Thin Films in Photovoltaics: Contribution to a Future Mainstream Electricity Provider

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1 Applied Solar Expertise Thin Films in Photovoltaics: Contribution to a Future Mainstream Electricity Provider Society Vacuum Coaters Chicago April 18th, 2011 Dr. Winfried Hoffmann ASE Vice President EPIA Consultant Applied Materials Solar Member of Scientific Board of FhG-ISE and Supervisory Board of ISFH and Helmholtz

2 1. EPIA is the worlds biggest PV only oriented industrial association with currently over 240 members 2. The membership represents # the global PV industry # the complete value chain (material production, equipment manufacturing, component production, system integration, R&D institutes etc) # many national PV associations 2

EREC European Renewable Energy Council Umbrella organisation representing all RES sectors: AEBIOM European Biomass Association EBB European Biodiesel Board EBIO European Bioethanol

Industry Federation EUBIA European Biomass Industry Association EWEA European Wind Energy Association EUREC Agency European Renewable Energy Research Centres Agency Associate members:

3 EREC European Renewable Energy Council Umbrella organisation representing all RES sectors: AEBIOM European Biomass Association EBB European Biodiesel Board EBIO European Bioethanol Industry Association EGEC European Geothermal Energy Council EPIA European Photovoltaic Industry Association ESHA European Small Hydropower Association ESTIF European Solar Thermal Industry Federation EUBIA European Biomass Industry Association EWEA European Wind Energy Association EUREC Agency European Renewable Energy Research Centres Agency Associate members: EU-OEA European Ocean Energy Association EREF European Renewable Energy Federation ESTELA European Solar Thermal Electricity Association Representation of European RES industry, trade & research 3

4 Content Photovoltaic market and generation cost: past and near future The power of Price Experience Curves for PV modules and relevant thin film technologies Thin vacuum deposited films for c-si wafer based and Thin Film modules Long term perspective towards 100% global energy supply by Renewables with PV playing an increasingly important role Source: Dr. Winfried Hoffmann SVC: Thin Films in PV 4

5 PV Solar serving a Multitude of Customer Needs on-grid off-grid consumer high efficiency /kwh /hr light W/m ² g/w /m² / aesthetics /W flexibility W/mm² Source: Fraunhofer ISE 5

6 Historical and next 5 year PV market growth (bottom-up) [MW] Average growth % p.a.!! Historical Data EPIA Policy Driven 20% pa EPIA Moderate 6% pa Source: EPIA market workshop, Paris, Dr. Winfried Hoffmann Thin Films in Photovoltaics (SVC) 6

7 SET For 2020 PV penetration in EU - a top-down approach Cumulative Volume (GW) GW Indicative Share of e-demand by 2020 Paradigm Shift Scenario: 12% Accelerated Scenario: 6% Baseline Scenario: 4%

8 Electricity Load Curve in Germany And Impact of up to 50 GW PV PV reduces the afternoon peak! 8

9 Competitiveness Between Electricity Generation Cost PV and Electricity Price Ref: W. Hoffmann personal estimates,

10 ASP in $/W Photovoltaic Modules Price Experience Curve PEF 20% source: NAVIGANT 1 1,E+00 1,E+01 1,E+02 1,E+03 1,E+04 1,E+05 MW accumulated 10

-20% -30% -40% Dominated by Technology Cumulative Production Log

11 Product Price The Power of Price Experience Curves (PEC) Log Price Price Experience Factor (PEF) +10% Dominated by Materials & Energy -20% -30% -40% Dominated by Technology Cumulative Production Log Quantity Source: Adapted from National Renewable Energy Laboratory 11

