Heavy Commercial Vehicles

Transcription

1 Facts Actions Results Heavy Commercial Vehicles Market intelligence Europe, Brazil New York City, Research Director, Carl Holmquist

2 DISCLAIMER This presentation has been prepared by Rementum Research & Management AB for information purposes only and should be viewed solely in conjunction with the oral presentation provided by Rementum. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Whilst reasonable care has been taken to ensure that its contents are not untrue or misleading, no representation is made as to its accuracy or completeness and no liability is accepted for any loss arising from reliance on it. Rementum AB staff are not permitted to invest in securities issued by companies mentioned in the presentation. Copyright (2016) Rementum Research & Management AB (corporate id no ). All rights reserved. This publication is protected by copyright and may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission. 2

3 AGENDA Rementum Research & Management: Company and product introduction Markets for heavy trucks Europe, Brazil short term Earnings trends Long-term industry trends and game-changers Q&A 3

4 REMENTUM RESEARCH & MANAGEMENT We provide fact-based market strategy advise with lasting financial results Facts - Actions - Results 4

5 OUR FOCUS: COMMERCIAL VEHICLES > 6 T GVW AND THEIR USE Technology Transportation Automotive Function Persons Goods Commercial Vehicles Cars and Light Trucks Product Air Road, etc. Road etc. Trucks Buses, etc. SUVs, etc. Geographical focus: Europe, NAFTA, Brazil 5

6 REMENTUM BUSINESS PROPOSITION F U F: 1. FOCUS: Commercial Vehicles very different from Cars. We ONLY focus on heavy road transport equipment. The heavy market also tends to be more regional 2. URGENCY: The commercial road transport market is fastmoving and very cyclical. We monitor and update market forecasts EVERY day. 3. FACTS: Micro data about road transport is hard to find. We walk the EXTRA mile to secure our in-depth analysis. We are also happy to SHARE our micro data. 6

7 BRIEF HISTORY AND KEY STAFF Founded 2011 in Malmö, Sweden Founder and general research manager: Carl Holmquist, Expert in the Commercial Vehicles- and Heavy Road Transport Industries for over 15 years. Formerly financial analyst at Danske Bank and Svenska Handelsbanken Responisble for Germany and Continental Europe: Douglas Floyd (Berlin/München) Former Analyst at Data Resources (today: IHS Global Insight) Responsible for Sweden and the Nordic Countries: Johan Bäck Persson(Stockholm) Previously at Academic Works Sweden 7

8 REMENTUM - EXTENDED TEAM Jan-Erik Dantoft Production & Logistics advise International production strategies; outsourcing, greenfields etc. Previously head of production Scania, head of R&D Haldex Björn Gunnerholm Sales & Marketing advise Strategies for sales channel and aftermarket Value chain analysis with focus on strategies for sales growth Previously at Ernst & Young 8

9 REMENTUM - EXTENDED TEAM Henrik Sternberg IT strategy advise Professor at ReLog, Lund University Use of IT and Telematics in transport and logistics value chain Jochen Baier Product development advise Professor at Hochschule Furtwangen University Work environment for drivers and the use of telematics Previously at Daimler Trucks Mats Hanson M&A strategy advise Strategies for structural growth Previously at Volvo and DB Schenker 9

10 CLIENTS: ENTIRE VALUE CHAIN COMBINED 2015 REVENUES: >EUR300bn Road Transport Companies Truck-, Bus- & Trailer OEMs Automotive Suppliers Shippers/Cargo Owners Financial Companies Government Bodies & Industry Organisations Focus on business development- & policy advise 10

11 REMENTUM CLIENT APPLICATIONS Industry Standard Reference 11

12 REMENTUM IN THE MEDIA Rementum keynote speakers at IAA in 2014 and

13 AGENDA Rementum Research & Management: Company and product introduction Markets for heavy trucks Europe, Brazil short term Earnings trends Long-term industry trends and game-changers Q&A 13

