Road Transport in India

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Nora Bryant
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Simple Interactive Models for Better Air Quality Road Transport in India 2010-30 Emissions,

1 Simple Interactive Models for Better Air Quality Road Transport in India Emissions, Pollution & Health Impacts Dr. Sarath Guttikunda Ms. Puja Jawahar November, 2012 Synopsis Report

Road Transport in India 2010-30 Emissions, Pollution, & Health Impacts India is the 7 th largest country in the world coveringg an area off 3.5 million km 2 and has a population of 1.2 billion.

the declining viability of the agriculturall sector. This, in addition to the fact that India now has the 4 th largestt economy in the world - $4.463 trillion (2011 est.

passenger and public transportt has led to more air pollution and GHG emissions.

than 30 percent of the ambient air quality in these cities either directly from the vehicle exhaust or indirectly via the resuspension of dust on roads due to vehicular movement.

5 concentrations due to road transport emissions the world average of 1.4 percent per year, more than quadrupling the total energy use from the road transport in 2035.

Besides major cities like Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai, Kolkata, Bangalore, Hyderabad, and Ahmedabad, the secondary cities (with population moree than 2 million) like Pune, Surat, Indore, Bhopal, Nagpur,

The increase in traffic along with inadequatee infrastructure facilities is responsible for higher emissionss of local pollutants andd GHGs in several of these cities.

2 Road Transport in India Emissions, Pollution, & Health Impacts India is the 7 th largest country in the world coveringg an area off 3.5 million km 2 and has a population of 1.2 billion. According to 2011 census figures, 30 percent of India s population lives in urban areas and the rate of urbanization is growing steadily due to the push/pull effects of employment opportunities and the declining viability of the agriculturall sector. This, in addition to the fact that India now has the 4 th largestt economy in the world - $4.463 trillion (2011 est.), has resulted in a large and growing movement of goods, services, and people fuelled by trade and employment opportunities almost all of which is powered by fossil fuels A growing demand of passenger and public transportt has led to more air pollution and GHG emissions. A study conducted by the Central Pollution Control Board (New Delhi, India) in six cities Delhi, Kanpur, Bangalore, Pune, Chennai, and Mumbai, concluded that the transportt sector contributes to more than 30 percent of the ambient air quality in these cities either directly from the vehicle exhaust or indirectly via the resuspension of dust on roads due to vehicular movement. According US Energy Information Administration, India's transportation energy use will grow at about Modeled ambient PM 5.5 percent a year significantly higher than 2.5 concentrations due to road transport emissions the world average of 1.4 percent per year, more than quadrupling the total energy use from the road transport in Likewise the per capita energy use for passenger vehicles in India is estimated to increase threefold. Besides major cities like Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai, Kolkata, Bangalore, Hyderabad, and Ahmedabad, the secondary cities (with population moree than 2 million) like Pune, Surat, Indore, Bhopal, Nagpur, Jaipur, Varanasi, Nagpur, Agra, Guwahati, Patna, Kanpur, Panaji, Trivandrum, and Cochin, are growing both geographically as well as in population, putting pressure on local infrastructure. The increase in traffic along with inadequatee infrastructure facilities is responsible for higher emissionss of local pollutants andd GHGs in several of these cities. While the message is clear; with the growing air pollution and GHG emissions from the transport sector in cities and at the national level, regulatory agencies will have to take a quantum leap, especially in terms of managing traffic in cities and freight at the national level. They will have to implement radical solutions ranging from technical, social, policy, to economic, within a short time-fram for long-term sector in India which could effectively result in a co-benefits framework for better air gains. This study focuses on the energy and emissions outlook for the transportt quality management in the cities and a national climate policy dialogue.

The total registered vehicle fleet in India

cost, fuel efficiency, and ease of use in

all terrains from high altitude Kashmir to

2010, thee per capita rate of ownership of

increase proportionately and consequently

fleet concentrated in the urban centers.

following pollutants particulates in two

Dioxide (CO 2 ), for the period of 2010 to

3 The total registered vehicle fleet in India is 112 million in Of the passenger transport fleet, 2-Wheelers aree very popular due to their cost, fuel efficiency, and ease of use in congested traffic. All the vehicles (motorized and nonboth motorized) are utilized for multiple purposes, for passenger and freight transport, varying loading conditions, at all terrains from high altitude Kashmir to the plains of Tamilnadu and Kerala. While the total vehicle numbers have increased significantly between 1990 and 2010, thee per capita rate of ownership of private cars in India is still lower than many of the European Nations, United States,, and Shares of registered vehicles in 2010 Canada. As incomes rise, car ownership will increase proportionately and consequently the total emissions and pollution. We estimate that the total fleet will increase to 500 to 600 million by 2030, based on low and high sales growth projections, with major of the passenger fleet concentrated in the urban centers. The emissions inventory is built for the following pollutants particulates in two bins (PM 10, PM 2.5 ), sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ), nitrogen oxides (NO x ), carbon monoxide (CO), volatile organic compounds (VOC), black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC) and Carbon Dioxide (CO 2 ), for the period of 2010 to 2030 under the business as usual and some control scenarios. Baselinee emissions inventory for year 2010 due to road transport in India 2W = 2-wheelers; 3W = wheelers; 4W = 4-wheelers includingg cars and jeeps; HDT = heavy duty trucks; LDT = light duty trucks; OTH = others including tractors and multi-utility vehicles Emissions from the transport sector are a result of multiple factors - including but not limited to, vehicle fuel standards, badly maintained roads and public transport vehicles, lack of transportation and urban planning, adulterated fuel, aging fleet, and freight movement. There

