The Road to Paris: From Global Commitments to National Pledges and Co-Benefits

Transcription

1 The Road to Paris: From Global Commitments to National Pledges and Co-Benefits Nebojsa Deputy Director General International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Professor Emeritus of Energy Economics Vienna University of Technology ALPS International Symposium, Effective Frameworks and Measures for Climate Change to COP21, hosted by Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth (RITE) at the Technology International Forum, Tokyo 27 February 2015

2 IIASA Research Strategy Food & Water Energy & Climate Change Poverty & Equity 2015 #2

3 IIASA Research Strategy Food & Water Energy & Climate Change Poverty & Equity 2015 #3

4 IIASA Nexus Research Water Energy Food 2015 #4

5 Global Transformations Years before present People Hunter-Gatherer Source: Kates, 1997; Deevey, #5

6 Global Transformations Neolithic Revolution Years before present People Million Neolithic 1700 A.D Million 5000 B.C. Hunter-Gatherer Source: Kates, 1997; Deevey, #6

7 Global Transformations Neolithic and Industrial Revolutions Years before present ,000 Million Industrial People Million Neolithic 1700 A.D Million 5000 B.C. Hunter-Gatherer Source: Kates, 1997; Deevey, #7

8 Global Transformations People Anthropocene - Toward Sustainability ,000 Million Million 10 8 Neolithic Years before present after present Anthropocene Industrial Sustainability 1700 A.D Billion 5 Billion Million 5000 B.C. Hunter-Gatherer Source: Lutz & Scherbov, 2007; #8

9 100% Urbanization World 80% IIASA SRES A2r scenario IIASA SRES B1 scenario Population 60% 40% Historical (UN) IIASA SRES B2 scenario 20% 0% Source: Grubler et al #9

10 Urbanization World, UK, BRICs 100% 80% UK IIASA SRES A2r scenario IIASA SRES B1 scenario Population 60% 40% Historical (UN) IIASA SRES B2 scenario BRICs 20% 0% Source: Grubler et al #10

11 Global Educational Attainment 100% 80% Primary Education+ Population 60% 40% Secondary Education+ 20% 0% Source: Lutz et al., #11

12 Participatory Governance 100% 80% Participatory Population 60% 40% 20% 0% Source: Modelski & Perry, 2008; #12

13 Participatory Governance Slavery Abolishment 100% Population 80% 60% 40% 20% Abolishment 1863 United States of America 1906 China 1948 UN Declaration of Human Rights Participatory 0% Source: & Rogner, 2012; 2015 #13

14 Cumulative Carbon Emissions 100% 80% RCP % 40% 20% 0% #14

15 Cumulative Carbon Emissions 100% 80% RCP % 40% 20% 0% #15

16 Cumulative Carbon Emissions 100% 80% Net-negative emissions RCP % 40% 20% 0% #16

17 S us tainability Trans formation Transformation Diffusion Growing number of actors of change: green businesses cities civil society science IGOs (UNIDO etc.) Legitimacy of BAU eroding Doing More with Les s within B oundaries Values and norms Policy regimes Increasing problem perception Vision: Sustainable Future Time Source: WBGU, #17

18 Transformation Drivers Learning from the Past Normative goals, visions Abolition of slavery, participatory governance, EU Crises, gales of creative destruction The Great Depression, financial crises, disasters Technology, rapid innovation diffusion Substitution of carriages by cars, IT-revolution Knowledge, research-driven society Precautionary principle - ozone layer, climate change Source: Grubler, 2000; WBGU, #18

19 2030 Energy Goal Universal Access to Modern Energy Double Energy Efficiency Improvement Double Renewable Share in Final Energy Aspirational & Ambitious but Achievable UN General Assembly resolution 65/ #19

20 Transformation of Energy Systems One of 41 GEA Pathways 100% 80% Final Energy 60% 40% LIQUIDS GRIDS 20% SOLIDS 0% Source: Global Energy Assessment, #20

21 Transformation of Energy Systems One of 41 GEA Pathways 100% 80% Final Energy 60% 40% LIQUIDS GRIDS 20% SOLIDS 0% Source: Global Energy Assessment, #21

22 Global Primary Energy Historical Evolution EJ Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass Kommerzielle Luftfahrt Nuklearenergie Mikrochip Dampfmaschine Elektrischer Motor Vakuumröhre Ottomotor Fernseher Renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal 0 Biomass #22

23 Global Primary Energy no CCS, no Nuclear Einsparungen Savings Andere Other renewables E Nuklear Nuclear Gas Öl Oil Kohle Coal Biomasse Energy savings (efficiency, conservation, and behavior) ~40% improvement by 2030 ~55% renewables by 2030 Nuclear phase-out (policy) EJ Renewables Nuclear Gas Oil 0 Biomass Source: Riahi et al, #23 Coal

