Jessica Forrest 1, Nikolai Sindorf 1, Ryan Bartlett 1, Rinjan Shrestha 2, Gokarna Jung Thapa 3 1. WWF US, 2. WWF Canada, 3.

Transcription

1 Planning for Alpine Wildlife and Water Resources under Changing Climate Society for Conservation GIS Annual Conference Asilomar Conference Center June 23-25, 2016 Jessica Forrest 1, Nikolai Sindorf 1, Ryan Bartlett 1, Rinjan Shrestha 2, Gokarna Jung Thapa 3 1. WWF US, 2. WWF Canada, 3. WWF Nepal WWF-Canon / Steve Morgan

2 The Snow Leopard: An Umbrella Species _ National Geographic /S.Winter / WWF 2

3 The Study Area: High Asia 3

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6 KLEIN & HUBERT / WWF Does snow leopard habitat overlap with areas important for water provision to downstream human populations? If so, what are the most important areas of overlap? WWF-Canon / Steve Morgan 6

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9 Where is the snow leopard potentially most and least vulnerable to climate change? KLEIN & HUBERT / WWF 9

10 We Mapped Two Components of Vulnerability Macro-refugia: large areas likely to remain suitable for snow leopards in the future due to climate or habitat stability Current Human and Natural Disturbance: indicates areas potentially vulnerable to climate change due to the presence of concurrent threats 10

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15 What types of management, and where, are most appropriate for maintaining snow leopard populations and water security for humans under climate change? 15

16 Water management strategies with benefits to snow leopards Prevent land cover change and degradation Limit off-take of water for new land uses such as crops and development BOGOMOLOV Denis / WWF-Russia 16

17 Analysis Extent

18 Downscaling maps for management planning 1. Map current snow leopard habitat 2. Overlay with threats such as climate vulnerability and human impact 3. Augment with other ecosystem values: other focal species or biodiversity, ecosystem services 4. Proceed with management zoning as an iterative, multi-stakeholder process

19 The Study Area

20 1. Map current snow leopard habitat Species niche modeling approach based on the Maximum Entropy Model, MaxEnt MaxEnt utilizes species presence points and environmental layers Produces probability of occurrence map and statistics on habitat preferences Easy to run, replicate, and customize based on data availability and unique habitat preferences Phillips et al

21 Data Snow leopard observations 45 points for training, 20 for test Selected as representative sample from > 2000 points Points are > 500 m apart. Land cover Mosaicked and resampled to 90 m Elevation 90 m Ruggedness 90 m Source Kanchenjunga radio collar data (2015) Kanchenjunga DNA sample Kanchenjunga camera trap data Panthera/WCS/ISLT/Snow leopard trust snow leopard observations (2008) Nepal, India, Bhutan: Eastern Himalayas Land cover (24 m, WWF 2015) China: Tree canopy cover 2000 >=30% (30 m, Hansen et al. 2013) Glacier data (Chinese Academy of Sciences from GLIMS) WWF HydroSHEDs 90 m Void-filled DEM Derived from WWF HydroSHEDs and Sappington et al Vector Ruggedness Model, using a 15 x 15 moving window

22 AUC (Training) = AUC (Training) = AUC (Test) = AUC (Test) = 0.746

23 AUC (Training) = AUC (Test) = 0.746

24 2. Overlay with threats such as climate vulnerability and human impact Climate threats (niche models, habitat change, risk maps) Human threats (settlements, roads, degradation, overgrazing of livestock)

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26 Higher Climate Risk

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29 3. Augment with other ecosystem values Ecosystem services (water, carbon storage) Other focal species (birds, fish, prey, important habitats) Indicators of climate resilience (land facets)

30 w a t e r t o w e r s Snow leopards hate watertowers High Provision Low % Top Percentiles 30

31 s n o w m e l t f m a m Top snowmelt water provision areas BUT snowmelt season in J-J-A So, less important for spring snowmelt High Provision Low % Top Percentiles 31

32 4. Conclusions Complex relationship between wildlife, water as an ecosystem service, and climate change. (Wildlife habitat does not always act as good water source, and it depends on the type and season) Analysis scales serve two different functions: Regional for the big picture and for advocacy Local scale for implementing zoning and management Good landscape-wide management aimed at preserving/restoring landscape connectivity and minimizing other stressors will be necessary to conserve snow leopards under climate change

33 Thank you!