Enabling Delta life.

Transcription

1 Enabling Delta life. The Evolution of Dutch Delta Planning Jaap Kwadijk Director of Science Deltares The Loire river and its aflluents in the heart of Europe rivers, Orleans, december 10-11, 2014,

2 Deltares formed to avoid this in NL

3 Research topics

4 Flood risk in The Netherlands 2/3 flood-prone, 9 million inhabitants, 65% GNP, 1800 billion invested value Economically Efficient Flood Protection Standards 20th November 2012

5 Decisions may have long term consequences

6 All generations have their own flood)

7 7 Before 1995, Dutch reaction built infrastructure

8 1995, a transition, Room for the River zwolle? wijhe olst deventer zutphen leerdam gorichem wijk bij duurstede geldermalsen wageningen rhenen strenghtened dike nijmegen arnhem doesburg doetinchem westervoort zaltbommel mook km km boxmeer T en_sh

9 Instead of raising levees, eco engineering: Flood reduction by: 2 - lowering groynes 3 - deepening main channel 7 - removal embankments 8 - side channels 9 - lowering floodplain 10 - changing vegetation 11 - removal of obstacles 13 - displacement main river dike 14 - retention behind dike 15 - stopping lateral inflow

10 Sea level rise and Climate change

11 Meaning for the Netherlands Higher temperatures More (heavy) rainfall More evaporation (water losses) Higher storm surges More floods from the sea and rivers More low flows Salinisation More periods with high water temperatures

12 Included in the water management planning in 2001

13 The Netherlands around the year 2000 Extremely high safety standards + maintenance were put in the law => Safest delta in the world

14 Most recent flood disaster and the Dutch response

15 New Orleans

16 Now look who is talking. Al Gore, inconvenient truth

17 Now we had a problem: The risk of climate change / sea level rise is not the flood hazard itself but The image that the Netherlands might not be safe anymore for investments Now that is a major risk!! 17

18 2 nd Delta commission Finding: Scientists do not agree on magnitude of Climate Change and Sea Level Rise Asked basically four questions 1. What is the maximum plausible SLR between now and 2100 (130cm) 2. Are we able to defend the Netherlands to that rise (YES) 3. What will it cost ( ~ 1 B / yr ) 4. Can we pay this (YES) OK, than that is what we will do, discussion closed => Parlement agreed upon the Delta Act

19 Costs approached as an insurance fee 1B per year until 2100, less than 1% of the GNP; less than 1 (per mille) of the invested infrastructure) 19

20 Delta Commission, achieved three targets: In 1 year: a budget ( 1B annually) a delta commissioner (Wim Kuijken => delta program) a law ( the Delta act) Role of the research community: Organizing very rapidly (int.) scientific support

21 Delta program 3 national programmes: Safety: Standards, Delta dikes, Building with Nature Freshwater Reconstruction and development 6 regional programmes Criticism: too little environmental quality, too much focus on NL only (rivers) Delta Programme Commissioner

22 Advice 2 nd Delta committee 2008: Flood prone areas Water defences are not up to 1960 standards (following 1 st Delta Committee) Current standards are inadequate (recommendation increase safety with a factor 10!) Climate change may accelerate

23 What models showed Maximum inundation depths Flood prone areas

24 Results Efficient standards Existing standards Legend 1/500 1/ / / / / /

25 Good research (models) can save a lot of money In billion euro Original advice: Our advise: Difference General tenfold increase Increase protection in 3 areas Investment cost Reduction of expected flood damages Net result

26 Delta planning is changing, trend 2 bottom-up TOP->DOWN Delta works Dikes and barriers BOTTOM->UP Delta programme 2010-> Re-design of the water management in the Netherlands 26

27 Some interesting similarities between the Loire and the Rhine-Meuse delta Loire: 1994: Le plan Loire grandeur nature. After fierce ecological conflicts concerning the construction of dams. (Top->Down) Rhine: 1996: Room for the River: After fierce ecological conflicts and two major floods. (Top->Dow mainly Rijkswaterstaat) Loire 2007: two interregional Legal and financial instruments: a State/Water Agency/Regions/Loire River + an EU Operational Programme with ERDF funding. The Rhine Meuse delta 2008: a Law: The delta act; funding: fixed budget 1 B-EURO/yr Loire 2014: le plan Loire grandeur nature: an interesting example of stakeholders involvement, opening the way to a peaceful (not to say smooth ) integrated management of the Loire river basin. Rhine: 2014: Deltaprogramme : Bottom-up, a spatial planning project rather than a river engineering project done by Rijkswaterstaat.

