Asia-Pacific & Middle East PET Asia- Pacific R-PET Market Review & Outlook Webinar 2014

Transcription

1 Asia-Pacific & Middle East PET Asia- Pacific R-PET Market Review & Outlook Webinar 2014 Hazel Goh ICIS 6 August 2014 Click here to watch the recording of the webinar

2 ICIS Market intelligence for the energy, chemical and fertilizer industries Analysis Prices News

3 Support for Immediate through Long-term Decisions Near- Term Available on Dashboard Price Assessments Price reports Margin reports Price alerts Price indices Market News 24 hour real-time news Training & conferences Market insight & analysis Long- Term Data Analysis and Short-Term Supply & Demand Long-Term Data-Driven Strategic Planning Plant capacities, outputs & shutdowns Historical supply & demand database Forecast supply & demand database Industry-focused global consultancy

4 Stay abreast of the Asia and Middle East PET markets ICIS provides weekly price assessments and market analysis, enabling you to understand price drivers and fluctuations. Historical pricing data, which you can incorporate into your own analytical models, is also available. Our coverage includes a dedicated weekly report for both virgin PET and R-PET markets for Asia, the Middle East, China and other regions such as Europe, Latin America and the US. Request your free sample reports today >>

5 Asia-Pacific & Middle East PET Webinar Asia- Pacific R-PET Market Review & Outlook 2014 Hazel Goh Markets Reporter ICIS Pricing

6 Anti-Trust & Compliance No market participant at ICIS events is allowed to comment on future price expectations to do so could be considered price signalling and this could be held against the speaker and organiser if a case for anti-competitive behaviour is brought against either. However, speakers may discuss historic trends and analyse those trends; they may offer and discuss future demand and supply projections without drawing any conclusions as to price levels as a result of those projections. We also request that delegates refrain from asking questions about future prices.

7 Outline PET (Asia-Pacific & Middle East) Asia-Pacific Trade Flow Asia-Pacific UTD 2014 Market Situation Asia-Pacific Spread and Margins Mideast Trade Flow Mideast UTD 2014 Market Situation Price Drivers & Demand Outlook Recent & Upcoming New Capacities Global Price Trends R-PET (Asia-Pacific) Applications & Advantages Price Variations UTD 2014 Market Situation Price Drivers & Demand Outlook Global Price Trends ICIS Reports Proposed PTA Cost-linked Index PET Asia-Pacific & PET Mideast Reports R-PET Asia-Pacific Report Methodology

8 PET (Asia-Pacific & Middle East) Asia-Pacific Trade Flow Asia-Pacific UTD 2014 Market Situation Asia-Pacific Spread and Margins Mideast Trade Flow Mideast UTD 2014 Market Situation Price Drivers & Demand Outlook Recent & Upcoming New Capacities Global Price Trends

9 PET Asia-Pacific Trade Flow Europe Asia- Pacific US CIS Asia- Pacific South America Middle East Oceania

10 PET Asia-Pacific UTD 2014 Market Situation Fibre grade and film grade chips Picture adapted from e.com/blog/post/spi -and-acc-partneron-rigid-plasticspackagingthermoforming Regular demand to meet basic production requirements Limited spot trades Bottle grade chips Healthy demand started from around March Demand tapered down at around end-may/june, affected by fluctuations in feedstock PTA and MEG prices, close to the end of the peak season

11 PET Asia-Pacific Spread and Margins - PET raw material cost based on: 0.86 PTA+0.34 MEG Source: ICIS

12 PET Asia-Pacific Spread and Margins - PET raw material cost based on: 0.86 PTA+0.34 MEG Source: ICIS

13 PET Middle East Trade Flow Asia- Pacific Outflow and within GCC 3 main producers in GCC (Sabic, JBF and Octal) Rest of Middle East GCC Europe Sales in GCC region Export to Africa, Europe and the rest of the Middle East Inflow Africa Some Asia-Pacific material - usually Chinese material Import into GCC

14 PET Middle East UTD 2014 Market Situation Bottle grade chips Healthy demand started from around March Demand still healthy, buoyed by higher end-user demand for bottled beverages amid the warm weather and festive celebrations Sentiment affected by fluctuations in feedstock PTA and MEG prices and Asia-Pacific market situation

15 PET Price Drivers & Demand Outlook Bottle grade chips Demand will be stable-to-weak Northern hemisphere demand falls, southern hemisphere demand increases Production likely stable or reduced slightly, according to sales volumes achieved Fibre grade chips Demand will be stable or slightly improved Downstream manufacturing season for certain applications of PET fibre Film grade chips Spot demand likely to remain flat Buyers continue to rely on contractual volumes/regular spot quantities Source: Market

