DET NORSKE VERITAS & ERM WEST, INC.

Transcription

1 DET NORSKE VERITAS & ERM WEST, INC. Aleutian Islands Risk Assessment Phase A Preliminary Risk Assessment TASK 1: Semi-quantitative Traffic Study Report Prepared For: National Fish and Wildlife Foundation United States Coast Guard Alaska Department of Environmental Conservation Report no. / DNV ref no: EP September 2010

2 Table of Contents Page 1 INTRODUCTION Background Purpose and Scope of Work Study Area Traffic Types VESSEL MAKEUP AND TRAFFIC PATTERNS Overview of Traffic Types and Patterns Container Vessels (Category 1 and 2) Bulk Carriers (Category 3 and 4) General Cargo Vessels (Category 5) Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) carriers and other gas carriers (Category 6) Roll-On/Roll-Off and Pure Car Carriers (Category 7) Cruise Ships (Category 8) Tank Ships (Categories 9, 10 and 11) Tugs and Barges (Category 12, 13 and 15) Fishing Vessels (Category 14) Government Vessels (Category 16) Refrigerated Cargo Vessels (Tramp Trade) Category Other Vessels (Category 18) Overview of Data Sources AIS Data Data from Shore-Based Facilities Data from other Sources Vessel Categories MOVEMENT OF COMMODITIES Current Movements of Commodities Current Movement Non-Native/Invasive Species Future Movements of Commodities Forecast Analysis Imports East Bound Traffic...37 EP September 2010 Page i

3 Exports West Bound Traffic Data Sources Approach Assumptions Alternative Scenarios - Recession Future Movement Non-Native/Invasive Species FLEET FORECAST Ship Building and Market Trends General Trend in Ship Sizes Trends in Individual Ship Classes Container ships Bulk Carriers Car Carriers / Roll-on/Roll-offs Oil Tankers Barges Fishing Vessels IMO and Other Statutory Conventions The 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) Current IMO Rules and Future Amendments SOLAS MARPOL OPA Industry Risk Reduction Measures TRAFFIC FORECAST Transpacific Forecast Approach Future Arctic Routes Analysis Sea-Ice Recession Arctic Shipping Routes Potential Impact from Oil, Gas Developments Other Considerations, British Columbia Expansions Canada s Asia-Pacific Gateway and Corridor Initiative Canada s West Coast Crude Oil Pipeline Expansions/Proposals Proposed Mining and Mineral Extraction Activities...74 EP September 2010 Page ii

4 6 CONCLUSIONS REFERENCES ACRONYMS, DEFINITIONS AND CONVERSION FACTORS Acronyms Definitions Conversion Factors and Properties...91 EP September 2010 Page iii

5 1 INTRODUCTION The Aleutian Islands Risk Assessment (AIRA) program was created to produce a comprehensive evaluation of the risk of vessel accidents and spills in the Aleutian Islands ( The risk assessment is being conducted in two Phases, Phase A Preliminary Risk Assessment (Semi-quantitative assessment, current phase) and Phase B Focused Risk Assessment. The Phase A scope of work consists of eight tasks; the first task is the Marine Traffic Study. This document is the Phase A Task 1, Semi-quantitative Traffic Study Report (Task 1 Traffic Study). It characterizes the following three key parameters of the marine traffic risk baseline of the Aleutian Islands: Existing fleet and traffic in the Aleutian Islands region and quantities of oil and other hazardous cargos being moved; Projected growth in trade; and Forecast of the fleet makeup over a 25-year study period ( ) based on the impacts of known and reasonably expected regulatory changes, changes in vessel design and size. This final Task 1 Traffic Study Report incorporates comments on the draft report received from the Management Team [consisting of the National Fish and Wildlife Foundation (NFWF), United States Coast Guard (USCG), and Alaska Department of Environmental Conservation (ADEC), the Advisory Panel members, and the Peer Review Panel]. 1.1 Background In 2004, the M/V Selendang Ayu grounded off Unalaska Island, releasing more than 336,000 gallons of oil (IFO 380 and marine diesel) near the shore of Unimak Island. While this incident was particularly consequential, other marine casualties and near misses have taken place and continue to occur in the region. The court settlement resulting from this accident established funding for a comprehensive risk assessment and directed the U.S. Coast Guard to take actions necessary to conduct this assessment (Ref. /63/). The North Pacific Great Circle Route is the shortest transportation distance for vessels travelling between Northwest North America and East Asia. Along this particular route, Unimak Pass in the eastern Aleutians is used by vessels travelling between ports such as Vancouver and Seattle, and those in East Asia, such as Shanghai and Yokohama. In addition to Unimak Pass, vessel traffic transiting North of the Aleutian Islands crosses again at a point west of Tanaga Island (West of longitude W) (Ref. /64/). The National Academies was asked to examine the available data and develop a framework for a comprehensive risk assessment. The resulting report, Special Report 293 (Ref. /63/), describes the structure and design of an appropriate risk assessment and presents the committee s recommendations for organizing, managing and conducting a comprehensive assessment of the risk of vessel accidents and spills in the Aleutian Islands. EP September 2010 Page 1

6 The Risk Analysis Team of Environmental Resources Management (ERM) and Det Norske Veritas (DNV) are conducting Phase A Preliminary Risk Assessment following the process outlined in the AIRA Phase A Request for Proposal (Ref. /65/). 1.2 Purpose and Scope of Work The purpose of the Phase A Preliminary Risk Assessment is to identify the more significant risks related to spills from shipping and provide a basis for the identification and initial ranking of possible risk reduction measures. This study is intended to provide a high-level understanding of relative risks taking into consideration types of vessels and hazardous substances, and the locations where discharges are most likely to occur (Ref. /65/). The AIRA RFP outlines eight tasks to be completed under the Phase A Preliminary Risk Assessment. Task 1 is the Semi-Quantitative Traffic Study. In brief, the Scope of Work for the Traffic study consists of: 1. Performing a vessel traffic study to characterize the existing fleet and traffic in the region and the quantities of oil and other hazardous cargos being moved. 2. Projecting growth in trade, changes in vessel design and size, and the impacts of known and reasonably expected regulatory changes. 3. Estimating the current and future fleet makeup over a 25-year study period ( ) (Ref. /65/). The scope of work is defined in further detail in the Request For Proposal (RFP) (Ref. /65/) and the work proposal prepared by ERM / DNV in response to this RFP (Ref. /66/) Study Area The study area is bounded by 50 North to 55 30' North and 160 West to 170 East (Figure 1-1). The area is approximately 1080 nautical miles (NM) by 330 NM and the Aleutian Islands extend through the center of the area. It should be noted that there is a discontinuity in the coordinate system within the study area. Conventionally, degrees East are positive and degrees West are negative. Thus as a position moves West across the study area, the coordinates change from -180 West to +179 East. To overcome this difficulty, 179 East was defined as -181 West for the purposes of this study. EP September 2010 Page 2

7 Figure 1-1: Study Area Traffic Types All vessels that carry at least 10,000 gallons of fuel oil, or other oil products or other hazardous cargos are included in the study. The Risk Analysis Team guiding the execution of this study identified 18 traffic types for consideration, which includes all types identified in the RFP. The RFP also specified that vessels below 300 Gross Tons (GT) may be excluded from consideration, with the exception of tugs. EP September 2010 Page 3

8 2 VESSEL MAKEUP AND TRAFFIC PATTERNS This section describes the makeup of vessels transiting or operating in the Aleutian Islands and their traffic patterns, followed by the characteristics of the vessel traffic for each vessel category. This is Task 1A in the work proposal (Ref. /66/). The data analyzed was solely based on Automated Information System (AIS) data received from the Marine Exchange of Alaska (MXAK). The MXAK AIS stations cover a small percentage of the study area with a primary focus of Unimak Pass and Unalaska. The MXAK AIS stations capture vessels transiting through Unimak Pass on Eastbound and Westbound journeys via the North Pacific Great Circle route, Unalaska vessel traffic and a couple of other areas. However, there is a large portion of the study area that is not covered by the MXAK AIS stations. Though no significant amount of vessel transit is believed to occur in the uncovered portions, traffic not captured by the MXAK AIS stations is not included in this study beyond some assumptions that needed to be made. The MXAK AIS coverage is discussed in more detail in Section 2.14 of this report. The AIS data shows the majority of the Aleutian Island vessel transits pass through on the North Pacific Great Circle Route, with approximately 70% Westbound from North America to the Far East. These findings are best estimates of actual vessel transits due to the live tracking nature of AIS systems. The data was also found to be consistent with the 2006 Vessel Traffic study (Ref. /2/) in the Aleutian Islands Subarea and subsequent MXAK vessel traffic reports. Additional data has been assembled from a range of different sources to supplement missing or incomplete information within the AIS data. The MXAK AIS coverage and the additional data sources used are discussed in more detail in Section 2.14 of this report. 2.1 Overview of Traffic Types and Patterns For the purpose of this study, the most recent year of available ship data was analyzed to establish a baseline. The analyzed period consisted of ship traffic from August 1, 2008 to July 31, This data represents the most complete full year of data available as it includes AIS data from the full compliment of AIS stations in the study area including the most recent monitoring station additions. The AIS data, which was found to provide best estimates of expected values regarding vessel transit frequencies, is applied for all discussions of vessel numbers and number of vessel tracks. Vessel average built year, average fuel oil carried and average cargo carried are best estimates extracted from a number of sources (see section for a description of these sources). Table 2-1 presents the number of vessels by type and the number of recorded tracks for each type during the analyzed period. EP September 2010 Page 4

9 Category Table 2-1: Number of Vessels per Traffic Type and Number of Tracks* Vessel Type Number of Vessels Percentage of Vessels by Type Number of Recorded Tracks Percentage of Recorded Tracks 1 Container Ships < 4500 TEUs % % 2 Container Ships > 4500 TEUs % % 3 Bulk Carriers < 60,000 DWT % % 4 Bulk Carriers > 60,000 DWT % % 5 General Cargo Vessels % % 6 LNG and Gas Carriers % % 7 Ro/Ro and Car Carriers % % 8 Cruise Ships % % 9 Crude Oil Carriers % % 10 Product Tankers % % 11 Chemical Carriers % % 12 Tank Barges * Cargo Barges* Fishing Vessels % 9, % 15 Tugs % % 16 Government Vessels % % 17 Refrigerated Cargo Ships (Tramp trade) % % 18 Other Vessels % % Total % 15, % * The vessel counts do not include small commercial fishing vessels or barges (cargo and tank) as these vessels do not carry AIS. TEU = Twenty foot Equivalents Unit; unit based on size of standard container used for shipping DWT = Dead Weight Tons Ro/Ro = Roll on / roll off EP September 2010 Page 5

10 Routes Best estimates of main traffic routes for the study area were identified from AIS data (Figure 2-1); the vessel routes in the figure extend beyond AIS coverage to illustrate the routes more clearly. Figure 2-1: Main Traffic Routes from AIS Data Nearly 16,000 vessel tracks were recorded in the study period. Of these, almost 70% were the result of domestic traffic (primarily fishing vessels). However, nearly 75% of the number of vessels that operated through or near the Aleutian Islands during the analyzed period consisted of deep draft vessels, the vast majority transiting via the North Pacific Great Circle Route. Over 70% of the tracks recorded by these deep draft vessels were westbound primarily from ports in the state of Washington and British Columbia, Canada to East Asia (People's Republic of China, Taiwan, Japan, North Korea and South Korea). These findings are best estimates and are consistent with previous findings in the 2006 Vessel Traffic in the Aleutians Subarea report conducted by Nuka Research & Planning Group (Ref. /64/). EP September 2010 Page 6

11 Vessel tracks are vessel movements within a series of AIS coverage areas within the study area. Once the vessel moves past the AIS coverage range, a four hour filter was applied to avoid double counting vessels that leave and reenter the AIS range quickly. Additional filters were applied to avoid double counting vessels in the transpacific route. A vessel counted transiting westbound on Unimak Pass, was not counted again if captured by the Adak Station. However, domestic vessels (in particular fishing vessels) would be counted twice if they departed the AIS range and remained out of that range for more than four hours. As such, a typical fishing trip was counted as two tracks, one track going to the fishing grounds and another track when it returned to port. Vessel Tracks - Seasonality Figure 2-2 illustrates the number of vessel tracks recorded by month. The spike in the month of February is caused by an increase in fishing vessel movements due to the start of the fishing season. Figure 2-2: Total Vessel Movements by Month Figure 2-3 illustrates the seasonal activity for traffic types that primarily use the North Pacific Great Circle Route. There is a significant spike in transits by container vessels during the month of EP September 2010 Page 7

12 February, which is attributed to Container Vessels > 4500 TEU. This spike is also seen in the 2009 MXAK Unimak Pass vessel transits summary report (Ref /6/). The only explanation the Pacific Maritime Shipping Association could offer was that there were some shifts in vessels and routes during that time frame; there is not any other plausible explanation (Ref /72/). Traffic modeling conducted for this study considers annual average results, and as such, any monthly spikes in traffic data will not significantly skew the results. Figure 2-3: Monthly Vessel Movements by Vessel Type Transiting the Great Circle Route Effect of Economic Recession It appears the global economic recession of 2008 and 2009 had an impact on the global shipping industry, with an estimated 12% reduction in world trade volume during 2009 (Ref. /67/). The impact of the global recession on vessel traffic through the Aleutians Islands is clearly seen on the figures provided by the MXAK in the Summary Report of AIS data Unimak Pass vessel transits (October 1, 2008 through September 30, 2009) (Ref. /68/). This data is summarized in Table 2-2. EP September 2010 Page 8

