insulation investments for the retrofit case. Parameter Unit Wall Roof Upper Ceiling Lower Ceiling Floor slab Ground wall Fix costs /m² Variable costs Table 58: /(cm*m²) Insulation investments, retrofit, SOUTH-EASTERN 55

56 2. Windows The following table shows the window investments for the retrofit case. Parameter Efficiency 1 (U = 1.60; g = 0.63) Efficiency 2 (U = 1.30; g = 0.50) Efficiency 3 (U = 0.90; g = 0.50) Table 59: Window costs [ /m²] Window investments, retrofit, SOUTH-EASTERN 3. Heating and Domestic Hot Water Systems The following table shows the heating system investments for the retrofit case. HP, HP, Power Gas,c Gas,nc Oil,c Oil,nc Wood Coal brine air EL DH [ ,325 1,325 1, ,125 1,125 1, Table 60: Heating system investments, retrofit, SOUTH-EASTERN 56

57 The following table shows the solar thermal system investments for domestic hot water for the retrofit case. Size [m²] Solar thermal system (DHW) [ /m²] Table 61: Solar thermal systems, retrofit, SOUTH-EASTERN 4. Ventilation Systems The following table shows the ventilation system investments for the retrofit case. Volume flow [m³/h] Exhaust air system (without HR) (m³/h)] Table 62: Ventilation system (with HR) (m³/h)] Ventilation system investments, retrofit, SOUTH-EASTERN 57

58 5. Cooling Systems The following table shows the cooling system investments for the retrofit case. Power [ Cooling Table 63: Cooling system investment, retrofit, SOUTH-EASTERN Reference Zone: SOUTHERN New buildings 1. Insulation The following table shows the insulation investments for the new building case. Parameter Unit Wall Roof Upper Ceiling Lower Ceiling Floor slab Ground wall Fix costs /m² Variable costs Table 64: /(cm*m²) Insulation investments, new buildings, SOUTHERN 2. Windows The following table shows the window investments for the new building case. Parameter Efficiency 1 (U = 1.60; g = 0.63) Efficiency 2 (U = 1.30; g = 0.50) Efficiency 3 (U = 0.90; g = 0.50) Table 65: Window costs [ /m²] Window investments, new buildings, SOUTHERN 58

59 3. Heating and Domestic Hot Water Systems The following table shows the heating system investments for the new building case. Power [ Gas,c Gas,nc Oil,c Oil,nc Wood Coal HP, brine HP, air , ,073 2,073 2,107 1, ,805 1,805 1,904 1,259 EL DH , Table 66: Heating system investments, new buildings, SOUTHERN The following table shows the solar thermal system investments for domestic hot water for the new building case. Size [m²] Solar thermal system (DHW) [ /m²] Table 67: Solar thermal systems, new buildings, SOUTHERN 59

60 4. Ventilation Systems The following table shows the ventilation system investments for the new building case. Volume flow [m³/h] Exhaust air system (without HR) (m³/h)] Ventilation system (with HR) (m³/h)] Table 68: Ventilation system investments, new buildings, SOUTHERN 5. Cooling Systems The following table shows the cooling system investments for the new building case. Power [ Cooling Table 69: Cooling system investment, new buildings, SOUTHERN Retrofit 1. Insulation The following table shows the insulation investments for the retrofit case. Parameter Unit Wall Roof Upper Ceiling Lower Ceiling Floor slab Ground wall Fix costs /m² Variable costs Table 70: /(cm*m²) Insulation investments, retrofit, SOUTHERN 60

61 2. Windows The following table shows the window investments for the retrofit case. Parameter Efficiency 1 (U = 1.60; g = 0.63) Efficiency 2 (U = 1.30; g = 0.50) Efficiency 3 (U = 0.90; g = 0.50) Table 71: Window costs [ /m²] Window investments, retrofit, SOUTHERN 3. Heating and Domestic Hot Water Systems The following table shows the heating system investments for the retrofit case. HP, HP, Power Gas,c Gas,nc Oil,c Oil,nc Wood Coal brine air EL DH [ , ,073 2,073 2,107 1, ,760 1,760 1,904 1, , , Table 72: Heating system investments, retrofit, SOUTHERN 61

62 The following table shows the solar thermal system investments for domestic hot water for the retrofit case. Size [m²] Solar thermal system (DHW) [ /m²] Table 73: Solar thermal systems, retrofit, SOUTHERN 4. Ventilation Systems The following table shows the ventilation system investments for the retrofit case. Volume flow [m³/h] Exhaust air system (without HR) (m³/h)] Table 74: Ventilation system (with HR) (m³/h)] Ventilation system investments, retrofit, SOUTHERN 62

