Objectives and Outline of the Symposium

Transcription

1 Objectives and Outline of the Symposium Shobhakar Dhakal, Ph.D. Executive Director, Global Carbon Project E mail: Shobhakar.dhakal@nies.go.jp, shobhakar.dhakal@gmail.com Centre for Global Environmental Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16 2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Japan International Symposium on Cities and Carbon Management: Towards Enhancing Science Policy Linkages, Tokyo International Forum, 16 November 2009, Tokyo

2 Contents Brief introduction of organizers Background and objectives of this symposium Outline of symposium and our expectations

3 GLOBAL CARBON PROJECT

4 International Scientific Programs on Global Environmental lchange Si Science Amsterdam Dec claration of ESSP 2006 Beijing Conference REP, START To develop comprehensive, policy relevant understanding di of the global carbon cycle, encompassing its natural and human dimensions and their interactions and management

5 GCP International Project Offices and Supporting Nodes IOC/SCOR-CO2 Panel Paris, France CarboEurope, Germany GHG CA, Italy IGSNRS (CAS), Beijing, China NIES,Tsukuba Japan US Carbon Cycle Science Program US Global Change, D.C., USA CSIRO, Canberra, Australia

6 Global Carbon Project Flagship Activities in 2008/9 Global Carbon Budget and their drivers 2008 (Press release, influential publication, Nature Geosciences, significant media attention) Carbon source sink mechanisms (anthropogenic emissions 55% taken by natural sink and 45% stay in atmosphere; efficiency of natural sink to absorb additional emissions decreased by 5% in 50 years) Vulnerability of carbon pools Tropical peat lands (Southeast Asia, model inter comparisons, stock and processes analyses, emissions from soil and fire etc) Methane hydrates (Assessment workshop, Science Magazine) Permafrost (A new syntheses published in Bioscience Vol 58 No 8, Sep 2008 pp ; pool size, process of transfer to atmosphere, associated ecosystem changes) Ocean sinks (Vulnerability of ocean sources and sinks) Bio energy (Workshop in July 2008 at Piracicaba, Brazil; opportunities and constraint in the context of earth system sustainability) Urban and Regional Carbon Management (Networking, syntheses, assessments, publications, and resource centre)

7 Urban and Regional Carbon Management Initiative (URCM) Goals: Global scientific networking Scientific syntheses andnewresearch new Science policy interfacing Creating scientific information resource base Focal questions: How do urbanization and global carbon cycle interact through population, affluence, energy and other bio physical and socioeconomic mechanisms? What do historical urban development pathways means for carbon; what configurations of underlying drivers explain the differences in cities carbon trajectories? What are the future scenarios of de carbonized urban development? What management strategies can influence carbon mitigation in cities?

8 Urban and Regional Carbon Management events 2006 International Conference on Managing Carbon at Urban and Regional Levels: ConnectingDevelopmentDecisions Decisions withtheglobalissues, the 4 8 September 2006, Mexico City UNFCCC COP 12 side events on CDM and Urban Air Quality (with ECN Policy Studies Netherlands) on 15 th November 2006 in Nairobi International ti lworkshop on Institutional Dimensions i of Ub Urban and Regional Carbon Management (with IHDP) on 5 th December 2006 in Bali 2007 International Workshop onurbanization, Development Pathways and Carbon Implications (with IIASA Austria) on th March 2007 in Tsukuba International Workshop on How to Model Low Carbon Society (with Asia Energy Environment Modeling Forum) on May 2007 in Beijing UNFCCC COP 13 side event on Carbon Management in Cities: Gaps in Policy Discussions and Scientific Understanding, (with Asian Institute of Technology) on 6 th December 2007 in Bali

9 2008 Urban and Regional Carbon Management Activities International Symposium on Urban Energy and Carbon Management: Challenges for Science and Policy, 4 February 2008, AIT Centre, Pathumthani, Thailand International Workshop on Urban Energy and Carbon Modeling, Fb February 5 6, 2008, AIT Centre, Pth Pathumthani, ithailand 2009 International Symposium on Realizing Low Carbon Cities: Bridging science and policy, Fb February 16th, 2009, Nagoya, Japan International Workshop on Towards Low Carbon Cities: Understanding and analyzing urban energy and carbon, February 17th 18th, 2009, Nagoya, Japan

10 INTEGRATED RESEARCH SYSTEM FOR SUSTAINABILITY SCIENCE THE UNIVERSITY OF TOKYO

11 Integrated Research System for Sustainability Science (IR3S) since 2005 Environmental economics and policy Sustainable production and consumption Climate change adaptation Technological l innovation Sustainability governance IR3S Manage ement HQ KSI (Kyoto U) Structuring of problems and knowledge Toyo U NIES Tohoku U Coexistence philosophy Long term strategy Environmental risk management RISS SGP (Osaka U) (Hokkaido U) TIGS (U of Tokyo) Chiba U Food and health Waseda U Politics and journalism ICAS (Ibaraki U) Political vision development Ritsumeikan U Strategic innovations for balanced society UNU International Link and poverty Partner Univ. Associate Ins t. 11

12 IR3S s Challenge: Networking of Fragmented Researches Regional Philosophy IR3S/Todai Sustainability IR3S/Todai Medicine Engineering Oriental Medicine Sustainability Science Governance Social Science Natural Science Environmental Economics Politics and Journalism 12