13 Table 2-2: Traffic Detected in Unimak Pass by the Marine Exchange of Alaska - Last 4 Fiscal Years Fiscal Year* Westbound Traffic Eastbound Traffic Total Percent Change % % % * The fiscal year is October 1 to September Container Vessels (Category 1 and 2) Container ships make up approximately 22% of the vessels that transit the study area and 12% of the total tracks recorded. The vast majority of container vessels transit the Aleutian Islands via the North Pacific Great Circle Route, with a few making weekly scheduled stops in Dutch Harbor. Container vessels move primarily containerized dry goods. Small quantities of hazardous goods may be carried inside the containers but not more than 10% of the total containers would have hazardous cargos; normally the percentage is much lower than that (Ref. /69/). Storage of hazardous goods in containers for marine transportation is governed by the IMO International Maritime Dangerous Goods (IMGD) Code. A discussion of what types of goods are carried in these containers is found in Section 3 of this report. Table 2-3 provides characteristics of container ships that travel the Aleutian Islands study area. Vessel Type Table 2-3: Traffic and Vessel Characteristics of: Container Ships Recorded Tracks Westbound Eastbound Undefined Average Built Year Average Fuel Oil Carried <4500 TEUs ,000 barrels >4500 TEUs ,000 barrels TEU = Twenty foot Equivalent Unit, unit base on size of standard container used for shipping On average, Container Ships of <4500 TEU were found to measure at 38,880 GT, while Container Ships of >4500 TEU average at 68,235 GT; these are best estimates determined from the particular vessels that were tracked by the AIS system. Of the Container Ships of both types sampled, no clear trend was observed for hull types with almost equal distribution between single hull, double hull and double bottom single side construction as recorded in the USCG Vessel Response Plan database (Ref./8/). Unlike tankers, double hull construction on vessels other than tankers is not intended to protect fuel tanks, but to strengthen the rigidity of the hull (Ref. /9/). In most cases, the fuel tanks are not protected by a double hull configuration in a non tanker vessel. However, new regulations require newly and future constructed vessels to protect fuel tanks with a double hull design (see discussion in Section ). EP September 2010 Page 9

14 Container ships for the most part operate on strict routes and schedules, and the routes include several ports, loading and offloading containers at each port. Figure 2-4 illustrates American President Lines (APL) Pacific Coast Express route (Ref. /10/), one of several APL routes that services Asia from North America and vice versa. This particular route includes weekly stops at Dutch Harbor. 2.3 Bulk Carriers (Category 3 and 4) Figure 2-4: APL Pacific Coast Express Route Bulk carriers make up approximately 41% of the vessels that transit the study area and 12% of the total tracks recorded. The vast majority of bulk carriers transit the Aleutian Islands via the North Pacific Great Circle Route. Only 2 bulk carriers were recorded entering Dutch Harbor during the analyzed period. Bulk Carriers move primarily grains and raw materials from the State of Washington and British Columbia ports to East Asia (Ref. /11/) (Ref. /12/). According to Blue Water Shipping, Inc., one of the primary bulk carrier operators in the Northwest United States, approximately 70% of the bulk carriers arriving from East Asia arrive empty, while 100% of the bulk carriers that depart to East Asia are loaded. The cargos are primarily corn, wheat, sorghum and other bulk commodities from Washington ports, and barley, wheat, canola, wood pellets, coal and agricultural products grains from British Columbia ports (Ref. /11/), (Ref. /12/), (Ref. /13/) and (Ref. /14/). EP September 2010 Page 10

15 Of special interest to the study and an exception to the above generality is bulk carrier traffic from Red Dog Mine located in Northwest Alaska in the DeLong Mountains of the Brooks Range. Zinc concentrate (1,009,800 tons) and lead concentrate (270,000 tons) was shipped from the mine during 2008 (Ref. /15/) in approximately 25 bulk carriers between the months of July and October. Approximately 6-7 of these vessels were destined for Asian markets, 6-7 to European markets, and the rest to British Columbia (Ref. /16/) (Ref. /17/). Table 2-4 provides characteristics of bulk carriers that travel the Aleutian Islands study area. Vessel Type Table 2-4: Traffic and Vessel Characteristics of Bulk Carriers Recorded Tracks Westbound Eastbound Undefined Average Built Year Average Fuel Oil carried <60,000 DWT ,500 barrels > 60,000 DWT ,500 barrels More than half of the sampled bulk carriers in the USCG Vessel Response Plan database (Ref. /8/) were double bottom single side hull; the remainder were primarily single hull and only a few reported a double hull construction design. 2.4 General Cargo Vessels (Category 5) General Cargo vessels make up less than 5% of the vessels that transit the study area and less than 2% of the total tracks recorded. Only one general cargo vessel was recorded entering Dutch Harbor during the analyzed period while the rest transited the North Pacific Great Circle Route. General cargo vessels carry primarily palletized grains, raw materials, machinery and other bulk items not carried by bulk ships, and roll-on/roll off vessels. Similar to bulk carriers, the vast majority of general cargo vessels are loaded as they transit from the State of Washington and British Columbia to East Asia, and most that arrive from East Asia are empty (Ref. /11/). Table 2-5 provides characteristics of general cargo vessels that travel the Aleutian Islands study area. Table 2-5: Traffic and Vessel Characteristics of General Cargo Ships Recorded Tracks Westbound Eastbound Undefined Average Built Year Average Fuel Oil Carried ,400 barrels Similar to container ships, the general cargo ships sampled in the USCG Vessel Response Plan database (Ref. /8/) presented no clear trend for hull types with almost equal distribution between single hull, double hull and double bottom single side construction. EP September 2010 Page 11

16 2.5 Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) carriers and other gas carriers (Category 6) Only three Liquefied Natural Gas LNG and gas carrier vessels were recorded transiting the area during the analyzed period. The Venus Glory, a Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) carrier with a capacity of 20,000 Metric tons of cargo, conducted one trip from the Ferndale, WA LPG Terminal to Taiwan (Ref. /18/). The other two vessels, the Polar Spirit and the Arctic Spirit, reported a number of voyages from Kenai, AK to Tokyo Japan (Ref. /19/). Since the Kenai LNG terminal is an export terminal, it is assumed that all the Westbound voyages were laden, while all of Eastbound voyages were in ballast with a small heel of LNG in the cargo tanks, as is customary for LNG vessels transiting in ballast (Ref. /20/). Table 2-6 provides characteristics of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) carriers and other gas carriers that travel the Aleutian Islands study area. Recorded Tracks Table 2-6: Vessel Type: LNG Average Built Westbound Eastbound Undefined Year Average Fuel Oil Carried ,630 barrels All three vessels in this category are listed in the USCG Vessel Response Plan database (Ref. /8/) as having double hulls. 2.6 Roll-On/Roll-Off and Pure Car Carriers (Category 7) A significant number of roll-on/roll-off vessels transit the Aleutian Islands. The vast majority (93 out of 98 vessels) are car carriers transporting vehicles from South Korea and Japan to destinations in British Columbia, Washington State, Oregon and California. Nearly two-thirds of the tracks recorded were westbound. In many instances, the car carriers travelled westbound in ballast; however, in some instances, forest products and other products are loaded in British Columbia for the return voyages to the East Asia (Ref. /11/). Table 2-7 provides characteristics of roll-on/roll-off and pure car carriers that travel the Aleutian Islands study area. Table 2-7: Traffic and Vessel Characteristics of Roll-On/Roll-Off and Car Carriers Recorded Tracks Westbound Eastbound Undefined Average Built Year Average Fuel Oil Carried ,500 barrels An equal distribution of hull types was observed for roll-on/roll-off and car carriers in the USCG Vessel Response Plan database (Ref. /8/), with the vast majority being of single hull or double bottom single side construction and the rest double hull. EP September 2010 Page 12

17 2.7 Cruise Ships (Category 8) A small number of cruise ships (13 different vessels) transit the Aleutian Islands. Most of these are once or twice a year discovery cruises from Washington State, to Alaska, Japan, and back. The exception to this is the M/V Tustumena, a mainline ferry/passenger part of the Alaska Marine Highway System which travels the Aleutian Chain including Akutan, Chignik, Cold Bay, False Pass, King Cove, Sand Point, and Unalaska/Dutch Harbor eight times a year during the summer months. The Tustumena recorded seven round trip passes via False Pass during the analyzed period. Table 2-8 provides characteristics of cruise ships that travel the Aleutian Islands study area. Recorded Tracks Table 2-8: Traffic and Vessel Characteristics of Cruise Ships Westbound Eastbound Undefined Average Built Year Average Fuel Oil Carried ,000 barrels Of the 13 passenger vessels, 7 have single hulls listed in the USCG Vessel Response Plan database (Ref. /8/), and 3 double bottom single sides. The rest are not specified. The Tustumena is listed as single hull with a WCD fuel capacity of 1,598 bbl. 2.8 Tank Ships (Categories 9, 10 and 11) A number of tank vessels transit the Aleutian Islands primarily westbound from ports in Washington State (Shell and Tesoro Refineries) and British Columbia (Chevron Burnaby Refinery). A number of ships categorized as chemical carriers may not necessarily carry hazardous chemicals in bulk. Liquid commodities in bulk that are imported and exported from these ports include: gasoline, jet fuel, other refined petroleum products, canola oil, vegetable oil, methanol, condensate, sodium chlorate, ethylene dichloride, mono ethylene glycol and caustic soda solution. Though some of the vessels are categorized as crude oil tankers, there was no indication crude oil is being exported in these vessels from the Washington refineries (Ref. /21/). It is known that during 2008 Canada exported an average of 1,300 m 3 per day of light and heavy crude oil in vessels to destinations other than the U.S. (Ref./22/). It is also known that crude oil is shipped from the Kinder Morgan Westridge petroleum terminal in Burnaby, BC, to foreign destinations including China; however, exact volumes of crude oil exports and destinations are not releasable due to confidentiality agreements (Ref. /23/), (Ref. /24/). In addition, refined products (such as jet fuel and gasoline) are exported from Washington State and British Columbia refineries to East Asia, but exact quantities are unknown. EP September 2010 Page 13

18 The Product Carrier Renda was recorded as visiting Adak twice during the analyzed period; the Renda is a product carrier with a capacity of 37,397 bbl and 3,680 bbl of fuel oil (Ref./8/) that delivers High Sulfur Diesel Fuel to Adak and sometimes Dutch Harbor from Russia or Asia. However, future deliveries from the Renda may be limited when Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel requirements are phased in beginning June 1, 2010, as Russia or Asia may not be developing Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel for exportation (Ref. /25/). Table 2-9 provides characteristics of tank ships that travel the Aleutian Islands study area. Vessel Type Recorded Tracks Table 2-9: Traffic and Vessel Characteristics of Tank Ships Westbound Eastbound Undefined Average Built Year Average Fuel Oil Carried Average Cargo Carried Crude oil carriers Product tankers Chemical carriers bbl = Barrels ,000 bbl 620,000 bbl ,000 bbl 220,000 bbl ,500 bbl 140,000 bbl All the transiting crude oil carriers listed in the USCG Vessel Response Plan database (Ref. /8/) are of double hull construction. The vast majority of product tankers and chemical carriers are listed as double hull construction with only five listed as having double bottom single side construction. 2.9 Tugs and Barges (Category 12, 13 and 15) Sixty-six different tugs were recorded during the analyzed period, with almost 1,000 tracks. The tug tracks captured by AIS do not follow specified routes like most other vessels, because they operate throughout the Aleutian Islands delivering petroleum products and freights. Approximately barge transits deliver 147 million gallons (over 3,500,000 bbl) of non-persistent oil for fuel and heating per year to communities along the Aleutian Islands (Ref./2/). All tugs have dual propulsion systems and do not tow more than one barge at a time. Most of the barges are towed behind in typical open water fashion (Ref. /26/). The barges often make multiple discharges during the course of a voyage, many times discharging and back loading at the different facilities (Ref. /27/). Since facilities often try to utilize the most profitable and or available means for deliveries, there are times when a barge is an area and could make a delivery of smaller quantities of less used products, like unleaded or jet fuel (Ref. /25/). Tugs and barges transit from refineries at Nikiski in Cook Inlet, Valdez in Prince William Sound, and Puget Sound to the various bulk fuel facilities throughout the Aleutians subarea. In addition, deliveries to bulk fuel facilities in the Bristol Bay, Western Alaska, Northwest Arctic, and North EP September 2010 Page 14

19 Slope (Ref. /64/) subareas also transit the Aleutians subarea. The quantities shipped to these sub areas are reported by a 2005 Statewide Hazardous Materials Commodity Flow Study. Occasionally however, a barge will lighter from tankers in the Norton Sound area and transport product back to the Aleutian Islands. Products delivered into the Aleutian Island subarea are routinely reloaded onto smaller barges for village deliveries. The same product could be lightered / loaded several times before it reaches its final destination (Ref./27/). Table 2-10 presents the findings from a hazardous materials commodity flow survey of marine transportation on the Aleutians subarea. (Ref. /28/). Sub-Area Table 2-10: Hazardous Materials Commodity Flow Survey Annual Delivered Volume Annual Number of Length of annual (millions of gallons) Tanker / Barge Transits Operating Season Western Alaska < months North Slope < months Bristol Bay months Aleutians Year-round Northwest Arctic < months Figure 2-5 illustrates the AIS tracks by tugs that transited the study area during the analyzed period. Figure 2-5: AIS Tracks of Tug Vessels (Category 15) During the Analyzed Period EP September 2010 Page 15

20 Most oil barges operating in Alaska are single hull, but double hulls are beginning to replace the single hulls. The larger >100,000 bbl single skin barges are being phased out over the next several years. They will be replaced by new build double hulls in the 75, ,000 bbl range due to draft constraints of double hull barges. The smaller single hull barges will be replaced closely in kind with double barges. Tank barges weighing less than 1,500 gross tons (approximately 21,400 bbl capacity) that operate in the waters of the Aleutian Islands are specifically exempted from the double-hull provisions of OPA 90 (Ref. /29/). The Alaska tank barges capacity range from 5,000 bbl to 156,000 bbl. The small barges may have as few as four tanks while the larger barges may have up to 24 tanks per barge. Typical tank arrangement is 2x2 to 4x6 with some minor variations. All coastwise barges transit in a single barge tow behind configuration (Ref. /26/), (Ref. /27/), (Ref. /30/), (Ref. /31/). There are five tank barge operators with approved Alaska Oil Discharge Prevention and Discharge Plans for operating in the Aleutians. Most operators include in their Plan barges that do not generally operate in Alaska. This allows operators the flexibility to utilize those barges without having to notify the Alaska Department of Environmental Conservation (ADEC) (Ref. /26/), as such, it is challenging to know how many single or double hulled barges operate in the Aleutians subarea at a given time. However, review of the Alaska Oil Discharge Prevention and Discharge Plans held by ADEC reveal that of 65 plans reviewed, approximately two-thirds (41 tank barges) were single hulled tank barges, with the largest having a capacity to carry 148,500 bbl. Eight or nine petroleum barges operate in the Aleutian Islands and an additional six to seven petroleum barges transit Unimak Pass in route to Bristol Bay and North West Alaska destinations. The barges operating in the Aleutians also transit to Bristol Bay and North West Alaska. Table 2-11 shows the number of petroleum barges and capacities that operate in the Aleutian Islands (Ref. /26/). Table 2-11: Characteristics Petroleum Barges Operating in the Aleutian Islands Sub Area Number of barges Capacity in Barrels Approximate # of Cargo tanks 1 < 5000 bbls bbls ,000-75,000 bbls , ,000 bbls > 100,000 bbls 20 Table 2-12 is a breakdown for additional petroleum barges that transit through Unimak Pass (Ref. /30/) and (Ref. /31/). EP September 2010 Page 16