63 5. Cooling Systems The following table shows the cooling system investments for the retrofit case. Power Cooling 5 kw kw kw 1,223 Table 75: Cooling system investment, retrofit, SOUTHERN [ /kwh] Energy price The following table gives an overview of the energy prices including VAT for residential and non-residential buildings in the reference zones of the study per energy carrier for Reference Zone Electricity Biomass District heat Gas Oil Coal Northern Western North-Eastern South-Eastern Southern Table 76: Energy prices per energy carrier for 2014 [ ct/kwh] (Source: [Eurostat, 2015b], [Eurostat, 2015c], [Euroheat & Power, 2013], [EnergyComment, 2013], [ECOFYS, 2012]) The following table shows energy price increase rates per energy carrier until The increase rates do not consider inflation rates and are applicable for all reference zones: Region Electricity Biomass District heat EU % 15 /0.91% % 2.59% Table 77: Energy price increase rates [%/a] for electricity, biomass and district heating until 2030 (Source: based on Input from EC for impact assessment [EC, 2013] ) Electricity price increase for residential buildings Electricity price increase for non-residential buildings 63

64 For Gas, Oil and Coal following annual rates has been assumed. Year Gas Oil Coal ,07% -9,06% -8,96% ,01% -30,13% -6,56% ,24% 5,23% 1,49% ,12% 5,49% 1,29% ,23% 5,61% 1,24% ,47% 5,30% 1,22% ,48% 4,80% 1,18% ,36% 2,93% 3,17% ,01% 2,32% 3,73% ,30% 3,80% 3,45% ,94% 2,76% 4,02% ,60% 1,80% 3,98% ,58% 2,50% 3,83% ,46% 2,20% 3,68% ,59% 1,47% 3,68% ,57% 2,27% 3,58% ,25% 1,34% 3,81% Table 78: Annual energy price increase for Gas, Oil and Coal fur EU28 (Source: based on Input from EC for impact assessment 17 ) 17 Endogenous results calculated by the PROMETHEUS model and used as inputs into PRIMES for REF2015 Scenario "EU Energy, Transport and GHG Emissions: Trends to 2050"; International fossil fuel prices (EU import prices), (Excel document: REF2015-Input-Assumptions provided by the Commission) 64

65 3.3.4 Primary Energy Factors The following table shows the primary energy factors for the reference zones per energy carrier for Reference Zone Electricity Biomass District heat Gas Oil Coal Northern Western North-Eastern South-Eastern Southern Table 79: Total primary energy factor per energy carrier for (Source: [Eurostat Complete Energy Balances, IPCC 2006], [ENERDATA, ] 19, 20 ) Until 2030 the average decrease of primary energy factors is 3.08% for electricity and 3.26% for district heat CO 2 -emission Factors The following table shows the CO 2 -emission factors (gco 2 /kwh) for the reference zones per energy carrier for Reference Zone Electricity Biomass District heat Gas Oil Coal Northern Western North-Eastern South-Eastern Southern Table 80: CO 2-emission factors per energy carrier for 2013 Until 2030 the average annual decrease of CO 2 -emission factors is 3.57% for electricity and 4.01% for district heat Specific scenario parameters The policy measures to be assessed and their grouping into the scenarios were provided by the EC Including renewables for electricity and district heat. For district heat and electricity: Own calculations based on Eurostat Complete Energy Balances The PE-factors are total primary energy factors, including renewables. [ECOFYS, 2013] Average annual decrease of CO2 factors according to target corridor for power sector corresponding to A Roadmap for moving to a competitive low carbon economy in

66 In Section the key scenario parameters are defined for the three scenarios, noting that construction and demolition rate are kept identical in all scenarios: Scenario 1: Reference, Scenario 2: Further guidance without amendment to the EPBD, Scenario 3: Comprehensive set of targeted amendments. In Section these key scenario parameters are defined in more specific terms General presentation of the key assumptions Scenario 1: Reference The reference scenario considers that no measure is taken on the EPBD beyond existing ones. It implies continued implementation and related regulatory and non-regulatory instruments, for instance: the requirement for all new buildings to be built as nearly zero energy buildings as from 2021 on and the update cycles of the assessments of MSs on cost optimal building performance requirements, the adoption of a common EU voluntary certification scheme (Article 11(9) of the EPBD) that provide market participants in the non-residential sector with a tool for the reliable comparison of buildings energy use across borders. This approach could be supported by measures to maximize the impact of the EPBD. Sharing of good practices, stimulated by exchange platforms (e.g. Concerted Action), could help in improving compliance. It is assumed that under the no-change option, this work would continue and that a better implementation and enforcement of the current EPBD lead to an increase in the renovation rate (increase by 55% in the time frame ) and of the HVAC system exchange rate (developing from an average lifetime of 28 to an average lifetime of 24 years until 2030). The EPBD is co-delivering in synergy with other energy efficiency legislation (EED, Ecodesign, Energy Labelling) and Financial Support under the European Structural and Investment fund and financial support measures. As a consequence, the reference scenario for modelling policy options must assume a set of boundary conditions for the policy environment. At least the three following approaches were possible: 1. Assuming the application of existing pieces of legislation as they are today, meaning with closing dates where they exist, without renewed effort after 2020, 2. Assuming a continuation of the current level of effort post 2020, 3. Assuming an increased level of effort post 2020 according to the most intensive policy options explored in preparation of the energy efficiency package. Although the first approach corresponds to the current legal situation, it would bias the results upwards by considering that, after 2020, the EPBD stands alone and supports all required efforts. The third approach would be going too far in the opposite direction. 66

