Shortage Impacts to CAP Priority Pools and Customers. Shortage Workshop April 22, 2015

Transcription

1 Shrtage Impacts t CAP Pririty Pls and Custmers Shrtage Wrkshp April 22, 2015

2 Pririties within CAP Annual CAP water deliveries first meet Lng-term Cntract demands Then Excess demands are met Excess includes the Agricultural Settlement Pl and water fr undergrund strage and replenishment As lng-term cntractrs have grwn int their entitlements, less Excess water has been available In the near-term, Excess water serves as a shrtage buffer t lngterm cntractrs

3 Histric CAP Deliveries 2014

4 2014 CAP Deliveries (AF) 1,600,000 Lw 1,400,000 Other Excess 132 KAF 1,200,000 Excess Water 530,000 AF Excess Ag Pl 400 KAF CAP Delivery Pririty Acre Feet 1,000, , , ,000 NIA Pririty 177 KAF Lng-Term Cntract Water Indian 995,000 M&I AF Pririty Pririty 431 KAF 318 KAF 1,525,000 AF High 200,000 0 Pririty 3-68 KAF

5 Pririties within CAP Lng-term Cntracts have a pririty scheme that insulates cities and tribes frm many f the impacts f shrtage Fur lng-term cntract Pririty types: Highest Equal Lwest Pririty 3 (P3) Pririty Indian Pririty Municipal & Industrial (M&I) Pririty Nn-Indian Agricultural (NIA) Pririty

6 2014 Deliveries by Pririty (AF) 1,600,000 Lw 1,400,000 Other Excess 132 KAF 1,200,000 Excess Water 530,000 AF Ag Pl 400 KAF CAP Delivery Pririty Acre Feet 1,000, , , ,000 NIA Pririty 177 KAF Indian Lng-Term Cntract Water Pririty 995,000 M&I AF Pririty 431 KAF 318 KAF 1,525,000 AF High 200,000 0 Pririty 3-68 KAF

7 2014 Deliveries by Pririty (AF) 1,600,000 Lw 1,400,000 1,200,000 Other Excess 132 KAF Excess Water 530,000 AF Ag Pl 400 KAF Ag CAP Delivery Pririty Tribes Acre Feet 1,000, , , ,000 NIA Pririty 177 KAF Indian Lng-Term Cntract Water Pririty 995,000 M&I AF Pririty 431 KAF 318 KAF Ci<es 200,000 High 0 Pririty 3-68 KAF

8 Annual Water Scheduling Prcess Shrtage? Declaratin f Clrad River Supply (fr next calendar year) Reclamatin n behalf f the Secretary f Interir Clrad River AOP (CRMWG) August 24-Mnth Study Final Cnsultatin August Nrmal? Surplus?

9 Annual Water Scheduling Prcess August: Declaratin f Clrad River Supply fr next calendar year September: CAP estimates available Clrad River supply Typically MAF Submits estimated diversin schedule t Reclamatin

10 Annual Water Scheduling Prcess August: Declaratin f Clrad River Supply fr next calendar year September: CAP estimates available Clrad River supply Octber 1: CAP custmers water rders submitted M&I Federal/Indian (Oct. 10) Ag Settlement Pl

11 Annual Water Scheduling Prcess August: Declaratin f Clrad River Supply fr next calendar year September: CAP estimates available Clrad River supply Octber 1: CAP custmers water rders submitted Nvember 1: Access t Excess Supply - Statutry Banking Pl AWBA CAGRD Replenishment Obligatin & Reserve Reclamatin Indian Firming

12 Annual Water Scheduling Prcess August: Declaratin f Clrad River Supply fr next calendar year September: CAP estimates available Clrad River supply Octber 1: CAP custmers water rders submitted Nvember 1: A2E supply t Statutry Banking Pl Nvember 15: Final CAP Annual Operating Plan USF Recharge Capacities Canal Capacities Lake Pleasant strage & peratins Maintenance & Engineering Outages Finalized Water Delivery Schedules The Plan

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14 Annual Water Scheduling Prcess August: Declaratin f Clrad River Supply fr next calendar year September: CAP estimates available Clrad River supply Octber 1: CAP custmers water rders submitted Nvember 1: A2E supply t Statutry Banking Pl Nvember 15: Final CAP Annual Operating Plan December 15: Schedule NGS energy Estimate Hver and Waddell energy Finalize NGS Energy Reserves Submit t Reclamatin and WAPA

15 Near-Term CAP Prjectins Near-term CAP rder prjectins are develped annually t assist peratins and planning. Assumptins: Nrmal year delivery vlume f 1.54 MAF 2014: MAF delivered 2015: MAF rdered N majr changes in custmer rders Slight increase in lng-term cntract rders abve 2015 Similar rate f Lng-Term Strage Credit (LTSC) accrual Increased availability f NIA-pririty water White Muntain Apache Tribe s allcatin finalized by 2016 Recent NIA reallcatin (46,629 AF) finalized and rdered in 2017

16 2016 Prjected CAP Orders 1,600,000 Lw 1,400,000 Other Excess 127 KAF 1,200,000 Ag Pl 400 KAF Excess Water CAP Delivery Pririty Acre Feet 1,000, , , ,000 Indian Pririty 326 KAF NIA Pririty 178 KAF M&I Pririty 441 KAF Lng- term Cntract Water High 200,000 0 Pririty 3-68 KAF

17 2016 Prjected Tier 1 Shrtage Impact 1,600,000 Lw 1,400,000 Other Excess Shrtage Ag Pl Shrtage 192 KAF 320,000 1,200,000 Ag Pl 208 KAF CAP Delivery Pririty Acre Feet 1,000, , , ,000 Indian Pririty 326 KAF NIA Pririty 178 KAF M&I Pririty 441 KAF High 200,000 0 Pririty 3-68 KAF

18 2017 Prjected CAP Orders 1,600,000 Lw 1,400,000 1,200,000 Other Excess 175 KAF Ag Pl 300 KAF Excess Water CAP Delivery Pririty Acre Feet 1,000, , , ,000 Indian Pririty 326 KAF NIA Pririty 222 KAF M&I Pririty 448 KAF Lng- term Cntract Water High 200,000 0 Pririty 3-68 KAF

19 2017 Prjected Tier 1 Shrtage Impact 1,600,000 Lw 1,400,000 Other Excess Shrtage Ag Pl Shrtage 143 KAF 320,000 1,200,000 Ag Pl 157 KAF CAP Delivery Pririty Acre Feet 1,000, , , ,000 Indian Pririty 326 KAF NIA Pririty 222 KAF M&I Pririty 448 KAF High 200,000 0 Pririty 3-68 KAF

20 Near-term Tier 2 Shrtage Impact 1,600,000 Lw 1,400,000 1,200,000 Other Excess Shrtage Ag Pl Shrtage 223 KAF 400,000 Ag Pl 77 KAF CAP Delivery Pririty Acre Feet 1,000, , , ,000 Indian Pririty 326 KAF NIA Pririty 222 KAF M&I Pririty 448 KAF High 200,000 0 Pririty 3-68 KAF

21 Prjectin Uncertainties There are several CAP supply & demand uncertainties On-river use à ttal available CAP delivery supply Changes in custmer rdering patterns Availability f ther supplies There are additinal uncertainties during shrtage Drught-related cnservatin r behaviral changes affecting lng-term cntract rders Impact f rate increases