21 Table 2-12: Characteristics Petroleum Barges that Transit via Unimak Pass Number of Barges Capacity in Barrels Approximate # of Cargo tanks bbls ,000-75,000 bbls , ,000 bbls Table 2-13 is a best estimate of single versus double hull tank barges with approved Alaska Oil Discharge Prevention and Discharge Plans to operate in the Aleutian subarea as registered with ADEC. Table 2-13 Barges with registered Alaska Oil Discharge Prevention and Discharge Plan allowed to operate in the Aleutian Region Storage Capacity (bbl) # Barges per Hull Type of Approximate # of Cargo tanks Single Hull Double Hull Total # Barges < 1, > 1,000 - <5, > 5,000 - < 10, > 10,000 - < 20, > 20,000 - < 30, > 30,000 - < 40, > 40,000 - < 50, > 50,000 - < 60, > 60,000 - < 70, > 70,000 - < 80, > 80,000 - < 90, > 90,000 - < 140, N/A > 140,000 - < 150, > 150,000 - < 160, >160, Barge totals EP September 2010 Page 17

22 In addition, barges are towed during the summer for deliveries of freight and/or fuel to more remote locations such as the Red Dog Mine area (Ref. /16/) and the North Slope (Ref. /17/), (Ref. /32/). Table 2-14 provides a list of non-persistent oils transported in Alaska and estimated percentage of total volume (Ref. /27/). Table 2-14: Quantities of Non-persistent Oils Shipped in the Aleutians Oil Type Percentage of Volume Approximate Volume (based on 3.5M bbl) Jet A fuel oil 23.8% 833,000 bbl JP-8 fuel oil 8.5% 297,500 bbl High Sulfur Diesel Fuel #2 (HSDF2) 29.2% 1,022,000 bbl Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel Fuel (ULSDF) 21.9% 766,500 bbl Pour Point depressants (PPD) 8.6% 301,000 bbl RUL 7.2% 252,000 bbl Aviation Gasoline (Avgas) 0.8% 28,000 bbl Total 100% 3,500,000 bbl Table 2-15 provides characteristics of tug vessels that travel the Aleutian Islands study area. Table 2-15: Vessel Type: Tugs Recorded Trips Westbound Eastbound Undefined Average length (ft) Tug vessels are typically of single hull construction; tugs that operate in the Aleutians can carry as much as 99,000 gal (2,357 bbl) of diesel fuel. A number of cargo barges operate in the Aleutians Islands sub area. During 2008 and 2009, approximately six cargo barges were towed each year via Unimak Pass carrying drilling equipment, production modules and miscellaneous cargo to destinations in the North Slope (Ref. /57/). In addition, from March to August, Northland Services Marine Transportation delivers supplies monthly by cargo barge. The items delivered include building and construction materials, heavy equipment and vehicles, grocery items, and fishing supplies to western villages to Dutch Harbor (Ref. /58/). EP September 2010 Page 18

23 2.10 Fishing Vessels (Category 14) The ground fish and crab fisheries of the Aleutians Subarea are the largest in North America in terms of value and poundage. The ground fish fishery occurs in two fishing areas: the Bering Sea/Aleutians (BSA) area and the Gulf of Alaska (GOA) area (Ref. /2/). Three hundred seventy-three (373) fishing vessels were identified in the study area as having AIS transponders. The vessel tracks from these vessels constitute by far the most vessel activity in the study area with a reported 9,343 vessel tracks, which represents nearly 60% of all vessel tracks. Figure 2-6 illustrates the AIS tracks of fishing vessels that transited the study area during the analyzed period. Figure 2-6: AIS Tracks of Fishing Vessels (Category 14) During the Analyzed Period The fishing vessels vary in size from less than 75 ft in length to the fish factory vessels that can exceed 375 ft. Three such factory mother ships operate in the Aleutians, the Ocean Phoenix, the Golden Alaska, and the Excellence (Ref. /33/). EP September 2010 Page 19

24 Ground Fishing Fleet Approximately 18 at-sea pollock catcher-processor vessels operate in the area and about twelve participate annually in the Bering Sea Pollock fishery. About twenty non-pollock ground fish catcher-processors (rockfish, flatfish and Atka Mackerel in the Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands) and about 30 hook and line Pacific Cod catcher-processors participate in the Bering Sea, Aleutian Islands, Gulf of Alaska Pacific cod, and turbot fisheries. The pollock fishery has two seasons: the A season begins on January 20 and ends around early March; the B season starts on June 10 and can go through the end of October (Ref. /33/). Crab Fishing Fleet The crab fishing fleet includes approximately 120 fishing vessels. These vessels typically range in length from 75 to 174 feet (Ref. /64/). Table 2-16 provides characteristics of fishing vessels that travel the Aleutian Islands study area. Table 2-16: Traffic and Vessel Characteristics of Fishing Vessels Recorded Trips Westbound Eastbound Undefined Average length (ft) 1 Average fuel oil carried 1 9, bbl 1 (Ref. /66/) 2.11 Government Vessels (Category 16) Nineteen (19) government vessels were in the study area during the analyzed period, recording 186 tracks. About half are USCG vessels and the rest were a combination of Canadian Navy and U.S. Navy, NOAA and Arctic research vessels, and State of Alaska Law Enforcement vessels. Because of the nature of their operations, no specific routes could be identified. Table 2-17: Traffic Characteristics of Government and Other Vessels Recorded Trips Westbound Eastbound Undefined More than half of the government vessels that transited the Aleutian Islands during the analyzed period were large. The largest were the: HMCS Protecteur (Canadian Navy) at 564 ft in length and a diesel fuel capacity of 11,030 bbl EP September 2010 Page 20

25 USCGC Healy at 420 ft in length and with a diesel fuel capacity of 29,069 bbl USCGC Polar Sea at 400 ft in length and diesel fuel capacity of 32,361 bbl Figure 2-7 illustrates the AIS tracks by government vessels that transited the study area during the analyzed period. Figure 2-7: AIS Tracks of Government Vessels (Category 16) During the Analyzed Period 2.12 Refrigerated Cargo Vessels (Tramp Trade) Category 17 Refrigerated cargo vessels (also referred to as reefers and/or trampers) operate in the study area, primarily in Dutch Harbor in tramp trade. These vessels call on Dutch Harbor and Alaska awaiting contract opportunities to load frozen fish products for carriage to East Asia. Forty trampers recorded 264 tracks, most in and out of Dutch Harbor. EP September 2010 Page 21

26 The average age of these vessels is the youngest in the deep draft category, averaging 20 years since built, with the oldest dating to 1964 and the newest built in The average service life of a deep draft vessel is 25 years. Recorded Trips Table 2-18: Traffic and Vessel Characteristics of Refrigerated Cargo Ships Westbound Eastbound Undefined Average Hull Type built year Average fuel oil carried Single Hull 7,400 barrels Figure 2-8 illustrates the AIS tracks by refrigerated cargo ships that transited the study area during the analyzed period. Figure 2-8: AIS Tracks of Refrigerated Cargo Vessels (Category 17) During the Analyzed Period EP September 2010 Page 22

27 An equal distribution of hull types was observed for refrigerated cargo vessels. Approximately half are registered in the USCG VRP database as single hull with the rest of double bottom single side construction Other Vessels (Category 18) Forty-four (44) other vessels operating with AIS were recorded in the study area during the analyzed periods. These are vessels that did not fit in the other categories or the service was not clearly identified. It includes a number of research vessels, a landing craft, offshore supply vessels, a drilling ship, and a high speed craft. Based on the vessel names and tracks, some of the unidentified vessels are likely to be fishing vessels. Table 2-19: Traffic Characteristics of Other Vessels Recorded Trips Westbound Eastbound Undefined Figure 2-9 illustrates the AIS tracks by other vessels that transited the study area during the analyzed period. EP September 2010 Page 23

28 Figure 2-9: AIS Tracks of Other Vessels (Category 16) During the Analyzed Period 2.14 Overview of Data Sources This section briefly reviews the main sources of traffic data and comments on the strengths and weaknesses of each data source. As most of the study area is open water away from the shore, there is no shore-based surveillance for most of the study area. This limits the quality of the traffic data that can be derived for some parts of the study area. Collection of shipping traffic data in the Aleutian Islands area is a challenging task because it involves multiple countries and ports, vessels in transit and or innocent passage, and numerous maritime activities in a large area. As such, information from multiple sources is required to provide the necessary comprehensive understanding AIS Data Automatic Identification System (AIS) data was made available under contract to the project team by the Marine Exchange of Alaska AIS is a transponder based system. Where fitted, functioning EP September 2010 Page 24

29 and fully updated, the ship transmits data that can be received by other ships and by shore-based facilities. The AIS data received from the MXAK was consolidated into a single file of data for all the coverage shown in Figure 2-10 for each day. In all other respects, the data was as recorded. Significant effort was needed to analyze the AIS data to turn it into data that could be used for the AIRA. AIS Receivers Nine receiving AIS stations provide the coverage in the study area, all operated and maintained by the MXAK. The stations are located at: King Cove Nelson Lagoon Sand Point False Pass Akutan Ballyhoo Mtn. Dutch Harbor Captain s Bay Dutch Harbor Mt. Ugadaga Dutch Harbor Adak Saint Paul Island (Operational from August 2008) Saint George Island (Operational from August 2009) The MXAK AIS sites are overall operational approximately 95% of the time. An area of emphasis is Unimak Pass where the MXAK has provided considerable redundancy with sites in Dutch Harbor (3), Akutan (2), False Pass and King Cove, providing an estimated 99% coverage of all vessels passing through Unimak Pass. Vessels that sail south of Unalaska are not always observed depending on the route they take and whether the Mt Ugadaga site is operational or not. The same goes for the Adak station, however, continuous additional coverage and improvements conducted by MXAK is allowing greater coverage in the study area. (Ref./25/).The estimated geographical AIS coverage of these MXAK stations is shown in Figure 2-10 (as of September 2009). The area of AIS coverage is relatively small (spatial coverage being not more than 10% of the total study area) compared to the total study area shown in Figure 1-1. However, the MXAK continues to expand AIS coverage of the area, with additional capability installed since the end of the reporting period. Discussion with Port of Metro Vancouver and Vessel Traffic Service Puget Sound indicated that 100% of deep draft vessel traffic that enter and depart the port has an operational AIS transponder (Ref. /13/ and /14/). With the lack of any available AIS vessel transponder reliability data (the USCG Navigation Center does not maintain such data), 100% Vessel AIS transponder reliability is assumed for vessels transiting with AIS transponders. EP September 2010 Page 25

30 Figure 2-10: AIS Recording Areas with Estimated Spatial Coverage The requirements of AIS are defined by Regulation 19 of SOLAS Chapter V Carriage requirements for ship borne navigational systems and equipment. This sets out the navigational equipment to be carried on ships, according to ship type. In 2000, IMO adopted a new requirement (as part of a revised Chapter V) for ships to carry AIS. The regulation requires AIS to be fitted aboard all ships of 300 gross tonnage and upwards engaged on international voyages, cargo ships of 500 gross tonnage and upwards not engaged on international voyages and passenger ships irrespective of size built on or after 1 July It also applies to ships engaged on international voyages constructed before 1 July 2002, according to the following timetable: Passenger ships, not later than 1 July 2003; Tankers, not later than the first survey for safety equipment on or after 1 July 2003, and Ships, other than passenger shops and tankers, of 50,000 gross tonnage and upwards, not later than 1 July An amendment adopted by the Diplomatic Conference on Maritime Security in December 2002 states that ships, other than passenger ships and tankers, of 300 gross tonnage and upwards but less than 50,000 gross tonnage, will be required to fit AIS not later than the first safety equipment survey after 1 July 2004 or by 31 December 2004, whichever occurs earlier. Ships fitted with AIS shall maintain AIS in operation at all times except where international agreements, rules or standards provide for protection of navigational information. EP September 2010 Page 26

31 AIS Data Content Regulation 19 requires that AIS shall: Provide information, including the ship s identity, type, position, course, speed, navigational status and other safety related information, automatically to appropriately equipped shore stations, other ships and aircraft; Receive automatically such information from similarly fitted ships, and Exchange data with shore-based facilities. The following different information types, identified as static, dynamic or voyage related, are valid for different time periods and thus require different update rates: Static information describes the ship (ship identifier, ship type, etc). This information (almost) never changes and is thus likely to be accurate. Dynamic information is provided by the ship s on-board systems, such as its position, speed, bearing, rate of turn, etc. This information changes from minute to minute, but because it is updated automatically, is usually accurate. Voyage related information, such as destination port, cargo type carried, etc, has to be entered manually by the ship s crew. This data may or may not be present and/or accurate. The fields provided in the raw AIS data included: Base station time stamp Ship name MMSI Latitude Longitude Navigational status Course over ground Speed over ground Heading IMO (IMO number) Call sign Type of ship and cargo Draught Destination However, it should be noted that not all fields were completed or contained applicable information, as discussed below. EP September 2010 Page 27

