Ecological models for flow scenario and optimisation tools

Transcription

1 You can change this image to be appropriate for your topic by inserting an image in this space or use the alternate title slide with lines. Note: only one image should be used and do not overlap the title text. Enter your Business Unit or Flagship name in the ribbon above the url. Add collaborator logos in the white space below the ribbon. [delete instructions before use] Source of Images: CSIRO, NSW OEH, ANU Ecological models for flow scenario and optimisation tools Carmel A. Pollino Stream Leader: Ecosystem Response to Flows 3 May 212 WATER FOR A HEALTHY COUNTRY

2 Ecological models for flow scenario and optimisation tools Where to target environmental water? Defining unique habitats and refugia Predicting ecological outcomes Ecological Response Models FF_last_ten_yrs (Low Floodplain) one in one one in two 1 one in five one in ten less one in ten Suitabiliy_FF1 Extreme Optimal 1 Time Since Last (Low_Floodplain) current up to 5y btn 5 to 1 btn 1 to 2 1 btn 2 to 5 btn 5 to 1 greater 1 Suitabiliy_TSLW1 Extreme Optimal 1 Duration1 irrelevant 1 up to 1mo up to 2mo up to 4mo up to 6mo up to 12mo Suitabiliy_Duration1 Extreme Optimal 1 Redgum_Forest Extreme Optimal 1 Delivering environmental water Scenario-based tools Optimisation-based tools

3 Identifying Habitats and Refugia: Classification IMAGE REMOVED CSIRO Cluster: Bond, Kennard, Ward

4 Ecological models for flow scenario and optimisation tools Where to target environmental water? Defining unique habitats and refugia Predicting ecological outcomes Ecological Response Models FF_last_ten_yrs (Low Floodplain) one in one one in two 1 one in five one in ten less one in ten Suitabiliy_FF1 Extreme Optimal 1 Time Since Last (Low_Floodplain) current up to 5y btn 5 to 1 btn 1 to 2 1 btn 2 to 5 btn 5 to 1 greater 1 Suitabiliy_TSLW1 Extreme Optimal 1 Duration1 irrelevant 1 up to 1mo up to 2mo up to 4mo up to 6mo up to 12mo Suitabiliy_Duration1 Extreme Optimal 1 Redgum_Forest Extreme Optimal 1 Delivering environmental water Scenario-based tools Optimisation-based tools

5 Predicting Ecological Outcomes of Environmental Water Scale Local or Landscape? Event or Regime? Species / communities / functional groupings Ecological response models for predicting ecological outcomes 1. Limits to Hydrological Alteration 2. Habitat suitability models 3. Population models 4. Biodiversity 5. Productivity Source of Images: CSIRO

6 2. Habitat Suitability Modelling Static representations of change Models are often static and probabilistic in nature, but can be spatially explicit Relate the geographical distribution of a species or communities to their environment or the condition of a species to their environment Based on hydrological habitat preferences: Flood frequency Duration of flow Timing of flow (seasonality) Inter-flood dry period Flood depth Defining preferences Can be some level of subjectivity in the process Increasing knowledge of important thresholds at a species level, but poor geographic spread Spatial habitat suitability modelling: Floodplain vegetation

7 Habitat Suitability Modelling Framework Environmental Water Requirements (e.g. Rogers and Ralph, 211 or Roberts and Marston, 211) Rate of flow fall Flood duration Flood timing Flood depth Inter-flood dry period Species responses to water regimes Habitat condition of a species Habitat condition of a functional group Source: Rogers, 29

8 FF_last_ten_yrs (Low Floodplain) one in one one in two one in five one in ten less one in ten 1 Time Since Last (Low_Floodplain) current up to 5y btn 5 to 1 btn 1 to 2 btn 2 to 5 btn 5 to 1 greater 1 1 irrelevant up to 1mo up to 2mo up to 4mo up to 6mo up to 12mo Duration1 1 Extreme Optimal Suitabiliy_FF1 1 Suitabiliy_TSLW1 Extreme Optimal 1 Suitabiliy_Duration1 Extreme Optimal 1 Extreme Optimal Redgum_Forest 1 Predicting change in condition of a given vegetation type for a hydrologic time series Showing predictions spatially

9 P (Vegetation State) Decadal Recurrence 1:5 Habitat Suitability through Time Low Floodplain - Eucalyptus camuldulensis Maintenance_met Recruitment_met 1 in 5 (right axis)