24 Global Water Withdrawals no CCS, no Nuclear Gm Baseline Geothermal Solar Wind Hydro Nuclear Gas wccs Gas woccs Oil Coal wccs Coal woccs Biomass wccs Biomass woccs Renewables Nuclear Gas 200 Oil Coal 0 Biomass #24

25 2015 #25

26 Global Primary Energy A Transformational Pathway Savings Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass Energy savings (efficiency, conservation, and behavior) ~40% improvement by 2030 ~30% renewables by 2030 EJ Nat-gas-CCS Coal-CCS Bio-CCS negative CO 2 Renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal 0 Biomass Source: Riahi et al, #26

27 Global Primary Energy A Transformational Pathway EJ Savings Geothermal Solar Wind Hydro Nuclear Gas wccs Gas woccs Oil Coal wccs Coal woccs Biomass wccs Biomass woccs Nat-gas-CCS Coal-CCS Renewables Nuclear Gas 200 Limited Bioenergy Bio-CCS negative CO 2 Oil Coal 0 Biomass Source: Riahi et al, #27

28 Global Water Withdrawals A Transformational Pathway Gm Baseline Geothermal Solar Wind Hydro Nuclear Gas wccs Gas woccs Oil Coal wccs Coal woccs Biomass wccs Biomass woccs Nat-gas-CCS Coal-CCS Renewables Nuclear Gas 200 Limited Bioenergy Bio-CCS negative CO 2 Oil Coal 0 Biomass Source: Fricko et al, #28

29 Carbon Capture and Storage GEA scenarios: World (GtCO 2 ) 3000 Cum mulative carbon sto ored (GtCO O2) 2500 Max ~ 2500 GtCO rapid upscaling (2050) 1000 Commercialization (2030) 500 Supply Mix Efficiency Source: Riahi, GEA Transformation possible without CCS (however, needs strong efficiency focus!) 2015 #29

30 Policy Integration at the Urban Scale Simulated energy use, urban settlement of 20,000, using the SimCity Model Source: Grubler et al, #30

31 Global CO 2 Emissions Global CO2 emissions (GtCO2) IPCC AR5 2 Degree RCP 6.0 RCP 4.5 RCP 2.6 RCP 8.5 GEA (SE4ALL) reductions of 35-75% by 2050 Peak by 2020 RCP 8.5 RCP 6.0 RCP almost zero or negative in the long term RCP #31

32 EU CO 2 Emissions GEA 2 Degree (>50%) RCP2.6 Pledge CO2 emissions (GtCO2) #32

33 USA CO 2 Emissions CO2 emissions (GtCO2) GEA 2 Degree (>50%) RCP2.6 Pledge #33

34 China CO 2 Emissions GEA 2 Degree (>50%) RCP2.6 Pledge CO2 emissions (GtCO2) #34

35 Co-benefits of GHG Mitigation costs Source: IPCC, Figure 6.33 and TS 2015 #35

36 Community science organizations critical for a comprehensive assessment C4MIP (SRES +) WGI Physical Science WGIII Mitigation Well organized, long tradition AR4 SRES and non-sres studies (highly diverse) WGII Impacts Vulnerability Adaptation Some community efforts More loosely organized EMF22 (non-co2) SRES and non-sres 2015 #36

37 Community science organizations critical for a comprehensive assessment RCPs WGI Physical Science CMIP5 Inter-comparison Projects EMF 27 (Technology) AMPERE (Delay & Policy) LIMITS WGIII (Burden sharing) Mitigation AME (Asian focus) ROSE (Uncertainty).. AR5 RCPs WGII Impacts Vulnerability Adaptation ISI-MIP AgMIP SSPs 2015 #37

38 Science for Transformation Better integration across science communities Climate or development first approach too narrow More integrated & holistic assessment of climate change policy in the context of other priorities: Multi-objective & multi-policy framing to better understand climate policy tradeoffs & benefits Nexus approaches to reach multiple objectives simultaneously: energy, water, food & urbanization Challenges are huge: Different constraints and priorities across scales Normative goals involved in policy prioritization 2015 #38

39 Policy Tools for Decision Making Minimum Fufillment Maximum Fufillment Climate Change Health / Air Pollution Energy Security Energy Access Ancilliary Risks Energy Affordability GEA Pathway Analysis 2015 #39

40 Jean-Jacques Rousseau Social contract: Man is born free, and everywhere he is in chains 2015 #40

41 THANK YOU