14 SHORT TERM CONCLUSIONS Europe - strategically important market with data shortage 2016 likely peak year in current investment cycle Expect unusually sharp market share changes in coming years Brazil - in for a long hangover; affecting relative competitiveness 14

15 WHO NEEDS EUROPEAN TRUCKS? THE WORLD DOES! Left chart shows % share of global truck unit sales >15 metric tonnes, by regional market. Right chart shows % share of global truck unit sales >15 metric tonnes, by OEM regional origin. Sources: Rementum, ACEA, ACT, ANFAVEA, JAMA, CAAM, Company reports 15

16 FINANCIAL RELEVANCE; EUROPEAN MARKETS (2015) Left chart shows median European share of total sales for the 11 companies in the right-hand chart Right chart shows European share (%) of total sales for the 11 largest public CV companies. * Rementum estimate Sources: Rementum, company data 16

17 STRONG CUSTOMER PRODUCTIVITY FOCUS... HEAVIER USAGE: STRONGER ENGINES: MORE AXLES: Left chart shows % CAGR in industrial activity and road transport activity in EU28+EFTA, Middle chart shows average engine specification (hps) in EU28 + EFTA, Right chart shows indexed trends in axle specifications in EU28 + EFTA, Sources: Rementum, Eurostat, European road transport authorities. 17

18 ..AND CHALLENGING ENVIRONMENT FORMULA FOR VEHICLE REQUIREMENTS EXTENSIVE FUEL PRICES HIGH LABOUR MARKETS STATIC, STRICT H O S RULES EXPORTS DEPENDENCY HIGH INFRASTRUCTURE STANDARDS VARYING Chart shows the relative average cost of on-highway diesel in Europe and the US. Sources: Rementum, European Commission, US Energy Information Administration 18

19 EUROPE AS A COMMERCIAL VEHICLES REFERENCE MARKET CAB OVER ENGINE INTEGRATED POWERTRAIN DISC BRAKES SCR AFTERTREATMENT AUTOMATIC TRANSMISSION European origin Legal Legal/economic Legal Legal/economic Economic Global impact Global norm outside North America, Australia Global norm outside North America (becoming norm here as well) Global standard within 10 years Global norm Global norm within 10 years 19

20 CHALLENGING RESEARCH ENVIRONMENT Fragmented market structure Anti-trust investigation caps OE data disclosure 20

21 CHALLENGES WITH EUROPEAN DATA 24 official languages (+ a number of inofficial..) 28 national automotive dealers associations >30 national motor vehicle registration authorities Vehicle classifications and -regulations are national Iveco, MAN, Scania do not provide quarterly truck or bus data OEMs define market inconsistently 21

22 ALLEGED EUROPEAN OE COLLUSION A history of truck OEM data sharing in both Europe and the US Jan. 11: European Commission confirms dawn raids 12- very little public pan-european truck market data available Nov. 14: More specific price-fix accusations presented to OEMs Commission investigation still ongoing No specific evidence of harmful information sharing presented 22

23 OTHER IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES Relatively few large fleets: Deutsche Post ~ 10,000 trucks La Poste ~ 8,000 trucks XPO Logistics ~ 8,000 trucks Waberer s ~ 3,500 trucks Girteka ~ 3,000 trucks Eddie Stobart ~ 2,500 trucks PostNord ~ 1,500 trucks LKW Walter ~ 1,200 trucks Vos Logistics ~ 1,000 trucks Heisterkamp ~ 750 trucks Average fleet US top-100 carriers: >3,000 trucks (Source: ATA) Essentially no pure road carriers publically traded No pan-european trade association for road carriers 23

24 RELEVANT COMPARISONS Left chart shows monthly and rolling 12-months orders of Class 8 trucks in North America Right chart shows monthly retail prices (indexed and % change y/y) for class 8 trucks in the US Sources: Rementum, ACT Research, FTR Associates, US Bureau of Labor Statistics European car industry Financial markets (mortgage rates, bonds v. stocks) 24

