Adapting to climate change: Towards a European Framework for Action Future research needs

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1 Adapting to climate change: Towards a European Framework for Action Future research needs Anastasios Kentarchos European Commission Directorate General for Research Directorate I - Environment Climate Change and Environmental Risks Unit Climate change and sustainable energy: the roles of universities of technology Conference Copenhagen Sep, 2009

2 Contents Definition & concepts Current knowledge Knowledge gaps - research needs FP7 and research on climate change impacts and adaptation Examples of current projects Conclusion

3 Adaptation is about: Building resilience into our system. Increase our ability to deal with current climate Reduce risks and costs related to future climate change Take advantage of new opportunities

4 IPCC definition of Adaptation Adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harms or exploits beneficial opportunities.. Types of adaptation: Anticipatory adaptation: takes place before climate change impacts are observed Autonomous (or Spontaneous) adaptation: does not constitute a conscious response to climate stimuli (e.g. triggered by ecological changes in natural systems or by market/welfare in human systems) Planned adaptation: result of deliberate policy action

5 why Adaptation is important Even the most stringent mitigation efforts cannot avoid further impacts of climate change in the next few decades (owing to the lag times of the earth-climate system) Adaptation is the only response available to natural and human systems for the climate change impacts that will occur over the next several decades before mitigation measures can have an effect Mitigation and adaptation are to be seen as a co-exercise

6 Adaptation vs. Mitigation Spatial scales of benefits ADAPTATION: primarily benefits at local scale MITIGATION: benefits felt globally although may vary across regions. Secondary benefits may also occur (e.g. air quality) Temporal scales of benefits ADAPTATION: from immediate to long term (depending the measure) MITIGATION: long term Synergies Example: planting trees close to urban areas = sequester carbon and reduce urban heat in summer period. Conflicts Example: energy intensive air conditioning installations to cope with higher temperatures

7 Current knowledge and research needs

8 IPCC-2007 WGII: key vulnerabilities in Europe (from EEA)

9 Potential Impacts of Climate Change Climate Change Scenarios Atmosphere / cryosphere / sea Greenhouse gases concentration Temperature (means & extremes) Precipitation (means & extremes) Storms Sea level rise Permafrost/ice melting Ground level ozone Ecosystem conditions and supporting services Species phenology Species distribution Forest fires Water quality Floods Soil degradation Water scarcity droughts Economic impacts Infrastructures and physical capital (Damages, Losses) Production and Consumption (Processes, consumer behaviour, Growth potential, Variability/disruptions activity) Employment Impact on Ecosystem services Provisioning (Food, Freshwater, Wood/fiber, Fuel) Regulating (Climate, Flood, Diseases, Water purification) Cultural Social Impacts Health (Mortality, Morbidity, Labour productivity) Distributive impacts (Social groups, Regions) Resource conflicts Migrations Social fabric Governance Source: Environment DG based on (EEA, 2008), OECD 2008 and TEEB. Potential impacts are all impacts that may occur given a projected change in climate, without considering adaptation.

10 Figure 3: Key impacts as a function of increasing global average temperature change 1 Key global impacts as a function of global average warming EU 2 C objective 1Above levels. To express the change relative to the period , IPCC WG II adds 0.5 degrees C

11 White Paper on Adaptation A new agenda for public policy on Climate Change Adaptation at EU level White Paper adopted on 1/4/2009 Commission staff working documents accompanying the White Paper: Impact Assessment and executive summary SEC(2009) Adapting to Climate Change: the Challenge for European Agriculture and Rural Areas SEC(2009)417 Human, Animal and Plant Health Impacts of Climate Change SEC(2009)416 Climate Change and Water, Coasts and Marine Issues SEC(2009) 386

12 Adaptation policy is on-going Large difference in progress among the Member States Some are already well advanced in their thinking on adaptation Others still at the phase of identifying the problem Initiatives and growing demand at regional and local level Potential for action at EU level: Provide a consistent analytical framework Help identify cross-cutting issues Promote the exchange of best practices

