The Disruptive Trends in OE and Aftermarket

Transcription

1 The Disruptive Trends in OE and Aftermarket 9th CLEPA Aftermarket Conference to Belgium, Brussels Presentation by: Franck Leveque, Partner and Business Unit Leader, Mobility Group We Accelerate Growth

2 Vehicles are Changing AGEING VEHICLES LONGER SERVICE INTERVALS COMPLEXITY OF SERVCE ALTERNATIVE MOBILITY OPTIONS DECREASING MILES DRIVEN CONNECTED & AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES ALTERNATIVE POWERTRAIN VEHICLES TECHNICIAN SKILL GAP SERVICE INEFFICIENCY 2

3 So are Customer Expectations in Ownership Convenience is Key Digital Expectations Seamless Journey Personalised Experience Options beyond Ownership 3

4 Mega Trends Impacting Automotive Aftermarket in Future Traditional aftermarket to face strong headwinds due to the changing nature of cars; industry should move away from parts & service to aftersales vehicle management AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES ELECTRIC VEHICLES CONNECTED VEHICLES 60-80% of vehicle parc in North America to have ADAS/Autonomous capabilities by m BEVs in EU car parc by m BEVs in US car parc by % Penetration in Europe (Parc) 55-57% Penetration in North America (Parc) Up to 20%-30% reduction in collision repair business by 2030 ~95% reduction in number of moving par; $10-15b Telematics $18-20b Feature on Demand 10-20% Warranty Cost 15-20% Repair Time CUSTOMER LOYALTY 4

5 Aftersales - Key Impact Areas and Trends Convergence of business models from various impact areas will create the strongest value propositions for customers in the future. 6 Products Channels 1 Electronics/ software Private Labels / Economy Parts / All Makes Service contracts / loyalty ecommerce Marketplaces Aggregators In-vehicle Sales 5 Customers Technology 2 B2B (for eretailers) Women Drivers Gen Y Telematics / Connected Car 3-D Printing Augmented Reality Big Data In-store Technology 4 Geography Service 3 Urban Store Subscription Formats Remote Glocalization (Expansion to BRIC markets) Mobile/express Participatory Predictive 5

6 Transformation in Automotive Aftermarket Digitization will continue to play a key role in evolving automotive aftersales at multiple levels Supplier Order Fullfilment emarketplaces Service Delivery 3D Printing Direct estores Hub and Spoke + 2 hr delivery Get rates and Transit time Traditional groups selling online Transportation Management Click and Collect Marketplaces ecatalog Provider Webshop Developer Pure Play eretailers Mobile Fitting Service Aggregators Aftermarket Telematics Drone Delivery Tire eretailers Prognostics 6

7 Revenue ($ Billion) Automotive Aftermarket - eretailing Overview. Automotive Aftermarket: eretailing Revenue, Global, 2015 and 2022 Automotive Aftermarket: eretailing Growth Opportunity Areas, Global, ,0 50,0 40,0 Total: $50.80 Billion 10 15% growth forecast 15 30% growth forecast >30% growth forecast 30,0 20,0 Total: $24.75 Billion Automotive Aftermarket: Top 3 eretailing Market Revenues, Global, 2015 and , North America Germany France 0, North America China Germany 7

8 Aftermarket eretailing Penetration by 2022 North America and Western Europe will continue to lead in eretailing penetration levels globally by % 6-7% 5-6% 3-4% France 9-10% Spain 10-11% Italy 5-6% Mexico North America UK China 11-12% 4-5% 6-7% 2-3% Germany Brazil Russia India 8

9 Parts Preference Map by Category (B2C market) While Do-it-yourself (DIY) components and accessories are most popular online, the market for DIFM replacement part categories will grow, as sellers adopt smarter fulfilment models Collision Body Parts Starters and Alternators Steering and Suspension Components Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning (HVAC) Components Exhaust Components Tires Filters Brake Parts Lighting Body Parts Batteries Not-so-popular product categories online Popular product categories sold online Lubricants Accessories DIY to low-level labor-intensive parts Medium- to high-level laborintensive parts Wiper Blades 9

10 Competitors such as Amazon are creating end-to-end vehicle management solutions for vehicle owners Lifestyle Mangement Automotive Ownership Management Vehicle Sales B2C Parts Sales B2B Parts Sales Service Management All Products (Specialty/day-to-day) Car catalogues and virtual garages Online stores Dedicated online platform Service network and home installation All Products (Specialty/day-to-day) Used car and new car sales Subscription delivery services Physical distribution presence Predictive services, sales All Products (Specialty/day-to-day) VR, AR showrooms In-vehicle personlized sales Diagnostic tool integration Virtual assistant (repair /purchase advice) Current Strategy Future Strategy 10

