Building Capacity to Model Co benefits and Integrating the Results into Decision Making Process

Transcription

1 Building Capacity to Model Co benefits and Integrating the Results into Decision Making Process Dr. Sarath Guttikunda UrbanEmissions.Info, New Delhi, India Affiliate Associate Research Professor, Desert Research Institute, Reno, USA International Workshop on a Co Benefits Approach: A Dialogue between Policy Makers and Researchers Organized by IGES (Japan), MoE (Japan) and IIASA IGES headquarters in Hayama, Kanagawa Prefecture, Japan, February 13 14, 2012

2 BC CO 2 Local Priorities? PM Sources?

3 Traditional sources of air pollution power plants construction garbage burning industries road dust vehicle exhaust domestic fuels

4 Sectors with the most Co benefits Industries Brick kilns Generator sets Transport sector Freight movement on road, rail, and ship Diesel emission management in the cities Domestic sector rural biomass cooking Generator sets

5 Building Capacity for Co Benefits Modeling monitoring hot spots apportionment institutional policy stakeholders options Information Analysis Options Dialogue 1 data collection 2 emissions 3 technical 4 cost & benefits dispersion economic prioritization impacts impacts

6 Building Capacity for Co Benefits Modeling monitoring hot spots apportionment institutional policy stakeholders options Information Analysis Options Dialogue 1 data collection 2 emissions 3 technical 4 cost & benefits dispersion economic prioritization impacts impacts

7 Knowing the sources and their potential is the main component of capacity building Generalization vs. Micro management Barriers to information

8 Brick kiln Industry in India Average production is ~15K 30K per day per kiln Total national production is ~140 billion per year Average coal use is ~20 tons per 100,000 bricks Total coal use is ~24 million tons per year, equivalent of ~50 million tons of CO2 Fuel mix is coal and agricultural waste Not including loss of top soil and water runoffs

9 Barrier s to information An official, but unorganized sector Seasonal production worst in the winter months Locations are unknown Most outside the city limits and not audited Production rates and fuel mix is unknown Type of kilns varies with regions and fuel mix

10 Brick kiln Industry in India Chennai, ~550 Pune, ~400 Ahmedabad, ~400 Delhi, ~800

11 Indo Gangetic Region Transport Rural biomass cooking Agricultural Industries Brick kilns PM 10

12 Diesel use for electricity generation Average use in a big hotel is ~20K 30K liters per month In India, ~300,000 cell phone towers, with ~60% operating on diesel generators One car, 40km a day, consumes ~100 liters per month

13 Barrier s to information Sizes vary with the sectors in use Larger are more efficient than the smaller ones Fuel use is dependent on the power supply from the grid Best estimate is monthly use from receipts from major users

14 Generator Usage in Pune, India Hospitals Hotels Apartments and Markets Other cities in India Hyderabad, Chennai, Ahmedabad, Delhi, Surat, Indore, Rajkot, Kolkata, Bangalore

15 2010 CW Games Delhi, India Mobile lidar monitoring provided spatial and temporal evolution of pollution during the games. Pollution due to high congestion is reflected in the results October 10 th, 2010 Concentrations Emissions

16 Urban Vehicle Movement Hour PM 2.5 Delhi - ITO Station PM 2.5 & SO 2 ( g/m 3 ) Diurnal Variation

17 Barrier s to information The shipping industry is at large Port loads should be used for on road truck movement, instead of the registered trucks in the state or city National emissions estimates is different Shipping emissions are often neglected to the sea Fuel mix is unknown Around port cities, bunker fuel is observed in use at brick kilns Limited information on truck emissions, loads, and their driving cycles,

18 Non Urban Freight Movement Rohtang pass, Himachal Pradesh

19 Barrier s to information In case of India, most of the high altitude passes are under military use, with limited information on the truck kilometers travels Limited studies on the emission rates at high altitudes Best estimates are extrapolated using empirical functions and often underestimate Limited information on the vehicle speeds and km travels

20 Building Capacity for Co Benefits Modeling monitoring hot spots apportionment institutional policy stakeholders options Information Analysis Options Dialogue 1 data collection 2 emissions 3 technical 4 cost & benefits dispersion economic prioritization impacts impacts

21 PM 2.5 Total Urban Emissions Pune Ahmedabad Chennai IND = industries; PP = power plants; DOM = domestic; TR = transport; RD = road dust; WB = waste burning; CON = construction activities; BK = brick kilns; GS/DG = generator sets Delhi

22 % ground based emissions in south Delhi Gridded Vehicle Exhaust PM 2.5 Emissions (tons/grid) PM 2.5 PM 10 IND = industries; PP = power plants; DOM = domestic; TR = transport; RD = road dust; WB = waste burning; CON = construction activities; BK = brick kilns; DG = diesel generator sets; LFB = landfill burning

23 % ground based emissions in NE of Delhi Gridded Vehicle Exhaust PM 2.5 Emissions (tons/grid) PM 2.5 PM 10 IND = industries; PP = power plants; DOM = domestic; TR = transport; RD = road dust; WB = waste burning; CON = construction activities; BK = brick kilns; DG = diesel generator sets; LFB = landfill burning

24 % ground based emissions in Gurgaon Gridded Vehicle Exhaust PM 2.5 Emissions (tons/grid) PM 2.5 PM 10 IND = industries; PP = power plants; DOM = domestic; TR = transport; RD = road dust; WB = waste burning; CON = construction activities; BK = brick kilns; DG = diesel generator sets; LFB = landfill burning

25 PM 2.5 Pollution from Brick Kilns in the Greater Dhaka Region & Spatial Apportionment

26 (2012) Domain 1 Power Plants Road Network Population Landuse 21 Urban 20 Water and Land Mixtures 19 Forest/Field Mosaic 18 Mixed Forest 17 Deciduous Shrubs 16 Evergreen Shrubs 15 Ocean 14 Inland Water 13 Bogs and Marshes 12 Ice Caps and Glaciers 11 Semidesert 10 Irrigated Crops 9 Tundra 8 Desert 7 Tall Grass 6 Evergreen Broadleaf Trees 5 Deciduous Broadleaf Trees 4 Deciduous Needleleaf Trees 3 Evergreen Needleleaf Trees 2 Short Grass 1 Crops, Mixed Farming Domain 2 Gridded Inventory

27 Building Capacity for Co Benefits Modeling monitoring hot spots apportionment institutional policy stakeholders options Information Analysis Options Dialogue 1 data collection 2 emissions 3 technical 4 cost & benefits dispersion economic prioritization impacts impacts

28 Strategies for Immediate Co Benefits Brick kilns emerging technologies and replacement material High altitude sources freight movement and vehicle and road maintenance programs Freight movement and management on road, rail, and ship Domestic sector rural biomass cooking

29 Building Capacity for Co Benefits Modeling monitoring hot spots apportionment institutional policy stakeholders options Information Analysis Options Dialogue 1 data collection 2 emissions 3 technical 4 cost & benefits dispersion economic prioritization impacts impacts

30 Pune Dec/28/2011 Pune Dec/29/2011 Public Awareness & Dialogue with Policy Makers Delhi Jan/3/2012 Ahmedabad Jan/18/2012 Indore Jan/21/2012

31 Minimizing Barriers to Capacity Building Better understanding of the urban sources Need better mapping procedures to maximize health benefits in the cities and reduction of short lived climate forcers Emerging technologies are accessible Need to prioritize sectors for benefits

32 Thank you Questions? Dr. Sarath Guttikunda New Delhi, India September, 2011