Information systems in a changing climate: Early warning and drought risk management

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1 Information systems in a changing climate: Early warning and drought risk management Roger S. Pulwarty National Integrated Drought Information System NOAA Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWSNet) World Meteorological Organization/UNEP National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC)

Circulation Greenhouse Gases 30 DAYS 1 SEASON 3 YEARS 10 YEARS 30 YEARS 100 YEARS SHORT-TERM INTERANNUAL

2 !! Climatic drivers of droughta continuum and " an adaptation deficit Heat Waves Floods Storm Track Variations Madden-Julian Oscillation El Niño-Southern Oscillation Decadal Variability Solar Variability Deep Ocean Circulation Greenhouse Gases 30 DAYS 1 SEASON 3 YEARS 10 YEARS 30 YEARS 100 YEARS SHORT-TERM INTERANNUAL DECADE-TO- CENTURY Droughts span a range of time scales Droughts are caused by a number of complex variables-land surface feedbacks 2

Drought remains a hidden risk Droughts on a slowly drying background Drought-related damage in Mozambique, 1990-2009 2011 Global Assessment Report on

3 Drought remains a hidden risk Droughts on a slowly drying background Drought-related damage in Mozambique, Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2011 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction Revealing Risk, Redefining Development Revealing Risk, Redefining Development

4 2012 InterGovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC,2012) sample Special Report on Managing the sample Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation 2011 UNISDR Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction, Revealing Risk, Redefining Development

drought risk like risks associated with other hazards) Mul$%hazard+ mortality+risk+ (Tropical+cyclones,+

5 Drought(is(the(key(hazard(in(Africa and(elsewhere even(if(its( impacts(are(not(recorded(systema;cally. Key$findings$from$GAR09$and$GAR11$ Drought risk is not represented in this multi-hazard risk map (difficult to calculate drought risk like risks associated with other hazards) Mul$%hazard+ mortality+risk+ (Tropical+cyclones,+ floods+and+landslides) Extreme High Medium Moderate Low Unknown+ +

6 The adaptation solution space (SREX, 2012)

8 What is an early warning information system? The development and dissemination of a forecast More critically- The systematic collection and analysis of relevant information about and coming from areas of impending risk that: (a) Informs the development of strategic responses to anticipate crises and crisis evolution; and (b) Communicate options to critical actors for the purposes of decision-making and response

.., s S } can be used to evaluate local background and broader contexts A set of outcomes O a = {o a1, o a2,.

9 Formalized Early Warning Systems A repertoire of actions A = {a 1, a 2,..., a A } that constitute agents practical behavior as shared knowledge between observers A set of world states S = {s 1, s 2,..., s S } can be used to evaluate local background and broader contexts A set of outcomes O a = {o a1, o a2,..., o aa } indicating the state as it is assumed to be after the execution an action A prediction function that expresses an observer s hypotheses that, given at an instant t, n observed evidences for actions in A n, with the context in S, a certain action will be performed by an observed agent at t + t 0, with the respective outcome in O a and a probability in the distribution P

10 Assessing Drought Early Warning Systems NIDIS, WMO, UNISDR International Drought Information Systems ]

" How did we get here? Status and antecedent conditions Is this drought like others? Why has it been dry/drier than normal? What are the impacts and where are they occurring?

11 " How did we get here? Status and antecedent conditions Is this drought like others? Why has it been dry/drier than normal? What are the impacts and where are they occurring? What information is being provided and by whom? How bad might it get and how long will it last? Are information needs being met? How are we planning for next year and for longer-term risks and opportunities? 30 DAYS 1 SEASON 3 YEARS 10 YEARS 30 YEARS 100 YEARS SHORT-TERM INTERANNUAL DECADE-TO- CENTURY 11

12 1- The EUROPEAN DROUGHT OBSERVATORY (EDO): EDO System Setup (European Level) Data Layers LC/LU Soil Hydro-Meteorological Data Stations Fields DEM RBs Forecasts Communication on Drought and Water Scarcity MONITORING & MODELLING Hydrological Processes Products Rainfall Anomalies Soil Moisture Anomalies EDO Portal & Map Server Vegetation Vigour Land Surface Processes Remote Sensing Data FAPAR NDWI Time Series Relevant Authorities: European, Member States, River Basins,

husbandry Countries Agriculture Crop protection Satellite Data Cap-Vert Extension to ECOWAS member countries Gambie Senegal G.