13 Need for taking action at EU level Many climate change impacts AND adaptation measures have a cross-border dimension E.g. forest fires, effects on migratory species, infectious deceases, floods, etc. Need to identify upstream adaptation measures Climate impacts and adaptation will affect single market and common policies. Transport, energy networks, forestry, agriculture, water, biodiversity, fisheries, etc. Climate change vulnerabilities and adaptation trigger a new paradigm for solidarity Impact on future cohesion policy, social agenda, etc. EU spending programmes could complement the resources spent by the Member States for adaptation. Potential economies of scale for capacity building, research, information and data gathering, knowledge transfer, etc.

14 EU ADAPTATION FRAMEWORK Phase 1: PILLARS Working in Partnership with EU, national, regional and local authorities PILLAR I PILLAR II PILLAR III PILLAR IV Strengthen the Knowledge/ Evidence Base Mainstream climate Adaptation into key policy areas Employ a combination of policy instruments Advance work internationally on Adaptation

15 Current knowledge about adaptation Some adaptation is occurring already, but on a very limited basis (e.g. use of artificial snow in the Alps, government responses to heat-waves, coastal defences in Netherlands/Maldives, crop diversification to some regions). Adaptation measures are seldom undertaken in response to climate change alone (e.g. embedded within broader initiatives such as water resource planning or risk reduction strategies). Many adaptations can be implemented at low cost, but comprehensive estimates of adaptation costs and benefits are lacking Adaptive capacity is uneven across and within societies (e.g. Hurricane Katrina, New Orleans or Paris heat-wave 2003) The array to potential adaptive responses available to human societies is large ranging from purely technological (sea defences) to behavioural (food and recreational choices). We start to understand better the options, barriers and limits. Some standardisation of scenarios of future climate change allowed better comparison of impacts between sectors and regions. Opportunities for synergies between adaptation and mitigation exist in some sectors (agriculture, forestry, urban infrastructure) and increase cost-effectiveness of actions and make more attractive to decision makers and potential funders.

16 knowledge gaps and research needs I Identify and assess impacts under different assumptions about future development paths - wide range of scenarios describing how societies, technology, governance and economies will evolve in the future (global and regional scale). - better predictions of the magnitude and nature of future changes especially at regional scales and with respect to precipitation changes, extreme events, hydrological and carbon cycle, and abrupt changes. Observation, monitoring and attribution - long-term, high quality field studies are needed to evaluate observed impacts on ecosystems and human activities, identify hot spots, assess vulnerabilities and attribution of trends to climate change.

17 knowledge gaps and research needs II Quantification of the costs of adaptation by region and sector (including costs of action vs. cost of inaction) - how to measure impacts, metrics to be used, uncertainties in estimation - literature is limited and fragmented and focuses mostly on sea level rise and agriculture - costs are most often focusing on OECD countries with very few studies on developing countries. - need to understand better barriers and limits of adaptation (difficult due to institutional, financial, political constraints and specific geographical risk factors). Comprehensive and systematic analysis of existing adaptation strategies and measures of EU Member States -assess and analyse barriers and constraints that are specific of local and sectoral contexts and the means to overcome them. Analysis of best practices.

18 knowledge gaps and research needs III Research ways to enable and stimulate activities aiming to create new opportunities for innovation in the field of adaptation to climate change - in the areas of urban life, health, electricity, transport, landscape - anticipate market failures to adaptation - explore synergies with mitigation Role of financial flows in the insurance sector with special emphasis on weather related insurance schemes and practices and evaluation of the vulnerabilities of key players in the sector. Understand synergies between adaptive capacity and sustainable development and identify/determine the factors which contribute to this synergy.