While technological improvements and stricter emission standards will decrease the on-road the large emissions, factors such as a greater number of vehicles (diesel fuelled in particular), number of

4 cannot be a silver bullet to address this issue and one cannot have an impact on emissions from transportt using only one policy instrument. For instance improving vehicle standards by itself will not reduce pollution, unlesss it is accompanied by a host of other complementing policies. While technological improvements and stricter emission standards will decrease the on-road the large emissions, factors such as a greater number of vehicles (diesel fuelled in particular), number of short trips and traffic congestion may offset the benefits derived from these improvements. A summary of results from business as usual and assumed what-if scenarios is presented below. Estimated energy and emissions outlook for the road transport in India It is assumed that the actual emissions in 2030 could be anywhere between the red line (businesss as usual - BAU) and the dotted black line (LE5-15UPT = lower sales projections with introduction of Bharat 5 (equivalent of Euro 5) standards by 2015, with an aggressive urban passenger transport policy to promote public transportt and non-motorized transport, in order to reducee 25 percent of the vehicle kilometers traveled from passenger vehicles). The total emissions are further gridded to a spatial resolution of 0.25 grid size covering an area between 7 N to 39 N in latitude and 37 E to 99 E in longitude, utilizing (a) gridded population (b) gridded road density maps (c) activity maps like ports and airports that are hot spots to freight movement ( d) urban center locations that aree hot spots to the passenger travel (e) landuse maps distinguishing populated, agricultural, mining, and forest areas. These layers of information, along with modeling results are present in the panel off maps. We utilized the Comprehensive Air Quality Model with Extensions (CAMx), an Eulerian photochemical dispersion model that allows for integrated assessments of gaseous and particulate air pollution over many scales ranging from sub-urban to continental, to calculate the ambient particulate (PM) concentrations for emission projections between 2010 and The meteorological data is derived from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) global reanalysis and processed through the RAMS version 6.0 meteorological model. Visit mixing heights for yearr 2010 at 2 hour interval. for animations of surface wind speed and direction, precipitation, and

5 Road Transport in India : Emissions, Pollution, & Health Impacts Road network Urban Centers Gridded NOx emissions 2030 BAU Modeled PM BAU Modeledd PM BAU Modeled PM LE5-15UPT Gridded population in 2010 % change from 2010 to 2030 BAU % change to 2030 controled

Air pollution disproportionately affects those most vulnerable (sick, old, and children) and in India, those with means travel in cars and use air conditioning indoors, which to a small extent

Health impact analysis following the dispersion modeling under various scenarios, estimates the mortality and morbidity as a result of particulate pollution using concentration-response functions

The indirect impacts of exposuree to pollutants are many - an increase in inflammation, cardiac conditions, decreasee in fertility, cancer, premature birth, among others.

6 Air pollution disproportionately affects those most vulnerable (sick, old, and children) and in India, those with means travel in cars and use air conditioning indoors, which to a small extent insulatess them from chronic pollutant exposure. However, most people are directly exposed to pollution on road corridors or those living along the roads bear the brunt. Health impact analysis following the dispersion modeling under various scenarios, estimates the mortality and morbidity as a result of particulate pollution using concentration-response functions from extensivee epidemiological studies. This in all likelihood iss a gross underestimatee that captures only the direct impacts of air pollution (respiratory illness, allergies etc.). The indirect impacts of exposuree to pollutants are many - an increase in inflammation, cardiac conditions, decreasee in fertility, cancer, premature birth, among others. Summary of Emissions and Health impactss of road transport in India BAU 2030 LE5-15UPT Total population (billion) Total Air Emissions (tons/year) Particulates (PM 2.5 ) Nitrogen Oxides (NO x ) Carbon Monoxide (CO) Black Carbon (BC) Volatile Organic Compounds (VOC) Total eco2 emissions (million tons/year) Mortality Premature mortality (lower bound) Premature mortality (higher bound) Morbidity Adult Chronic Bronchitis Child Acute Bronchitis Respiratory Hospital Admission Cardiac Hospital Admission Emergency Room Visit Asthma Attacks Restricted Activity Days (million) Respiratory Symptom Days (million) ,000 3,400,000 3,750,000 66,500 1,800, ,500 49,500 60, ,000 30,000 8, Business as usual 1.5 Controlled , ,000 8,400,000 5,,100,000 8,650,000 3,,800, , ,500 3,500,000 1,,400, ,500 26, , , , ,000 1,370, ,000 90,000 40,000 24,000 11, The health impacts of pollution from the transport sector are not insignificant and the nature of the issue is that those areas with the most population density are most affected. The only way we can have a real impact on air pollution from thee transport sector is by setting standards and enforcing them; as well as putting in the means for people to change behaviors (use more public transport and NMT for example). This will require a concerted and coordinated effort between with multiple stakeholders like individuals, industry, and the government to implement and enforce policies. A developed country is not a place where the poor have cars. It's where the rich use public transportation. Enrique Penãlosa, Mayor of Bogota, Columbia

The Air Pollution Knowledge Assessment (APnA) City Program

The Air Pollution Knowledge Assessment (APnA) City Program 1 APnA Cities (2017) Agra, Amritsar, Bengaluru, Bhopal, Bhubaneswar, Chandigarh, Chennai, Coimbatore, Dehradun, Indore, Jaipur, Kanpur, Kochi,