32 AIS Data Quality The AIS data is unquestionably the best source of ship position data in the AIRA area. It is not, however, a complete source of traffic information for the AIRA for the following reasons: As shown in Figure 2-10, the geographical coverage is incomplete. The AIS ship identification codes do not provide the level of detail required to allocate ships to all vessel categories shown in Table 2-1 above, or to the level of detailed required by the RFP. To a great extent each individual ship in the AIS data had to be individually researched and a look-up table constructed to provide a fuller picture of the data of interest for this study. The AIS ship identification code does not contain information required for the study (e.g., vessel built dates, cargos, fuel or cargo capacity, hull type, etc.). A significant number of targets captured by AIS have incorrect or missing information. In most instances, missing data was found and appropriate tables completed. In the few instances where the data was not found, assumptions were made, or data was generically categorized. The cargo type carried is missing in roughly two-thirds of all data records. Where the cargo type is included it may not be correct, up to date (e.g. it may say the ship is laden when it is inballast, as this data update requires crew intervention), or the information provided is too general to be applicable to use in the study Data from Shore-Based Facilities Shore-based facilities, including ports, harbors and oil/gas or ferry terminals, located within the study area can provide information on cargos traded, the trading volumes, the number of ship movements, and the directionality of trades (imports or exports). However, shore-based facilities usually cannot provide data on ship routes away from the port area nor on ships on transit passage through the area (where the ships do not normally dock at shore-based facilities in the study area). For this study, the ports of Seattle, Washington, and Vancouver, British Columbia and respective US Coast Guard and Canadian Coast Guard were contacted with a request for additional data to complement and validate the AIS data received from the Marine Exchange f Alaska. The data request included a list of vessels transiting from the West Coast of North America to and from East Asia. The request was for cargos carried, port of origin and destination, and if the vessels were transiting laden or in ballast. Only the Port of Seattle responded with ship logs providing vessel identification and dates entered and departed from the port. However, cargo information and port of origin/destination were not available. The Port of Vancouver operations provide useful information along with additional contacts. VTS Puget Sound also provided information over the phone that provided valuable assistance to complement missing data. EP September 2010 Page 28

33 Data from other Sources A number of other sources, web sites and publications provided additional information that was used in the study. DNV maintains good relationships with shipping companies and shipyards and regularly updates internal databases with ship building trends, ship designs and general status of the world fleet. Where appropriate, this information was used to fill in gaps in data, validate the data, and provide balance to the data collection activity. In addition, DNV Research and Innovation studies of oil and gas trends and Arctic area shipping provided valuable information to the study concerning ship design and ship trading patterns. The U.S. Coast Guard Vessel Response Plan (VRP) database (Ref. /8/) was consulted to determine the quantity of fuel and cargo oil products carried by the traffic types that transit the Great Circle Route. All tank vessels and a large majority of non-tank vessels submit plans or basic information to the U.S. Coast Guard, including Worst Case Discharge (WCD) for fuel and cargo oil and often the hull type. For LNG and gas carriers, crude oil carriers, product tankers and chemical carriers, all available relevant data was obtained from the VRP database. Because of the large number of other vessels, only a random sample (no less than 30% of the traffic type population during the analyzed period) of vessels were researched in the VRP database for container ships, bulk carriers, general cargo vessels, roll-on/roll-off and car carriers, cruise ships, and refrigerated cargo vessels. Vessel age, gross tonnage, verification of ship type and, as needed, shipping company and class society information were retrieved from or provided by public authorities and industry organizations including the U.S. Coast Guard, all the major class societies, oil companies, International Marine Forum, the European Maritime Safety Agency (EMSA) and many other organizations. There are many pockets of significant knowledge about shipping in the Aleutian Islands, at least in part because many people in the area make a living from the sea. Some of these pockets of expertise are represented on the Aleutian Islands Advisory Team, US and Canadian federal agencies, the States of Alaska, Washington and the Province of British Columbia. Others have defined roles in the Aleutian Islands. Finally there are experts who are less easy to identify and solicit for information. The AIRA project team reached out to many or attempted to use data from these experts where appropriate and cost effective to do so. EP September 2010 Page 29

34 2.15 Vessel Categories Three different but similar lists of vessels were identified in the proposal as subjects for the study. None of the lists was all inclusive so the AIRA Risk Analysis Team combined the three lists and identified 17 different vessel types. However, based on the findings from the ship traffic analysis and concerns addressed during the September 1-3, 2009 AIRA Management and Advisory team meetings in Dutch Harbor, an additional category was added for Refrigerated Cargo vessels in the tramp trade. Refrigerated cargo normally would be grouped under general cargo vessels (category 5). Virtually all category 5 vessels that transit the Aleutians do so via the North Pacific Great Circle Route. The vast majority of refrigerated cargo vessels operate to and from Dutch Harbor or Adak. In addition, these vessels are generally smaller and older than the other general cargo vessels. Table 2-20 identifies the 18 vessel traffic type categories and explains the general usage of these vessels. Vessel Type Table 2-20: Vessel Type and General Usage Traffic Type Description Container ships of less than 4, ft equivalent units (TEUs) Refers to vessels designed to carry their entire load in Twenty Foot Equivalent Units (TEU) intermodal containers. In this case capable of transporting less than 4,500 containers. In general, applies to Container ships of less than 60,000 DWT (~50,000 GT) Container ships of more than 4,500 TEUs Refers to vessels designed to carry their entire load in Twenty Foot Equivalent Units (TEU) intermodal containers. For this category capable of transporting 4,500 containers or more. In general, applies to Containers ships of 60,000 DWT or more (for container ships ~50,000 GT) Bulk carriers of less than 60,000 tons deadweight tonnage (DWT) Refers to ocean-going vessels used to transport bulk cargo items such as ore or food staples (rice, grain, etc.) and similar cargo including bulk cargos as iron ore, coal, bauxite/alumina, phosphate, steel products, cement, petcoke, forest products, fertilizers, sulphur and other dry bulk cargos. For this category bulk carriers of less than 60,000 DWT (for bulk carriers ~35,000 GT) Bulk carriers of more than 60,000 tons DWT Refers to ocean-going vessel used to transport bulk cargo items such as ore or food staples (rice, grain, etc.) and similar cargo including bulk cargos as iron ore, coal, bauxite/alumina, phosphate, steel products, cement, petcoke, forest products, fertilizers, sulphur and other dry bulk cargos. For this category bulk carriers of more than 60,000 DWT (for bulk carriers ~35,000 GT) General cargo vessels Refers to ocean-going multi-purpose vessels, designed to handle and stow a variety of freight. This may include forest products, manufactured goods, heavy equipment, vehicles, machinery, bagged goods, steel and food products, and containers. Some specialized vessels combine general cargo with heavy lift capabilities for transporting large, awkwardly shaped components to refinery, chemical processing and other plant construction projects, refrigerated cargo and specialized cargo Liquefied natural gas (LNG) carriers and gas carriers Refers to vessels built for the dedicated carriage of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) and, other vessel dedicated to the carriage of liquefied, compressed Or pressurized gases EP September 2010 Page 30

35 Vessel Traffic Type Description Type Roll-on/Roll-off vessels and pure car carriers 7 Refers to vessels designed to carry wheeled cargo such as automobiles, trucks, semi-trailer trucks, trailers or railroad cars that are driven on and off the vessel on their own wheels. Cruise ships 8 Refers to vessels designed to carry large numbers of passengers for pleasure voyages. Crude oil carriers (laden and in ballast) 9 Refers to vessels designed for the bulk transport of unrefined crude oil. Product Tankers (laden and in ballast) 10 Refers to vessels designed for the bulk transport of refined petrochemicals (Gasoline, diesel, etc.) Product tankers are generally smaller than crude oil carriers. Chemical carriers 11 Refers to vessels designed for the bulk transport of chemicals. Tank barges (laden and in ballast) 12 Refers to non self propelled vessels designed to transport Liquid cargo such as petrochemicals and that need be towed by tugboats or pushed by towboats Cargo barges 13 Refers to non self propelled vessels designed to transport dry cargo such as ore or food staples (rice, grain, etc.) and that need be towed by tugboats or pushed by towboats Fishing vessels 14 Refers to vessel used to catch fish in the sea. For the purpose of this study, fish factory vessels are included in this definition 15 Refers to vessels designed to maneuver other vessels by pushing or towing them. Government vessels 16 Refers to governmental owned vessels not in the commercial trade (USCG, Canadian, NOAA, State, etc.) Refrigerated Cargo Ships (Tramp trade) Refers to general cargo vessels used to transport perishable commodities which require temperaturecontrolled transportation such as fruits, meat, fish, vegetables, dairy products and other foodstuffs. For the 17 purpose of this study it makes reference to refrigerated cargo ships engaged in tramp trade in the Aleutians Islands study area Other vessels 18 Refers to other vessels not categorized above (research, drill ships, etc.) EP September 2010 Page 31

36 3 MOVEMENT OF COMMODITIES 3.1 Current Movements of Commodities The North Pacific Great Circle Route is a major international shipping route, used as direct access to the West Coast of North America by East Asian ports and vice versa. In order to gather the data necessary to estimate the full picture of commodity movements, multiple databases were consulted. It is understood reporting standards are rarely consistent within any two given commodity databases. Therefore, as multiple commodity databases are integrated, care was given when utilizing and combining data. The commodity types which are estimated for the present and over the study period are cargo oils, containers, bulk cargos, bulk chemicals and other commodities. In order to best identify and describe the commodities, a commodity trade classification scheme called the Harmonized System (HS) is utilized to group commodity types. The current commodity movement through the Aleutian Islands is discovered using two references, USA Trade Online (Ref. /21/) and Industry Canada (Ref. /35/). The important assumption which links the commodity trade to the Aleutian Islands is that when the US West Coast Ports and Canada s Vancouver Port trades with East Asian Countries, the Aleutian Islands are the ideal route of passage for international trade. It is assumed that the commodity Import and Export trade distribution is similar to the distribution seen actually transiting the Aleutian Islands. Therefore, all exports from North America are assumed to represent the best estimates of commodity flow of westbound traffic and the imports to North America are assumed to represent the best estimates of eastbound traffic commodity flow. This assumption is strongly supported by the direct route which the Aleutian Islands provide for international trade. Table 3-1 describes the commodity exports and imports for Western US Ports (including Alaska) and Major East Asia Nations for the period August 2008 July The USA Trade Online database compiles this data based on HS commodity codes. A customized query segregated commodity types of interest. HS Codes 27, 28, 29, 31, 32, 36 and 38 are identified as HS Code categories which contain potential Hazardous Substances given they are released into the environment in sufficient quantities. Commodity Flow Between US Western Ports and Major Asian Countries By HS Code Table 3-1: Commodity Flow Summary % Total Percentages: Aug July 2009 (1 Year) Imports Exports % Containerized Out of Total % Total % Containerized Out of Total Total - ALL Commodities (00-99) 100.0% 80.9% 100.0% 32.8% Total - Selected Commodities (27,28,29,31,32,36,38) 11.1% 28.8% 31.9% 10.6% EP September 2010 Page 32

37 Figure 3-1: and Figure 3-2: depict the contribution of identified 2-digit commodity codes which contain potentially hazardous substances. It is important to recognize that US Trade data and Canadian Trade data were not found in the same data source. Each source reported the trade data in a different format, the US Trade Online data reported in tonnage and US dollars and Industry Canada reported in Canadian dollars or US dollars. Tonnage and revenue measurements are not directly comparable. Therefore, the Canadian commodity breakdown by HS codes is done for a very basic understanding of whether or not Canadian trade data is predominately similar to that of US trade data. A quick comparison of Figure 3-1: and Figure 3-2: reflects the assumption that US trade and Canadian trade of Hazardous Substances are similar for the purposes of this study. This assumption is supported by the proximity of the two countries and their participation in the same global market region. Figure 3-1: Current Western Canada Imports and Exports with Major East Asian Nations EP September 2010 Page 33

38 The charts within Figure 3-1: represent the percent tonnage for commodity trade between Western US Ports and Major Asian Nations alone. Therefore, the tonnage numbers alone do not depict the commodity weights moved through the Aleutians, but they do illustrate the contribution of Mineral Fuels to the overall commodity trade. This is important to depict given the assumption that US and Canadian Imports and Exports are similar in commodity type contributions. An example of this detail is found in Figure 3-2: which illustrates the contribution of each HS Commodity Code 27 (Mineral Fuels) compared to the overall export volumes from Northwestern US to East Asia (e.g. 7.0% 2713 Petroleum Coke, Petroleum Bitumen represents 7.0% of all export trade volume by tonnage between the two regions) between August 2008 and July % 2.4% 1.2% 1.1% 0.5% 87.9% 2713 Petroleum Coke, Petroleum Bitumen & Other Residues 2710 Oil (not Crude) From Petrol & Bitum Mineral Etc Petroleum Gases & Other Gaseous Hydrocarbons 2707 Oils Etc From High Temp Coal Tar; Sim Aromatic Etc 2701 Coal; Briquettes, Ovoids Etc. Mfr From Coal All Other Commodities Figure 3-2: HS Code 27 Import and Export Contributions 3.2 Current Movement Non-Native/Invasive Species As described in the sections above, the majority of the large intercontinental vessels (bulk carriers, LNG/gas carriers, tank ships, cargo vessels, RoRo vessels, and container vessels) transit through the area, predominantly on the North Pacific Great Circle Route. These passing vessels present a negligible risk of introducing non-native species to the Aleutian Islands under normal circumstances; however, a grounding or near-shore collision of a vessel passing through the Unimak Pass or close to one of the islands is a potential pathway for introduction. Due to the initial scope and resources of the Phase A study, the Management Team directed the Risk Analysis EP September 2010 Page 34