25 FUNDAMENTAL ECONOMIC IMPROVEMENT ALSO IN CONSTRUCTION 2016 car sales 11% growth YTD. 15: 9%, 14: 6%, 13: -2% 2016 construction 3% growth YTD. 15: 1%, 14: 2%, 13: -5% Left chart shows annualised level of monthly car registrations in EU + EFTA. Right chart shows indexed levels of construction activity (EU) and Caterpillar dealer sales (EMEA). Sources: Rementum, ACEA, Caterpillar, Eurostat 25

26 BANK CREDIT GROWING; IMPORTANT CATALYST FOR CONSTRUCTION Monetary authorities determined to avoid repeat of Easy money now impacting the real economy Emerging market FX-, inflation-, capital worries high on agenda The left chart shows a combined index of the VIX, the selected credit spreads and the US treasury yield curve (10y 3m). The right chart shows y/y growth (%) in lending from commercial banks to non-financial corporations. Sources: Rementum, Bloomberg, ECB, Financial Times, Global-Rates, US Federal Reserve 26

27 CLEAR BREAK IN CARRIERS EXPECTED DEMAND FROM H Sentiment strongly influenced my macro political situation Currently changing almost on a day-to-day basis Left chart shows indexed level of Nordic carriers experienced demand and business confidence. Right chart shows indexed level of the Danske Bank European road freight forwarding index (6-month average). Sources: Rementum, Nordic statistical agencies, Danske Bank 27

28 WEAKENING MOMENTUM IN EUROPEAN FREIGHT MARKET unusually strong road freight growth Left chart shows y/y % growth in truck traffic at >40 observation points in EU28 and EFTA. Right chart shows diesel deliveries growth in 70% of the European markets. Sources: Rementum, Petroleum industry organisations, road authorities and corporations *N.B: As of June 1, 2015 and October 1, 2015 Das Bundesamt für Güterverkehr (BAG) has included more than 1,100 additional kms of federal roads and lowered weight and axle requirements in the German maut (road toll) system. We have calculated adjustments to our European data accordingly. 28

29 FLEET AGE SUPPORTIVE FOR CAPACITY REPLACEMENT DEMAND Over-investments in created major overhang Emissions standards (Euro VI) has magnified recent shortage The left chart shows estimated average fleet age for heavy trucks (>16t) in EU28 + EFTA. The right chart shows price development (indexed and y/y change) for used road tractors in Europe Sources: Rementum, ACEA, European road authorities, used equipment dealers 29

30 RAPID TRUCK CAPACITY TIGHTENING IN probable continuation as trucks up for scrapping/export Long-term average balance = 0, but cycles are long Left chart shows indexed balance between capacity (trucks >16t) and road freight in EU28 + EFTA. Right chart shows capacity balance in Europe plotted against carrier freight rates survey data. Sources: Rementum, ACEA, Eurostat, road authorities and corporations 30

31 E POSITIVE EARNINGS ENVIRONMENT FOR ROAD CARRIERS Freight volumes +1% q/q. Diesel -19%(!). Freight rates +/-0% in Q1 16 Freight volumes +4% q/q. Diesel +/-0%. Freight rates +/-0% in Q2 16E The left chart shows average diesel prices/litre in Europe (incl. And excl. taxes), relative to weekly average prices of Brent crude oil The right chart shows indexed level of experienced European carrier profitability (index, LHS) and the level of heavy truck (>3.5t) registrations in EU28 + EFTA by quarter. Sources: Rementum, Carrier organisations, ACEA, European Commission, US EIA 31

32 RECENTLY RAISED TRUCKS INVESTMENT FORECAST Base case: freight volume growth rate of 2% in /-0% change in total truck (>16t and >6t) population 7% growth in EU28+EFTA >16t registrations expected -7% decrease in 2017 registrations expected 32

33 (<)2% ANNUAL GROWTH IS LONG-TERM TREND IN REGISTRATIONS Sales level likely to remain close to trend through saw sales significantly above trend 2% growth, or less, is the average The chart shows reported and forecast registrations of heavy trucks (>16t GVW) and estimated long-term trend in EU28 + EFTA. Sources: Rementum, ACEA 33

