Inclusive Growth in Scotland. Gary Gillespie, Chief Economist Scottish Government 12 th February 2016
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1 Inclusive Growth in Scotland Gary Gillespie, Chief Economist Scottish Government 12 th February 2016
2 Structure Background Scottish context What do we mean by inclusive growth in Scotland? What is the Scottish Government doing on inclusive growth? Next steps inclusive growth diagnostic
3 The Scottish context
4 Scotland s Economy Strong aggregate post-recession performance
5 But challenges remain: Real Wages and Employment Opportunities
6 Luxembourg Norway United States Belgium Netherlands Denmark France Ireland Germany Switzerland Sweden Austria Australia Finland Spain Italy Canada United Kingdom Scotland Iceland Slovenia Japan New Zealand Slovak Republic Greece Portugal Czech Republic Korea Turkey Hungary Poland Mexico Denmark Slovak Slovenia Norway Czech Iceland Finland Belgium Sweden Austria Netherlands Switzerland Hungary Germany Poland Scotland Korea Luxembourg Ireland France Canada Australia Italy New Zealand Spain Japan Estonia Portugal Greece United Israel United States Turkey Mexico Chile Gini Coefficient International Rankings - Scotland Inequality: In terms of the Gini coefficient, Scotland would rank 16 th out of the OECD countries for income inequality Productivity: Scotland is currently ranked 19 th out of 32 OECD countries when measured by GDP per hour worked. Top Quartile Second Quartile Third Quartile Bottom Quartile
7 Post Recession - Is this the new normal? 1 in 7
8 Unemployment rate (%) Beyond the national picture, significant regional inequalities 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% Unemployment rates by local authority, 2014 (%) 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Unemployment rates vary significantly between regions in Scotland. Source: APS The Scottish unemployment rate in 2014 was 6.2%, though this varied widely among local authorities, from 2.7% in the Orkney Islands to 9.5% in Glasgow City. 8
9 From data to strategy: Scotland s Economic Framework
10 What do we mean by Inclusive Growth?
11 What is inclusive growth? There are many different kinds of growth. Inclusive growth is a type of growth where the benefits are shared evenly across society. Inclusive growth is about both the pace and pattern/ distribution of growth (IMF, World Bank). The aim of inclusive growth is, therefore, to achieve both sustainable economic growth, but with a particular emphasis on who benefits from growth. Inclusive growth policies are focused on the long-term transformation of the economy towards sustainable and productive employment (essentially more of the right kinds of jobs).
12 Scotland s definition of Inclusive Growth Growth that combines increased prosperity with greater equity; that creates opportunities for all and distributes the dividends of increased prosperity fairly Scotland (SES) Incorporates traditional growth policies: investment, innovation, internationalisation, labour markets and employment Is multi-dimensional: it includes social inclusion, well-being, participation, environmental Tackles inequalities in outcomes but also inequalities in opportunities Promotes more equal growth across cities, regions and rural areas, and recognises importance of place/community in delivering this.
13 The Policy Framework
14 What is the Scottish Government doing on inclusive growth? (Spoiler: A lot)
15 Scotland an international perspective: an incubator for Inclusive Growth
16 Progress broad actions being taken across SG Significant investments in early years interventions and expanding childcare provision, which should improve child outcomes, with increased childcare should also help reduce barriers to female participation; Increased focus on improving educational attainment, through initiatives such as the Scottish Attainment Challenge; A Commission on Widening Access to higher education, which will provide recommendations around how to improve access to higher education among the most disadvantaged 20 per cent of society; Activities to develop Scotland s young workforce and reduce youth unemployment, such as expansion of Modern Apprenticeships; Initiatives to improve the quality of workplaces in Scotland, such as the Business Pledge and the Fair Work Convention. Exceeded our target of delivering 30,000 affordable homes as well as starting a new generation of council house building and ending the Right to Buy.
17 Next steps Inclusive Growth Diagnostic Where do we invest for maximum impact?
18 How to we determine progress on Inclusive Growth? Need to move from policy framework to understanding what constraints may hold back inclusivity and growth. Diagnostics have been developed and applied for Inclusive Growth in developing country context. They focus on identifying constraints to progress (both on inclusion and growth side). How do we prioritise our actions? Where do we invest for maximum impact?
19 What is an inclusive growth diagnostic? Origin: 2005 paper by three Harvard development economists (Hausmann, Rodrik and Velasco - HRV). Can be tailored to our own definition. Now many different forms, focused on looking across inclusive growth in order to prioritise actions to take. Used in spending decisions.
20 Potential implications of adopting such an approach? Align existing policies to the diagnostic framework and the constraint the policy is addressing. May highlight misalignment in policy or gaps in support. You can use evidence of policy impact (specific initiatives) to inform progress. Potentially one evidence base for Scotland (across both social and economic spheres) to drive change.
21 A framework for Scottish IGD INCLUSION Sustainable inclusion Inclusive growth Employment opportunities (jobs) GROWTH Employability Sustainability Boosting competitiveness Participat ion Access to employment Equality of opportuni ty (social mobility/ intergen) Economi c geograp hy/ cities Social and human capital Wellbeing and health Skills ` Natural capital Social capital (networks, agency) Distribution of gains Responsible businesses ` Investme nt Interna tional n Innovati on Labour supply & sustainability of growth Growth and labour demand
22 Questions What aspects do we consider to be most important in understanding what inclusive growth means in Scotland? Is inclusive growth a long or short term enterprise in Scotland? Where are the (sectoral) opportunities for structural change in the Scottish economy that would support inclusive growth? Does the framework for the diagnostic make sense for Scotland? How could we improve it further? Which countries would be good peer comparator countries for Scotland?
23 Thank you
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