13 The AGRHYMET Operating scheme Partners Data and Information Financial and Technical assistance Meteorology Animal Husbandry Hydrology Agriculture AGRHYMET Crop protection ANALYSIS DIFFUSION TRAINING Hydrology DATA COLLECTION AND STORAGE Meteorology Animal husbandry Countries Agriculture Crop protection Satellite Data Cap-Vert Extension to ECOWAS member countries Gambie Senegal G.-Bissau Sierra-Leone Mauritanie Guinee Liberia Mali Cote-d'Ivoire Burkina Ghana Togo Benin Nigeria Niger Tchad Ground Observation and Surveys Data 13

Risk prevention and management mechanisms At Subregional level: Crisis Prevention Network (CPN): CILSS, CSAO, FEWSNET, USAID, UN system (FAO, WFP, OCHA, UNICEF), and other development partners June:

14 Risk prevention and management mechanisms At Subregional level: Crisis Prevention Network (CPN): CILSS, CSAO, FEWSNET, USAID, UN system (FAO, WFP, OCHA, UNICEF), and other development partners June: Update on risk zones Verification of monitoring system September : Midterm review of rainy season Qualitative prediction of harvests Preliminary identification of zones at risk Planning harvest assessment missions March Food balance updated with final production figures Update on vulnerable zones and populations Intervention points and mitigation efforts recommendations CPN November validation of prelim production results Establishing food balance (supplydemand) Food outlook December Collaboration with donors Summary account of food and agricultural situation Synthesis of key information for better decision making

15 Uses of Drought Information-Municipal water and Food Security Drought(Stage(( Moderate (Storage Index 0.85 to 0.70) Stage II Serious (Storage Index 0.70 to 0.55) Stage III Severe (Storage Index 0.55 to 0.40) Extreme (Storage Index less than 0.40) Water(Budget( Reductions(( More emphasis on basic water use reduction measures and wise water use practices. Use of water monitors to track usage. Target high volume water users. Required budget reductions sufficient to achieve overall 8% reduction in water use. Keep the following vegetation alive: Trees, shrubs, vegetable and flower gardens and lawns. Required budget reductions sufficient to achieve overall 14% reduction in water use. Keep the following vegetation alive: major trees, major shrubs, and limited vegetable gardens. Greatly reduce outdoor water use and non-essential uses. Required budget reductions sufficient to achieve overall 22% reduction in water use. Sustain some mature trees, but recognize there may be a major die-off of lawns, trees, and shrubs. Implement aggressive public education and outreach program. Required budget reductions sufficient to achieve overall 40% reduction in water use. Penalties(for( Violating(Water( Use(Limitations( ((( Fines for violating water conservation and water waste per the Boulder Revised Code. Examples: fines for sidewalk Phase or driveway washing or sprinklers spraying streets). Classification 1A Generally Food Secure 1B Generally Food Secure Borderline Food Insecure Acute Food and 3 Livelihood Crisis Penalize block 5 water use for several months with flow restrictors Implement Stage II plus fines for more limited 2 uses. Examples: lawn watering between 10 am - 6 pm subject to warnings and fines; fines for repeat water waste offenders; fine blocks 4, 5 water use. Stage II and III penalties and flow restrictors; consider moratorium on building permits; consider termination 4 of water service for extreme water waste offenders. 5 Humanitarian Emergency Famine / Humanitarian Catastrophe Key Reference Outcomes Current or imminent outcomes on lives and livelihoods. Based on convergence of direct and indirect evidence rather than absolute thresholds. Not all indicators must be present for classification.. Livelihood Assets generally sustainable utilization (of 6 capitals) Livelihood Assets stressed and unsustainable utilization (of 6 capitals) Livelihood Assets accelerated and critical depletion or loss of access Livelihood Assets near complete & irreversible depletion or loss of access Livelihood Assets effectively complete loss; collapse

16 2010/11: Genesis of A Drought Crisis Time-line between Early Warning & Famine Declaration Food Security Outlooks, Updates & Briefings FEWS NET & Partners La-Nina Declared WMO/GHACOF Warning! Onset! Updates!Peak!Impacts/Massive Response 1>year(from(Early(Warning(to(Emergency(Response?( International Media, UN Declaration of Famine Massive Humanitarian Response