19 FP7: Climate research with global scope FP7 is a research program open to the world, with in total 39 States contributing Opening of the FP : 1. FP7 is open to participation of all countries of the world 2. Funding of ICPC countries Two approaches: 1. Specific international co-operation actions (SICA) dedicated to developing countries and emerging economies 2. INCO leveraging/supporting instruments International agreements 1. Association to the FP 2. S&T cooperation agreements *International Co-operation Partner Country (ICPC) Contributing states: 1 Albania 2 Austria 3 Belgium 4 Bosnia & Herzegovina 5 Bulgaria 6 Croatia 7 Cyprus 8 Czech Republic 9 Denmark 10 Estonia 11 Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia 12 Finland 13 France 14 Germany 15 Greece 16 Hungary 17 Iceland 18 Ireland 19 Israel 20 Italy 21 Latvia 22 Liechtenstein 23 Lithuania 24 Luxembourg 25 Malta 26 Montenegro 27 Netherlands 28 Norway 29 Poland 30 Portugal 31 Romania 32 Serbia 33 Slovakia 34 Slovenia 34 Spain 36 Sweden 37 Switzerland 38 Turkey 39 United Kingdom

20 Framework Programmes and climate change research Since 2003, more than 139 projects representing an overall budget of 570 M of EC financial support contributed to the understanding of the climate system and adapting to change in climate processes and their modelling, to the assessment of climate change impacts and the costs of response measures. These research activities are complemented by other projects funded by the Framework Programme, notably in the areas of energy and transport, which contribute to the identification and development of mitigation options. A publication providing an overview of climate change research projects funded under the FP

21 Establishing links with science-users POLICY DEVELOPMENT DESIGN OF POLICY RESEARCH, SCIENTIFIC PROGRESS, POLICY INTEGRATION POLICY IMPLEMENTATION POLICY REVIEW

22 Examples of Climate related themes published in the FP7 calls of proposals ( ) Stability of the Thermohaline Circulation THOR Air quality and climate in megacities: CITYZEN MEGAPOLI Climate Change impacts & adaptation strategies in water policies CLIMATEWATER Sea-Level Rise Ice2Sea Full costs of climate change CLIMATECOST Climate variability & terrestrial carbon cycle - CARBO-Extreme Climate change integrated assessment methodology for cross- sectoral vulnerability and adaptation in Europe Climate induced changes in water resources in southern Europe Ocean acidification EPOCA Risks of novel options to limit climate change - IMPLICC Process-oriented evaluation of Earth System Models Flood resilience in urban areas Climate-chemistry interactions in the stratosphere Shiva New components in Earth System modelling COMBINE Quantification and attribution of annual-to-decadal changes of carbon and GHG budgets Climate change impacts on mountain regions ACQWA Impacts of climate policies on land use and ecosystems CCTAME Climate dynamics and abrupt changes analysis of the palaeo-record

23 Examples of themes focussing different areas of the world, published in FP7 calls Climate change impacts in the Parana-Plata river basin CLARIS LPB Water resources in Northern India, and adaptation strategies HighNoon Addressing deforestation in tropical areas REDD-ALERT Climate Change impacts on and thresholds of Arctic ocean ecosystems ATP Analysis of emerging economies in a post- Kyoto regime POEM Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa Adaptation strategies in post-2012 climate initiatives in developing countries

24 Example 1 Future climate projections The COMBINE Project Objectives Advancing Earth System Models (ESMs) for reduced uncertainty in the prediction of climate and climate change in the next decades. Scientific advances Including key physical and biogeochemical processes to model more accurately the forcing mechanisms and the feedbacks Incorporate carbon and nitrogen cycle, aerosols coupled to cloud microphysics and chemistry, proper stratospheric dynamics and increased resolution, ice sheets and permafrost Improving initialisation techniques to make the best possible use of observation based analyses of ocean and ice to benefit from the predictability of the climate system in predictions of the climate of the next few decades. 22 partners EC contribution 8m