12 DRAM Price [$cents / bit] DRAM Price [$cents / bit] DRAM Moore s Law Experience Curve Experience Curve 1,E ,E ,E-02 1,E-02 1,E-03 1,E-03 1,E-04 1,E-04 1,E-05 PEF 40% 1,E-05 PEF 40% 1,E-06 1,E-06 1,E-07 1,E+12 1,E+14 1,E+16 1,E+18 1,E+20 Cumulated bits 1,E-07 1,E+12 1,E+14 1,E+16 1,E+18 1,E+20 Cumulated bits Source: Applied Materials, Semiconductors Group,

Semiconductor Tremendous Development 1971

PMOS transistor with physical gate length

13 Semiconductor Tremendous Development bit Microprocessor, Intel, 1971 Today Smallest Technology Dimension State-of the Art Microprocessor, AMD, since 2005 AMD PMOS transistor with physical gate length of 42nm Source: Semiconductor Insights Inc. 13

14 DRAM Price [$cents / bit] Smallest Technology Dimension [nm] DRAM Moore s Law Experience Curve Driven by Technology 1,E ,E-02 1,E ,E-04 1,E-05 PEF 40% 100 1,E-06 1,E-07 1,E+12 1,E+14 1,E+16 1,E+18 1,E+20 Cumulated bits Source: Applied Materials, Semiconductors Group, Indicated year when volume share of new technology node > 5% Years 14

15 15 Architectural Glass Atlantic Hotel Sail City, Bremerhaven, Germany Baltimore Visitor Center Baltimore, MD USA coating glass glass Bird s Nest Stadium, Beijing PRC ~ 500 million m2 coated glass p.a.

Line length: 200-250m Vacuum pressure: 10-6 mbar Output / min: 1,3 glasses

16 Low-e Coatings Double Ag Layer Leading Edge Values Technology PVD Sputtering Glass Size: 3,21m x 6,0m Layer Uniformity: < 2% Manuf. Line length: m Vacuum pressure: 10-6 mbar Output / min: 1,3 glasses Output / year: 10km 2 (size of 1400 soccer fields) Ref.: Applied Materials, glass division,

17 Relative Coating Costs / m2 Glass Coating Price Experience Curve 1000% % PEF 17% 10% 1,E+01 1,E+02 1,E+03 1,E+04 Cumulated Coated Glass [Mio m2] Source: Applied Materials, Energy and Environmental Solutions,

Line length: 200m - 250m Output / year: 10km2 (size of 1400 soccer fields)

18 Glass Coating Equipment Technology PVD Sputtering Glass Size: 3,21m x 6,0m Layer Uniformity: < 2% for layers in the 5-20nm range Manuf. Line length: 200m - 250m Output / year: 10km2 (size of 1400 soccer fields) corresponding to 2GW (at 20% efficiency) Source: Applied Materials, Energy and Environmental Solutions,

19 Relative Coating Costs / m2 System Capacity ( Million m2 p.a.) Glass Coating Price Experience Curve Driven by Technology 1000% 10, % PEF 17% 1,0 DC Rotatable Magnetron Fast Cycle Time, High Volume AC Rotatable Magnetron 10% 1,E+01 1,E+02 1,E+03 1,E+04 Cumulated Coated Glass [Mio m2] 0,1 Planar Magnetron Years Source: Applied Materials, Energy and Environmental Solutions,

20 Display: TFT-LCD Panel Technology Liquid Crystal PECVD Color Filter PVD 20

21 Relative Costs [%] Display Experience Curve Experience Curve 100% % PEF 35% 1% Cumulated Display Area [million m2] Source: Applied Materials, Display Group,

22 Substrate Size Expansion in LCD Gen meters Gen Gen Gen Gen Gen Gen 4 Gen 5 6 Gen 7 Gen 2 Gen 4 Gen 3.5 Gen 3 Gen 2.5 Gen 5 Gen 6 Gen 8 = 5.7 square meters 2.2 meters 370 x 470mm 4 up up up 6 up 19 ~ ~ 17 6 up x 37 wide 6 up x 52 wide 22