28 A framework for Adaptive Delta management Adaptation planning for an unknown future by Marjolijn Haasnoot, Warren Walker (RAND- TUDelft), Jan Kwakkel (TU-Delft)

29 Summarizing the Traditional Approach to Policy Analysis* * Warren E. Walker, Policy Analysis: A Systematic Approach to Supporting Policymaking in the Public Sector, Journal of Multicriteria Decision Analysis, Volume 9, No. 1-3 (2000), pp

30 Classical approach to arrive at water management scenarios Population and economical growth energy demand land use Energy-economy models Greenhouse gas emissions carbon cycle models Greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere Global + regional climate models Global/regional climate projections Hydrologic + hydraulic modellen Hydrologic effects Measures Water management

31 Measures typically very expensive (Room for the River 3,000,000,000 EURO Flood reduction by: 2 - lowering groynes 3 - deepening main channel 7 - removal embankments 8 - side channels 9 - lowering floodplain 10 - changing vegetation 11 - removal of obstacles 13 - displacement main river dike 14 - retention behind dike 15 - stopping lateral inflow

32 So the difficulty in communication between scientists and decision makers (part I) You have a problem, the climate is changing! Scientist Decision maker

33 discharge [m3/s] So the difficulty in communication between hydrologists and decision makers (part I) How much.? Discharge Lobith date Scientist Decision maker

34 Definition of Deep Uncertainty* A situation in which the relevant actors do not know, or cannot agree upon: how the system works how likely or plausible various future states are how to value the various outcomes of interest * Walker, Warren E., Robert J. Lempert, and Jan H. Kwakkel (2013). Deep Uncertainty, entry (pp ) in Saul I. Gass and Michael C. Fu (eds.), Encyclopedia of Operations Research and Management Science., 3 rd Edition, New York: Springer. 34

35 Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways an approach to support decision making under uncertainty that produces a dynamic, flexible plan that can be adapted as conditions change.

36 DAP Conducts the Analysis Backwards Traditional Approaches (Level 1-3 Uncertainty) The DAP Approach (Level 4 Uncertainty) 36

37 Key philosophy Adaptation to climate change has no value in itself. We do this because we want to live, work etc. in the Rhine- Meuse delta.

38 Corner stone 1: Adaptation Tipping Point & Use by date of policy action A stress test: How much (climate) change can we cope with? When do start to achieve missing our objectives? Water Protection Trade volume demand level Water Navigability Flood availability safety Climate Risk, Q, change h, sea level Time scenario A Time scenario B 2060 Decision moment = f (time A, time B, lead time action) 2060 Kwadijk, J.C.J. et al 2010 WIRES Climate Change DOI: /wcc.64, Haasnoot et al 2012 Climatic Change

39 Examples of conclusions Fresh water intake at Gouda no longer reliable (not before 2040) Design criterium Maeslant barrier will be exceeded (not before 2060) Protection of the coast by sand nourishment (no problem in this century)

40 Small ships Medium ships Current situation Small dredging Large dredging Corner stone 2: Adaptation Pathways Example: How to keep a river navigable in a changing environment that may result in lower water levels in the river? Time Years Transfer station to new adaptation action Adaptation Tipping Point of a policy ( action ) Terminal Policy action effective in all scenarios Policy action not effective in worst scenario Scorecard Path actions Costs for Pathways Target effects Side effects Haasnoot et al. (2012). Clim. Change.; Haasnoot et al. (2013) Glob. Env. Change /j.gloenvcha

41 Actual use of DAP In the Delta Programme, adaptive delta management is the basic principle. Typical features of this approach are that interventions are not necessarily dimensioned on the basis of the worst-case scenario, and that no fixed final picture is assumed for Delta Programme 2015: Working on the Delta The decisions to keep the Netherlands safe and liveable, The Ministry of Infrastructure and the Environment, September 2014, p. 138.

42 What work is most needed to implement sound strategies? Approach the topic not from top down only. Make very clear what the benefits of the adaptive measures are now. Stop communicate adaptation measures are needed to reduce the suffering, be careful with communicating gloom and doom scenarios

43 Pathways are emerging Thames Estuary 2100