10 Population size Population / Biomass Population models Deterministic and temporal representations of change in a species Examples For a given hydrological regime population viability of waterbirds Such models require an extensive knowledge base but outputs can be readily interpreted Habitat suitability model linked to population dynamics : Waterbird breeding in the MDB Age-structured population model used to assess the frequency that breeding must occur to maintain populations of egrets and ibis Breeding every year 4 years in 5 3 years in 5 2 years in 5 Default parameters Time (years) To maintain populations of egrets and ibis, breeding is required at least once every year (Arthur, 211)

11 Breeding Frequency of Waterbirds Basin-scale: any event size (CSIRO, 212) Colonial nesting waterbirds breed during extended periods of flooding, where the size of the breeding event tends to be positively correlated with the area of floodplain inundated Some anecdotal evidence suggests that some populations of waterbirds may function at the Basin scale or perhaps even at the sub-basin scale (Reid et al., 29) Habitat suitability for waterbird breeding aggregated for nesting sites across the Basin. To maintain populations of ibis and egrets, breeding is required annually

12 Ecological models for flow scenario and optimisation tools Where to target environmental water? Defining unique habitats and refugia Predicting ecological outcomes Ecological Response Models FF_last_ten_yrs (Low Floodplain) one in one one in two 1 one in five one in ten less one in ten Suitabiliy_FF1 Extreme Optimal 1 Time Since Last (Low_Floodplain) current up to 5y btn 5 to 1 btn 1 to 2 1 btn 2 to 5 btn 5 to 1 greater 1 Suitabiliy_TSLW1 Extreme Optimal 1 Duration1 irrelevant 1 up to 1mo up to 2mo up to 4mo up to 6mo up to 12mo Suitabiliy_Duration1 Extreme Optimal 1 Redgum_Forest Extreme Optimal 1 Delivering environmental water Scenario-based tools Optimisation-based tools

13 Tools for Delivering Environmental Water Hydrologic time series Predict Ecological Response Hydrologic time series Ecological Water Requirements Generate Demand Scenario-based tools versus Optimisation-based tools

14 Integrating of Hydrology and Ecology

15 Ecologically-defined hydrological events Event 1 rate of fall depth = f(area) Event 2 timing inter-flood period duration

16 Scenario output: Prediction of suitability of habitat for a given species through time 16 5 Breeding habitat conditions for the Australian white ibis over the 114 year model period

17 Optimising Delivery of Environmental Water Environmental watering involves: a range of water products constraints and opportunities antecedent and forecast scenarios connectivity across scales A simplified river system model allows for multiple scenarios of river operation to be run rapidly, considering the complex decisionspace By integrating ecological water requirements as demands, optimisation tools for water delivery are being built Simplified MDB river system model, built in Source (Dutta et al.)

18 Risk states for optimisation Optimal: flow able to support the life cycle requirements Sub-optimal: flow promotes persistence Detrimental: high risk of loss Objective function: to keep each EWR as close to an optimal state as possible

19 What can the results of optimisation tell us? 1. How environmental water could be used in different types of years (wet, med, dry) 2. Solutions to complex problems: Multiple sites, multiple storages, many different requirements, alternative release strategies (piggy backing, translucent flows, etc.) 3. Use of ecological response models to evaluate environmental water requirements 4. Level of utilisation of environmental water holdings to optimise ecological outcomes and the role of delivery constraints 5. How best to access a combination of planned and held environmental water products to achieve an optimal outcome 6. Carry over options and trade scenarios Presentation title Presenter name Page 19

20 Tools for Delivering Environmental Water WHERE TO FROM HERE?

21 Some Ongoing Challenges Limited ecological knowledge for model development Ecological studies / data collection needs to be formulated based on a robust conceptual model (hypothesis-driven) Simplistic models for complex environments Need to improve representation of dynamics Need to improve representation of interactions Need to improve the representation of uncertainty Investment in predictive inundation models (predicting ecological response requires more than just flow at a gauge!) Lack of evaluation of models Testing of models against data should be an essential part of the model development process Pathways to adoption Still finding our way on how best to apply tools in decision-making contexts Not just a single use product: Adaptive management Adaptive models CSIRO, 28 Chesterfield, 1986

22 Acknowledgements: Tony Arthur Emily Barbour Alice Brown Andrew Freebain Baihua Fu Wendy Merritt Paul Rustomji Thank you CSIRO Land and Water Dr. Carmel Pollino Research Scientist t E carmel.pollino@csiro.au w WATER FOR A HEALTHY COUNTRY

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