23 TFT-LCD Panel Technology TFT PECVD Source: Applied Materials, Display Group, 2009 Color Filter PVD 23

24 Relative Costs [%] Display Substrate Area [m2] 2.2 meters Display Experience Curve Driven by Technology 100% ,0 TV announced 10,0 Desktop 10% PEF 35% Laptop 1,0 Gen meters Gen 6 Gen 8 = 5.7 square meters Gen 5 Gen 4 Gen 3.5 Gen 3 Gen 2.5 Gen 2 Gen 2.5 Gen 3 Gen 3.5 Gen 4 Gen 5 Gen 6 Gen 7 1% Cumulated Display Area [million m2] 0,1 370 x 470mm 2.6 meters 6 up 6 up x 37 wide 19 ~ 24 6 up x 52 wide 6 up 4 up 6 up 15 ~ Jan Jan Jan Jan-05 Jan Jan Years Source: Applied Materials, Display Group,

Structure (TFT) (Single Structure Junction) SiNx Gen 8.

25 From Display to Solar a-si n+ a-si Al a-si TCO Glass Glass SiNx Thin Thin Film Film Solar Transistor Structure (TFT) (Single Structure Junction) SiNx Gen 8.5 AKT-55K PECVD System Applied SunFab Gen 8.5 PECVD System 25

26 TF: New Module Size 5.7m2 SunFab 26

27 PV 27

ASP in $/W Photovoltaic Price Experience Curve Driven by Technology 100 10 1980 1990 2000 2005 2008 Thin Film PEF 20% Wafer thickness 0,7mm 0,15mm Kerf loss 0,5mm

28 ASP in $/W Photovoltaic Price Experience Curve Driven by Technology Thin Film PEF 20% Wafer thickness 0,7mm 0,15mm Kerf loss 0,5mm 0,10mm Efficiency 8% 22% Automation Industrial manufacturing source: NAVIGANT 1 1,E+00 1,E+01 1,E+02 1,E+03 1,E+04 1,E+05 MW accumulated Economy of scale 0,1MW 200MW 28

29 1. PEC for c-si will continue 2. Reason for different PEC and PEF for Thin Film PV 3. Different growth rates for global PV installations as parameter 4. Different fraction of TF/c-Si as parameter PEC = Price Experience Curve PEF = Price Experience Factor 29

30 PV Value Chains 30

Worldwide annual PV installations in GWp PV Future Eight Cases Evaluation Cases Volume Scenarios Volume Growth Baseline Paradigm Shift 200 PV Volume Scenarios Source: EPIA, Set

31 Worldwide annual PV installations in GWp PV Future Eight Cases Evaluation Cases Volume Scenarios Volume Growth Baseline Paradigm Shift 200 PV Volume Scenarios Source: EPIA, Set for 2020 TF Share 15% 15% 35% 15% 15% 35% 150 Baseline Paradigm Shift 100 TF PEF 20% 25% 20% 25% 20% 25% 20% 25% 50 Case Years 31

32 ASP in in $/W Photovoltaic Future Price Development PEC Scenario 10,0 Case A: Baseline TF share 15% const TF PEF 20% Case B:Paradigm Shift TF share 15% 35% TF PEF 25% 1,0 Case A B csi 20% c-si Technology price expectation in 2020 ca $ct/w Case A TF 20% Case B TF 25% 0,1 1,E+03 1,E+04 1,E+05 1,E+06 MW accumulated Thin Film Technology price expectation in 2020 ca $ct/w

33 Price contribution in /W BOS Complete Systems Consideration Price Contribution Module Price vs. Efficiency Price(total) 3.0 3,5 Price Contributors Installed Watt Price(power) 0.5 DC-AC inverters & approval procedures + Price(area) 0.7 mounting structure, cab-ling and installation costs 3,0 2,5 2,0 1,5 1,0 P(tot): total price for installed module Typical module efficiency of 14% P(module): resulting price for module 0.2-0,3 /W P(area): area related contribution + Price(module) 1.8 module price ex-works & a margin for the 14% Efficiency 0,5 0,0 P(power): power related contribution 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Module Efficiency TF csi 33