16 PET Recent and Upcoming New Capacities Company Country Location Capacity (kt/yr) Remarks EIPET Egypt Ain Sokhna 225 Started up in Jan 2014 EIPET Egypt Ain Sokhna 225 Commissioning, looking to start up soon Yisheng New Material China Yizheng, Jiangsu 500 Started up in Feb 2014 JBF Industries Ltd Belgium Geel 216 Started up in June 2014 JBF Industries Ltd Belgium Geel 216 Commissioning, looking to start up soon Lotte Chemical UK UK Wilton, Teesside 200 Started in July 2014 Reliance Industries Ltd India Dahej, Gujarat 325 Started up in July 2014 Reliance Industries Ltd India Dahej, Gujarat 325 Plans to start up end Arabian Industrial Fibers Saudi Arabia Co Yanbu 420 Commissioning, looking to start up soon Petroquimica Suape Brazil Pernambuco, Suape 450 Mechanically ready; start-up delayed due to technical difficulties Polyplex Corp Turkey Corlu, west of Istanbul 210 Mechanically ready, but waiting for Micro Polypet India Panipat, Harayana 216 Koksan PET Packaging Industry Co licence for energy source usage Mechanically ready, but not heard to have started up yet Turkey Gaziantep 216 Plans to start up in end-2015 Total: million tonnes/year Source: Market

17 PET Global Price Trends Source: ICIS

18 R-PET (Asia-Pacific) Applications & Advantages Price Variations UTD 2014 Market Situation Price Drivers & Demand Outlook Global Price Trends

19 R-PET Asia-Pacific Applications Recycled polyester (main usage of R-PET) Recycled film Recycled bottles (Bottle-to-bottle process that requires high quality R-PET) Advantages More sustainable More environmentally friendly compared to virgin PET Reduce greenhouse gas emissions (during production) Save landfill space and reduce incineration of waste Improve corporate image Go green & gain popularity Cost savings Conserve raw material Potentially lower cost compared with virgin PET

20 R-PET Asia-Pacific Price Variations Prices vary greatly with specifications PVC content Other contaminants content Colour Size Moisture content Brightness Type of wash Picture adapted from Polyethylene-Terephthalate-Bottle-Flakes- _ /showimage.html

21 R-PET Asia-Pacific UTD 2014 Market Situation R-PET hot washed flakes Flat demand in China Source: ICIS Flat downstream fibre-fill industry Largely stable prices Stable pricing of post-consumer bottles Spot trades are largely done between regular pairs of buyers and sellers Some end-users have invested in recycling plants in southeast Asia

22 R-PET Asia-Pacific Price Drivers & Demand Outlook Demand to remain flat amid slow global economic recovery Possible improvement in demand from Aug/Sept From downstream manufacturing of fibre-fills commonly used in fleece coats; peak demand in winter Source: Market

23 R-PET Asia-Pacific Global Price Trends Source: ICIS

24 ICIS Reports ICIS Proposed PTA Cost-linked Index PET Asia-Pacific & PET Mideast Reports R-PET Asia-Pacific Report Methodology

25 ICIS Reports ICIS Proposed PTA Cost-linked Index Due to changing market conditions, ICIS recognises: China s domestic PTA price system has switched to a PX cost-linked formula since June Some contracts signed on a spot average CFR CMP basis were heard cancelled Spot PTA exports from key northeast Asia countries are being offered on a cost-linked basis Significant decline in imports to China; raises debate about the future of CFR CMP ICIS is currently in the process of gathering feedback from all players in the PTA industry, regarding a cost-linked index. This will likely be calculated on a conversion ratio, with variable cost at $110/tonne. Please send your feedback to samuel.wong@icis.com Source: ICIS

26 ICIS Reports PET Asia-Pacific and PET Middle East Bottle grade chips, fibre grade chips, film grade chips

27 ICIS Reports R-PET Asia-Pacific Hot washed flakes

28 ICIS Reports Methodology (General) Based on Deals concluded Bids and offers Buy and sell indications Other information in report Upstream and downstream market developments General market intelligence Notional discussions heard Other factors affecting price movements Supply and demand situation Plant operating rates Feedstock and derivative markets Cargo movements General sentiment Etc A more detailed methodology can be found at

29 ICIS Reports Methodology (PET) Price quotes assess PET fibre grade chips at IV PET film granules at IV PET bottle grade PET chips at IV, for single and multi-layer barriers in carbonated soft drinks (CSD), water and general bottle applications A more detailed methodology can be found at

30 ICIS Reports Methodology (R-PET) Price quotes assess Hot washed PET flakes colourless (containing a maximum of 15% light blue material) blue/green colour Product specification Given other specifications to be within the acceptable industrial standard for use by polyester fibre makers CFR China: flakes with PVC content of 300-1,000ppm CFR India: flakes with PVC content below 300ppm A more detailed methodology can be found at

31 Summary PET The peak demand period for bottle grade chips largely coincides with warmer weather Fibre and film grade chips demand mostly stays flat throughout the year Prices follow feedstock PTA & MEG fluctuations, supply-demand fundamentals New capacities continue to be added in 2014, worsening the overcapacity situation R-PET There are advantages to using R-PET Wide range of prices depending on specifications Demand is flat amid a slow global economic recovery Prices mainly affected by supply-demand fundamentals, limited by virgin PET prices ICIS reports Asia-Pacific: bottle grade chips, fibre grade chips, film grade chips, recycled flakes GCC: bottle grade chips ICIS proposed PTA cost-linked index affects the PET chain

32 Stay abreast of the Asia and Middle East PET markets ICIS provides weekly price assessments and market analysis, enabling you to understand price drivers and fluctuations. Historical pricing data, which you can incorporate into your own analytical models, is also available. Our coverage includes a dedicated weekly report for both virgin PET and R-PET markets for Asia, the Middle East, China and other regions such as Europe, Latin America and the US. Request your free sample reports today >>

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