67 As a consequence, the second approach was chosen as a conservative assumption, presenting the role of the EPBD in the context of the legislative and financial framework of the package as a whole. The reference scenario that underpins the calculation of impacts considers a continuation of the current level of efforts in areas that are outside of the scope of the EPBD but acting in synergy with it, as follows: The proposed revision of the Energy labelling directive, the implementation of the measures already identified under past Ecodesign working plans and any new product groups identified in the Ecodesign working plan , The continuation of the energy efficiency obligation scheme as it is, post 2020 (EED, Art.7), The continuation of current level of support to improve the energy performance of buildings from European Structural and Investment Funds, post 2020, The continuation of the efforts currently funded from the Horizon 2020 research and innovation budget post 2020 and in particular the continuation of the project development assistance currently funded from that budget post We set the following parameter for the Baseline scenario: Thermal qualities: o New buildings: : Cost optimal U-values according to MS reports; : Introduction of NZEBs (approx % improvement); : 7.5% improvement due to new cost optimality values; o Existing buildings: : Cost optimal U-values from MS reports; : 5 % improvement 23 compared to ; : 5 % improvement 23 compared to ; Retrofit rates (equivalent full thermal renovation rate 24 ): Residential ( ): %; Non-residential ( ): %; Heating systems 26 : o Exchange rates ( ): %. Scenario 2: Further guidance without amendment to the EPBD This option considers the set of proposals that enhance the implementation of the existing regulatory framework without amending the Directive. It builds on the work being done at EU, national and regional levels to actively implement the Directive. Compared with the first scenario, it goes one step further in proposing Following the update of cost optimality calculations, average improvement The full thermal renovation rate reflects the amount of buildings that undergo a renovation and upgrade of the total building envelope (roof, external walls, windows and ground floor) developed as an equivalent rate of renovations that include all or only parts of these different components. The full thermal renovation rate is therefore an indicator that describes the number and scope of renovations of the building envelope, while not describing the ambition level (e.g. thickness of insulation) of the single measures. Own calculations based on the building stock model Invert/EE-Lab, TU Vienna Heating distribution system is not changed. Based on an average lifetime of 28 years. 67

68 soft law and guidance that could improve the implementation and enforcement of the legislation and the use of voluntary measures which have not yet been explored by Member States, for instance: Guidance for clarifying the calculation of the energy performance of buildings, for example, to ensure that the potential for the integration of renewable energy sources and the highly efficient systems are considered; Guidance the implementation of the cost-optimal levels of minimum requirements proposes an answer to address implementation problems of the current legislation. We set the following parameter for scenario 2: Thermal qualities: o New buildings: : Cost optimal U-values according to MS reports; : introduction of NZEBs (approx % improvement); : 7.5% improvement due to new cost optimality values; o Existing buildings: : Cost optimal U-values from MS reports; : 5 % improvement 23 compared to ; : 5 % improvement 23 compared to ; Retrofit rates (equivalent full thermal renovation rate 24 ): o Residential ( ): %; o Non-residential ( ): %; Heating systems 26 : o Exchange rates ( ): %. Scenario 3: Comprehensive set of targeted amendments. Scenario 3 considers targeted amendments of the current EPBD, in line with the intervention logic of the current EPBD: Sending clear signal to the market as regards the existing buildings by setting placing the long term renovation strategy within the ambition for the building sector to be decarbonised by 2050, with milestones in 2030, Developing a framework to support the flowing of financial resources into the buildings sector, in particular for building renovation, Improving the effectiveness of EPCs with measures that strengthen, modernise and further integrate the EPCs within a more global framework, Improving the efficiency of the EPBD with measures that lift the provisions related to regular inspection and repeal of the provisions related to mandatory documented feasibility study for efficient systems, Implementing continuous electronic commissioning for technical building system. These effects are combined in the scenario modelling into an increase in the renovation rate (increase by 160% in the time frame ) and of the HVAC system exchange rate (developing from an average lifetime of to an average lifetime of 22 years until 2030) Own assumption, based on market data The BEAM2 model includes all on-site renewables that contribute to heating and/or cooling. PV is not included at this step. 68