34 Thin Film Technologies have: a) low cost (price) per m² (BIPV) at lower eta (4-6%) - deposition area: 0,6 1, m² ( 1/2 the jumbo size) - utilize technology development in TFT technology (e.g. ASI) - creation of semitransparency by thin-layers - flexible solar cells ( web coaters) b) low cost (price) per Wp - ASI/µc-Si and II VI compound (CIS, CTS) - efficiency from 8 12 % today up to % in 2010 and % in

35 Building Integrated Photovoltaic (BIPV) Project: Location: Function: SCHOTT Solar Alzenau Façade of Production building 35

Thin Film PV Value Chain Same/similar process steps with same/similar cost / m²

7m 2 ) PVD TCO Laser Patterning Absorber Laser Patterning PVD Back Contact Laser

.. 10 7... 12) CIGS co-evaporation (10... 12 13...15) Sputtering and selenization (9.

36 Thin Film PV Value Chain Same/similar process steps with same/similar cost / m² Large glass (or flexible) Substrate ( m 2 ) PVD TCO Laser Patterning Absorber Laser Patterning PVD Back Contact Laser Patterning Module Finish Installation Thin Film Silicon PECVD a-si and µc-si ( ) CIGS co-evaporation ( ) Sputtering and selenization ( ) CdTe/CdS close space sublimation ( ) Different processes and material cost for absorber formation 36

Relative External Quantum Efficiency, % Number of Sunlight Photons (m -2 s -1 micron -1 )

Silicon Back Contact a-si:h/ c-si:h Cell Spectral Response 5 a-si:h junction c-si:h

37 Relative External Quantum Efficiency, % Number of Sunlight Photons (m -2 s -1 micron -1 ) E+19 Thin Film Tandem Junction Harvest the Solar Spectrum Glass Substrate TCO Amorphous Silicon Back Contact a-si:h/ c-si:h Cell Spectral Response 5 a-si:h junction c-si:h junction AM 1.5 global spectrum Wavelength, microns Glass Substrate Transparent Conductor Amorphous Silicon Microcrystalline Silicon Back Contact Tandem Junction Increases Voltage Collects More Light Enhances Stability 37

Layer Deposition Thin Film Tandem Cell: a-si /

Transparent Conductor p 250-500nm (Batch System)

38 Layer Deposition Thin Film Tandem Cell: a-si / µc-si PVD PECVD (Inline System) 1 m Glass Substrate Transparent Conductor p nm (Batch System) Amorphous Silicon n p Doped layer: typically 20-30nm 1-2 m ATON, Applied Materials Microcrystalline Silicon n n+ 300nm Back Contact Applied SunFab PECVD system 38

39 Flexible Solar Expanding Applications SonnenEnergieWinnen Flexcell Uni-Solar Maier Sports Flexcell PowerFilm Flickr Photo Saaku ISS Lightweight Conformable Building Integrated PV Non-Rigid Applications 39

40 Excellent Market Opportunity Annual lightweight rooftop opportunity ~4 GWp Worldwide for PV < 10 kg / m 2 Excellent Fit for Flat Industrial Rooftops Uni-Solarr Annual new & replacement roofs in western Europe represents a surface area >2 GWp equivalent PV. Meets EU Feed-In-Tariff Requirements Building Integrated Photovoltaics (BIPV) Compliments Existing Technologies Scale: Multi-million m 2 /year of coated film Flexcell 40

41 Addressing Flex PV Technologies Flex PV Unique equipment solutions required Thin Film Silicon TRANSPARENT CONDUCTOR ABSORBER LAYER Back Contact CIGS TCO BACK CONTACT FLEXIBLE SUBSTRATE CdTe Common equipment solutions drive costs down for all players

