Logistics in a Low Carbon World

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1 Logistics in a Low Carbon World Dr Maja I. Piecyk HWU Industry Day 26 th February 2013

2 GHG emissions from logistics Logistics sector: 5.5% of the total man-made GHG emissions Source: World Economic Forum (2009), Supply Chain Decarbonisation

GHG emission reduction targets UK Climate Change Act (2008) National target: at least 80% reduction by 2050 relative to 1990 level EU White Paper: Roadmap to a Single European Transport Area Towards

3 GHG emission reduction targets UK Climate Change Act (2008) National target: at least 80% reduction by 2050 relative to 1990 level EU White Paper: Roadmap to a Single European Transport Area Towards a Competitive and Resource Efficient Transport System (2011) EU target for the transport sector: at least 60% reduction relative to 1990 level Interim target: reduction to around 20% below 2008 level by 2030 Freight Transport Association: Recording, reporting and reducing CO 2 emissions from the logistics sector (2010) Sectoral target: 8% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2015, compared to the 2010 baseline Target subsequently endorsed by the UK Government

4 Potential CO 2 Reduction and Costs in Different Sectors (idealised) Agriculture A Construction A Public services c c A c A Logistics Private services A Primary production & manufacturing A c c Power generation Abatement of CO 2e slope = cost / tonne of CO2e saved Other utilities A c cost c

5 Logistical impact of the growth of the renewable energy sector steel concrete tonnes of material per megawatt Natural gas Nuclear Coal Wind Source: Petersen, 2006 Manufacturing, distributing and installing renewable energy equipment is very freight-transport intensive Need to create new global supply chains for lithium, batteries, solar panels etc.

Examples of company carbon reduction targets 25% reduction in CO 2 emissions per case delivered 2012-2020 20% reduction in CO 2

6 Examples of company carbon reduction targets 25% reduction in CO 2 emissions per case delivered % reduction in CO 2 per kilometre between 2006 and 2020 Improving CO 2 efficiency by 30% between 2007 and 2020 Aim to be carbon neutral No date specified.

7 UK Delphi survey of 100 logistics specialists: projection economic growth Total tonne-kms +26% transport intensity road share of tonne-kms -6% modal split Road tonne-kms + 24% Total vehicle-kms +2% average load on laden trips +12% average % empty running -19% kms per litre of fuel +5% vehicle utilisation energy efficiency Energy consumption -3% CO 2 per litre of fuel -5% carbon content of energy CO 2 Emissions - 10% Source: Piecyk and McKinnon, 2010 Government target reduction in CO 2 by 2020: 34% Extrapolating to 2050 only yields 28% reduction in CO 2

8 Decarbonisation scenario for road freight transport in 2050 Total tonne-kms stable at 2007 level Road share of freight tonne-kms reduced from 64% to 50% % of truck kilometres run empty reduced from 27% to 17% Average weight-based load factor up from 59% to 70% 40% improvement in energy efficiency 30% reduction in the carbon content of the energy Source: McKinnon and Piecyk, % reduction in CO 2 emissions

10 Carbon saving Measure Measures to Reduce Energy Consumption Vehicle Design and Settings Typical Saving Adopt vehicles with automated manual transmission 2% Set vehicle speed limiters at lower speeds 0.4% Reduce engine idling 3% Switch from powered to fixed deck trailers (for double decks) 3% Reduce vehicle tare weight 1% Install cab roof fairing 4% Install body / trailer side panels 1% Example of decarbonisation measures Use trailers with sloping front roof (double deck / high cube vehicles) 5% Use tear drop trailer 6% Reduce height of vehicle 3% More regular tyre inflation checks 1% Use low rolling resistance tyres 2% Fit super singles 2% Automatic tyre pressure adjustment 3% Energy/Fuel Type Use of fuel additives 0.3% Increase use of hybrid vehicles 0%

11 Example selection of carbon saving measure

12 Results of carbon saving measures

13 Increase in vehicle carrying capacity

Britain without double-deck lorries McKinnon, 2010 If double deck vehicles had been replaced by standard lorries in 2008: Total fuel consumption from 190

14 Britain without double-deck lorries McKinnon, 2010 If double deck vehicles had been replaced by standard lorries in 2008: Total fuel consumption from 190 to 312 million litres a 64% increase CO 2 emissions from 0.5 million tonnes to 0.82 million tonnes equivalent to adding 151,000 new cars to Britain s roads

Longer & heavier vehicles EU 15.65 m 7.82 m 7.82 m 7.82 m 13.

15 Longer & heavier vehicles EU m 7.82 m 7.82 m 7.82 m 13.6 m 13.6 m 13.6 m 7.82 m 13.6 m 13.6 m 7.82 m 13.6 m 13.6 m

16 Logistics research at HWU Logistics Research Centre (LRC) Centre for Sustainable Road Freight (SRF) SRF Director Prof D.Cebon Heavy vehicles dynamics, safety and fuel consumption SRF Deputy Director Dr M. Piecyk green logistics, carbon footprinting of supply chain networks, transport modelling Cambridge team: Prof H. Babinsky Vehicle aerodynamics Dr A.Boies Dual fuels, vehicle emissions, logistics modelling Dr D. Cole Driver vehicle interaction and human factors Prof N. Collings Fuel and emissions Prof N. Kingsbury Traffic congestion monitoring and prediction Dr M. Sutcliffe Lightweight composite vehicles HWU team: Prof A. McKinnon Logistics strategy, green logistics, road freight transport Dr A. Palmer logistics modelling & network design, collaboration in supply chain networks Dr G. Walker human factors, transport systems & driver behaviour Prof T. Jamasb energy economics, regulation, policy & technology, energy networks

European Logistics in 2050

EU Green Week Transport and Spatial Planning in a Decarbonised World European Logistics in 2050 Professor Alan McKinnon Logistics Research Centre Heriot-Watt University EDINBURGH, UK 25th June 2009 freight