AEO2010 Residential Sector Projections. Energy Forecasting Group Annual Meeting April 29, 2010 Las Vegas, Nevada

Transcription

1 AEO2010 Residential Sector Projections Energy Forecasting Group Annual Meeting April 29, 2010 Las Vegas, Nevada Erin Boedecker, Operations Research Analyst

2 Overview What s changed Modeling changes Review of stimulus provisions and handling How it looks Highlights Focus on electricity 2

3 NEMS Residential projects for AEO2010 Extend the model time horizon to 2035 Incorporate Federal efficiency standards for fluorescent and reflector lamps Incorporate regional standards for heating and cooling equipment Update heating shares, square footage, etc. Incorporate ENERGY STAR 5.0 for PCs and monitors Include impacts of American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (ARRA09) (also in updated AEO2009) 3

4 ARRA09 provisions modeled in the residential sector Appropriations for energy programs $3.1 billion to DOE s State Energy Program (SEP) Grants to State Energy Office to implement building codes, etc. $3.2 billion to Energy Efficiency and Conservation Block Grant Program $6.2 billion to weatherize homes (weatherization program + some HUD funds) $4.4 4 billion to smart grid investment t Tax Credits Increases EPACT 2005 credits to 30% subject to $1500 cap (includes windows) Removes $2000 cap for ground-source heat pumps and $4000 cap for wind 4

5 NEMS implementation of ARRA09 provisions Energy programs Assume new construction meets IECC 2006 standards by 2011, IECC 2009 by 2018 Reduce heating and cooling energy based on number of homes weatherized and ORNL findings on weatherization impacts; regionally allocated based on weatherization program allocation Assume deployment of smart grid devices leads to increased short-term term elasticity of demand for some uses Tax Credits Reduce cost by appropriate amount Include credit in cash flow analysis for DG 5

6 Residential Highlights from AEO2010 Households down 0.5 percent by 2030, relative to updated AEO2009 Square foot average similar to updated AEO2009 Electricity Sales down 1.5 percent in 2030, relative to updated AEO2009 Real price down 5.1 percent in 2030, relative to updated AEO2009 Natural gas Consumption up 0.5 percent in 2030, relative to updated AEO2009 Real price down 5.8 percent in 2030, relative to updated AEO2009 Source: Annual Energy Outlook

7 Residential electricity use per capita stable under reference technology assumptions index, 2005= Frozen technology Reference High technology Source: Annual Energy Outlook

8 Standards spur efficiency gains in traditional uses El. Other Spas TV Cooking FurnaceFans Rechargeable CoffeeMaker Microwave SecuritySys Cooling DishWash PC All Uses HotWater Dryer Freezer HomeAudio CeilingFan Refrigerator Heating SecHeating ClothesWash Lighting DVD to 2035 growth Annual percent growth in electricity use Source: Annual Energy Outlook

9 Miscellaneous uses dominate growth in residential electricity sales El. Other Cooling TV HotWater Dryer Refrigerator FurnaceFans Cooking PC DishWash Spas Freezer Microwave Rechargeabl CeilingFan HomeAudio CoffeeMaker SecuritySys SecHeating Heating ClothesWash DVD Lighting to Change in electricity sales (billion kwh) Source: Annual Energy Outlook

10 Residential projections considers changes in appliance standards Residential and commercial lamps General Service (2013,2020) Incandescent reflector (2013) Linear fluorescent (2013) Torchiere (2006) Furnaces (2014) and boilers (2013) Air conditioners and heat pumps (2015) Clothes washers (2006) Dishwashers (2010) Source: Annual Energy Outlook

11 Residential electricity use for lighting lower due to new standards billion kilowatthours Updated AEO2009 reference AEO2010 reference Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2010 and updated Annual Energy Outlook 2009 reference cases 11

12 New approaches to energy efficiency standards show potential for gains Stock efficiency improvement (percent) AEO2010 reference case Updated AEO2009 reference case to Central air conditioning (South Atlantic) Electric heat pump (United States) Natural gas furnace (East North Central) Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2010 and updated Annual Energy Outlook 2009 reference cases 12

13 For more information U.S. Energy Information Administration home page Short-Term Energy Outlook Annual Energy Outlook International Energy Outlook Monthly Energy Review National Energy Information Center (202) Live expert from 9:00 AM 5:00 p.m. EST Monday Friday (excluding Federal holidays) 13

14 Thank You Erin Boedecker U.S. Energy Information Administration 14

15 Bonus Slides 15

16 Manufacturers, efficiency advocates agree to regional standards for heating and cooling equipment Target residential furnaces, central AC, air source heat pumps Effective May 2013 for non-weatherized furnaces Effective 2015 for air conditioners and heat pumps Source: American Council for an Energy- Efficient Economy 16

17 United States divided into three regions under efficiency standards agreement Source: American Council for an Energy- Efficient Economy 17

18 U.S. Census divisions 18