Nancy Rabalais Louisiana Universities Marine Consortium
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1 Eutrophication, Coastal Hypoxia, Carbon & Climate Nancy Rabalais Louisiana Universities Marine Consortium
2 Charismatically stressed and dead benthic fauna Downing 2002 Significant fisheries resources at risk Altered migration Reduced habitat Loss of biomass Changes in food resources Susceptibility of early life stages Growth & reproduction
3 No trawlable fish, shrimp, crabs Hypoxia = Dissolved O 2 < 2 mg/l (=2 ppm) Shrim mp (kg h -1 ) 4 3 ) Finfi ish (kg h Bottom D.O. (mg/l) 10 Bottom D.O. (mg/l) Leming and Stuntz 1984
4 Global N Budget: ~1860 (Tg N/yr) NO y N 2 NH x N Fixation, natural N Fixation, human N Transfer N Deposition Galloway and Cowling 2002
5 Global N Budget: Present (Tg N/yr) NO y N 2 NH 3 N Fixation, natural N Fixation, human N Transfer N Deposition Galloway and Cowling 2002
6 Don t forget phosphorus! Terrestrial Phosphorus Fluxes (Tg/yr) Pre- Industrial Current Bennett et al., 2001
7 Nutrients, Increased Growth, Low Oxygen Time Magazine
8 Nutrients, Increased Growth, Low Oxygen 50% C * (Turner et al. 2005)
9 Global pattern in the development of coastal hypoxia. Black lines represent continental shelf areas threatened with hypoxia from expansion of OMZ and upwelling. Rabalais et al. 2010; modified from Díaz and Rosenberg 2008 and Levin et al
10 Rabalais et al. 2010
11 A global epidemic Rabalais et al. 2010; modified from Díaz and Rosenberg 2008
12 Rabalais et al. 2010
13 Jan-Mar 1993 November 2006 Conley et al., 2009
14 Reduce Nutrients, Reduce Hypoxia Northwestern t Shelf Black Sea Hypoxic Area Up to 40, km 2 Currently, non-existent or minimal Zaitsev 1992 N and P Loads Correspond to Fertilizer Use Mee 2006
15 Goolsby et al. 1999, Rabalais % 58% 18% 21% [w & w 2.4%]
16 Mississippi River Atchafalaya River New Orleans Hypoxic Area * Effects are more far reaching than suspended sediment plume, esp. N & somewhat P dominant wind direction
17 Predicting Hypoxia in summer (nitrate flux in May, year) Turner et al. 2006
18 25,000 Area of Mid Summer Bottom Water Hypoxia (Dissolved Oxygen < 2.0 mg/l) h h are kilom meters) 20,000 15,000? h Area (squ 10,000 5,000 d h? 0 d n.d. Data source: N.N. Rabalais, Louisiana Universities Marine Consortium, R.E. Turner, Louisiana State University Funded by: NOAA, Center for Sponsored Coastal Ocean Research
19 Bottom-water Dissolved Oxygen, July, 2007 Bottom-water Dissolved Oxygen, July, 2008
20 Data source: N.N. Rabalais, Louisiana Universities Marine Consortium, R.E. Turner, Louisiana State University Funded by: NOAA, Center for Sponsored Coastal Ocean Research A relative strong east velocity (8.7 cm/s) for the 6.3 d survey Over twice that of 2008 Surface Velocity Vectors along the Ship Track
21 Oxygen content 2 m above the bottom during August-September in the northern Adriatic Sea from 1911 to 1984 for the periods indicated. Surface water oxygen content increased in the summer period, and Secchi disk depth during April-May decreased dramatically in 1966 and in the period. Statistical trends for the bottom water oxygen (shown), surface water oxygen and Secchi disk depth were all significant at P = Redrawn from Justić (1991) with permission.
22 They are increasing. 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 Symptoms of Eutrophication Developed Countries Developing Countries , Humans, millions Fertilizer, Tg N Legumes/Rice, Tg N NOx emissions, Tg N (modified by N. Rabalais; Galloway and Cowling 2002; Boesch 2002)
23 Emerging Problems East China Sea 14,000 km 2 Annual Hypoxia Li and Daler 2004 Increases in Harmful Algal Blooms ~ Atmospheric N Deposition in East China Sea Nitrate-N concentration Datong Station 33 Rapid change in nutrients shifted 20 yr compared to developed countries
24 Our rivers are too large to have nutrient t problems and dead d zones Land-Ocean Interactions in the Coastal Zone (LOICZ/IGBP) Open Science Meeting, Bahia Blanca, Argentina, November 1999
25 Dead Zone Oregon/Washington U. S. Pacific Northwest
26 Fig. 9. Near-bottom oxygen concentration (mg L -1 ) measured during the 2004 (southern and northern Gulf of St. Lawrence) and 2005 (only the northern part of the Gulf of St. Lawrence) fish stock assessment surveys. Modified from data published in Gilbert et al., 2007). Used with permission from Société Provancher.
27 300% increase in N load 80% due to NO 3- concentration 20% due to discharge DISCHARGE TN Nitrate TP Ortho-P Silicate Turner et al. 2007
28 More Nutrients >>> More Phytoplankton >>> More Carbon Reaches the Bottom >>> More Oxygen Consumed >>> More Hypoxia Verified by Paleoindicators Turner et al Photo: N. Rabalais, LUMCON
29 2000 del 13 C Stable Isotopes Marine Pb-210 Date Organic Carbon Accumulation Percentage 16 Quinqueloculina li Year (AD)
30 The Future Climate Change Biofuels Increased Population Increased Agribusiness Increased Atmospheric Deposition
31 Anthropogenic activities Climate variability climate change Reactive N (mostly +) Hydrologic cycle (+) (-) Sea level rise (+) Water temperature (mostly +) Winds Nutrient loads Biological responses (+) (-) (Metabolic rates mostly +) Nutrient-enhanced (Primary production +) productivity (Respiration +) Physical environment (Stratification tifi ti +) (Oxygen saturation -) (Current shifts) (Tropical storms) Vertical carbon flux Sedimentary carbon and nutrient t pools Harmful & noxious algal blooms Bottom-water hypoxia Rabalais et al. 2010
32 Nancy Thanks to all contributors and funding agencies
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