69 We set the following parameter for scenario 3: Thermal qualities: o New buildings: : Cost optimal U-values according to MS reports; : Introduction of NZEBs (approx % improvement); : 7.5% improvement due to new cost optimality values; o Existing buildings: : Cost optimal U-values from MS reports; : 5 % improvement 23 compared to ; : 5 % improvement 23 compared to ; Retrofit rates (equivalent full thermal renovation rate 24 ): o Residential ( ): % 25 ; o Non-residential ( ): % 25 ; Heating systems 26 : o Exchange rates ( ): % Detailed definition of scenario parameters Thermal Qualities The following table shows the assumed thermal qualities of the building shell components for new and existing buildings per reference zone for the Scenarios 1-3. Baseline (Scenario 1) Scenarios New buildings nzeb level 7,5% improvement Wall 0,21 0,19 0,18 Window 1,00 0,88 0,81 Floor 0,31 0,27 0,25 Roof 0,15 0,13 0,12 Existing buildings 5% improvement 5% improvement Wall 0,24 0,23 0,22 Window 1,00 0,95 0,90 Floor 0,31 0,29 0,28 Roof 0,15 0,14 0,14 Table 81: Thermal qualities (U-values), NORTHERN (Source: based on assessment of cost optimal calculations in the context of the EPBD report [Ecofys 2015c]) 69

70 Baseline (Scenario 1) Scenarios New buildings nzeb level 7,5% improvement Wall 0,23 0,20 0,19 Window 1,47 1,28 1,18 Floor 0,28 0,25 0,23 Roof 0,19 0,17 0,16 Existing buildings 5% improvement 5% improvement Wall 0,26 0,25 0,23 Window 1,47 1,40 1,32 Floor 0,28 0,27 0,25 Roof 0,19 0,18 0,17 Table 82: Thermal qualities (U-values), WESTERN (Source: based on assessment of cost optimal calculations in the context of the EPBD report [Ecofys 2015c]) Baseline (Scenario 1) Scenarios New buildings nzeb level 7,5% improvement Wall 0,21 0,19 0,18 Window 1,24 1,08 1,00 Floor 0,32 0,28 0,26 Roof 0,16 0,14 0,13 Existing buildings 5% improvement 5% improvement Wall 0,24 0,23 0,22 Window 1,24 1,18 1,12 Floor 0,32 0,30 0,29 Roof 0,16 0,15 0,14 Table 83: Thermal qualities (U-values), EASTERN (Source: based on assessment of cost optimal calculations in the context of the EPBD report [Ecofys 2015c]) 70

71 Baseline (Scenario 1) Scenarios New buildings nzeb level 7,5% improvement Wall 0,25 0,21 0,19 Window 1,14 0,99 0,92 Floor 0,30 0,26 0,24 Roof 0,25 0,22 0,20 Existing buildings 5% improvement 5% improvement Wall 0,27 0,26 0,24 Window 1,14 1,08 1,03 Floor 0,30 0,29 0,27 Roof 0,25 0,24 0,23 Table 84: Thermal qualities (U-values), SOUTH-EASTERN (Source: based on assessment of cost optimal calculations in the context of the EPBD report [Ecofys 2015c]) Baseline (Scenario 1) Scenarios New buildings nzeb level 7,5% improvement Wall 0,68 0,60 0,56 Window 3,71 3,25 3,01 Floor 0,64 0,56 0,52 Roof 0,68 0,60 0,56 Existing buildings 5% improvement 5% improvement Wall 0,76 0,72 0,69 Window 3,71 3,52 3,35 Floor 0,64 0,61 0,58 Roof 0,68 0,65 0,61 Table 85: Thermal qualities (U-values), SOUTHERN (Source: based on assessment of cost optimal calculations in the context of the EPBD report [Ecofys 2015c]) 71

72 New construction, demolition and retrofit rates This chapter shows the different developments for new construction, demolition and retrofit rates 30 from 2015 to Residential The new construction rate prognosis in the GLOBUS model is based on prediction of the gross domestic product and on the population. The new construction rates from are shown in the following figure. Figure 23: New construction rates per reference zone, residential, all scenarios, (Source: [Schimschar, 2015]) The renovation rate includes all buildings with a (partial) renovation. The equivalent renovation rate is the product of the renovation rate and the depth of renovation. The reason for a decline in new construction rate in North-Eastern Europe is a corresponding decline in the population forecast. 72

73 The retrofit rates from are shown in the following figure where the starting point results from a currently assumed equivalent retrofit rate 32. Figure 24: Full thermal renovation equivalent rate of all scenarios for EU28, residential, The demolition rates are assumed to be 0.10 %/year and will be applied to the two age groups containing the oldest buildings (pre 1945, ) 33. Non-residential As for residential buildings the new construction rate prognosis in the GLOBUS model is based on prediction of the gross domestic product and on the population. The new construction rates from are shown in the following figure. Figure 25: New construction rates per reference zone, non-residential, all scenarios, (Source: [Schimschar, 2015]) 32 ECOFYS, 2015a 33 [Ecofys 2012] 73

74 The retrofit rates from are shown in the following figure where the starting point (as for residential buildings) results from analysis performed in Panorama of the non-residential building stock for European Copper institute 34 an in-depth analysis of an equivalent retrofit rate 35. Figure 26: Full thermal renovation equivalent rate of all scenarios for EU28, non-residential, The demolition rates are assumed to be 0.20 %/year and will be applied to the two age groups containing the oldest buildings (pre 1945, ). HVAC systems Space and water heating systems For the heating systems the following developments are assumed for the exchange rates. Figure 27: Heating system exchange rates for EU28, ECOFYS, 2011b 35 ECOFYS, 2015a 74

