Global Participation & Technology Strategies

Transcription

1 Climate Change and Sustainable Global Participation & Technology Strategies Jae Edmonds Expert Meeting on and Sustainable Seoul, Korea November

2 Thanks to The Korea Energy Economics Institute (KEEI) and the Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES, Japan) Thanks also to the U.S. DOE, Office of Science, Integrated Assessment Program, and to the EPRI Integrated Assessment Program for long-term research support. 2

3 Technology and Climate Examples of Technology Systems That Could Make A Difference Carbon Capture & Disposal Hydrogen & Transportation Biotechnology Background 3

4 Background 4

5 background 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on GOAL stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. (Article 2) 5

6 background Four types of policy responses Emissions mitigation Adaptation Improvement in scientific understanding Technology development 6

7 background 7

8 background Reference case technology assumptions population and economic growth will generate increased demands for energy services Stabilization pathway where today s technology will take us solar nuclear efficient fossil electric advanced transportation end use efficiency conventional biomass where more advanced versions of current technologies will take us path we need to be on to stabilize atmospheric co 2 8

9 Hoffert et al.,. Science, provided a menu of technology opportunities to stabilize the concentration of CO 2. 9

10 Technology 10

11 Today s s Discussion Examples of Advanced Technologies That Could Make A Difference Carbon Capture & Disposal (CC&D) Hydrogen & Transportation Biotechnology 11

12 cc&d Carbon capture already exists. Sleipner, North Sea AES Warrior Run, Cumberland, USA 12

13 cc&d Cumulative Carbon Capture 350 MiniCAM B2 550 MiniCAM B2 AT H2 Prod Synfuel H2 Prod Synfuel 200 Elec 200 Elec where to put 300 Billion Tons of Carbon? 13

14 Geologic Disposal 1. Deep saline formations 2. Oil & gas reservoirs 3. Unmined coal beds (IEA Greenhouse R&D Programme, 2001) 14

15 Geologic Disposal cc&d There are other reservoirs that need to be explored Ex situ Mineralization 15

16 cc&d Global Carbon Storage Reservoirs Carbon Storage Reservoir Range (PgC) Deep Saline Reservoirs 87 to 2,727 Depleted Gas Reservoirs 136 to 300 Depleted Oil Reservoirs 41 to 191 Unminable Coal >20 Basalt Formations >1,000 Deep Ocean 1,391 to 27,000 Source: Herzog et al. (1997), Freund and Ormerod (1997), PNNL (2001). 16

17 Carbon is captured and stored locally. cc&d 17

18 Loss Aggregate Losses From 1% Annual Release Rate MiniCA M B MiniCAM B2 AT 550 Loss cc&d WRE Year 2100 Emissions (PgC/Year) WRE 450 WRE 550 WRE WRE

19 cc&d Key Issues Macro-scale Losses 1% is a BIG number! Local Losses A Million Tonnes of CO 2 matters if its at your house. Monitoring & Verification Loom Large. General dispersion in oceans probably has high loss rates. 19

20 Today s s Discussion Examples of Advanced Technologies That Could Make A Difference Carbon Capture & Disposal Hydrogen & Transportation (H2) Biotechnology 20

21 h2 Transport Emissions Are All About Technology 1990 Fuel is 9% of total passenger transport cost Fuel is 4% of total passenger transport cost with $200/ton carbon value. 21

22 Fuel Cells for the H 2 economy. h2 Fuel Fuel Input CH CH 4 4 Coal Coal Oil Oil Biomass Electricity Direct Direct Bioconversion CO CO CO 2 2 H 2 Electricity, Heat Out Out & H 2 O 2 22

23 h2 Hydrogen could provide stationary heat and power, then penetrates the transportation sector. MiniCAM B2 Advanced Technology MiniCAM B2 550 Advanced Technology GenerationH2Fcell TransportH2 IndustriesH2 BuildingsH GenerationH2Fcell TransportH2 IndustriesH2 BuildingsH2 EJ/yr EJ/yr H 2 Use Exajoules/year 23

24 h2 Even with rapid technology improvement, significant market penetration is decades in the future. MiniCAM B2 Advanced Technology MiniCAM B2 550 Advanced Technology GenerationH2Fcell TransportH2 IndustriesH2 BuildingsH GenerationH2Fcell TransportH2 IndustriesH2 BuildingsH2 EJ/yr EJ/yr H 2 Use Exajoules/year 24

25 Today s s Discussion Examples of Advanced Technologies That Could Make A Difference Carbon Capture & Disposal Hydrogen & Transportation Biotechnology 25

26 Biotechnology modern commercial biomass energy biotech Bio Fuels Gas Solids e.g. Switchgrass 02E6A08F3A385394C1256B5A0028FFFF bio-hydrogen Biorefining ens.lycos.com/ens/aug2001/ 2001L html 26

27 Exajoules per Year 1,300 1,200 1,100 1, Stabilization implies significant growth in modern commercial biomass. MiniCAM B2 Reference MiniCAM B2 1.5% Ag Productivity Wind Solar Nuclear Hydro Biomass Coal Gas Oil Primary Energy (EJ/year) Exajoules per Year 1,300 1,200 1,100 1, MiniCAM B2 550 Stabilization MiniCAM B % Ag Productivity Carbon Capture & Disposal Wind Solar Nuclear Hydro Biomass Coal Gas Oil biotech

28 biotech Stabilization could dramatically change land use. 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% MiniCAM B2 Reference MiniCAM B2 1.5% Ag Productivity Unmgd Forest Pasture Crops BioLand % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% MiniCAM B2 550 Stabilization MiniCAM B % Ag Productivity Carbon Capture & Disposal Unmgd Forest Pasture Crops BioLand

29 biotech Increasing agricultural 8,000 productivity 6,000 dramatically 4,000 2,000 reduces 0 land-use -2,000 emissions. -4,000 Millions of tons of carbon per year 12,000 10, MiniCAM B % Ag Productivity CC&D MiniCAM B % Ag Productivity CC&D MiniCAM B % Ag Productivity CC&D 29

30 Technology & Policy 30

31 technology & policy Technology alone may not stabilize CO 2 concentrations. TgC per Year 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 MiniCAM B2 MiniCAM B2 AT MiniCAM B2 550 MiniCAM B2 AT

32 technology & policy However, technology can dramatically lower the cost of stabilizing CO 2 concentrations. $ US$ per Tonne C $225 $200 $175 $150 $125 $100 $75 $50 $25 Reference B2 Technology 550 ppmv Stabilization Advanced B2 Technology 550 ppmv Stabilization $ Carbon value (1990$/tonC) 32

33 Final Thoughts Technology Performance Is Critical The development and deployment of cost-effective advanced energy technologies could cut costs of stabilizing CO 2 concentrations by more than half. While advanced technology development holds great promise, these technologies are not yet significant components of the global energy system. Technology Alone May or May NOT Stabilize CO 2 Concentrations Emissions may rise with enhanced technology. To stabilize CO 2 concentrations, cumulative emissions must be limited. 33