25 First ever coupled downscaling of global scenarios for the Arctic Example 2 climate change impacts in the Arctic DAMOCLES: Understanding Climate Change in the Arctic by observing and modelling Global model (GCM) 1 Downscaling of GCM 1 Global model (GCM) 2 Downscaling of GCM 2 Arctic summer sea ice extent in global and downscaling models. Different regionalization indicate uncertainty due to Arctic variability; rapid change events occur in the regional model Arctic climate scenario simulations depend on model details Impact/mitigation/adaptation studies need to take uncertainty due to different process descriptions into account Coupled processes need further exploration 46 partners, EC contribution of 16.5 M

26 Example 3 climate change impacts on water The WATCH Integrated Project Analyse and describe the current global water cycle Feedbacks in the climate hydrological system WB5 Past, present and future population, LUCC and water demand WB2 Extremes and scales of hydrological events WB4 Evaluate how the global water cycle and its extremes respond to future drivers of global change 20 th Century Global water cycle WB1 Evaluate feedbacks in the coupled system as they affect the global water cycle 21 st Century Global water cycle WB3 Evaluate the uncertainties in the predictions Develop a modelling and data framework to assess the future vulnerability of water as a resource 25 partners, EC contribution of 10 M Assessing the vulnerability of water resources WB6 Management, training and dissemination WB7 WATCH

27 Example 4: exteme events and health The MICRODIS project: integrated health, social and economic impacts of extreme events Main Project Objectives: strengthen the scientific and empirical foundation on the relationship between extreme events and their health, social and economic impacts develop and integrate knowledge, concepts, methods, tools and databases towards a common global approach improve human resources and coping capacity in Asia and Europe thou training and knowledge sharing 17 partners, 5 M (international partners from India, Vietnam, Philippines)

28 Example 5 Adaptation/mitigation ADAM: Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies: Supporting European Climate Policy Assessment of the extent to which existing climate policies can achieve a socially and economically tolerable transition to a world with a global climate no warmer than 2 C above pre-industrial levels Develop a quantitative knowledge base of Europe s vulnerability to climate change Assess social, economic and technical factors that influence Europe s adaptive capacity Development of a portfolio of longer-term policy options that could contribute to the EU s 2 C target and targets for adaptation; 26 partners, EC contribution of 12.9 M (International partners: China, India

29 Example 6 Adaptation/mitigation Full Costs of Climate Change The objectives are to advance knowledge on the full economic costs of climate change: To identify and develop consistent climate change and socioeconomic scenarios, including mitigation scenarios; To quantify the costs of inaction for these scenarios, value the costs and benefits of adaptation, and the residual costs of climate change after adaptation; To asses the physical effects and economic damages of major catastrophic events and major socially contingent effects. To update the mitigation costs of GHG emission reductions for medium and long-term reduction targets/stabilisation goals. To quantify the ancillary air quality benefits of mitigation in Europe and major negotiator countries. Policy relevant output, including information on physical effects and economic values, and undertake analysis of policy scenarios. 21 partners, EC contribution of 3.5 M (International partners: China, India)

30 Example 7 -Adaptation/mitigation ADAGIO: (Adaptation of Agriculture in European Regions at Environmental Risk under Climate Change) Specific and Support Action with the aim to : Improve awareness and user-orientation of adaptation strategies Improve local representation and bring together regional advisers, farmers organisations, experts, council advisers) Special emphasis on Southers and central/east Europe 21 partners, EC contribution of 0.5 M

31 Example 8 Adaptation/mitigation MOTIVE - Models for Adaptive Forest Management the objective of the project is provide insights, data and tools to improve policymaking and adaptive forest resource management in the face of rapidly changing climatic and land-use conditions. develop and evaluate management strategies that are able to adapt forest management practices to changing environmental conditions. 20 partners, EC contribution of 7 M

32 John Holdren President of the American Association for the Advancement of Science we basically have 3 choices: mitigation, adaptation and suffering We are going to do some of each.the question is what the mix is going to be. The more mitigation we do, the less adaptation will be required, and the less suffering there will be

33 A daptation: a com m on challenge a com m on challenge w ith differentiated solutions.

34 Thank you very much for your attention More info on