75 Lighting in non-residential buildings For lighting in non-residential buildings following development is assumed for all scenarios. Year Final energy [TWh] Table 86: Final energy consumption development for lighting in non-residential buildings [TWh] Source: [Ecofys, 2015b] adjusted with assumption regarding anticipated savings from Ecodesign Preparatory Study. 75

76 The replacement of heating systems in existing buildings and heating systems in new buildings is based on the following forecast on system sales (residential and non-residential buildings) until 2030, see following graphs. 100% Heating system installations in new buildings (Western zone, Option 0) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Gas,c Gas,nc Oil,c Oil,nc DH Wood Coal EL-direct HP,ground HP,air Figure 28: Heating system sales prediction for new buildings per year per system, (Source: own assumptions based on information from EHI, [Delta-EE, 2015]) Heating system installations in existing buildings (Western zone, Option 0) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Gas,c Gas,nc Oil,c Oil,nc DH Wood Coal EL-direct HP,ground HP,air Figure 29: Heating system sales prediction for existing buildings per year per system, (Source: own assumptions based on information from EHI, [Delta-EE, 2015]) 76

77 The trend starts with the known distribution (2015) amongst the heating system types. Heat pumps, district heat and wood boiler are assumed to increase in the sales shares until Following the Ecodesign regulation, Oil non-condensing boiler will not be sold from 2016 onwards whereas gas non-condensing boiler in the retrofit case may still be installed if they are connected to a shared open-flue system. Therefore a first significant change in the development can be expected in 2016 followed by a second change from 2021 onwards. This shift results from the nzeb introduction increasing the share of renewable energy systems in new buildings. The change of domestic hot water systems is considered by increase (and decrease respectively) of floor area per reference building. Additionally, the impact of the Ecodesign directive is applied to the scenario results (Taps and showers: 70 TWh in 2025 (anticipated savings from Ecodesign Preparatory Study). Cooling systems For cooling systems the same exchange rates as described for heating systems will be applied. The exchange rates will be applied to the stock of cooling systems, which will be derived from available top down data on electricity consumption for cooling, in combination with information from Ecodesign Preparatory Study ENTR Lot 6. An increase of cooling systems in new and existing buildings will be derived from available sales data The infiltration of new technologies is generally addressed by better SER-values for new cooling systems. 77

78 Ventilation systems Ventilation systems with heat recovery are assumed to be distributed in case of major renovation of a building and in new buildings according to the following table. Baseline (Scenario 1) Retrofit New buildings New buildings Scenario 2 Retrofit New buildings New buildings Scenario 3 Retrofit New buildings New buildings Table 87: Ventilation systems with heat recovery Residential Non-residential 3 % 45 % 25 % 55 % 45 % 70 % 4 % 50 % 28 % 60 % 50 % 75 % 6 % 60 % 34 % 70 % 60 % 85 % Scenario input ventilation systems with heat recovery, residential/non-residential, all zones Solar thermal systems Solar thermal systems in residential buildings are assumed to be applied in case of an exchange of the heating system and in new buildings as shown in the following table. Solar thermal systems Residential/ Non-Residential Residential/ Non-Residential Residential/ Non-Residential Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Retrofit 3.2 % 3.2 % 3.8% New buildings % 37 15% 15% Table 88: Scenario input solar thermal systems, residential, all zones 37 For District heat and heat pumps no solar thermal systems are assumed. Shares are valid for all other DHW systems. 78

79 4. Overview and key conclusions The following graphs show a comparison of the assessed scenarios in terms of final energy use, CO 2 -emissions and primary energy use as well as investments (capital expenditures) and energy costs. The results are given for energy use items within the EPBD scope: space heating, domestic hot water and space cooling as well as the auxiliary energy for ventilation, heat recovery for heating and cooling systems (and lighting for nonresidential buildings. As shown on Figure 30, starting from 3,980 TWh/a in 2013, the final energy use decreases in the assessed scenarios by 2030 by 12, 12 and 18% respectively compared to 2013 to 3,520, and 3,270 TWh/a respectively (Scenario 1, 2 and 3). Figure 30: Comparison of the different scenarios, final energy, total for EU 28 [TW/a] 79

80 As for primary energy, Figure 31 indicate that, starting from 4,760 TWh/a in 2013, the primary energy use decreases in the assessed scenarios by 2030 by 26% in scenarios 1 and 2 and by 30% in scenario 3, i.e. to 3,530, 3,510 and 3,310 TWh/a respectively (Scenario 1 to 3). Figure 31: Comparison of the different scenarios, primary energy, total EU28 [TW/a] As regards GHG emissions, starting from 835 Mt/a in 2013, compared to 2013, the emission level decreases in the assessed scenarios by 2030 by 23, 24 and 28% respectively (Scenario 1 to 3). In absolute levels, the 2030 level of emission reaches 639, 636 and 597 Mt/a respectively (Scenario 1 to 3). Figure 32: Comparison of the different scenarios, CO 2-emissions, total for EU28 [Mt/a] 80