42 Traditional Thin Film Technologies: a-si, a-si/µc-si, CTS, CI(G)S Large area deposition technologies for all layers (PVD, CVD) High deposition rate technologies with high performance layers Innovative cell architectures for higher efficiencies 42

43 Photo c-si value chain Si purification Poly Silicon Ingots Wafering Saw Damage Emitter Formation Cell Production / Manufacture Laminate Module Installation Passivation Metallization Edge Isolation Inspect / Test Relevant steps for vacuum deposited thin films: # ARC/passivation: from AP-CVD TiO2 to PE-CVD or PVD SiNx # metallization: from evaporated Ti-Pd-Ag to screen printing of Al- (back) and Ag- (front) paste towards future Al - evaporation 43

c-si Technology Existing films, eg SiNx, with high throughput and accuracy Todays metalization with screen printed Ag- paste to be exchanged with evaporated Al- films, which have significantly lower

44 c-si Technology Existing films, eg SiNx, with high throughput and accuracy Todays metalization with screen printed Ag- paste to be exchanged with evaporated Al- films, which have significantly lower material cost After medium term introduction of decreasing thickness of wire cut wafers (from µm today to less than 100 um) there will ultimately be 10 µm crystalline Si films by high rate deposition from TCS if done properly efficiencies above 20% may be reached. Additionally the two worlds of stable and high efficiency c-si and the integrated series connection of traditional Thin Film may be combined In the long term nanotechnology may help to have band gap tayloring allowing principally multibandgap Si cells with the potential for efficiencies beyond 30% 44

45 Silicon Thickness [µm] Long-term PV Roadmap Development of Si-Thickness for various technologies µm WT, 400µm KL 180µm WT (Wafer Thickness) 140µm KL (Kerf Loss) Efficiency Development µm WT, 100µm KL c-si wafer 20% 25% 30%+ 50µm wafer curfless cut and ribbons ,5µm a-si / µcsi (Tandem Jct.) 300nm a-si (Single Jct.) Integrated Thin Film and c-si approach 15% 20% 25% 0,1 Multi jct &very thin Intrinsic layers 10% 15% 20% 0, Long Term 2040 Ref: W. Hoffmann personal estimates,

46 Intensität [a.u.] Enhance the Absorption Si/SiO2-Super Lattice for Band Gap Shifting 70nm 3.0 5nm Si, 1100 C 2.5 4nm Si, 1100 C 3nm Si, 1100 C 2nm Si, 1100 C 2.0 Oxide thickness: 3nm, 10 periods SiO 2 Si Si-Substrate As deposited (amorphous Si-layers) Source: Energie Energy [ev] [ev] 46

47 Power Leistungsdichte density [W/m 2 [W/m µm] 2 µm] Multi Junction Solar Cells Combine Materials with Different Absorbance Behaviour Wellenlänge [nm] Wave length [nm] AM15 GaInP GaInAs Ge Quelle: 47 47

48 Photovoltaic Optoelectronics Recent world record of 41% at 500x concentration Source Ga 0.65 In 0.35 P Tunnel diode Ga 0.83 In 0.17 As Tunnel diode Ge ARC n + -AlInP - window layer n-gainp - emitter GaInP - undoped layer p-gainp - base p + -GaInP - barrier layer p + -AlGaInP - barrier layer p ++ -AlGaAs n ++ -GaAs or GaInP n + -AlGaInP/AlInAs - barrier layer n-gainas - emitter GaInAs - undoped layer p-gainas - base p + -GaInAs - barrier layer p + -AlGaInAs - barrier layer p ++ -AlGaAs n ++ -GaInAs n-graded Ga 1-x In x As buffer layer p-ge substrate (100) front contact cap layer 1.7 ev 1.3 ev n- doped window- and nucleation layer n-ge diffused emitter 0.7 ev rear contact 48 48

