RusNano Photovoltaics Strategy. Sergey Polikarpov, Managing Director

Transcription

1 RusNano Photovoltaics Strategy Sergey Polikarpov, Managing Director

2 About RUSNANO Established in 2007 Charter capital: ~ 3 bln Mission: to provide the state policy in the field of nanotechnologies Nanotechnology investment projects is the primary instrument of the Corporation RUSNANO supports projects that advance the Russian nanotechnology industry competitive edge, emphasizing areas with high technology potential RUSNANO investment activity is focused at financing the initial commercialization stage when the mobilization of private investment is limited by the high technology and market risks Current situation: Financing of 12 projects is approved More than 1000 applications Short-term plans: Approving of 22 projects is expected in Q1 2009/ Q projects monthly is expected starting Q Long-term goal: Russia should take 3% of the global nanotechnology products market till

3 Why solar energy is important for Russia Electricity supply to off-grid customers (e.g., remote regions) Lower dependence on non-renewable sources of energy Accumulation of scientific potential Stimulation of local R&D activities Stimulation of industrial employment and additional education Development of related technologies (technical & special gases, glass, electrical equipment, chemicals) Build up new industry for export goods 3

4 Development of solar energy in Russia Pro s: Strong R&D base Skilled workforce Many remote regions without on-grid electricity supply High dependence on non-renewable sources of energy Build up new industry for export goods Con s No feed-in tariffs Cheap traditional power supply sources Low insolation Low susceptibility to innovations Current legislation does not support solar energy Undeveloped internal solar market Difficulties with components (glass, technical gases) Solar industry in Russia needs special support 4

5 RUSNANO solar strategy What RUSNANO can do to stimulate solar industry in Russia Invest in different core solar technologies Mono- and polysilicon Thin-films (a-si, -Si, CdTe, CIGS) CPV (concentrators) Support projects with production phase Cluster approach Support current and prospective players Support only competitive players & products Support production facilities in Russia & installation in appropriate regions Invest in projects which can stimulate related industries Enhance competitive advantages Forecast for the total installed PV capacity in Russia 450 Base scenario MW 400 With state support MW Forecast for the solar market size in Russia 160 Base scenario 140 With state support e 2010f 2012f 2014f 2016f 2018f 2020f e 2010f 2012f 2014f 2016f 2018f 2020f Source: Branan 5

6 Core solar technologies Crystalline silicon (c-si mono, c-si multi) Thin film technologies (a-si, -Si, CIGS, CdTe) Concentrator lens (HCPV) Average costs for 1 W of installed capacity Relatively high costs 5,5 $ 2008 s. -> 3,3 $ Lowest costs for today 5,0 $ > 1,9 $ Lowest costs by ,7 $ > 1,0 $ Light perception Technology development Most developed technology High level of reliability Existing distribution chains Perceives direct and dispersed light No tracking system needed New technology Mass production started lately Perceives only direct light Tracking system needed Newest technology Only small-lot production, mass production is not started yet Usability Easy to use, compact size (7-8 2 ) Roofs, solar farms. Relatively large size ( ) As tracking system needed, modules should be placed on horizontal surface. Requires regular maintenance Target customers Small firms and household customers Large firms, construction companies Power generators, large customers Efficiency Monocrystalline silicon from 12% to 19%, multicrystalline silicon from 11% - 14% a-si 6,7% (max 13%), -Si 9,3% (max 17%), CIGS 11,3% (max 19,5%), CdTe 11,1% (max 16,5%) Heterostructure chips 37% (max 41,2%); Heterostructure chip modules from 20% to 25%. Source: Lux Research, Branan 6

7 Business models of solar companies RUSNANO supports projects with production phases Silicon producers (solar quality) Ingots & wafers producers Solar cells producers Solar modules producers Installers & Integrators Operators Av. EBITDA % ~40% ~25% ~15-20% ~12% ~15% ~85% Tendency* Main players Tokoyama Wacker Hemlock Mitsubishi Nitol * Nowadays most value in solar industry is in upsteram segment from silicon to solar modules production. By the time, margin in downstream will increase. BP Solar Deutsche Solar Kyocera PV Crystalox REC Sharp Solarworld BP Solar Deutsche Cell Kyocera Mitsubishi Electric REC Q-Cells Sanyo Sharp SolarWorld Sun Power BP Solar Kyocera Mitsubishi Electric Isofoton Sanyo Sharp SolarWorld Atersa Sun Power SunTech Q-Cells Conergy Centrosolar IBC Solar AG Conergy Phonix Solar Sunline Tenesol Large utility plants 7

