Hydrogen. scaling up. A sustainable pathway for the global energy transition HYDROGEN COUNCIL COP NOVEMBER 2017

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1 Hydrogen scaling up A sustainable pathway for the global energy transition HYDROGEN COUNCIL COP NOVEMBER 201

2 This study is the first comprehensive, ambitious Hydrogen roadmap Objectives of the study First comprehensive quantified vision and roadmap for deployment Not a forecast, but an ambitious yet realistic scenario Answers the question How could hydrogen contribute to achieving the two degree scenario? 2

3 Hydrogen: a central pillar of the required energy transition Estimated impact in % of final energy demand Gt annual CO 2 abatement $200 bn annual sales (hydrogen and equipment 1 ) 30 million jobs created 1 Value add of fuel cells, IEA ETP Hydrogen and Fuel Cells CBS, National Energy Outlook 201 3

4 In a 2-degree-world, hydrogen could contribute ~18% of demand Potential global energy demand supplied with hydrogen, Exajoule (EJ) Power generation, buffering 22 Transportation Industrial energy Building heat and power 18% of final energy demand New feedstock (CCU, DRI) Existing feedstock uses

5 Hydrogen has significant potential across all applications Bubble size indicates hydrogen potential in 200 in EJ (1 EJ) 1 Power generation Power generation Transportation Small cars Trains & tramways Synfuel 2 Buffer 1 Trucks Passenger ships Mid-sized/ large cars Coaches & buses Vans & minibuses Forklifts Industrial energy Medium-/low industry heat High-grade industry heat Building heat and power Heating/co-generation in countries without gas networks Heating/co-generation in countries with gas networks Industry feedstock Steel (DRI) CCU for methanol, olefins, BTX3 Refining Ammonia, methanol 0% 10% 20% 30% 0% 0% 80% 100% 1 Percent of total annual growth in hydrogen and variable renewable power demand 2 For aviation and freight ships 3 Percent of total methanol, olefin, BTX production using olefins and captured carbon Relative importance by 200 Market share potential in segment

6 Half of the total CO2 abatement potential will come from transport CO2 avoidance potential 200, Gigatons 1 Power generation, buffering 0. Cars 1. Transportation Industry energy Building heating and power Industry feedstock Trucks 0.8 Buses 0.2 Other 1 0. Hydrogen has the potential to achieve ~0% of the required abatement 2 in transport by 200 Total.0 Total Aviation, shipping, rail, material handling 2 Difference between IEA Reference Technology and 2 degree scenario SOURCE: IEA, Hydrogen Council

7 The technologies exist and are ready to be deployed Start of commercialization Mass market acceptability 1 1 Power generation In renewables-constrained countries In other countries Transportation Forklifts Medium and large cars City buses Vans Coaches Trucks Trams and railways Small cars Minibuses Synfuel for freight ships and airplanes Industrial energy Building heat and power Industry feedstock Passenger ships Refining Ammonia, methanol Medium-/low industry heat High-grade industry heat Blended hydrogen heating Pure hydrogen heating Production of methanol, olefins and BTX using H 2 and captured carbon 2 Steel 3 Decarbonization of feedstock Today Mass market acceptability defined as sales >1% within segment in priority markets 2 Market share refers to the amount of production that uses hydrogen and captured carbon to replace feedstock 3 DRI with green H 2, iron reduction in blast furnaces and other low-carbon steel making processes using H2 Market share refers to the amount of feedstock that is produced from low-carbon sources

8 Important milestones already for 2030 to reach the 200 vision 1 in 12 passenger cars sold in early-adoption markets (Germany, California, Japan and South Korea) FCEVs 3. Mt hydrogen used for high-grade heat in first large-scale projects 0 million households connected to a network safely blending hydrogen and natural gas 20 Mt CO 2 converted to chemicals and intermediates such as methanol using hydrogen 8

9 Investments of $280bn until 2030 build $10bn+ annual market $ billion 1 Enable the renewable energy system Decarbonize end uses Total Hydrogen production Storage, transport, and distribution End-uses in transportation, industry energy, buildings and feedstock Investment potential Annual revenues Excluding existing feedstock uses, Considering only hydrogen value-added 9

10 Hydrogen Council members have started investing and deploying Enable the renewable energy system Decarbonize end uses Hydrogen Council Steering members Supporting members 10

11 First comprehensive quantified vision of the long-term potential of hydrogen and a roadmap for deployment Energy system development 200 hydrogen vision 2030 hydrogen milestones 200 energy system Hydrogen adoption in industry segments Ramp-up logic and investments Followers Early adopters An ambitious yet realistic scenario of the role of hydrogen in a two degree scenario, based on the perspectives of the Hydrogen Council 11

12 Global rollout after 2030 could amplify growth towards 200 Example: FCEV Rollout Million Vehicles Leaders Followers Rest of world Leader 2030 Follower Leader Follower 200 Rest 12