81 In relation to the CO 2 -emission target corridor as formulated in the European Roadmap for moving to a competitive low carbon economy in , the scenarios 1 and 2 miss to enter the target corridor and scenario 3 is almost achieving the 2030 target (2% difference). Figure 33: CO 2-emissions, total for Scenario 1 to 3 compared to building sector specific targets Based on the European Roadmap for moving to a competitive low carbon economy in The target corridor as described is developed from the respective targets in the roadmap for the residential and service sector and the power sector. 81

82 The investment costs / capital expenditures in the building envelope and HVAC systems increase over time, influenced by increasing renovation/system exchange rate and ambition level. Figure 34: Comparison of the different scenarios, total investments for EU28 [bn /a] While final energy use in the different scenarios is dropping, the envisaged raise in energy costs per kwh (after a drop between 2013 and 2015), lead to an increase in energy costs, with scenario 3 reaching a stabilisation after Figure 35: Comparison of the different scenarios, total energy expenditures for EU28 [bn /a] 82

83 From the results for the assessed scenarios, the following conclusions can be drawn: All scenarios lead to an increasing reduction in final and primary energy use and related CO 2 -emissions. Scenario 1 and 2 are missing to enter the CO 2 -emission target corridor as formulated in the European Roadmap for moving to a competitive low carbon economy in Scenario 3 is almost achieving the 2030 check-point (2-3% difference). Consequently, additional measures not assessed with BEAM² would be necessary to proceed towards 2050 targets. The potential as regards speed of renovation is not fully exploited under the assessed policy options (renovation rate of approx. 1.7% achieved in Scenario 3). Derived from renovation cycles of years for building envelopes, a renovation rate of 2.5% could be technically achieved while still cost effectively coupling energy performance improvements to anyway ongoing maintenance measures. This will require specifically a stronger focus on compliance (see also study on compliance 39 ) and a focus on creating additional trigger moments (e.g. lower the threshold on major renovation, requiring renovation in a specific time frame after sale, etc.) With a view to achieving the 2050 target, avoidance of lock-in effects will be very important the latest from 2021 on (renovation cycles of building envelopes approx years require the ambition level for the energy performance of building envelopes the latest from 2021 on to be 2050 compatible ) and 2031 on (replacement cycles of HVAC equipment approx. 20 years require carbon emissions from HVAC equipment from 2031 on to be 2050 compatible ) The assessed options show in 2030 still a significant share of fossil fuels. With a view to achieving CO 2 -emission targets for 2050 the latest as from 2031 on (see previous comment) almost exclusive implementation of renewable/low(zero) carbon energy systems is required, not only in new buildings but also during renovation of existing buildings. 39 ICF International 2015: EPBD Compliance study 83

84 Mio. m² Annex 1: Detailed results Scenario 1: Reference The following graphs show the results of the model for the reference Scenario 1. Figure 36 shows the floor area development for the EU28 per reference building type. It becomes obvious, that the floor area in residential and non-residential buildings is continuously growing over time Floor area per building type SFH SMFH LMFH OFB TRB EDB TOB HEB ONB Figure 36: Scenario 1, Floor area per building type [Mio.m²] 84

85 TWh/a The final energy consumption for heating is shown in Figure 37. Beside the fact that the demand is decreasing over time, heating systems such as Gas and Oil non-condensing (nc) boilers become less and others such as condensing boilers and heat pumps are growing Final energy per heating systems Gas,c Gas,c,VS(+HR) Gas,nc Oil,c Oil,c,VS(+HR) Oil,nc DH DH,VS(+HR) Wood Wood,VS(+HR) Coal EL-direct EL-direct,VS(+HR) HP,ground HP,ground,VS(+HR) HP,air HP,air,VS(+HR) Figure 37: Scenario 1, Final energy per heating system [TWh/a] 85

86 TWh/a The renewable energy shares are shown in Figure 38. The amount of biomass is decreasing over time, while heat pumps 40 and PV power generations are growing. The PV power generation is not directly considered in the energy emission balance, but it is indirectly included by the CO 2 -emission factor for electricity Renewable energy Biomass HP PV power generation ST for hot water Figure 38: Scenario 1, on-site renewable energy sources (based on useful energy) [TWh/a] 40 For heat pumps the renewable heat share is calculated according the RES-directive (renewable heat share = COP - 1) 41 PV systems (rooftop and ground-mounted systems) are taken into account for the calculation of the CO2-emission factor. 86

87 Mt/a TWh/a The primary energy consumption is decreasing more than the final energy over time, which is caused by a decreasing primary energy factor the electricity and district heat, see Figure Primary energy per application Heating Hot Water Cooling Auxiliary Lighting (non-res) Figure 39: Scenario 1, Primary energy per application of the EPBD [TWh/a] The resulting CO 2 -emissions per application are shown in Figure CO2 per application Heating Hot Water Cooling Auxiliary Lighting (non-res) 87