39 Team to focus the risk of non-native species to evaluation of introduction of rats. Although other non-native species may also be of concern (e.g., aquatic species), based on previous incidents the potential introduction of rats to the islands presents a priority concern for the Phase A study. A very small number of container vessels and bulk carriers, plus a single general cargo vessel, were recorded as making stops in Dutch Harbor during the analyzed period. In addition, the product tanker Renda was reported to visit Adak Island during the traffic study. Unalaska Island and Adak Island both already have an established, breeding population of Norway rats (Rattus norvegicus) so vessels calling at only these ports do not present a risk of introducing invasive rat species to these islands. As described in Section 2.7, the ferry M/V Tustumena travels the Aleutian Island Chain including Akutan, Chignik, Cold Bay, False Pass, King Cove, Sand Point, and Unalaska/Dutch Harbor eight times a year during the summer. Unalaska and Akutan already have established breeding populations of rats, but the other ports are in areas that are currently rat-free and the ferry therefore represents an existing potential route for the movement of invasive rat species from infested islands to non-infested islands. Refrigerated cargo ships also regularly transit between Dutch Harbor, Adak and Alaska and pass close to rat-free Akun and Tigalda islands to the west of Unimak pass and Unimak Island, Deer Island and the Alaska Peninsula to the east. The greatest risk of transfer of rats from infested to non-infested islands is from smaller vessels, such as tugs, barges, government vessels, and fishing vessels, that frequently travel between islands. The AIS analysis showed that tugs, barges and government vessels frequently transit across the Unimak pass from the infested islands of Unalaska, Amaknak, Sedanka and Akutan to the non-infested areas of Akun and Tigalda Islands, Unimak Island, Deer Island and the Alaska Peninsula. These vessels also operate around St Paul Island, which is currently free from rats and has advanced protocols to prevent rat invasion, but which does have a population of non-native house mice (Mus musculus) on one area of the island. Tugs and barges also transit from the Port of Adak which has an existing breeding population of Norway rats, to neighboring Kagalaska Island and Great Sitkin Island to the east, which also have existing rat populations and pass very closely to Kanaga Island to the west which is currently free from rats. As described in Section 2.10, fishing vessels operate in two main areas of the Aleutian Islands: the Andreanof Islands around Adak in the west (Tanaga Island to Amlia Island) and the islands on either side of the Unimak Pass in the east (Unalaska Island to the Alaska Peninsula). The AIS data showed vessel tracks around the coasts of these islands, and fishing vessels travelling from islands with an existing breeding population of rats pose a risk to the currently rat-free islands in these areas. 3.3 Future Movements of Commodities Forecasting future commodity movements across regions of the world can be approached a multitude of ways all of which include some sort of prediction of future economy performance of the regions of interest. This study in particular calls for a different type of assessment in the sense that its forecast not only depends on regional and country specific economic performance, but also, EP September 2010 Page 35

40 that it should be tailored towards those economies which currently or futuristically utilize the Aleutian Islands study area as a trading route. The approach taken to understanding this forecasted movement is the outlook provided by Freight Analysis Framework (FAF) database which utilizes Global Insight s macroeconomic, regional, inter-industry, and intrastate forecast models (Ref. /36/). These economic forecasting models are built and maintained with a common framework and perspective that provides comprehensiveness, consistency, and detail unique for freight transportation forecasting. Most importantly, this means that the resulting detailed freight flow forecasts are derived in a manner consistent with the path of the economy at a national, regional, and sub-state level. Growth rates of U.S. imports and U.S. exports, by commodity, from Global Insight s World Trade Service World Trade Model (WTM) are applied to the FAF2 base year international data; this allows the analyst to obtain forecast commodity flows between regional markets using the Standard Classification of Transported Goods (SCTG) protocol. A short discussion of the FAF database is presented in Section 3.4 of this report. Figure 3-3, Figure 3-4 and Figure 3-5 illustrate best estimate forecasts of commodity movements through the study region. In order to stay aligned with the FAF forecast and its macroeconomic forecast model, the increase in commodity flow is displayed in five year increments. The base year for the forecast was in 2002, which was before the economic downturn. Thousands of Short Tons US Imports from Asia (excluding Machinery) Chemical prods. Mixed freight Base metals Year Animal feed Base metals Cereal grains Chemical prods. Coal Coal-n.e.c. Crude petroleum Fertilizers Gasoline Live animals/fish Logs Metallic ores Mixed freight Natural sands Newsprint/paper Nonmetal min. prods. Nonmetallic minerals Other ag prods. Paper articles Figure 3-3: US Imports from East Asia (Excluding Machinery) EP September 2010 Page 36

41 US Imports from Asia (Machinery Only) Thousands of Short Tons Machinery Year Figure 3-4: U.S. Machinery Imports from East Asia 40 Millions of Short Tons Year Animal feed Base metals Cereal grains Chemical prods. Coal Coal-n.e.c. Crude petroleum Fertilizers Gasoline Live animals/fish Logs Machinery Metallic ores Mixed freight Natural sands Newsprint/paper Nonmetal min. prods. Nonmetallic minerals Other ag prods. Paper articles Waste/scrap Wood prods. Figure 3-5: West Coast Exports to East Asia for the 25-Year Study Period (FAF Forecast) EP September 2010 Page 37

42 3.3.1 Forecast Analysis Imports East Bound Traffic Figure 3-3 and Figure 3-4 illustrate the projected increase in commodity imports to Western US Ports from East Asia. The largest commodity classification is Machinery. In the context of SCTG classification codes used for FAF purpose, Machinery includes a wide range of commodities. Vehicles (As transported by Roll-On/Roll-Off and Car Carriers) and associated machinery is included in this category. When analyzed separately, vehicle tonnage contribution is 10-11%. Expected Machinery increase, therefore, will be the largest driver for vessel frequency increase over the next 25 years. The next three commodities which have large expected increases are Chemical Products, Mixed Freight and Base Metals Exports West Bound Traffic Figure 3-5 illustrates the projected increase in commodity exports to East Asia. Chemical Products exports are expected to increase significantly over the next 25 years between East Asia and the Western US Ports. Cereal grains and other Agricultural (Ag) Products are also projected to significantly increase in tonnage over the next 25 years. It is important to note that this forecast quantitatively depicts only the commodity growth between Western US Ports and Major Asian Countries. But, given the assumption that Canadian and US Import and Export trends correlate very similarly due to market proximities, we can assume that the growth of the combined economies will be similar in size and characteristics. This data is used to understand the future shipping capacity and frequency needs for commodities during the study period. 3.4 Data Sources Table 3-2 lists the databases consulted to conduct the commodity analysis, the data sources are explained further below Table 3-2: International Commodity Trade Data Sources Data Source Study Use AIS Data Vessel Tracks USA Trade Online Current Commodity Data for the US Industry Canada Current Commodity Data for Canada Freight Analysis Framework Commodity Forecast Data EP September 2010 Page 38

43 Automated Identification System (AIS) Cargo Data Automated Identification System historical data was accumulated through the Marine Exchange of Alaska as described in Section There are different types of AIS systems which identify the geographical locations of ships with compatible AIS transponders. The AIS system in the Aleutian Islands mostly uses time division multiple access in the Very High Frequency (VHF) maritime mobile band. The typical information collection structure for this type of AIS system is recommended in an International Telecommunication Union (ITU) Recommendation (Ref. /37/). The AIS data fields received from the Marine Exchange of Alaska can be described through this recommended practice. The quality of the type of cargo data entered and transmitted by vessels via AIS is as reliable as the care mariners give to enter the data. After analyzing the vessel type and cargo classification data fields, it is apparent that consistency and quality of data within the AIS system records were not adequate to discover cargo movement with the desired level of confidence. Therefore, multiple data sources were consulted to draw assumptions and complete the commodity movement estimation through the Aleutian Islands. USA Trade Online USA Trade Online (Ref./21/) is an official source of U.S. export and import statistics created in collaboration between STAT-USA and the U.S. Census Bureau s Foreign Trade Division. USA Trade Online provides current and cumulative U.S. export and import data on export and import commodities using the HS commodity classification. Freight Analysis Framework version 2.2 (FAF) The Freight Analysis Framework (FAF) (Ref. /36/) is a Commodity Origin-Destination Database is a product of the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), developed in cooperation with the Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) through contracts with Oak Ridge National Laboratory, MacroSys Research and Technology, Global Insight, and Battelle. FAF estimates commodity flows and related freight transportation activity among states, sub-state regions, and major international gateways. It also forecasts future flows among regions and relates those flows to the transportation network. FAF includes an origin-destination database of commodity flows among regions. FAF contains projected commodity flow data ranging from 2010 to 2035 in five-year intervals. In this commodity flow data, en route foreign-to-foreign trade via the United States is excluded. The FAF sources include data developed by the Census Bureau, U.S. Department of Commerce, and the Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS), U.S. Department of Transportation; Foreign Waterborne Cargo data developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and a host of other sources. EP September 2010 Page 39

44 Data provided by the FAF include a projected commodity movement data covers the years from 2010 to 2035 with a five-year interval prepared by Global Insight a company that provides comprehensive economic and financial analysis proprietary economic and freight modeling packages. FAF statistics may not match those in other mode-specific publications primarily due to different definitions that were used to avoid double counting. Industry Canada Trade Data Online (TDO) The TDO database (Ref. /35/) is populated by Statistics Canada and from the U.S. Census Bureau, then repackaged for online use by Canada s business community, policy makers and the academic community. TDO provides the ability to generate customized reports on Canada's and U.S. trade in goods with over 200 countries. Its database has the option to report the historical commodity trade statistics of Canada based upon HS codes. This data is used to help understand the flow of goods to and from Canada. 3.5 Approach The USA Trade Online Database is used as the sole source to provide the US s current commodity movement data through queries on export and import data based on the following: Selected foreign countries US West Coast Ports which are visited by ships transiting the Aleutian Islands August 2008 to July 2009 data Short Weight Tonnage, and HS Commodity Codes of Interest (4-digit HS code level) The Industry Canada Trade Data Online (TDO) database was used to report similar export and import data between Canada s British Columbia ports, primarily Vancouver, with East Asian trade partners. The level of detail attained by the Industry Canada TDO database was to the 2-digit HS code level. Once these two query reports were performed, a summation was performed to determine the level of contribution of each HS commodity code of interest. These codes of interest represent a commodity type which could potentially be highly hazardous to the environment if it were to be released during a shipping casualty. The codes identified were: 27 - Mineral Fuel, Oil Etc.; Bitumin Subst; Mineral Wax 28 - Inorg Chem; Prec & Rare-earth Met & Radioact Compd 29 - Organic Chemicals 31 - Fertilizers 32 - Tanning & Dye Ext Etc; Dye, Paint, Putty Etc; Inks EP September 2010 Page 40

45 36 - Explosives; Pyrotechnics; Matches; Pyro Alloys Etc 38 - Miscellaneous Chemical Products Figure 3-6 summarizes the general approach used in this study to analyze commodity movement. Figure 3-6: Approach to Determine Current Commodity Movements 3.6 Assumptions The following assumptions guided the analysis: In route foreign-to-foreign commodity movement is not identified or forecasted. Relevant climate change impacts to future commodity trade volumes are assumed to be considered within Global Insights proprietary economic models. Peak oil s impact to future commodity trade volumes is assumed to be accounted for within Global Insight s proprietary economic models as well. Canada s Import and Export commodity type distributions will increase similarly to that of the US over the next 25 years. 3.7 Alternative Scenarios - Recession Forecast sensitivities regarding the effects of the near term economic recession are a concern when analyzing any long term forecast especially one which was performed previous to the recession itself. Observing the recession changes through alternative macroeconomic forecasts the US Congressional Budget Office (Ref. /38/) provides and updates on an annual basis illustrates the EP September 2010 Page 41

46 gravity and long term effects of the recession on future nominal gross domestic product (GDP) outlooks. Figure 3-7 compares two forecasts on nominal GDP estimates one performed January 2006 for and one performed in August Congressional Budget Office GDP Forecasts Nominal GDP Year CBO 2007 CBO 2009 Figure 3-7: US Congressional Budget Office GDP Outlooks Table 3-3: illustrates the GDP forecast comparison, it illustrates the effects of the recession upon the macroeconomic models which the CBO utilizes to produce their forecasts. The 2009 outlook contains a definite deep and persistent GDP shortfall from the outlook generated previous to the recession. A compounding affect of the economic model leads to large mid-term impacts of small growth differences but they seem to subside long-term. Table 3-3: GDP Changes between CBO 2007 and 2009 Outlooks Percentage Change in Year Gross Domestic Product % % % % % % % % % EP September 2010 Page 42

47 The important application of this observation is that this recession has undeniably affected the GDP size and growth on a long term scale. These affects have and will continue to be experienced by the commodity movements through the Aleutian Islands. The complete effects of the recent economic downturn (which was unforeseen for the 2002 FAF forecast) are still uncertain because of the unknown timing and strength of economic recovery. However, it is quite clear that near-term commodity transportation demand is lower than pre-recession baselines. 3.8 Future Movement Non-Native/Invasive Species Although the number of large vessel movements is expected to increase between now and 2034 (see section 5), this will not necessarily translate into an overall increase in the risk of invasive species introductions. The largest proportion of vessel tracks recorded during the AIS study were from fishing vessels and the nature of these were also the category of vessels that most frequently transited between islands with existing populations of invasive rat species and those that do not. The future risks of invasive species introductions are therefore closely tied to the size of the fishing fleet (see Section ). Improved safety measures that will reduce the risk of vessel accidents will contribute to a reduced risk of invasive species introductions. Conversely, if weather patterns are significantly altered due to climate change, this could increase the likelihood of rats surviving and establishing breeding populations on islands in the future as fewer individuals will be killed by the harsh climate. Meanwhile the native species of the Aleutian Islands are likely to be adversely affected by climate change, even in the absence of rats, which means that the ability of populations to recover from predation by (or competition with) rats will be reduced and native populations could decline more rapidly than in the present climate. EP September 2010 Page 43

48 4 FLEET FORECAST This portion of the study examines trends in ship sizes in the foreseeable future through the year Emphasis is placed on vessels transiting the Great Circle Route through Unimak Pass, and the amount of bunker fuel these ships are likely to carry. This section also lists and discusses the impact of all proposed statutory conventions impacting ship design through the year A forward look predicting the passage of rules and regulations beyond 2018 is also included. 4.1 Ship Building and Market Trends Shipping and the need for marine transportation of goods between trading nations depends on the economic wellbeing and overall health of the world economy. The type, number, and size of ships sailing the oceans is a direct response to the trading existing between the nations of the world at any given moment. The shipping industry has expanded rapidly since the 1980 s and exploded after the turn of the century. Figure 4-1 illustrates the growth of the global world fleet new constructions since the turn of the century (Ref. /39/). Figure 4-1: World Total New Vessel Order Book EP September 2010 Page 44

