Carbon Capture and Sequestration as a Means for Managing Carbon Dioxide Emissions

Transcription

1 Carbon Capture and Sequestration as a Means for Managing Carbon Dioxide Emissions February 5, 2004 JJ Dooley Joint Global Change Research Institute Battelle

2 Administration Global Warming Commitments Administration Position Deployment of Best Available Technologies and Practices Across the US Short-term commitment: Reduce emissions/gdp by 18% by Long-term commitment: Requires Tremendous Breakthroughs in the Cost and Performance of a Portfolio of Technologies: I reaffirm America's commitment to the United Nations Framework Convention and it's central goal, to stabilize atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations at a level that will prevent dangerous human interference with the climate. President George W. Bush Advanced Coal Sequestration Advanced Gas Hydrogen Energy Efficiency Nuclear Renewables 2

3 Carbon Management What s the right goal? The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change has as its ultimate objective... stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Such a level should be achieved within a time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner. Article 2 (UNFCCC, 1992) Three Key Elements: Stabilizing concentrations not emission levels Prevent danger at some unspecified level Allow economic development to proceed 3

4 Commitment to Stabilization Would Requires Closing TWO Technology Gaps Business-As-Usual Technology Gap 1300 GT C 480 GT C Stabilization Technology Gap 4

5 A gigaton is The combined weight of 77% of the earth s population if we all weighed 410 lbs 2740 Empire State Buildings Aaron Gibson (#78) offensive tackle Chicago Bears 142,857,142 African elephants 5

6 A Gigaton of Carbon Emission Mitigation Per Year Is Technology 1 Gigaton Carbon / year (1 billion tons C / year) Major Issues Near-zero Emitting Coal Plants 1,000 near zero-emission 500-MW coal units Economic Viability, Regulatory Approval, Social Acceptance (sequestration) Sequestration Nuclear Efficiency Wind 3,700 sequestration sites the size of Norway's Sliepner project (0.27 Mt C/yr) 500 new 1GW nuclear plants 1 billion cars operating at 40 mpg instead of 20 mpg 150 x current US capacity Economic Viability, Regulatory Approval, Social Acceptance Economic & Social Viability, Proliferation Concerns Point of Diminishing Return is Reached Unless Lifestyle Change Geographic Limitations, Storage Would need to double the number of nuclear power plants currently in operation Twice as many cars currently on the planet Solar Biomass fuels from plantations Storage in new forest 10,000 x current US solar PV generation Convert a barren area >15 times the size of Iowa's farmland to biomass Convert a barren area >40 times the size of Iowa's farmland to biomass Geographic Limitations, Storage Land-Use Changes and Biotech Concerns Land-Use Changes Nearly six times the acreages devoted to corn production in entire USA Adapted from Socolow (2003). 6

7 A Broad Portfolio of Energy and Carbon Management Technologies Will Be Required 1300 GT C 480 GT C Assumed Advances In Fossil Fuels Energy intensity Nuclear Renewables Gap technologies Carbon capture & disposal Adv. fossil H2 and Adv. Transportation Biotechnologies Soils, Bioenergy, adv. Biological energy 7

8 Take Home Points Addressing climate change will take continued progress on traditional energy R&D and carbon management R&D. Key carbon management technologies that have to be ready to be deployed by 2020 include: Commercial Biomass Soil Carbon Sequestration Geologic Carbon Sequestration Advanced Gasification Fuel Cells R&D programs need to be designed to lay the ground work for massive deployment. Near term field demonstrations need to be designed with this in mind. 8

9 CCS technologies would need to be deployed on a massive scale around the globe. Because of the very long lifetimes of capital equipment in the energy sector, CCS deployment could start in the relatively near future. The Role of CCS Carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) could be one of the most important levers we have to address climate change as it is synergistic with Large fossil fuel resource in the US and other key nations Existing capital stock of power plants The emergence of a hydrogen transportation system Over the course of the century, the deployment and use of CCS systems could account for as much as 30% of all cost effective climate mitigation beyond business as usual technology improvements and if widely deployed could reduce the cost of stabilization by one third or more. Millions of Tonnes of Carbon per year 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 soil carbon sequestration sequestration from fossil power generation sequestration from synfuels production sequestration from H2 production other nuclear solar biomass 550 ppmv emissions

