Reasons for the installation of a global sustainable energy system

Transcription

1 Reasons for the installation of a global sustainable energy system Protection of the natural life-support system Eradication of energy poverty in developing countries Promote peace by reducing dependence upon oil reserves

2 The Guard Rail Concept German Advisory Council on Global Change Source: German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU), 2003,

3 Guard rails for sustainable energy policy, examples ecological guard rails - climate protection - sustainable land use - protection of marine ecosystems - socio-economic guard rails - limiting the proportion of income expended on energy - keeping risks within a normal range - access to advanced energy for all -...

4 Temperature guard-rails for sustainable development 0,2 C per decade global rate of temperature change and global change of temperature 0,1 fi approx. 450 ppm CO C Source: German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU), 2003,

5 IPCC storylines (SRES) for global human evolution, examples A1 A2 very strong economic growth, strong emphasis on R&D, global economic convergence heterogeneous world, slow technological progress, not focused on sustainability Global A1 B1 Economic Environmental A2 B2 Regional B1 B2 similar to A1, in addition green and fair local and regional development paths, business-as-usual (econ. growth etc.) Source: WBGU/IIASA, 2003 Population Economy Technology D r i v i n g En ergy (Land-use) F o r c e s Agriculture

6 Primary energy requirement, exemplary path of WBGU 2500 Energy requirement / Energy efficiency improvement [EJ/a] Energy savings through improved energy productivity Primary energy demand Source: year

7 Rough primary energy portfolio, exemplary path of WBGU 2500 Source: Primary energy [exajoules per year] Energy savings through improved energy productivity Renewable energies Fossil and nuclear year

8 Carbon sequestration

9 Exemplary path, global primary energy consumption energy demand per year [EJ/a] geothermal other renewables solar thermal (heat only) solar power (PV and solar thermal generation) wind biomasse (advanced) biomasse (traditional) hydroelectricity nuclear power gas coal oil year Source: German Advisory Council on Global Change, 2003,

10 Renewable energy sources, examples

11 Electricity from solar energy, main conversion paths, system sizes Photovoltaics Photovoltaic and optical concentration Solar thermal power plants 100 W 10 MW 100 kw 50 MW > 50 MW

12 Solar thermal power plant, detail EuroTrough Prototyp

13 Solar cell

14 Photovoltaics in architecture

15 Large scale application of photovoltaic Source: Bundesverband Solarindustrie,

16 Principle of photovoltaic energy conversion E negative electrode selective e - transport photon absorber selective h + transport positive electrode E F - e - E F - h + > > e - load e - x

17 Solar cell structure, silicon wafer based anti reflexion layer passivation n + - emitter front contact p - base rear contact

18 Cost reduction in Si wafer technology material consumption 300 µm 150 µm 50 µm

19 Ultrathin multicrystalline Si high efficiency solar cells

20 Evolution of PV technologies Si-ribbon mono-si multi-si CVD- Si CdTe CIS a-si III/V Dye and organic PV CuS/CdS mono-si 1954

21 The concept of exergy (availability) DE ex E in S in Converter DS fi DQ E out S out DQ= T amb DS T amb DE ex = ( E in - E out ) - T amb ( S in - S out )

22 Thermodynamical limits of solar photovoltaic energy conversion 100% 80% 60% h 40% T s = K T c = 300 K 20% 0% optical concentration Source: R. Sizmann 1991

23 Principal losses in photovoltaic energy conversion 1600 power density [W/m 2 µm] surplus energy of high energy photons converted photon energy wavelength [nm]

24 Stacked solar cells power density [W/m 2 µm] AM1.5 GaInP GaInAs Ge wavelength [nm]

25 Photovoltaic Optoelectronics front contac Ga 0.65 In 0.35 P tunnel diode Ga 0.83 In 0.17 As tunnel diode Ge ARC n + -AlInP - window layer n-gainp - emitter GaInP - undoped layer p-gainp - base p + -GaInP - barrier layer p + -AlGaInP - barrier layer p ++ -AlGaAs n ++ -GaAs or GaInP n + -AlGaInP/AlInAs - barrier layer n-gainas - emitter GaInAs - undoped layer p-gainas - base p + -GaInAs - barrier layer p + -AlGaInAs - barrier layer p ++ -AlGaAs n ++ -GaInAs n-graded Ga 1-x In x As buffer layer p-ge substrate (100) cap layer 1.7 ev 1.3 ev n- dopedwindow- and nucleation laye n-ge diffused emitter 0.7 ev rear contact

26 Photovoltaic energy conversion under optical concentration solar radiation solar cell heat transport

27 High-concentration PV Solar Systems (AUS) Amonix (US)

28 PV concepts under scientific discussion Up and down conversion of photon energy Multi-bands cells Quantum well structure Electromagnetic antenna Auger excitation Extraction of hot carriers Thermophotonics

29 Required surface area of solar electricity, 2050 Source:

30 Large area electricity grids -> global link

31 Exemplary path, global primary energy consumption energy demand per year [EJ/a] geothermal other renewables solar thermal (heat only) solar power (PV and solar thermal generation) wind biomasse (advanced) biomasse (traditional) hydroelectricity nuclear power gas coal oil year Source: German Advisory Council on Global Change, 2003,

32 Global PV market 1200 MW p / a Source: PSE- Projektgesellschaft Solare Energiesysteme mbh, 2005

33 Si Flat Plate PV Modules, Price Experience Curve 10 Euro/Wp 1 Euro = 1,2 USD 1 Source: PSE GmbH, cumulated power MWp

34 Conclusion I Even under strong economic growth a global energy system is feasible that is compatible with extensive sustainability criteria The transformation of the global energy systems will take a century

35 Conclusion II Such a system is mainly based upon throughout: efficient use of energy medium term: limited use of fossil resources (including carbon sequestration) and utilisation of a broad spectrum of renewable energy sources, long term: conversion of solar radiation