49 From 2000 through 2008 as supply struggled to meet demand, freight rates rose dramatically as consumer confidence grew and world financial stress decreased. World s shipping fleet capacity utilization approached nearly 100% in As a result, extremely attractive charter rates could be had, and ship owners not willing to be caught without vessels in the rising world economy, pushed the shipyards into high production. Figure 4-2 illustrates vessel capacity utilization vs. freight rates in 2008 (Ref. /39/). Capacity Capacity Utilization Utilisation vs. Freight vs Freight Rates rates Freight rate index Average running Capacity Utilization (%) Figure 4-2: Vessel Capacity Utilization vs. Freight Rates in 2008 During this period, consumers were spending, financial stress levels were falling, and as a result many investments on shipping were made and ship orders remained strong. However, the recent economic downturn has directly impacted every aspect of the shipping industry. After the world credit crises of November/December of 2008, and the resulting loss of credit lines, industrial production began to fall, which directly and negatively affected shipping, though some recovery is expected in 2010 and beyond (Ref. /39/). Figure 4-3 illustrates the industrial production trend of the world s most industrialized economies, according to the European Central Bank (ECB). EP September 2010 Page 45

50 % Change Industrial Production Euro Area Japan Russia United States China India Source: ECB Figure 4-3: Largest Economies Industrial Production Trend As expected, the drop in industrial production directly impacted world economic growth which saw a large drop in Figure 4-4 illustrates economic growth during the last 10 years and its expected recovery during 2010 and 2011 as presented by IHS Global Insight. Figure 4-4: World Economic Growth EP September 2010 Page 46

51 Figure 4-4 needs some clarification regarding cumulative effect. The positive 1.9% growth in 2010 must be added to the negative 2.5% contraction in The year 2010 will then correctly reflect a negative 0.6% growth, or an overall contraction rather than a positive indication. The net growth in 2010 must be added to the projection for Hence, the total projected economic growth for 2011 is expected to be about 3.0%, rather that the indicated 3.6%; It is also believed that shipping capacity utilization may further lag world recovery by several years due to the massive expansion of vessels from 2000 through Current laid up or idle vessels per class are as follows: Container vessels over 560 ships corresponding to TEU Bulk Carriers around 200 vessels Oil tankers 10% of the Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) and Suezmax vessels are being used as storage Car carriers 50 vessels removed from the market old tonnage to be scrapped In summary, there are around 1200 vessels in cold or hot lay-up, and these excess vessels could be underutilized until 2015 barring a dramatic upturn in the world economic market. The current economic downturn, lack of available credit, and extended recovery will be a mitigating factor delaying increases in the numbers and size of large oceangoing vessels for the long term (Ref. /39/). 4.2 General Trend in Ship Sizes Over the years and until very recently, oceangoing vessels have continued to increase in size as ship-owners sought to take advantage of economies of scale. Because of the upward trend in ship sizes of every class, tanker, bulkers, container ships, gas carriers, etc, it might be assumed that ship sizes will continue to trend upward. However, this may not be a reasonable assumption. The expected trend is that ship sizes have reached their size potential due to limitations. Surprisingly, technology isn t the overall driver limiting ship size. There are several large shipyards with dry docks having the capacity to build oceangoing vessels almost twice the length and breadth of those now in the fleet. For example, the world s largest dry dock was completed July and is located at Changxing Island in Dilian, China. Its physical size is 460 meters long by 425 meters wide, and the facility is able to accommodate the construction of two 320,000 DWT ship simultaneously. However, larger vessels imply larger drafts. The actual limitation for large ship sizes is that the waterways in most of the world s busiest ports are draft restricted. Figure 4-5 is a representative list of the World s Largest Ports based on their waterways maximum operational drafts (Ref. /39/). EP September 2010 Page 47

52 Figure 4-5: World s Largest Ports and Waterway Draft Limitations There are very large ships currently operating in the world - ships too large for most ports. Ultra Large Crude Carriers, Ultra Large Ore Carriers, and giant container ships exist in small numbers as ship owners realized that these ultra large ships (usually built to service a single trade) could not be easily chartered if the initial project were completed or abandoned. There is a move away from ultra large vessels, as owners reassess markets and current plans for port expansions. EP September 2010 Page 48

53 The VLCC is a popular size for an oil tanker. It draws about 25 to 28 meters and certain oil terminals in Saudi Arabia, Europe, and Japan are designed to accommodate these large ships. However, most VLCCs call on offshore oil ports where they connect and discharge into a single buoy mooring designed for deep draft vessels. Conversely, as the world container fleet is upgraded with larger ships, major ports are facing onshore challenges of receiving deeper draft vessels. While a typical Panamax containership could be accommodated by a 35-foot (10.6 meter) channel, the new generation of post-panamax containerships sized greater than 7000 TEUs requires a channel depth between 42 and 52 feet (about 13 to 16 meters). Most of the world busiest ports simply are not accessible by these vessels (Ref. /41/). However, as shown in Figure 4-5, the ports of Seattle and Vancouver, the two primary destinations for vessel traffic to and from East Asia transiting the Aleutian Islands, have waterway depths that could accommodate these larger vessels. Many port authorities around the world are announcing upgrade plans. Some, like the cities of New York and Philadelphia are working closely with the Panama Canal Authority to time the opening of their next generation, deep water ports with the completion of the third set of locks in Panama. The new lock chambers will be 427 meters (1,400 ft) long, 55 meters (180 ft) wide, and 18.3 meters (60 ft) deep. Vessels with a beam of 49 meters (160 ft) and a Length Overall to 366 meters (1,200 ft) and a draft up to 15 meters (50 ft.) will be allowed to transit. This is the equivalent of a container ship carrying about 12,000 TEU. However, the ports along the East Coast of the US will likely not go deeper than 50 ft (Ref. /42/). Regarding the size ship expected to transit Unimak Pass in the foreseeable future, there are only three major ports on the West Coast capable of receiving the latest ship on the drawing board, namely the container ports located near Long Beach, Seattle and Vancouver. The upgrade at the Panama Canal represents the future, but upgrades to ports on the West Coast of North America are not foreseen as they have already depths to accommodate the new ship sizes, e.g. the ships currently moving through Unimak Pass may be a preview of anticipated ship size over the next 25 years. Although ship sizes for oil tankers and container carriers may creep slowly upward in specified trades, size will be limited to existing, planned port infrastructure upgrades. These upgraded ports will not drive any significant ship size increases within the next decade or two, which maintains the current risk profile of large vessels transiting Unimak Pass. Vessel size distribution, particularly for container vessels, is expected to continue to grow with a larger share of container vessels of > 4,500 GT in the future. The Institute of Ship Analysis (SAI) forecasts that the average growth in the 8,000+ TEU size segment is expected to be 29% per year, in the 5,000-7,999 TEU and 3,000-4,999 TEU size segments 6.5% each per year and in the remaining <3,000 TEU size class 1.5% per year. These figures, however, are for the global fleet, from which, as of late 2009, 40% consisted of container ships of >5,000 TEU. Of the container fleet transiting the Aleutians during the study period, 68% are container ships of >4,500 TEUs, which represent a larger share of large container ships than the global fleet. It is assumed that the present transpacific trade and the North America West Coast already utilize and have infrastructure to handle these large vessels to represent this trend. EP September 2010 Page 49

54 4.2.1 Trends in Individual Ship Classes Container ships The EMMA MÆRSK (Figure 4-6) is currently the world s largest container vessel, measuring 397 meters long, 56 meters wide, a draft of 15.5 meters and able to carry 11,000 TEU. This ship may represent the largest in her class for quite sometime due to the world wide economic slow-down, delays in dredging channels to deeper depths, and the current lack of new building contracts Bulk Carriers Figure 4-6: The Emma MÆRSK The Berge Stahl (Figure 4-7) is the largest bulk carrier in the world. The ship has length of meters and beam is meters. The bulk carrier has a draft of (75 ft) meters and deadweight of 364,767 metric tons. The ship was built by Hyundai Heavy Industries in the year The Berge Stahl is a fit for purpose dedicated ore carrier and there are only two ports with water deep enough to handle her, Terminal Maritimo de Ponta da Maderia (loading port Brazil) and Europort (discharge port Rotterdam). These ports have a draft of 78 ft and the ship must transit on the high tide only. EP September 2010 Page 50

55 Figure 4-7: The Berge Stahl Car Carriers / Roll-on/Roll-offs The world s largest car carrier, the M/V Faust (Figure 4-8) is capable of transporting 8,004 compact sedans on 13 decks. The Gross Tonnage of the vessel is 71,583 metric tons, with a length of 228 meters and a beam of 33 meters. The maximum draft of m/v Faust is 11.5 meters and the Air Draft of the vessel is 52 meters. Rather than the draft of the vessel itself, the sheer size of the terminal required to service the typical car carrier could be a major constraint to increasing roll-on/roll-off ship size in most established ports. Currently, ship owners are reducing fleets, retiring vessels early, and replacing them with new ordered vessels which they must take. For this reason car carriers are not expected to increase in size over the foreseeable future. EP September 2010 Page 51

56 Oil Tankers Figure 4-8: M/V Faust The Ultra Large Crude Carrier (ULCC) oil tanker Jahre Viking was the largest ship afloat in At meters Length Overall when fully laden, she sits 24.6 meters in the water, too deep to enter most of the world s major ports. Currently named the Knock Nevis, the ULCC is now moored and serving as a Floating Storage and Offloading (FSO) unit in the Persian Gulf. In October of 2008, an oil tanker with the world s largest carrying capacity delivered. The Hua San is capable of carrying 318,000 tons of crude oil. It is 333 meters long, 60 meters wide, 30.5 meters high a has a design draft of 21 meters. 16 such tankers are on order, but the current generation of ULCCs is smaller than the previous generation built more than 20 years ago. Generally speaking, oil tankers are sized for flexible trading and become safer with each iteration of the amended IMO Convention. IMO, SOLAS, and other statutory rules will be addressed in the following sections of this report Barges Tank barges weighing less than 1,500 gross tons that operate in the waters of the Aleutian Islands are specifically exempted from the double-hull provisions of OPA 90. A tank barge of 1,500 gross tons will have a cargo capacity of roughly 900,000 gal (21,400 bbl). Improvements in barge to tug coupling technologies have increased barge control and safety. Overall, single hull tank barges are being replaced by double hull barges. Barges serve a purpose to transport smaller quantities of oil than trough and to locations that do not require large shipments and may be limited in water depth. As such, growth in size of tank barges is not foreseen Fishing Vessels Currently the Optimum Yield regulation limits the annual Bering Sea/Aleutian Island harvest of roundfish to 2 million metric tons. Even though the annual Acceptable Biological Catch limit is sometimes into the 3 million mt range, the North Pacific Fishery Management Council (NPFMC) is limited to setting the allowable harvest limit (TAC) at no more than 2 million mt. In addition, the NPFMC has established a number of rationalization programs and a very effective license limitation program that limits effort, both in the groundfish and the crab fisheries. The outcome is that there will be no new effort, or vessels that will enter the BSAI fisheries. The only method is for a vessel to be retired and can be replaced, or is lost at sea and then replaced. It is expected that the conservative management of fisheries quota, the harvest will now, and for the foreseeable future, will continue to be quite close to 2 million metric tons of groundfish. The crab stocks might go up or down, but because that fishery is managed under an IFQ system, no new, or more vessels are expected (Ref. /33/). EP September 2010 Page 52

57 Based on this information, the current Bering Sea fishing fleet is adequate in size, it is anticipated that as vessels reached their service life, they will be replaced with much more modern vessels; as this happens, a reduction in the number of active vessels may be expected. 4.3 IMO and Other Statutory Conventions The International Maritime Organization (IMO) is a specialized agency of the United Nations which is responsible for measures to improve the safety and security of international shipping and to prevent marine pollution from ships. It is also involved in legal matters, including liability and compensation issues and the facilitation of international maritime traffic. It was established by means of a Convention adopted under the auspices of the United Nations in Geneva on 17 March 1948 and met for the first time in January When IMO first began operations its chief concern was to develop international treaties and other legislation concerning safety and marine pollution prevention. By the late 1970s, however, this work had been largely completed, though a number of important instruments were adopted in more recent years. IMO is now concentrating on keeping legislation up to date and ensuring that it is ratified by as many countries as possible. This has been so successful that many Conventions now apply to more than 98% of world merchant shipping tonnage. The Organization consists of an Assembly, a Council and four main Committees: the Maritime Safety Committee; the Marine Environment Protection Committee; the Legal Committee; and the Technical Co-operation Committee. There is also a Facilitation Committee and a number of Sub- Committees support the work of the main technical committees (Ref. /46/) The 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) comprises 320 articles and nine annexes, governing all aspects of ocean space, such as delimitation, environmental control, marine scientific research, economic and commercial activities, transfer of technology and the settlement of disputes relating to ocean matters. Part XII of the Convention (articles 192 to 237) addresses Protection and Preservation of the Marine Environment and gives basic obligations to prevent, reduce and control pollution from land-based sources; pollution from sea-bed activities subject to national jurisdiction; pollution from activities in the Area; pollution by dumping; pollution from vessels; and pollution from or through the atmosphere (articles 207 to 212). The Convention entered into force on 16 November As of 5 January 1999 the Convention is ratified by 130 States. Some of the key features of the Convention relevant to prevention of marine pollution are the following: Coastal States have sovereign rights in a 200-nautical mile exclusive economic zone (EEZ) with respect to natural resources and certain economic activities, and exercise jurisdiction over marine science research and environmental protection; EP September 2010 Page 53