Na7onal$Integrated$Drought$Informa7on$System$

17 Na7onal$Integrated$Drought$Informa7on$System$ $(Federal,$State,$Tribal,$Local$Communi7es,$professional$ socie7es)! Monitoring & Prediction Drought and Flood Impacts Assessments and Scenarios Drought Early Warning Information Systems Communication and Outreach Engaging Preparedness Communities

18 18

19 WGA NOAA MoU April, 2012 Montana( Chesapeak Missouri( e(bay( Oklahoma( 19

20 Landscape changes-thresholds Native American Lands in the Four- Corners Region Mean vegetation biomass Dryness of climate Dry P/PE < P/PE = P/PE = 0.1 dune mobility (Nature, 2009)

21 World grain trade depends on exports from a few countries Source: FAO 2009c. Note: Annual exports and imports are based on the average over four years ( ) Caribbean annual food import $3.5b. World Development Report 2010

22 Drought Early Warning Information Systems - Architecture DEWIS Research &Monitoring Management Decision Support Tools Services/product Delivery Capacity Coordination Regional, National, Local Institutions

1. Acknowledge the cross-scale nature of climate, of early warning information-and corresponding monitoring and research needs Specificity of reliable information provided by forecasts, especially

23 1. Acknowledge the cross-scale nature of climate, of early warning information-and corresponding monitoring and research needs Specificity of reliable information provided by forecasts, especially during non-enso years and projections limit the use of this information by farmers and others (accuracy vs. precision) Decadal prediction lies between initialized weather or ENSO forecasts, and future climate change projections-not just extremes or trends

24 Drought Early Warning-Useful monitoring regions for the US Southwest Cold PDO NAO warm AMO Improved monitoring and projections of the ocean will be critical for the future predictions of drought in the semi-arid West. Precipitation 24

25 Forecasting Tools Development-NIDIS CTB Updated Optimal Climate Normals (Temperature & Precipitation Trends) Improved Understanding of Drought and Ocean Conditions ENSO Plume Model Forecasts Improved Understanding of Drought and Land Conditions Reliability Conditioned on Decadal Variability National MultiModel Ensemble (NMME) Land-Data Assimilation System (LDAS) Experimental Climate Divisions and Regional Drought Forecasts Heat Waves Storm Track Variations Madden-Julian Oscillation El Niño-Southern Oscillation +????? Decadal Variability Solar Variability Deep Ocean Circulation Greenhouse Gases DAYS SEASON YEARS YEARS YEARS YEARS 100 SHORT-TERM INTERANNUAL DECADE-TO- CENTURY

26 NDMC AON Benfield $35bUS insured losses to Ag alone (not counting other impacts) Lack of social indicators to form part of a comprehensive early warning system 26

(extremes+ variability+change) and social impacts resulting in rapid transitions Reducing mitigation

27 3. Develop indicators and methodologies to assess thresholds in ecosystem services Drought-stress = precipitation, evaporative demand and heat stress Rates and transitions-are critical climate (extremes+ variability+change) and social impacts resulting in rapid transitions Reducing mitigation and emergency response costs-social and economic costs of environmental degradation on water, energy and food security

systems 5 Hard mitigation structure 1 to 2 Globally The total benefits of improved early warning systems

28 4. Understand and communicate the economic value of early warning information systems and the relative contributions of system components (World Bank 2011) Tunis Benefit-cost ratio of early warning information systems 5 Hard mitigation structure 1 to 2 Globally The total benefits of improved early warning systems would reach between 4 and 36 billion USD per year. Benefit-cost ratios between 4 and 35 with co-benefits (World Bank, 2011)

5. Governance and knowledge management Improving policy coherence and adaptive management Lack of national and regional drought policy frameworks Lack of coordination between institutions that

29 5. Governance and knowledge management Improving policy coherence and adaptive management Lack of national and regional drought policy frameworks Lack of coordination between institutions that provide different types of drought early warning Frame the goals and objectives of international and country and local-level program intervention strategy in terms of securities -water, food,energy, national Identify policies and practices that impede or enable the flow of information among information system components Monnik, 2000; Pulwarty and Verdin, 2013)

Integrated NATIONAL Monitoring and Forecasting Interdisciplinary Research and Applications U.S.

