Arctic Futures: Possible Scenario Approaches from SRES to RCPs and SSPs
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1 Arctic Futures: Possible Scenario Approaches from SRES to RCPs and SSPs Nebojsa Nakicenovic Deputy Director General and Deputy CEO International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Professor of Energy Economics Vienna University of Technology AMAP-IIASA Arctic Scenarios Workshop IIASA, Laxenburg May 2014
2 Arctic Shipping Routes Nakicenovic Source: Smith & Stephenson, #2
3 Arctic Shipping Routes RCP RCP 8.5 Nakicenovic Source: Smith & Stephenson, #3
4 Arctic Shipping Routes RCP RCP 8.5 Nakicenovic Source: Smith & Stephenson, #4
5 Great Transformations are driven by ultimate rather than by proxy drivers... (consistency) Nakicenovic Source: After Paul Raskin, 2002 #5 2014
6 Proximate and Ultimate Drivers Proximate Drivers Population Economy Technology Governance Values and Needs Knowledge and Understanding Power Structure Culture Ultimate Drivers Nakicenovic Source: Paul Raskin, 2002 #6 2014
7 Schematic Illustration of Alternative Scenario Formulations Quantitative Models Scenarios Stories Qualitative Nakicenovic #7 2014
8 3 million entries on Internet Nakicenovic #
9 IPCC SRES and TAR Technology is at least as important driving force of GHG emissions as population and economic Growth (SRES). Innovative technology is an important driving force of a broad range of GHG atomspheric stabilization levels over the next 100 years or more (TAR). INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC) Nakicenovic #9 2014
10 IPCC SRES Storylines and Scenarios g Population Low High Medium High Very-h Medium Low Economy and Technology INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC) Nakicenovic #
11 GDP Growth Rates and Affluence Annual growth rate of GDP, percent A1 China B1 DCs B2 India A2 Case A Case B China, Taiwan REFs Japan Germany Italy Case A OECD Case C GDP per capita, US(1990)$ Nakicenovic #
12 INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
13 INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
14 s Global Mean Temperature Change Six illustrative SRES scenarios, full range INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
15 Surface Temperature Change AOGCM projections for illustrative SRES scenarios INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHNGE (IPCC)
16 Emissions and Costs Cumulative Emissions (GtCeq.) Emissions Costs A2r B Cumulative System Costs (trillion$) Nakicenovic CO2-equivalent concentration in 2100, ppmv 2014 #16
17 Integrated Assessment Framework SRES, TAR and FAR+ Climate Change Impacts Vulnerabilities Adaptation Emissions Mitigation Socio-Economic Development Paths INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
18 Integrated Assessment Framework The Parallel Process for Scenario Development RCPs Climate Change Impacts Vulnerabilities SSPs Concentrations Revised Fluxes Adaptation Emissions Mitigation Socio-Economic Revised Development Paths INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
19 Aspen, 2006 Nakicenovic #
20 IAMC Meeting Tsukuba, Japan September 2009
21 IPCC FIFTH ASSESSMENT REPORT 19 IIASA authors & reviewers plus key roles in Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) and Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) datasets that underpin Fifth Assessment MESSAGE (IIASA) AIM (NIES) GCAM (PNNL) IMAGE (PBL) Conceptual framework and substance of RCPs and SSPs in 3 special issues 21
22 Global CO 2 Emissions Global CO2 emissions (PgC) IPCC Category I RPC 8.5 RPC 6.0 RPC 4.5 RPC 2.6 GEA (SE4ALL) RCP 8.5 reductions of 35-75% by 2050 Peak by 2020 RCP 2.6 RCP 6.0 RCP almost zero or negative in the long term Nakicenovic 2014 #22
23 Global Mean Surface Temperature Nakicenovic Source: IPCC WGI, #23
24 Unified (re-ordered) SSP scheme SSPs aim at covering the range of plausible combinations of mitigative and adaptive capacity (in the baseline) Baseline Emission Decreasing Mitigation Capacity SSP 5 SSP 3 SSP 2 SSP 1 SSP 4 Decreasing Adaptive Capacity Increasing Sensitivity Nakicenovic #
25 INTEGRATED ANALYSIS FOR IPCC AR5+ Refined after community review RCPs (Complete) CMIP5 (Complete) Under way
26 Interpreting & Using RCPs & SSPs Great achievement is community building A small scenario set needed by most users How can scenarios be used and adapted Creative and simple meta-narrative and logic Pertinent interpretation of drivers and outcomes Qualitative and quantitative down-scaling Nakicenovic 2014 #26
27 Steampunk Arctic Explorer Nakicenovic Source: Kingery, #27
28 Permafrost Areas Endangered Nakicenovic 2014 #28
29 Challenges in the Arctic Nakicenovic 2014 #29
30 Arctic oil and gas
31 Cumulative Emissions for 2 o C Stabilization ~500 PgC Unconventional Gas ~ PgC Gas Hydrates ~28,000 PgC Arctic Gas ~26 PgC N. Gas ~ PgC Oil ~ PgC Unconv. Oil ~ PgC Biomass ~ PgC Carbon Storage Potential ~ PgC Historcial Emissions ~500 PgC Gas Hydrates (Arctic Only) ~5000 PgC Coal ~ 10,000 PgC Preindustrial Atmosphere ~500 PgC Present Atmosphere ~800 PgC Source: GEA, 2012 #31 14
32 Arctic Pipelines Nakicenovic 2014 #32
33 Geohazards from Hydrates Gas blowouts from permafrost in West Siberia Fire when drilling monitoring well Permafrost gas bubbling around production well Gas production well column Nakicenovic Source: Gasprom, #33
34 Geohazards from Hydrates GAS TORCH FROM SHALLOW PERMAFROST AT WELL 62-P-2 (BOVANENKOVO FIELD,YAMAL PENINSULA) FROM DEPTH 64 M WHEN TESTING Nakicenovic Source: Gasprom, #34
35 SuperGrid and MagLev Trains Nakicenovic 2014 #35
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