88 Billion EUR/a Figure 40: Scenario 1, CO 2-emissions per application of the EPBD [Mt/a] Investment costs are shown separately for building envelope measures and HVAC-systems, see Figure 41. They are increasing duo to increasing renovation and replacement rates over time. 160 Investment costs Building envelope HVAC-Systems Figure 41: Scenario 1, Investments / capital expenditures [bn /a] 88

89 Billion EUR/a The total energy expenditure is shown in Figure 42. The energy price development from 2013 until 2015, with the drop in energy prices, is based on historical data while from 2015 onwards energy price forecasts are used. 400 Energy Costs Heating Hot Water Cooling Auxiliary Lighting (non-res) Figure 42: Scenario 1, Energy expenditures [bn /a] 89

90 TWh/a Mio. m² Scenario Floor area per building type SFH SMFH LMFH OFB TRB EDB TOB HEB ONB Figure 43: Scenario 2, Floor area per building type [Mio.m²] 3500 Final energy per heating systems Gas,c Gas,c,VS(+HR) Gas,nc Oil,c Oil,c,VS(+HR) Oil,nc DH DH,VS(+HR) Wood Wood,VS(+HR) Coal EL-direct EL-direct,VS(+HR) HP,ground HP,ground,VS(+HR) HP,air HP,air,VS(+HR) Figure 44: Scenario 2, Final energy per heating system [TWh/a] 90

91 TWh/a TWh/a 500 Renewable energy Biomass HP PV power generation ST for hot water Figure 45: Scenario 2, on-site renewable energy sources (based on useful energy) [TWh/a] 5000 Primary energy per application Heating Hot Water Cooling Auxiliary Lighting (non-res) Figure 46: Scenario 2, Primary energy per application of the EPBD [TWh/a] 91

92 Billion EUR/a Mt/a 900 CO2 per application Heating Hot Water Cooling Auxiliary Lighting (non-res) Figure 47: Scenario 2, CO 2-emissions per application of the EPBD[Mt/a] 160 Investment costs Building envelope HVAC-Systems Figure 48: Scenario 2, Investments / capital expenditures [bn /a] 92

93 Billion EUR/a 400 Energy Costs Heating Hot Water Cooling Auxiliary Lighting (non-res) Figure 49: Scenario 2, Energy expenditures [bn /a] 93

94 TWh/a Mio. m² Scenario Floor area per building type SFH SMFH LMFH OFB TRB EDB TOB HEB ONB Figure 50: Scenario 3, Floor area per building type [Mio.m²] 3500 Final energy per heating systems Gas,c Gas,c,VS(+HR) Gas,nc Oil,c Oil,c,VS(+HR) Oil,nc DH DH,VS(+HR) Wood Wood,VS(+HR) Coal EL-direct EL-direct,VS(+HR) HP,ground HP,ground,VS(+HR) HP,air HP,air,VS(+HR) Figure 51: Scenario 3, Final energy per heating system [TWh/a] 94

95 TWh/a TWh/a 500 Renewable energy Biomass HP PV power generation ST for hot water Figure 52: Scenario 3, on-site renewable energy sources (based on useful energy) [TWh/a] 5000 Primary energy per application Heating Hot Water Cooling Auxiliary Lighting (non-res) Figure 53: Scenario 3, Primary energy per application of the EPBD [TWh/a] 95

96 Billion EUR/a Mt/a 900 CO2 per application Heating Hot Water Cooling Auxiliary Lighting (non-res) Figure 54: Scenario 3, CO 2-emissions per application of the EPBD [Mt/a] 200 Investment costs Building envelope HVAC-Systems Figure 55: Scenario 3, Investments / capital expenditures [bn /a] 96

97 Billion EUR/a 400 Energy Costs Heating Hot Water Cooling Auxiliary Lighting (non-res) Figure 56: Scenario 3, Energy expenditures [bn /a] 97