10 Geologic CO 2 Storage 1. Deep saline formations 2. Oil & gas reservoirs 3. Unmined coal beds (IEA Greenhouse R&D Programme, 2001) 10

11 Projections of Global Cumulative CCS Deployment GtC possible global demand for CO 2 storage Demand for CO 2 storage higher the more stringent the emissions mitigation regime CCS deployment likely to begin in niche markets Majority of CCS deployment likely to come in the second half of century and outside of the present day OECD Gigatons of Carbon Global Cumulative Amount of Carbon Stored (Dooley and Wise, 2003) WRE Static Disposal Tech 650 Disposal Innovation WRE Static Disposal Tech 550 Disposal Innovation WRE Disposal Innovation Estimates of Global Carbon Storage Reservoirs (Herzog et al. 1997) Reservoir Type Deep Ocean Deep Saline Formations Depleted Gas Reservoirs Depleted Oil Reservoirs Low (GtC) 1, High (GtC) 27,000 2,

12 Large US and Canadian CO 2 Point Sources ( Large >= 100+ kt CO 2 ) 1185 electric power plants 543 coal 526 gas 95 oil 21 biomass 25 ammonia refineries 124 cement kilns 47 ethanol production plants 43 ethylene plants 8 ethylene oxide plants 447 natural gas processing facilities 40 hydrogen production facilities 53 iron & steel foundries 9 oil sands production areas 154 petroleum refineries 12

13 Potential CO 2 Sequestered by NERC Region 13

14 (Preliminary) US Geologic CO 2 Reservoir Capacities 916 GtC storage capacity identified in 298 U.S. formations: 5 GtC storage capacity in Depleted Gas Basins 16 GtC storage capacity in Coal Basins 79 GtC storage capacity in Depleted Oil Plays 815 GtC storage capacity in Deep Saline Formations 14

15 CCS Development and Deployment: Laboratory Experiments Are Not Enough Scientist agree that some aspects of carbon sequestration can only be understood through experiments done at a reasonable scale. Example of realistic scale : 1 million tons of CO 2 per year 5-10 years injection and monitoring 5-10 years post injection monitoring The bottom line is that if we are going to learn whether this technology will work we must begin field experiments. 15

16 An Example Timeline for a Meaningfully Scaled CCS Field Experiment Build team to carry out: Detailed engineering design Geologic characterization Permitting Stakeholder involvement Data collection, analysis, dissemination Start of CCS Project Period of Construction Principal Operations: Capture and Storage Post-Injection Monitoring

17 The US Will Need a Portfolio of Large CCS Field Experiments Because the US Will Need a Broad and Robust Portfolio of CCS Options to Deploy 1000 s of Potential Industrial and Power Plant Users 100 s of Potential Geologic Storage Reservoirs Decades of Demand on These Finite Reservoirs There s no CCS silver bullet. 17

18 International Collaboration for CCS The capital and time requirements for CCS field tests are so formidable that no one country is likely capable of doing all the research needed within their own borders. Therefore, explicit attention must be given to meaningful international collaboration. Can we conceive of meaningful de minimus criteria that would link projects that are not only in different countries but also injecting into different geologic media? What needs to happen today to help ensure that regulators, NGO s and other actors will accept these international results as equivalent to national data? This goes far beyond participating in conferences and high level policy dialogues. Deep Saline-Filled Sedimentary Formations Deep Unmineable Coal Seams 18

19 Concluding Thoughts The viability of CCS centers on proving out the storage side of the technology and determining how storage will be measured, monitored and verified. The electric power sector is really the large scale mitigation opportunity for this class of technologies in the US. For CCS to make a significant contribution to reducing CO 2 emissions, hundreds and not a dozen of CCS systems must eventually be deployed. As important as FutureGen is to the future of CCS, it is only one of many large field experiments that needs to go forward now. Planned CCS field experiments need to explicitly focus on: Laying down the foundations for CCS-specific, science-based operational rules and technical standards Communicating with the public about the potential use and benefits of CCS There is a significant benefit to knowing how CCS systems will be used and regulated and what supporting infrastructures are needed now rather than in

20 Summary The Carbon Management Technology Challenge is far greater than we often think the economic costs of a poorly designed carbon management strategy are monumental energy R&D is anemic creative incentives for the development and deployment of key carbon management technologies are lacking There are many strategies for managing the potential risks posed by climate change. It is collectively up to us to put the right strategy on the table. 20