11 Market Share of OES by Country EU5 The OES channel is expected to lose market share in all countries; losses in Germany and France are likely to be lower when compared to other countries. Strategic Analysis of the OES Channel: Country Outlook, Europe, 2015 and 2022 OES Share (%) and Revenue in B in 2015 OES Share (%) and Revenue in B in 2022 Key Areas of Impact 24.8% % 3.98 Brexit could slow new vehicle sales OEM telematics penetration Service aggregation tie-ups 34.9% % 6.15 Strength of franchised and authorised networks Ageing vehicles High DIY activity 40.5% % High OES channel loyalty Strong DIFM market Ageing vehicles Impact of ecommerce 24.7% % 2.74 Low OES channel loyalty Strong DIY market Highest in ageing vehicles 31.8% % 5.99 Average vehicle age is 10 years, the 2 nd -highest in the top 5 European markets increase in OES channel share decrease in OES channel share 11

12 OEM Adoption of New Business Models and Trends PART/ACCESSORIES E-STORES Direct: DIGITAL SERVICE Online/app booking Digital advisors Market place: SOFTWARE UPDATES (w/tablets) ECONOMY PARTS/ALL MAKES Ford (Omnicraft), Renault (Motrio) AFTERSALES LOYALTY/ GIFT CARDS VW - TPS SERVICE AGGREGATOR / MARKETPLACES* *PSA invested in Autobutler.dk in 2015 Openbay and whocanfixmycar is popular among most OEM dealerships Service While You Fly Fixed Price Servicing NEW SERVICE MODELS MOBILE SERVICE 12

13 What is Service Aggregation? Exhibit: WhoCanFixMyCar.com Connects car owners with IAM garages and dealerships. 500 Ford dealers joined the website, Shell selling lubricants + offering access to specialized technical support Source: whocanfixmycar.com, Frost & Sullivan 13

14 Service Aggregation / Marketplace Platforms Global Footprint Service aggregators and marketplaces are partnering with both traditional service providers (e.g. OEMs) as well as industry disruptors such as Uber, ebay (UK): Tiered commission plans as per subscription package Ford, Toyota, Renault, KIA, BMW, Lexus Others include Click Mechanic, Approved Garages, Repairanycar.com Tiered commission plans as per subscription package PSA Others include Fair Garage (Germany), AutoScout24(Germany), Allogarage (France), idgarages (France), MonMécanicien (France), Reparamiauto (Spain) (US): Flat commission on transaction Subscription Fee ebay (US): Commission on transaction Subscription Fee (US): Commission on transaction from Independent mechanics Majors accounts include Uber and Lyft (India): Flat commission on transaction Mahindra & Mahindra Others include Cartisan, MeriCar and CarXpert Business Model Major Partnerships Note: Autobutler is based out of Copenhagen, Denmark 14

15 The Future of Automotive Aftersales Move away from siloed platforms to create a single, comprehensive digitized platform with multiple touchpoints to serve all customer service and other aftersales needs AFTERSALES ecommerce IAM Parts New Service Models Digital Engagement Connected Repair Service Marketplaces Convergence of Platforms Integrated Mobility & Ownership Management 15

16 Future of Mobility Automotive revenue growth in future will come from downstream services driven by platform approach Downstream CAGR 11% 1 Mobility services 1.0 Trillion 12% CAGR OEM Vehicle Sales CAGR 3% 46% 2.9 trillion 2 Financial services 0.5 Trillion 5% CAGR 31% 1.1 trillion 3 Driving services 0.1 Trillion 11% CAGR 2.5 trillion 3.5 trillion Vehicle services 1.3 trillion 8% CAGR One time car sales Downstream services 16

17 Learn More About Digitalization of the Automotive Industry Join Our Mobility and Mega Trend Groups On LinkedIn Mega Trends: Strategic Planning and Innovation Based on Frost & Sullivan Research Follow Frost & Sullivan`s series on Mega Trends by Sarwant Singh on Forbes.com FRANCK LEVEQUE Partner & Business Unit Leader Automotive & Transportation Direct: +49 (0) Mobile: +49 (0) Published Book: New Mega Trends Implications for our Future Lives By Sarwant Singh 17