58 Coastal States have sovereign rights over the continental shelf (the national area of the seabed) for exploring and exploiting it; the shelf can extend at least 200 nautical miles from the shore, and more under specified circumstances; All States enjoy the traditional freedoms of navigation, overflight, scientific research and fishing on the high seas; they are obliged to adopt, or cooperate with other States in adopting measures to manage and conserve living resources; States bordering enclosed or semi-enclosed seas are expected to cooperate in managing living resources, environmental and research policies and activities; States are bound to prevent and control marine pollution and are liable for damage caused by violation of their international obligations to combat such pollution; and All marine scientific research in the Economic Exclusion Zone (EEZ) and on the continental shelf is subject to the consent of the coastal State, but in most cases they are obliged to grant consent to other States when the research is to be conducted for peaceful purposes and fulfils specified criteria. The US has yet to ratify the convention but it will be coming up for vote later in Although free passage is a right of transiting marine traffic, there may be room under UNCLOS to perform assessments on ships with poor oil pollution prevention records before they pass through the 200 mile zone. However, enforcement for the foreseeable future will be applied through the Conventions contained in the IMO, and these should be considered as the statutory regulations governing marine transport through Unimak Pass for some time to come Current IMO Rules and Future Amendments All current and impending rules and conventions regarding pollution, ship safety, and other marine operations will have a positive environmental impact on the Aleutian Islands, and in particular ships on transit passage through Unimak Pass. The following section details Conventions and Amendments of particular impact on the marine transport through the Pass, and their scheduled ratification (Ref. /44/) SOLAS Double Hulls Subsequent to the grounding of the oil tanker EXXON VALDEZ in 1989, the U.S. introduced the Oil Pollution Act of 1990 (OPA 90) which included provisions for the double hulling of oil tankers. OPA 90 required new oil tankers to be double hulled and established a phase out scheme for existing single-hulled tankers. Older single-hulled tankers were phased out starting in 1995 and the final date for phase out of all single-hulled tankers was International Maritime Organization (IMO) followed suite and in 1993 through an amendment to Annex I of MARPOL introduced double hull requirements for oil tankers requiring tankers to be double hulled and existing tankers to be phased out. This scheme, however, is similar, but not identical, to the OPA 90 scheme. EP September 2010 Page 54

59 For the purpose of this study it is assumed all vessels through or near the Aleutian Islands are traveling to or from Western Canada or United States ports. Canada has adopted the revised MARPOL requirements for the phase out of single hulled tankers on international voyages in waters under Canadian jurisdiction, but applies OPA 90 provisions for Canadian tankers on domestic voyages or trading to the US and for US tankers trading in waters under Canadian jurisdiction (Ref./45/). Thus, the lesser of the two requirements, MARPOL, should be applied for tank vessel transiting the Aleutian Islands. The phase out scheme of any particular single-hulled tanker was based upon its year of build, its gross tonnage and whether it had been fitted with either double bottoms or double sides. Table 4-1 illustrates the MARPOL Phase out scheme (Ref. /46/). Table 4-1: MARPOL Phase Out Scheme of Single Hull Tankers Category of oil tanker Date or year Category 1 - oil tankers of 20,000 tons deadweight and above carrying crude oil, fuel oil, heavy diesel oil or lubricating oil as cargo, and of 30,000 tons deadweight and above carrying other oils, which do not comply with the requirements for protectively located segregated ballast tanks (commonly known as Pre-MARPOL tankers Category 2 - oil tankers of 20,000 tons deadweight and above carrying crude oil, fuel oil, heavy diesel oil or lubricating oil as cargo, and of 30,000 tons deadweight and above carrying other oils, which do comply with the protectively located segregated ballast tank requirements (MARPOL tankers) Category oil tankers of 5,000 tons deadweight and above but less than the tonnage specified for Category 1 and 2 tankers 5 April 2005 for ships delivered on 5 April 1982 or earlier Anniversary date in 2005 for ships delivered after 5 April April 2005 for ships delivered on 5 April 1977 or earlier Anniversary date in 2005 for ships delivered after 5 April 1977 but before 1 January 1978 Anniversary date in 2006 for ships delivered in 1978 and 1979 Anniversary date in 2007 for ships delivered in 1980 and 1981 Anniversary date in 2008 for ships delivered in 1982 Anniversary date in 2009 for ships delivered in 1983 Anniversary date in 2010 for ships delivered in 1984 or later The double hull requirements have already yielded dividends in marine environmental protection. In June 2009, the Tank vessel HS Elektra ran aground in the Canal Trinidad in southern Chile. It was fully loaded with crude oil and underwater surveys revealed that the outer hull had been torn EP September 2010 Page 55

60 along the entire length of the ship. The ballast tanks were flooded and the ship listed dangerously to one side. The tank ship was successfully lightered and safely towed to a yard and repaired. The undamaged inner tank contained all of cargo. A similar incident was recorded off the coast of Galveston, Texas, in March 2009 when the SKS Satilla, hit a submerged rig that was lost during Hurricane Ike. In both instances, not a drop of oil was spilled avoiding costly pollution events. Doubled Hulled Bunker Tanks One of the later rules greatly reducing the possibility of a spill is the increased protection of the bunker (fuel oil) tanks as follows: The 2006 Amendments to the Revised MARPOL Annex I (Addition of new regulation 12A on oil fuel tank protection) states At the 54th session (March 2006) MEPC adopted the new regulation 12A of the revised MARPOL Annex I on Oil fuel tank protection. The regulation will be applicable to all ships with an aggregate oil fuel capacity of 600 m3 (approximately 3,960 bbl) and above: - for which the building contract was placed on or after 1 August 2007;or - in the absence of a building contract, the keels of which are laid or which are at a similar stage of construction on or after 1 February 2008; or - the delivery of which is on or after 1 August The regulation will also apply to major conversions carried out with milestone dates for the conversion similar to the above dates. The regulation will require that oil fuel tanks greater than 30 m 3 (approximately 198 bbl) are to be protected by a double hull arrangement. Alternatively, to a double hull arrangement with boundary distances as given in regulations 13A.6, 7.8 is a double hull arrangement complying with the accidental oil fuel outflow performance as set out in regulation 13A.11. Emergency Towing Arrangements on Tankers SOLAS regulation II-1/3-4: This convention has been extended to ships other than tankers 20,000 GT, and will be in force on 1 January MSC 84 also approved Guidelines for Owners/Operators on preparing Emergency Towing Procedures (MSC/Circ.1255) All ships shall be provided with a ship-specific emergency towing procedure applicable as follows: All (i.e. new and existing) passenger ships, not later than 1 January 2010; Cargo ships constructed on or after1 January 2010; and Cargo ships constructed before1 January 2010, not later than1 January 2012 Note: Only tankers are required to carry Emergency Towing Arrangements. All other ships shall have an emergency towing procedure. EP September 2010 Page 56

61 International Code on Intact Stability 2008 The 2008 IS Code was adopted by at MSC 85 by res. MSC.267(85) and will be implemented by amendments to SOLAS regulation II-1/5 (res. MSC.269(85) Annex 1) and the Load Line Convention reg. I/1 and I/3 (res. MSC.270(85)) and enters into force on 1 July Safety of Navigation ECDIS The mandatory carriage of Electronic Chart Display and Information Systems (ECDIS) for different ship types and sized constructed in the period 2012 to 2018 was adopted at MSC 86. From 1 January 2011 ECDIS is accepted as meeting the chart carriage requirements. Use of electronic navigational charts may provide an estimated risk reduction potential of up to one-third on selected routes for power grounding scenarios. (Ref. /62/) International Maritime Solid Bulk Cargos (IMSBC) Code The Code of Safe Practice for Solid Bulk Cargos (BC Code), adopted as a recommendatory Code in 1965 and updated at regular intervals since then, will be replaced by the mandatory IMSBC Code adopted at MSC 85 by res. MSC.268(85). The IMSBC Code will be implemented by amendments to SOLAS Ch. VI entering into force on 1 January Enhanced Surveys for Bulk Carriers and Oil Tankers (Res. A.744(18)) (ESP Guidelines) By 1 January 2010, the enhanced survey requirements for bulk carriers and oil tankers have been extended also to cover bulk carriers having double-side skin construction by including a new part B in Annex A of Res. A.744(18) The new part B is primarily based on the International Association of Classification Societies (IACS) Unified Requirements UR Z10.5. The attendance at the Survey Planning meeting has been modified to include an appropriate qualified representative appointed by the master or Company MARPOL Prevention of pollution during transfer of oil cargo between oil tankers at sea (STS) A new chapter 8 to MARPOL Annex I was adopted at MEPC 59, applicable from 1 April 2012 to all oil tankers of 150 gross tonnage and above engaged in transfer of oil cargo between oil tankers at sea (STS operations). Such tankers shall hold an STS operations plan approved by the Administration, and must notify the coastal state 48 hours in advance if operation takes place inside the EEZ. Note: There are many other MARPOL conventions under review but the emphasis is now on air pollution and recycling, which is interesting but beyond the scope of this study. EP September 2010 Page 57

62 4.4 OPA 90 As discussed above, since tank vessels that transit through or near the Aleutian Islands do not only transit to the United States but Canada as well, the requirements applicable to Canada (IMO MARPOL as discussed above) should be considered. However, OPA 90 also includes an exemption of the phase out requirements applicable to tank barges that operate in the Aleutian Islands. The exemption is better described in the Transportation Research Board of the National Academies Special Report 293 (Ref. /63/). Double-Hull Requirements in Alaskan Waters Following the Exxon Valdez spill in Prince William Sound, the U.S. Congress passed OPA 90, which mandated the phase out of single-hull tankers and tank barges. As stated in 33 CFR (n)(5), however, tank barges weighing less than 1,500 gross tons operating in the waters of the Aleutian Islands are specifically exempted from the double-hull provisions of OPA 90. (A tank barge of 1,500 gross tons will have a cargo capacity of roughly 900,000 gallons.) This was considered to be a practical solution to the delivery of oil to small, remote villages with confined waterways and extremely shallow water depth, which may not be able to sustain double hull configured barges because of their size, weight, and reduced carrying capacity during ice-free, high low water navigation periods. As a result, there are currently single-hull tank barges moving petroleum products within the Aleutian region that have no mandated retirement date.) 4.5 Industry Risk Reduction Measures In addition to regulations adopted by IMO and government imposed regulations, maritime industry initiatives may also influence vessel operations in an effort to assist in the reduction of risks. Industry efforts to reduce risk have brought about several programs that guide and motivate vessel owners and operators towards continuous improvement of their management systems. One of the most widely used programs is the Tanker Management and Self Assessment (TMSA) compliance program introduced by the Oil Company International Marine Forum (OCIMF). The TMSA guidelines are built on the foundation of the International Safety Management (ISM) Code but provide much more comprehensive and clearer guidance to vessel operators on what is required in a Safety Management System using Key Performance Indicators (KPI) and Best Practice Guidance, lessons learned, and Root Cause Analysis amongst other. The goal for the vessel charterers is to distinguish between those organizations who embrace the ISM Code in its true spirit and those who aim at fulfilling its minimum requirements. Vessel charterers should require those companies that want to carry their cargoes to comply with TMSA guidelines, as this will further reduce risk. TMSA as a commercial requirement can provide a robust conformance of guidelines which may have adverse economic impact for vessel owners that do not conform. Though created with the oil tankers in mind, the concept of TMSA also applies to all tank and non-tank vessels. Other guidelines such as the Offshore Vessel Management Self Assessment (OVMSA) protocol is under development and the first draft of Exxon Mobil s Geophysical Contractor Management and Self Assessment (GCMSA) protocol has been issued. EP September 2010 Page 58

63 The application of TMSA and other similar industry led protocols can positively influence the reduction of marine transportation risks. (Ref /70/, /71/) EP September 2010 Page 59

64 5 TRAFFIC FORECAST Future transpacific traffic patterns are estimated based on current traffic patterns (discussed in Section 2) and the commodity forecast (Section 3). The Traffic Forecast is based upon best estimated data found in previous sections. Transpacific Traffic Figures 5-1 and 5-2 illustrate the growth in Tracks or frequency each ship type is forecasted to transit the Aleutian Islands based upon expected commodity trade growth. As discussed in section 4.2, vessel size distribution, particularly for container vessels, is expected to continue to grow, which would also affect the cargo capacity distributions. Because of the uncertainty of ship size distribution growth for the different type of vessels, for this forecast, the cargo capacities were kept equal to present date distributions. Therefore, a direct correlation is assumed between commodity movement increase and the necessary numbers of trips required for each ship type. An exception for this transpacific trade forecast approach is the refrigerated cargo vessel ship type as it is correlated to the increase or decline of commercial fishing off the coast of Alaska Tracks Year Container Ships < 4,500 TEUs Container Ships > 4,500 TEUs Bulk Carriers < 60,000 DWT Bulk Carriers > 60,000 DWT General Cargo Vessels LNG and Gas Carriers RoRo's Crude Carriers Product Tankers Chemical Carriers Figure 5-1: Forecasted West Bound Traffic by Ship Category EP September 2010 Page 60

65 Tracks Year Container Ships < 4,500 TEUs Container Ships > 4,500 TEUs Bulk Carriers < 60,000 DWT General Cargo Vessels LNG and Gas Carriers RoRo's Product Tankers Chemical Carriers Figure 5-2: Forecasted East Bound Traffic by Ship Category Distributing how each ship type contributes to the shipment of each commodity was done methodically based upon present day ship type contribution found in the AIS data analyzed in Section 2. Therefore, by linking each ship type to eligible commodity types which it could have on board, the forecast depicts present day cargo loading schemes, as well as, ship capacity levels generally maintained within the AIS data timeframe, August 2008 July The approach to the identification of future traffic patterns is described in further detail in the Methodology section below. Domestic Traffic: Fishing Fleet Forecast and Refrigerated Cargo Vessel Forecast Currently the Optimum Yield Regulation limits the annual Bering Sea harvest of groundfish to two million metric tons a year. Even though the annual Acceptable Biological Catch limit is sometimes in the three million ton range, the North Pacific Fishery Management Council (NPFMC) is limited to setting the allowable harvest limit to around two million tons. EP September 2010 Page 61

66 In addition, the NPFMC has established a number of 'rationalization' programs and a very effective license limitation program that limits effort, both in the groundfish and the crab fisheries. The outcome is that there is no forecasted expectation for the Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands (BSAI) to allow an increase of permitted fishing vessels or additional tonnage in its regulated fisheries. The only way for a vessel be to added to the permitted fishing vessel list is for a current vessel to be retired and replaced or to have a vessel lost at sea and then replaced. It is expected that the conservative management culture of the fisheries will continue to be in place maintaining the harvest limitations close to two million metric tons of groundfish per year. The crab stocks may rise and fall, but because the fishery is managed under the Individual Fishing Quota (IFQ) Management system, no new or additional vessels are expected to affect traffic in the Aleutian Island study area. Based on this information, the current Bering Sea fishing fleet is adequate in size and is anticipated to be progressively updated as vessel replacements grow over time. These newer vessels will be equipped with much more modern technology and fishing capabilities, and as this happens, a reduction in the number of active vessels may be experienced (Ref. /33/). The Refrigerated Cargo Vessels that operate in the Aleutians in the tramp trade primarily transport frozen goods to East Asia markets. It is assumed the Refrigerates cargo Vessel fleet is at capacity. If there is no increase in fishing limits in the foreseeable future, it assumed the Refrigerated Cargo vessel will remain at it current capacity impacted only by upgrades by newer and more modern vessels. Domestic Tank Barge Forecast As described in Section 2, tank barges that operate in the study area often make multiple discharges during the course of a voyage, this make it difficult to trace tank barge and cargo movements, It is known that approximately 147,000,000 gallons of oil per year is delivered by tank barge, to provide domestic oil supplies for heating and transportation, it is then assumed the delivery of oil supplies ca be directly correlated to the growth of population in the Southwest Region of Alaska. Under this assumption, the State of Alaska Population Forecast (Ref. /47/) growth scenarios for the Southwest Region of Alaska were used to forecast the growth in oil deliveries to the region (Figure 5-3), which includes the Aleutians East Borough, Aleutians West Census Area, Bethel Census Area, Bristol Bay Borough, Dillingham Census Area, Lake & Peninsula Borough and Wade Hampton Census Area. EP September 2010 Page 62

67 Figure 5-3: Southwest Region of Alaska The State of Alaska population growth forecast presents three scenarios identified as high growth, medium growth and low growth (Figure 5-4). 60,000 50,000 40,000 Population 30,000 20,000 10, Year High Growth Medium Growth Low Growth Figure 5-4: Population Growth scenarios in the Alaska Southwest Region through 2030 EP September 2010 Page 63

68 For the purpose of this study and due to the lack of other indicators, the high population growth forecast was used, in order not to under-estimate traffic growth for the domestic oil delivery forecast. All of the oil transported by barge in the study area consists of non-persistent oil. Figure 5-5 illustrates oil deliveries forecast in the study area through 2030 based on the state of Alaska population high population growth forecast for the Southwest region. 153 Aleutians Area Barge Commodity Trade - High Population Growth Scenario Millions of Gallons of Non-Persistent Oil Year Figure 5-5: Oil Shipment Forecast Based on a High Population Growth Scenario The increase every 5 years is directly correlated to the high growth scenario results found in the Alaska Population Reference of the Southwest Region as stated above. This forecast ends at 2030 due to the timeframe set during the Alaska population forecast. It would not be appropriate to extrapolate the data past 2030 without reconfiguring and remodeling the economic region. The domestic oil shipment forecast above is based on forecasted population growth alone and it does not consider any energy conservation measures of geo-political changes. 5.1 Transpacific Forecast Approach The traffic pattern today consists of traffic lanes (defined as a traffic type and a route, plus additional data, as described in Section 2. In the future, some traffic lanes may no longer be used EP September 2010 Page 64

69 because, for example, the trade may stop. In addition, in the future new traffic lanes may become established because of a new development or trade. The volume of trade along each traffic lane depends on a range of factors but is principally driven by: Human population; Human population distribution, and Economic activity (Gross Domestic Products). Current commodity trading volumes have been identified and each commodity associated with a traffic type, or in some cases with a traffic lane or a group of traffic types. These factors were considered, modeled and used to forecast commodity movement in the Freight Analysis Framework (FAF) data described in Section 3. The current volume of commodities traded is transported by an average ship size for each ship type and an identified number of ship movements within the AIS data, described in Section 2. The likely change in the average size of ships for each ship type over the next 25 years was identified by consultation with ship designers and shipping companies in Section 4. The findings of this consultation resulted in the discovery that although average ship sizes have increased over the last 10 to 20 years, this trend is not expected to continue. Although ship sizes for oil tankers and container ships may creep slowly upward in specified trades, their size will be limited to existing port waterway draft restrictions and planned port infrastructure upgrades. Western North America has no current foreseen upgrades. Thus changes in the volume of commodities traded is translated in direct proportion into changes in the frequency of ship movements along the lanes identified as relevant in the future (lanes today, plus the new lanes, minus the discontinued lanes). The final data group required to complete the prediction of the future traffic pattern is the variation of commodity volume for each commodity (previously associated with ship types) between now and Recent historical data can be used to identify the present-day trends in each commodity volume with time. These trends could be used to project forwards to Future Arctic Routes Analysis A reduction in September ice cover has been generally observed in the Arctic in the past three decades. The National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) documents this occurrence in many of there reports and visualizes the decline through descriptive images (/Ref. /48/). With these trending declines in perspective, projections for the continuation of this reduction seem intuitive. However, according to multiple studies, the vast uncertainty found in arctic ice modeling encourages broad findings and indiscrete conclusions when projecting the future growth and decline of the Arctic ice extents both seasonal and multi-year ice. EP September 2010 Page 65

70 5.2.1 Sea-Ice Recession Ice is a difficult parameter to predict. Both the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) (/Ref. /50/) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) (/Ref. /51/) use several models to predict ice conditions for the 21st century. Stroeve et al (Ref. /51/) compared, observed and modeled sea ice extent levels, evaluating the models used in the IPCC AR4. Figure 5-6 presents the predicted sea ice extent and actual ice extent measured in September based on Stroeve et al (/Ref. /51/). The thick red line is observed ice extent while the black solid line indicates the multi-model ensemble mean. Figure 5-6: Predicted Sea Ice Extent and actual ice extent measured in September The mean ensemble prediction of either the models or an individual model was able to reproduce the recent, more rapid changes in sea ice extent. Doscher et. al. highlights awareness regarding comparing short-term observed sea ice changes with long-term modeled ensemble means; This type of comparison is not valid (/Ref. /52/). In this case the ensemble mean is a number of climate model experiments which differ from each other, e.g. the initial model conditions differ based upon model characteristics and parameters of interest. EP September 2010 Page 66

71 In summary, the models which are used to predict sea-ice extent futures have been largely unsuccessful in reproducing observed sea-ice extent data. This level of model uncertainly leads to cloudy and mixed conclusions when it comes to predicting the sea-ice extent for the next 25 years Arctic Shipping Routes Following the release of the ACIA and IPCC AR4, the Arctic Council, a high level intergovernmental forum to provide a means for promoting cooperation, coordination and interaction among the Arctic States, conducted an Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment (AMSA). This assessment focused on the use of ships in the Arctic Ocean, their potential impacts on humans and the Arctic marine environment and their needed marine infrastructure, but it did not focus on the operational and economic viability of specific marine routes in the Arctic Ocean (/Ref. /53/). The Northern Sea Route, as well as, the Northwest Passage route are the Arctic routes which pose a potential impact on the Aleutian Islands study area. The AMSA profiles the challenges these routes face but the discussion of whether shipping is viable is not addressed; AMSA and the Arctic Council do not deem themselves as the appropriate vehicle to address the topic. The AMSA does project that the shipping activity on these routes is highly dependent on the future natural resource development, regional trade growth and future commodity prices for the natural resources which are being developed in and around these regions (/Ref. /53/). Figure 5-7 presents the different potential Arctic Routes as presented by the Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment. EP September 2010 Page 67

72 Figure 5-7: Arctic Routes as presented in the Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment Northern Sea Route: The Northern Sea Route minimizes the distance between Asia (e.g. Yokohama, Japan) and the east coast of North America and Europe by 4000 to 5500 nautical miles compared to transits via the Suez or Panama canals. The Northern Sea Route also has a potential of being ice-free during the summer season at some point between 2011 and 2030 but never in winter (Ref. /49/). A study performed by Dalsoren et. al. projected the shipping tonnages of the Northern Sea Route up to the year 2015 (Ref. /54/). It is assumed that the amount of cargo moving on the Northern Sea Route will increase steeply over the next half century to 20 Megatons by 2025 and 30 Megatons by 2050 (1 Megaton = 1,000,000 Metric Tonnes). According to the Federal Agency of Sea and River Transports of Russia, the annual freight turnover by the Northern Sea Route should increase to 12 Megatons in 2010; 28 Megatons in 2015; and reach 50 Megatons in 2020 (Ref. /55/). These projections are for cargo moving distinctly on the Northern Sea Route but not specifically transiting to or from the East Asia EP September 2010 Page 68

73 part of the route. It is more likely for these tonnages to represent trade between Russia and Europe seeing that the majority of current cargo movement follows this trend. Therefore, the Northern Sea Route segment between Western Russia and East Asia and Western North America is not expected to become a highly transited route within the next 25 years. Northwest Passage Route: The Northwest Passage also reduces the transit between Europe and East Coast North America and Asia a distance of several thousand nautical miles compared to using the Panama Canal. Unlike the Northern Sea Route, there has not been regular commercial transit traffic through the Northwest Passage due to the heavy ice conditions in the narrow straits. The southern channels of the Northwest Passage were navigable in the summers of 2007 and 2008 but they are too narrow and shallow for large vessels. Even though climate change may continue to reduce the ice in both southern and northern channels, it is expected that multi-year ice may continue to drift into open water gaps, posing a threat even to ice strengthened ships. Therefore the Northwest Passage Route is also not expected to significantly impact the future vessel frequencies (Ref. /53/). Summary: It is not likely that the Northern Sea Route segment between Western Russia and East Asia & Western North America will become a highly transited route within the next 25 years beyond expected domestic and oil and gas growth. International trade activity across the Northern Sea route along the eastern coast of Russia not expected to increase within the study period and does not exist given the uneconomical cost implications. Also, given the risk ice drifts pose on passing ships in the narrow passes and given a low magnitude of need to transport international trade above Canada, the Northwest Passage Route, as an international trade route, is not projected to impact the study region traffic movement forecast. Future natural resource development and regional trade growth will provide the significant portion of Arctic traffic growth and this growth is accounted for in the vessel movement forecasts. Also, future Arctic navigation predictions and ice coverage forecasts will have less uncertainty because of more frequent, reliable and near real-time sea ice thickness measurements which will provide a more certain understanding of future ice coverage extents (/Ref. /53/). 5.3 Potential Impact from Oil, Gas Developments In order to understand the impacts of the future development in Alaska s Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) oil & gas (O&G) industry, several economic indicators and regulatory developments are to be considered. For the purpose of this study, an analysis of a future regulatory scenario takes in consideration a favorable regulatory process that would support the O&G industry s development in the region. EP September 2010 Page 69

74 The Economic Analysis of Future Offshore Oil and Gas Development: Beaufort Sea, Chukchi Sea, and North Aleutian Basin is a study commissioned by Shell Exploration and Production and completed by Northern Economics in association with the Institute of Social and Economic Research from the University of Alaska Anchorage in March 2009 (/Ref. /56/). Northern Economics is a professional economics consulting firm that specializes in Alaska economics. Though commissioned by Shell, the study prepared by Northern Economics examines the most up to date forecast of Alaska Oil and Gas offshore developments industry wide and is not limited only to Shell-related developments. The study examines a set of scenarios that reflect possible industry-wide exploration, development, and production activities for each OCS area. The scenarios were based from previous scenarios developed by the Minerals Management Service (MMS) for these OCS areas, as well as insights provided by industry, MMS staff, and state and local government staff (Ref. /56/). The MMS developed these scenarios for environmental impact statements and environmental assessments associated with their lease sales. The scenarios provided a solid foundation for Northern Economics to begin developing their finalized scenarios used in the economic analysis. A major assumption which Northern Economics deviated from the MMS scenarios was in the construction and utilization of a Trans-Alaska gas pipeline to transport natural gas from the north slope region to the market. The Trans-Alaska Pipeline System (TAPS) is used to transport oil from the north slope region in both scenarios. The study scenarios reflect possible industry-wide exploration, development and production activities for these OCS areas but it is recognized that it is only a possible picture of the future rather than a certain anticipation of the actual development pattern which is to be experienced. It is likely that each individual company operating in these areas could have unique plans for identifying and recovering hydrocarbon resources which would change the projected schedules. A forecasted schedule of O&G Activities for Beaufort Sea, Chukchi Sea and North Aleutian Basin for the period is shown in Table 5-1. EP September 2010 Page 70

75 Table 5-1: Schedule of O&G Activities for Beaufort Sea, Chukchi Sea and North Aleutian Basin, Based on Northern Economics Research For the purpose of the Aleutian Island Risk Assessment, the primary focus is the amount of traffic which would be generated through the study region as a result of O&G developments, as well as the hazardous cargoes aboard these vessels during the study period of In order to understand this traffic movement and vessel cargo, a 2007 proposed exploration plan for the Beaufort Sea by Shell was considered and included in the Northern Economics report. Due to the shortened drilling season, ice flow risk, water depths, remote geographic location and sensitive environment, a wide range of vessels were proposed to be utilized. Table 5-2 is a breakdown of support vessels proposed in the Shell study for Shell s Beaufort Sea exploration scenario. Table 5-2: Proposed Vessel Traffic to Support a Shell Beaufort Sea Exploration Vessel Type Maximum Number In Area at any Time Trip Frequency or Duration Offshore Support Vessels 12 Permanently in Area Tug Vessels 1 Permanently in Area Anchor Handling / Supply Vessels 3 Permanently in Area Ice Breakers 2 Permanently in Area Oil Spill Response Vessel 1 Permanently in Area Diesel Oil Supply Vessel 1 One trip per Season After examining the scenario descriptions for each OCS area, it was assumed similar vessel capability distribution requirements would drill all exploration wells across the three OCS areas during the time period of In order to understand how many vessels would enter and leave the study region, it was assumed that all vessels considered permanently in area (in EP September 2010 Page 71