8 Cluster approach Solar industry in Russia key projects CPV project Volume 150 MW. Start-up is planned for Telecom STV Current production of solar silicon modules NPP «KVANT» Current production of solar modules for space applications (including triple junction amorphous Si) Production volume 5. Plans of increasing up to 80 MW «Solex» Current modules production Production volume 1,5 MW More than 90% of sales for export Zelenograd Saturn Current production of solar silicon modules St. Petersburg Moscow Ryazan Ioffe Institute Krasnodar Sochi Thin-films project Volume 120 MW. Start-up is planned for Oerlikon technology Novocheboksarsk Krasnoyarsk Zheleznogorsk Usolie Sibirskoe «Khimprom» (Renova Orgsyntes) Project phase (volume 250 t) Start-up is planned for Own production of silane trichloride «Solar wind» Current production of doublesided modules (unique technology) Production volume 5 MW More than 90% of sales for export FGUP GHK (Mining & Chemicals plant) (RusAtom) Current production of polisilicon Planned production volume 200 t High production costs No own production of silane trichloride (purchased from Nitol Solar) «Usolie Siberian Silicon» (Nitol Solar) Current polisilicon production Current volume 300 t; 3800 t in plans Own production ot silane trichloride Possibility to produce monosilane Low cost Solar clusters Modules production Polysilicon production Note: There are several small-scale producers, not shown on this slide. New projects R&D centers 8

9 Project Polycrystalline silicon (approved) Objectives Large-scale polysilicon and monosilane manufacturing complex for the solar and microelectronic industries Products Electronic -grade polysilicon for microelectronic chip s Solar-grade polysilicon for silicon solar modules Monosilane for thin-film solar modules and LCD displays Production volume Polysilicon (electronic and solar grade) tonnes per annum Monosilane with a capacity of up to 200 tonnes per annum Financials RUSNANO investment: 103 mln. + guarantee for 70 mln. Estimated revenue in 2014: 280 mln. 9

10 Project thin films (approved) Objectives Establishing production of solar batteries ««thin-films» using Oerlikon Solar technology. A new company is to be established under the project at Khimprom s industrial park in the city of Novocheboksarsk in the Chuvash Republic. Sales markets Southern Europe (Italy, Spain and Greece) and Germany. The project is scheduled to start in the third quarter of 2009 and reach the planned capacity in the fourth quarter of Co-investor & partner: Renova (Russia). Products Silicon «thin-film» solar modules with efficiency more than 9% Production volume Planned production volume 120MW (appr. one million solar modules per year) Financials Total investments appr. 450 mln. Sales in 2015 appr. 230 mln. Oerlikon solar modules Solar farm based on thin-films technology 10

11 Project CPV for space applications (under consideration) Objectives Processing unit of multicascade heterostructural solar elements (SE) and solar panels based on A3B5 semiconductor materials (gallium arsenide GaAs) Products 3-cascade SE and solar panels in gallium arsenide, comparable in terms of effectiveness (27 29%) and specific power (350 W/m2) with the world s best analogs Production volume More than 304 m2 of solar batteries per year Financials The cost of solar panels on the Russian market in 2013 ~ 0.08 mln/m2 Preliminary investments: ~ 30 mln. Estimated revenue in 2013: 34.3 mln. 11

12 Project CPV for land applications (under consideration) Objectives Production facility and marketing for new generation HCPV modules with Fresnel lenses and tracking systems (3-cascade heterostructures) for land applications Products HCPV modules based on photovoltaic elements with heterostructures. Efficiency (37 45%) nominal capacity (0.2, 0.5, 1, 3, 6 KW) Production volume 60+ MW solar modules capacity per annum Financials Estimated revenue in 2015: more than 100 mln. Sales in Russia in 2015 ~ 28 mln Front surface of photovoltaic element HCPV module proposed for production 12