34 KEY MARKET INDICATORS; REGISTRATIONS & DELIVERIES Estimated annualised registrations Europe, 2015/2016 >6t GVW Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr ( e )* May Jun EU 27 + EFTA >16tonnes 22,986 21,234 22,622 21,602 28,499 28,500 26,500 26,000 Seasonal factor 8% 7% 9% 7% 9% 9% 8% 9% Annualised >16tonnes 277, , , , , , , ,826 Add 6-16 tonnes 349, , , , , , , ,261 Annualised build >6tonnes 429, , , , , , , ,261 Est. YTD build >6tonnes 343, ,389 34,504 67, , , , ,691 * 85% of Europe reported Annualised OEM deliveries Europe, 2015/2016 >6t GVW Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2E Q3E Run rate pr Q Run rate x 4 FY Industry (estimate)* Scania (estimate) 10,305 13,134 12,000 Volvo 18,408 25,917 22,917 Paccar 11,100 15,000 13,500 Daimler EU30 19,938 24,793 15,469 Daimler Europe (estimate) 29,169 36,271 22,631 MAN (estimate) 17,067 20,909 17,400 Total deliveries 86, ,231 88, ,061 94,970 99, , ,716 % chg. y/y Accumulated industry (estimate)* 283, ,529 98, , ,977 * Adding 11% for Iveco Estimated build includes Russia/CIS and Turkey (appr. 90k annually in 11-13) Russia/CIS will see negative impact from several factors also on 16E demand 34

35 TRUCK OE MARKET SHARES, EUROPE (THROUGH MARCH) Medium term Long term Raised volatility in market shares seems to be persistent feature Left chart shows 6-month average of trucks market shares (%, >6t). EU28+EFTA Right chart shows quarterly trucks market shares (%, >6t) EU28 + EFTA + Turkey and Russia Sources: Rementum, Automotive industry organisations, Commercial Vehicle OEMs 35

36 MIX SHIFT TO BE EXPECTED SHORT TERM Cyclical pattern Relative exposure, deliveries Construction- and vocational vehicles will increase relative share Left chart shows 6-month average of road tractor share of total truck registrations Right chart shows DAF s relatively lower exposure in to the rigid truck segment Sources: Rementum, European automotive industry associations 36

37 DO NOT EXPECT BRAZIL TO RECOVER SOON Is 8.5% CAGR sustainable? Still a commodities economy Timing of OE capacity expansion/market entry poor in hindsight Left chart shows registrations of trucks >15t GVW in Brazil, superimposed on the 8.5% CAGR trend seen between Right chart shows registrations of trucks >15t GVW in Brazil, relative to the average USD price for Brent crude Sources: Rementum, ANFAVEA, US EIA 37

38 AFFECTING THE TRUCK MARKETS GLOBALLY Crowded market seeing sharp changes Clear mix shift Vehicle specifications favoring value brands and less technology Left chart shows OE brand truck market shares (%) >15t GVW in Brazil Right chart shows truck market mix, by weight, >3.5t GVW in Brazil Sources: Rementum, ANFAVEA 38

39 AGENDA Rementum Research & Management: Company and product introduction Markets for heavy trucks Europe, Brazil short term Earnings trends Long-term industry trends and game-changers Q&A 39

40 EARNINGS TRENDS CONCLUSIONS Cycle is turning; longer up-cycle than usual All parts of the value chain seem to be in fairly good shape OEs not showing pricing discipline 40

41 EARNINGS CYCLE FINALLY TURNING Not always synchronized but inter-dependence obvious What is different this time? Left chart shows EBIT-margins (12-month rolling) for CV OEs, US carriers and Brake suppliers Right chart shows level of US carrier net earnings and Class 8 truck registrations (12m rolling) Sources: Rementum, Company reports, JD Powers 41

42 CARRIERS SAVED BY PLUNGING FUEL COSTS Tailwinds turning to headwinds Left chart shows average US road carrier freight rates/total mile driven Right chart shows average US carrier fuel cost as % of sales Sources: Rementum, Company Reports 42