30 NIDIS Program Office NIDIS Governance: Executive Council NATIONAL NIDIS Implementation Team: NIDIS Technical Working Groups REGIONAL Public Law Public Awareness And Education Engaging Preparedness Communities Integrated NATIONAL Monitoring and Forecasting Interdisciplinary Research and Applications U.S. Drought Portal WATERSHED/URBAN/LOCAL Regional Drought Early Warning Systems Information clearinghouse,prototypes, and Implementation

Emergency management organizations can rarely play that role Efficiency- only occurs when CRM is carried out locally in partnership

31 Climate risk management: governance Accountability- CRM needs to be located in a ministry or department, preferably with planning oversight and some fiscal responsibility-provide political authority and policy coherence across sectors. Emergency management organizations can rarely play that role Efficiency- only occurs when CRM is carried out locally in partnership with atrisk households and communities and organizations that represent them. Benefits are cost-effectiveness, sustainability, citizenship and social cohesion.

water and other program operations Develop risk and vulnerability profiles of drought-prone regions and locales

32 6. Sustain a collaborative framework among research, monitoring and management Inventory and map local resource capabilities (infrastructure, personnel, and government/donor/ngosupported services) available to complement food, water and other program operations Develop risk and vulnerability profiles of drought-prone regions and locales including impact of benefits of early warning- Place multiple indicators within a statistically consistent triggering framework

Boundary organizations Support cross-regional efforts to assess user needs,

of drought, data and info needs of resource managers and policy/decision

Climate Prediction Center Drought Monitor Evaluate and transition drought

33 Boundary organizations Support cross-regional efforts to assess user needs, test drought-focused decision support tools Identify socio-economic effects of drought, data and info needs of resource managers and policy/decision makers PL Coping with Drought Research NOAA Physical Sciences IRI Climate Prediction Center Drought Monitor Evaluate and transition drought information products to operations Regional Climate Centers State Climatologists

7. Linking early warning to early response-finishing the last mile (km) Quality/pedigree of information available to decision-makers at all levels Factors that influence whether or not information

34 7. Linking early warning to early response-finishing the last mile (km) Quality/pedigree of information available to decision-makers at all levels Factors that influence whether or not information will be used Factors influencing whether risk communications are trusted Governance structures that facilitate better decision-making practice Adapting the decision-support systems to the different levels of decision makers

35 Specific( Humidity( Air(Temperature(Near(Surface( (Troposphere)( Glaciers( (Glacier(Mass(Balance)( 3+Datasets+ 7+Datasets+ 4+Datasets+ Temperature(Over(Oceans( 5+Datasets+ Snow(Cover( (March>April,(( Northern(Hemisphere)( Sea>Surface(Temperature( Sea(Level( 2+Datasets+ 7+Datasets+ 7+Datasets+ Sea>ice( Ocean(Heat(Content( Land(Surface(Air( Temperature(Over(Land( 3+Datasets+ 7+Datasets+ 5+Datasets+ 35

36 A changing climate leads to changes in extreme weather and climate events For exposed and vulnerable communities, even non-extreme weather and climate events can have extreme impacts 36

37 Are(the(assump;ons(about( planning(borne(out(by(what(we( know.from(the(past(climate( record,(present(variability(and( projected(condi;ons?( Are short-term decisions enabling or constraining longterm risks? Risks to investments in water, food, energy, security and development capitals Many potential climate futures

38 GFCS User Interface Platform 38!

39 Managing risks of disasters in a changing climate benefits from an iterative process Monitoring Innovation Evaluation Learning Learning-by-doing and low-regrets actions can help reduce risks now and also promote future adaptation 39

40 1. Acknowledge the cross-scale nature of climate, of early warning information and adaptation responseand corresponding monitoring and research needs \ 3. Integrated Indicators and methodologies to assess thresholds in agricultural and ecosystem services 4. Understand and communicate the economic value of early warning information 5. Governance of knowledge and risk-based information 6. Sustain a collaborative framework among research, monitoring and decision-making/management 7. Link early warning with early response -going the last mile -local information users

41 THANK YOU!

National Drought Forum 12-13 December, 2012 Hall of States Washington DC National Governors, USDA,

2012, and help provide new information and coordination for improving the nations drought readiness

next year Technical assistance Ensure sustained support for monitoring, streamgages and other data

42 National Drought Forum December, 2012 Hall of States Washington DC National Governors, USDA, Interior, NOAA, private sector Goals To understand the extent of 2012 drought impacts and response in 2012, and help provide new information and coordination for improving the nations drought readiness for 2013 and in the future Increase public awareness of this year s drought and potential impacts for next year Technical assistance Ensure sustained support for monitoring, streamgages and other data Outreach with impacted communities Conservation plans Sponsors-multiple (Keynotes-Sec Vilsack; Gov Brownback) MoU

risk management and climate change adaptation influence the

43 Increasing vulnerability, exposure, or severity and frequency of climate events increases disaster risk Disaster risk management and climate change adaptation influence the degree to which extreme events translate into impacts and disasters 43

45 Developing Climate Risk Profiles Vulnerable Sector/ activity/ group Magnitude Rates of Change Persistence and reversibility Likelihood and confidence Distribution Potential for Adaptation Economic sectors (Water, Ag, Tourism etc.) Communities at risk Bounded ecosystems such as coastal, mountain are already stressed Situation of existing Levels of vulnerability for different magnitudes of change, especially thresholds, relative to temperature, precipitation or the other critical parameters that create the vulnerability Critical rates/steeper response curves that affect vulnerability Likelihood that the vulnerable sector will be affected by an irreversible impact and whether it is likely to persist. Overall confidence and likelihood, but state confidence also with any specific figures or points. Distribution of impacts both physically and socially within countries (not in a simple developed/developing dichotomy). Capacity for adaptation. Is adaptive capacity sufficient to delay or prevent adverse impacts and at what cost. WGII &Leggett and Pulwarty

46 Year 1: Scoping the Drought Early Warning Information System Gap analyses: What information exists and how is it being coordinated and used? Characterize and communicate risks across timescales-with existing information for 2-3 critical issues Year 2. Implementation of the Drought Early Warning System (seasonal, multi-year, longer term trends): Develop drought sub-portals Embed information into preparedness and adaptation plans Establish network for ongoing briefings on impacts and projections across climate timescales Develop subteams to assess (1) Monitoring and forecasting; (2) Impact indicators and triggers (3) Preparedness and education: Assemble drought-sensitive planning indicators and management triggers database; Assess present drought information coordination partnerships and processes Identify Federal and state-level partnerships, decision support tools and actions needed (to improve information development, coordination and flow for preparedness and risk reduction) Develop an operational plan for designing and implementing an EWS process Initiate development region or basin specific Drought Information Monitor and Portal (as a subset of the U.S. Drought Portal) Develop decision support tools for demand projections and revise triggering criteria Prototyping: Given better data and information coordination would responses have been improved for past events? Assess (1) value of improved information using past conditions, (2) responses for projections/ scenarios (decadal, climate change), (3) feedback on priorities (e.g. data gaps) to Executive Council. Feedback into regional Drought Monitor and Portal. Early Warning System maintenance (Fedstate-tribal) and transfer to other sub-basins

47 NIDIS Regional Early Warning Information Systems 2-3 yrs! Pacific(( Northwest( Upper(Missouri( Great(Lakes( California Colorado River Basin Basin( Chesapeake(Bay( Tennessee(Valley( Southeast ACF Carolinas TX,OK,NM 30 DAYS ( 1-4 SEASONS SHORT-TERM- Seasonal >1 YEAR 10 YEARS 30 YEARS DECADE-TO- CENTURY 100 YEARS

48 Monitoring for extremes in the context of change: (World Bank, 2012; Hallegatte 2012) Potential benefits from upgrading to developed-country standards the hydro-meteorological information production and early warning capacity in all developing countries include: Between 300 million and 2 billion USD per year of avoided asset losses due to natural hazards An average of 23,000 saved lives per year, which is valued between 700 million and 3.5 billion USD per year using the Copenhagen Consensus guidelines; and Between 3 and 30 billion USD per year of additional economic benefits. The total benefits would reach between 4 and 36 billion USD per year. Benefit-cost ratios between 4 and 35 with co-benefits

The NIDIS Touch Identify appropriate partners and representatives Set goals and priorities-problem definition Use professionals from relevant agencies/communities etc.

49 The NIDIS Touch Identify appropriate partners and representatives Set goals and priorities-problem definition Use professionals from relevant agencies/communities etc. to build common ground Produce collectively authored gaps assessments for monitoring, forecasting and impacts-agreement on the way forward Build longer term collaborative partnerships that allows for query of provided information Determine tradeoffs and characterization: Decision quality vs decision acceptability

50 (Basic Indicators Widely Used Today)

Climate Services and Drought-The role of National Met and Hydro Services (NMHS)

Climate Services and Drought-The role of National Met and Hydro Services (NMHS) Roger S. Pulwarty PhD National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration roger.pulwarty@noaa.gov Drought information systems-lesson