13 RUSNANO stimulates related industries Tech. Gases SiH 4 / H 2 / N 2 / NF 3 Glass 80 tons per day Other materials - Laminating foil - Junction box - Contacts & wires, etc. Electricity 7,6 MWh/h + other expend. = ~ 80 GWh/year Water / Drains per day +Harmless emissions Raw materials & Components Utilities RUSNANO project will stimulate producing of hightechnology materials & components: Technical Gases Glass Others «Thin-film» Project Production Line 120 MW Products solar modules per day 125 W each «KAI1200» plasma deposition system (nanosized micromorph silicon is depositing on glass) Roof-tops residential Roor-tops commercial «Solar farms» (power plants) 13

14 How Rusnano can help summarize Non-financial support Scheduled work with the project company, investment spending supervision in the interests of all shareholders Shielding from the red tape and corruption, assistance in marketing Administrative Technical and investment expertise, certification, foresight and road maps Managerial Infrastructural RUSNANO Not to maximize profit but to offset the costs Exit strategy Loan Corporate RUSNANO s minority share in all projects Financial support * Long-term and comparatively cheap money * Notes about financing Financing projects at early stage and stage of expansion Financing up to 75% of a project s investment program Ownership participation no more than 50% minus 1 share Credit interest rate Russian Central Bank reinvestment rate as base rate Participation time up to 10 years 14

15 RUSNANO partners in solar industry You? 15

16 The Second Nanotechnology International Forum October 6 8, 2009, Moscow, Central Exhibition Complex Expocentre Numerous business events, seminars and lectures of the world leaders in the nanotechnology industry, round tables, press-conferences and exhibition boots will cover a whole range of nanotechnology issues, with an emphasis on their applied use; The Forum will feature plenary sessions and round tables, panel discussions and presentations covering all areas of nanoindustry and nanotechnology development, as well as the Second International Exhibition which will demonstrate practical application of nanomaterials and nanotechnologies. The Forum will also include the Second International Competition of Scientific Papers in Nanotechnology for Young Researchers and award ceremony of Nanotechnology International Prize. 16

17 Appendices 17

18 Solar modules market crisis impact Demand for solar modules 25,0 20,0 GW Lux Research (February 2009) Lux Research (3 Q 2008) In we expect demand slowdown, due to lack of affordable sources of financing Experts expect demand recovery by GW 15,0 10,0 Industry long term targets remain the same Solar modules demand CAGR is estimated to be 34% 5,0 0, Demand and supply for solar modules 25,0 GW Demand Supply 20,0 We expect supply surplus to remain until 2012, but in 2013 demand will outdo supply. In long term market will see significant shortage of production capacity GW 15,0 10,0 Demand recovery 5,0 100% capacity 0, Source: Lux Research (Feb 2009) 18

19 Solar modules market crisis impact (2) Demand structure Crystalline silicon Thin films (silicon) CIGS/CIS + CdTe Other (CPV, CSP, OPV) 100% 7% 7% 9% 11% 13% 13% 11% 15% 12% 80% 14% 11% 15% 15% 10% 13% 13% 13% 14% 60% Price dynamics 10,0 $/W 8,0 6,8 6,0 6,0 Price (module) CAGR = -11% Price (system) CAGR = -8% 5,4 4,9 4,6 4,3 40% 71% 68% 65% 61% 59% 58% 4,0 2,9 2,7 2,4 2,1 1,9 1,7 20% 2,0 0% , ,0 16,0 12,0 8,0 4,0 0,0 Growth rates by technologies Thin films (silicon) Other (CPV, CSP, OPV) CIGS/CIS + CdTe Crystalline silicon 0,4 0,6 0,6 0,6 0,4 0,8 4,0 3,6 1,1 0,8 1,0 5,4 1,3 1,7 7,1 1,5 2,1 2,5 9,4 2,0 2,5 2,9 11, CAGR ,6 33% 46% 37% 22% Crystalline silicon takes major share of the market Market share of thin films technology will increase, segment CAGR is 33% New technologies will show highest CAGR (CIGS, CdTe, CPV) As supply will exceed demand for a while, module price falls faster than system price Own installation capacity becomes key competitiveness factor for project owners Sources: Lux Research (Feb 2009), Photon Consulting (Mar 2009), Oerlikon, AMAT 19