43 SUPPLIERS SAVED BY AFTERMARKET EXPOSURE (AND RESTRUCTURING) Suppliers more exposed to profitable aftermarket than OEs are Tailwinds turning to headwinds Left chart shows estimated share of total sales coming from the aftermarket for brake suppliers Middle chart shows estimated EBIT-margins for Trucks and Parts sales respectively for Oes Right chart shows estimated share of total sales coming from the aftermarket for OEs Sources: Rementum, Company Reports 43

44 OES GENERALLY DOING THE RIGHT THINGS Soft pricing is mainly a result of political decisions at the OEs Left chart shows aggregated OE CV staff (nos) and sales/employee (rolling 12 months v stock) Right chart shows aggregated OE CV inventories (EURm) and inv/sales (stock v rolling 12 months) Sources: Rementum, Company Reports 44

45 AGENDA Rementum Research & Management: Company and product introduction Markets for heavy trucks Europe, Brazil short term Earnings trends Long-term industry trends and game-changers Q&A 45

46 LONG TERM CONCLUSIONS Paccar well positioned for market share gains in Europe Profitability battle will be fought in the aftermarket Technological revolution a game changer 46

47 EASTERN EUROPEAN CARRIERS INCREASINGLY COMPETITIVE Long-haul costs, Europe 2014 Variance key cost factors, Europe 2015 Left chart shows typical cost breakdown for long-haul TL carrier in Europe 2014 Right chart shows spread in cost level of key input factors for long-haul carrier 2015 Sources: Rementum, SA, BGL, TLN, Eurostat 47

48 PRONOUNCED EASTERN GRAVITATION LONG TERM Trend Relative exposure, market share Lower diesel costs will accelerate eastward migration of business Left chart shows share of heavy trucks registered in Western- and Eastern European markets respectively Right chart shows DAFs relatively higher exposure in to the Eastern European markets Sources: Rementum, Automotive industry associations 48

49 WORKSHOP OWNS END CUSTOMER * Costs for downtime, maintenance, spare parts and tyres. Vehicle depreciation and capital cost Sources: Rementum, BGL, TLN, SÅ, Paccar 49

50 BY CAPTURING MORE OF THE TRUCK LCC Usually tied to financing (guaranteed residual values) 50

51 AFTERMARKET SALES INCREASINGLY MOVING TO OEMs OE coming from a lower starting point, but clearly capturing market Left chart shows aggregated (indexed) parts & service sales relative to total sales (EUR) for Navistar Int l, Paccar and Scania Right chart shows aggregated (indexed) aftermarket sales relative to total sales (USD) for Haldex, Meritor, Knorr-Bremse and Wabco. Sources: Rementum, company data 51

52 TIER-1 SUPPLIERS TARGETING INDEPENDENT AM 2013: Alltrucks multiple-brand (Bosch, ZF, Knorr) workshops open 2014-: Knorr-Bremse expands remanufacturing and modularisation 2016: Wabco launching ProVia Budget brand 2016: Meritor extending trailer wheel-end warranty to seven years 2016: Haldex launching Midland Value brand JURY STILL OUT ON THE ACTUAL EFFECT FOR BRAKE SUPPLIERS 52

53 TECHNOLOGY WILL BE A GAME-CHANGER Source: Google Source: Scania Source: Freightliner Source: Scania Interconnectivity, Autonomy and Electrification 53

54 AGENDA Rementum Research & Management: Company and product introduction Markets for heavy trucks Europe, Brazil short term Long-term industry trends and game-changers Q&A 54

55 THANK YOU! Facts Actions Results Corporate ID no:

56 REMENTUM CONTACT DETAILS Malmö Office (research): Rementum Research & Management, AB S:t Johannesg. 2, IV S Malmö SWEDEN Tel.: Berlin Office (inquiries services): Rementum Research & Management, GmbH Friedrichstraße 88 D Berlin GERMANY Tel.: Fax: