The Growth in Electricity Demand in U.S. Households, : Implications for Carbon Emissions

Transcription

1 The Growth in Electricity Demand in U.S. Households, : Implications for Carbon Emissions Behjat Hojjati, PhD Stephanie J. Battles Energy Information Administration 25th Annual IAEE International Conference Denver September 18-21, 05

2 Disclaimer The opinions and conclusions expressed herein are solely those of the authors and should not be construed as representing the opinions or policy of the Energy Information Administration, the U.S. Department of Energy, or any agency of the United States Government.

3 Overview Introduction Trends in Electricity Consumption, Growth in Appliances and Electrical Equipment Growth in Consumption by End Use Factors Affecting Electricity Consumption Implications for Carbon Emissions Growth in Carbon Emissions, Absolute Numbers Carbon-Intensity Indicators Conclusions

4 Data Used: Residential Energy Consumption Survey National Survey Approximately 5, 000 Household Personal Interviews - Household and Housing Unit Data Rental Survey Suppliers Survey End Use Estimation

5 Sector Shares of Total Energy Consumption, 04 Transportation 28% Residential 21% Commercial 18% Industrial 33% Source: Energy Information Administration, 04 Annual Energy Review.

6 Energy Consumption, Index (1981=100) Total Primary Energy Primary Electricity Source: Energy Information Administration, Residential Energy Consumption Surveys.

7 Percent Change in Primary Electricity Demand in the U.S US Northeast Midwest South West Percent Change Primary Electricity Demand per Household Total Primary Electricity Demand Households Using Electricity Source: Energy Information Administration, Residential Energy Consumption Surveys.

8 Distribution of Number of Households and Residential Electricity Consumption, by Census Regions, 01 Number of Households Electricity Consumption 22% 19% 17% 14% 21% 23% 36% 49% Northeast Midwest South West Source: Energy Information Administration, Residential Energy Consumption Survey.

9 Percent of Total Electricity Consumption in U.S. Housing Units, 01 14% 16% 9% 43% Appliances Lighting Space Heating Water Heating Space Cooling Refrigerators 10% 8% Sources: Energy Information Administration, Residential Energy Consumption Surveys.

10 Growth of Electrical Equipment and Appliances, (Percent of Households) Refrigerator (One) Refrigerator (two or More) Central air Conditioning Room Air Conditioning Water Heating Main Space Heating Color Television Black and White Television NA NA Clothes Dryer Freezer Microwave Oven Dishwasher Personal Computer NA NA NA NA Source: Energy Information Administration, Residential Energy Consumption Surveys.

11 Household Appliances Used in U.S. Housing Units in 01 that were Rare or Non-Existent in 1981 Percent of Housing Units Cordless Telephone 53 Cell Phone 61 Telephone Answering Machine 90 VCR/DVD 34 Large-screen Television 55 Rechargeable Tools Sources: Energy Information Administration, Residential Energy Consumption Surveys.

12 More Household Appliances Used in U.S. Housing Units in 01 that were Rare or Non-Existent in Percent of Housing Units Personal Computrers 2 or More Personal Computers Combination Fax/Copier/Printer Separate Fax Machine Separate Copying Machine Sources: Energy Information Administration, Residential Energy Consumption Surveys.

13 Percent Change in Electricity Consumption by Appliances, Refrigerators, and Lighting, Total Average per Household Ppercent US Northeast Midwest South West Source: Energy Information Administration, Residential Energy Consumption Survey

14 Percent Change in Electricity Consumption for Space Cooling, Percent Total Average per Household US Northeast Midwest South West Sources: Energy Information Administration, Residential Energy Consumption Surveys.

15 Percent Change in Electricity Consumption for Space Heating, Total Average per Household Percent US Northeast Midwest South West Source: Energy Information Administration, Residential Energy Consumption Survey

16 Percent Change in Electricity Consumption for Water Heating, Total Average per Household 36 Percent US Northeast Midwest South W est Source: Energy Information Administration, Residential Energy Consumption Survey

17 Factors Affecting the Growth of Electricity Consumption Average Annual Growth Rates Population 1.3 Number of Housing 2.2 Size of Home Source: Energy Information Administration, Residential Energy Consumption Survey

18 Per Capita Electricity Consumption by Household Size, Kilowatthours One Two 3 or More Household Size Source: Energy Information Administration, Residential Energy Consumption Survey

19 Average Primary Electricity Consumption per Household by Income Groups, Kilowatthours Less than,0000,000 to 29,999 30,000 to 49,999 More than 50,000 Source: Energy Information Administration, Residential Energy Consumption Survey

20 Residential Carbon Dioxide Emissions, Total Energy Electricity-Related Index (1981=100) Source: Energy Information Administration, Residential Energy Consumption Surveys.

21 Distribution of Carbon Dioxide by Fuel Source, Percent Electricity Natural Gas Fuel Oil/Kerosene LPG Source: Energy Information Administration, Residential Energy Consumption Surveys and Emissions of Greenhouse Gases.

22 Emissions of Carbon Dioxide by End Use, Other Appliances Refrigerators Air-Conditioning Water Heating Space Heating Lighting (indoor and outdoor) Cooking Clothes Dryer Freezer Source: Source: Energy Information Administration, Residential Energy Consumption Survey and Emissions of Greenhouse Gases in the United Sates.

23 Average Annual Growth Rate of Carbon Dioxide by End Use, Other Appliances 5.39 Cooking Freezer Clothes Dryer 2.52 Lighting (indoor and Outdoor) 1.18 Water Heating 0.46 Space Heating Air-Conditioning Refrigerators Source: Source: Energy Information Administration, Residential Energy Consumption Survey and Emissions of Greenhouse Gases in the United Sates.

24 Carbon Dioxide Emissions Intensity of Population, and Personal Consumption Expenditures, Index (1981=100) Carbon Emissions per Capita Carbon Emissions per Unit of Personal Consumption Expenditures Source: Source: Energy Information Administration, Residential Energy Consumption Survey and Emissions of Greenhouse Gases in the United Sates.

25 Electricity Demand and Carbon Dioxide Emissions in the Future Between 02 and 25, EIA projects household primary energy consumption to increase by 25 percent. Electricity demand is projected to account for about 76 percent of the growth in household energy use. Between 02 and 25, household carbon dioxide emissions are projected to increase at an average of 1.2 percent per Year.

26 Conclusions Household sector is responsible for a significant amount of carbon dioxide emissions. To avoid increasing carbon emissions, household electricity intensity must decline and /or less carbon intensive fuel should be used for electricity generation Examination of carbon dioxide emissions by end use indicates that the major source of residential carbon emissions are the other appliances that are not under appliance standards.