98 Annex 2: References Baukosteninformationszentrum Deutscher Architektenkammern (BKI) (2011): Kostenplaner 14 und BKI Baukostendantebank 2011/ Software zur sicheren Baukostenermittlung: BKI GmbH Stuttgart. BPIE (Ed.) (2015): Data hub for the energy performance of buildings. Buildings Performance Institute Europe (BPIE). Delta-EE (Ed.) (2015): Big opportunities for new technologies in the EU household heating market. S. Harkin, A. Bradley. Delta Energy & Environment. EC (Ed.) (2013): EU Energy, Transport and GHG Emissions Trends up to Reference Scenario Prepared for the Directorate-General for Energy, the Directorate-General for Climate Action and the Directorate-General for Mobility and Transport. P. Capros, A. De Vita, D. Papadopoulos, P. Siskos, E. Apostolaki, M. Zampara et al. European Commission (EC); E3Mlab; National Technical University of Athens (ICCS-NTUA); International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA); EuroCARE. Available online at accessed 11/23/2015. ECOFYS (Ed.) (2011a): Cost optimal building performance requirements. Calculation methodology for reporting on national energy performance requirements on the basis of cost optimality within the framework of the EPBD. Report by order of the European Council for an Energy Efficient Economy (ECEEE). T. Boermans, K. Bettgenhäuser, A. Hermelink, S. Schimschar. Cologne. ECOFYS (Ed.) (2011b): Panorama of the European non-residential construction sector. Final report. By order of the European Copper Institute (ECI). S. Schimschar, J. Grözinger, H. Korte, T. Boermans, V. Lilova, R. Bhar. ECOFYS (Ed.) (2012): Renovation tracks for Europe up to Building renovation in Europe - what are the choices? Report by order of the European insulation Manufacturers Association (EURIMA). T. Boermans, K. Bettgenhäuser, M. Offermann, S. Schimschar. Cologne. ECOFYS (Ed.) (2013): Heat Pump Implementation Scenarios until An analysis of the technology's potential in the building sector of Austria, Belgium, Germany, Spain, France, Italy, Sweden and the United Kingdom. By order of the EHPA. K. Bettgenhäuser, M. Offermann, T. Boermans, M. Bosquet, J. Grözinger, B. von Manteuffel, N. Surmeli. ECOFYS; European Heat Pump Association (EHPA). Berlin, Cologne (BUIDE12080). ECOFYS (Ed.) (2015a): Ex-post Evaluation of the Application of the EPBD. WP 1. By order of the European Commission and DG. M. Schäfer, S. Förster, K. Bettgenhäuser, T. Boermans, S. Schimschar, K. Dinges, J. Grözinger. ECOFYS. Berlin, Cologne. ECOFYS (Ed.) (2015b): Savings and benefits of global regulations for energy efficient products: A cost of non-world study. E. Molenbroek, M. Smith, N. Surmeli, S. Schimschar, P. Waide, J. Tait, C. McAllister. ECOFYS; Waide Strategic Efficiency; Tait Consulting; Sea Green Tree. ECOFYS; IEEJ (Eds.) (2015): Development of sectoral indicators for determining potential decarbonization opportunity. A joint study by IEEJ and Ecofys - Final Report. H. Markus, U. Weddige, S. Schimschar, N. Höhne, T. Boermans, G. P. Yean et al. ECOFYS; Institute of Energy Economics Japan (IEEJ). Cologne. ENERDATA (Ed.) ( ): ENTRANZE DataTool. Policies to Enforce the Transition to Nearly Zero Energy buildings in the EU

99 EnergyComment (Ed.) (2013): Vergleich der Heizölpreise in Europa. Available online at accessed 9/23/2015. Euroconstruct (2005): 60th Euroconstruct conference. Barcelona Summary Report. Barcelona. Euroheat & Power (Ed.) (2013): Country by Country. Statistics Overview Survey. Available online at accessed 9/23/2015. Eurostat (Ed.) (2015a): Database Eurostat. Available online at accessed 9/23/2015. Eurostat (Ed.) (2015b): Electricity prices by type of user. Eurostat. Available online at lugin=1, accessed 9/23/2015. Eurostat (Ed.) (2015c): Gas prices by type of user. Eurostat. Available online at lugin=1, accessed 9/23/2015. Eurostat (2015d): Complete energy balances - annual data. nrg_110a. Available online at ICF International (Ed.) (2015): EPDB Compliance Study. Interim Report. Specific Contract No. MOVE/ENER/SRD.1/ lot3/ENER/C3/ /SI Inner City Fund International (ICF International). London. IFEU (Ed.) (2014): 100 % Wärme aus erneuerbaren Energien? Auf dem Weg zum Niedrigstenergiehaus im Gebäudebestand. M. Pehnt, P. Mellwig, L. Claus, S. Blömer, L.-A. Brischke, A. von Oehsen et al. Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung (ifeu); BU Wupptertal; ECOFYS; Deutsche Energie Agentur (DENA); TU Darmstadt; HWR Berlin. inspire (Ed.) (2014): Survey on the energy needs and architectural features of the EU building stock. D2.1a. S. Birchall, I. Wallis, D. Chrucher, S. Pezzutto, R. Fedrizzi, E. Causse. IWU (Ed.) (2015): WebTool of the IEE Projects EPISCOPE and TABULA. Available online at accessed 11/23/2015. Meteotest (2012): Meteonorm. Bern, Switzerland: Meteotest. Oehsen, Amany v.; Pehnt, Martin; Jentsch, Mareike; Gerhardt, Norman (2014): Benötigt man zeitlich aufgelöste Stromprimärenergiefaktoren in der Energieeinsparverordnung? In: et - Energiewirtschaftliche Tagesfragen, vol. 64, no. 11, pp Schimschar, Sven (2015): Update ( ) of the Intervention Logic and Evaluation Questions for the EPBD ex-post evaluation report Schimschar, Sven. 99

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