13 Tentative definition of sustainability science by IR3S To understand interactions within and among global, social, and human systems, the complex mechanisms that lead to degradation of these systems and concomitant risks to human well being and security, To propose visions and methods for protecting and/or restoring these systems and linkages. To adopt a comprehensive, holistic approach to the identification of problems and perspectives involving the sustainability. 13

14 Linkages among three systems Low-Carbon Society Global warming Social system Politics Economy Industry Technology Global system Climate system Energy and Resources Ecosystem Complex Problem Mass production, consumption, destruction infectious diseases natural disaster Environmental Risk Management Human system Security/Safety Lifestyle Health Norms and values Resource-circulating society 14

15 Linking Knowledge for Climate Change Studies Amount of anthropogenic GHG emission? Emission sources? What is the mechanism of climate change Key Question 社会的ニーズ How can human societies change? Future climate? Sea-level rise? How much GHG reduction and adaptation is possible by technology? What kind of policies are required? How much human and ecosystem put at risk by climate change? Risk can be avoided by adaptation? IR3S Flagship Project 15

16 Research that integrates the Three Societies Sustainability indices to connect each society Indices: Energy production (fossil fuels, renewable), GHG emissions A Low Carbon Society Climate change and ecosystems Climate change and energy/resources A Sustainable Society A Society in Harmony with Nature Indices: Land use, Changes in land use rates, Indices: Quantities of natural resources exploited, Recycling rates, amount of waste A Sound Material- Cycle Society Ecosystems and environmental load Ecosystem functions Integrated and Very Long-term Scenario for Sustainable Society 16

17 SYMPOSIUM BACKGROUNDS, GOALS AND OBJECTIVES

18 CO2 mitigation challenge is enormous for climate stabilization Current net anthropogenic radiative forcing: 1.6 W/m2 Case 1: If we allow temperature to rise to about 4 to 5ºC by the end of this century - impacts would be severe- We should be peaking between Case 2: We allow temperature to rise only about 2 to 2.4ºC by the end of this century - impacts would be significant already? We should be peaking before Source: IPCC AR4 WG 3 Report

19 Emissions from Fossil Fuel and Cement ssion (GtC/y Fo ossil Fuel Emi Emissions: 6.2 Pg C y Emissions: 8.2 Pg C y Emissions: 8.5 Pg C y -1 38% increase Emissions PgC emissions in : 09%y 0.9% : 3.5% y -1 4 times Data Source: G. Marland, T.A. Boden, R.J. Andres, and J. Gregg at CDIAC

20 Contributions of cities WEO, 2008 Energy-related CO2 emissions in cities by region in the Reference Scenario 30.8 Gt 19.8 Gt 89% of cumulative increase in comes from non-oecd countries US cities :4.5 Gt, 23% EU cities :2.7 Gt, 14% China cities::4.8 Gt, 24% 71% of 76% of 27 GtC total 39.6 GtC total Increase: 12.6 GtC 11 GtC from cities, 88%

21 Role of urban area: Global urban population and share of urban agglomeration by size Share of urban agglomeration size in urban population 69.6% Almost all global pop p growth from urban population Additional 1.8 bn in next 25 years 51.4% 31.4% <Dhakal, 2009> Based on UN Urban Population Statistics 2007 updates

22 Cities have already started to act individually and collectively l we cannot wait Questions How shall we develop a better understanding of urban carbon system in regards to development pathways, technology, life style, governance, carbon accounting, monitoring and measurement? How can we make cities actions scientifically robust? in terms of their scope of actions, boundaries, tools, and approaches How can we make scientific research producing relevant science/research useful to city decisions makers?

23 Research policy dialogues for cities are prerequisite ii for low carbon future Decision makerbeing responsive to credible scientific facts for examples Possible carbon leakages of their actions appropriate system of emissions accounting Appropriate system boundaries including functional boundaries of activities (beyond territorial principles) Science/research being responsive to decisions makers' needs for examples Developing useful tools and methods Providing plausible visions for low carbon cities More research on human behaviors and responses, and the operational issues regarding governance, technology and lifestyle

24 Objective of this symposium Bringingscientific research, practitionerandand other supporting communities together to discuss the challenges and opportunities towards low carbon cities Enhancing science policy dialogues and promoting better linkages between participating communities

25 OUTLINE OF TODAY S SYMPOSIUM International Symposium on Cities and Carbon Management: Towards Enhancing Science Policy Linkages Representation of three communities Speakers are leaders and in their areas All sessions are 10 min short talks followed by discussions Scientific research community Opening City decision makers community Supporting community

26 Symposium Outline Key note speech: Prof. John Robinson Round Table 1 and 2: Science Reaching Out to the Decisions Makers RT1 chaired by Dr. Shuzo Nishioka RT 2 chaired by Prof. John Robinson Seven distinguished speakers covering carbon cycle, spatial perspective, carbon accounting, technology and infrastructure, carbon responsibility, policy instruments t and governance One hour lunch time in between

27 Symposium Outline Round Table 3: Decisions Makers Reaching Out to the Science Chaired by Mr. Marcus Lee Five cities covering lessons and experiences from Tokyo London Chicago Jakarta Delhi Represent a good set of leader cities B.C. Sabata

28 Symposium Outline Round Table 4: How Can Facilitators Assist in Creating Better Science Policy Linkages Chaired by Ms. Mika Ohbayashi Five speakers representing Closing science grant making organization Multilateral bank Policy research institute International city initiative UN agency Reception

29 Our expectations: Short and crisp presentations Bringing out key challenges and opportunities for carbon management Discussions on improving sciencepolicy linkages for carbon management Thank you