49 Concentrated PV Combine Mutli-Level Junctions with Optical Magnification Source: Sungri Challenges High efficiency solar cell Optical system with tracking systems Cooling the solar cell IBM: Concentration x2000, liquid metal cooling system with thin layer of Ga and In 49

50 Performance of a Concentrix System 5,8 kw Nominal Power For comparison: typical curve for flat panel Data: July 27th 2008, Seville Spain 50

51 High Optical Concentration Photovoltaic Lorca, Spain Source: Concentrix Solar 51

52 Module price (rel. Units) Technology Evolution r ribbon mg metallurgical grade Silicon TF c-si mc r/mg Cz Si III -V today mc multicrystalline Cz Czochralski a-si-pin/pin, II-VI + (4 to 5) years * CPV concentrated PV OPV organic PV 50 mc r/mg Cz + (10 to 13) years * 25 a-si/µc-si, dye a-si-pin II-VI Beyond 20 - (8 to 10) % price decrease per year ref: W. Hoffmann personal estimates 0 OPV Module Efficiency [%]

53 Share of PV Technologies 100% 80% 60% 40% New Technologies TF csi 20% 0% Ref: W. Hoffmann personal estimates,

54 Annual PV Growth Rate Cumulated Cummulated PV Power PV Power [GW] [GW] Yearly Yeary Installed installed PV PV Power [GW] RES-thinking 2050 Worldwide PV Growth Scenario till 2050 PV Growth Rate PV Volume Growth 50% CAGR : 45% % % % % % Ref: EREC and EPIA 2010 Source: EREC RES-Thinking, 03/2010

in TWh / a RES-thinking 2050 World PV Growth Scenario till 2050 PV Growth Assumption for 2050 100000 10000 1000 100 10 Total electricity production 10%

55 in TWh / a RES-thinking 2050 World PV Growth Scenario till 2050 PV Growth Assumption for Total electricity production 10% of total 1% of total PV electricity production EU % target for RES of final energy All RES sources to contribute 43% electricity share assumed (vs. 37% in [r]evolution scenario) World (OECD) 80% target for RES of final energy 43% electricity share assumed, too PV covers about 1/4 of electricity and about 1/6 of final energy demand Total PV energy supply in 2050: 11k TWh/a Ref: EREC 2010 and W. Hoffmann personal estimates

less energy 600.000 TWh Authors estimate (2010) 2100 100.000 TWh Schmid & Sterner (2010) 2000 120.

56 Primary Energy Need in 2100 Extrapolation with today's technologies and energy sources 2100 Assuming energy saving, Shift to electricity and consequent use of renewables Same quality of life with much less energy TWh Authors estimate (2010) TWh Schmid & Sterner (2010) TWh TWh TWh TWh ref.: World Energy Council & W. Hoffmann personal estimates 56

57 IEA PV Roadmap Vision ETP 2010 Hi-RE Scenario PV cumulative installed capacity to reach 900 GW in 2030 and 3000 GW in 2050

58 Projection for Future RE Portfolio for a 100% Global End Energy Coverage RES share in % 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Non RES Other RES Bio Mass Wind STC Solar Thermie PV 0% Towards 2050 Towards 2100 ref.: W. Hoffmann, own estimates 09/2010

Source: Solar Millennium AG, Erlangen The World Wide Super Grid 2 5 1 5 5 3 3 3 4 Electricity wind off-/ on shore Solar Thermal Power Plant PV Solar Electricity Other Renewables 1 2 3 4 5 Super Grid

59 Source: Solar Millennium AG, Erlangen The World Wide Super Grid Electricity wind off-/ on shore Solar Thermal Power Plant PV Solar Electricity Other Renewables Super Grid EUMENA Super Grid NAFTA Super Grid ASIA Super Grid AUSTRALIA Super Grid WORLD WIDE Biofuel/Hydrogen for Transportation Solar Thermal for heating and cooling Source: : W. Hoffmann Dr. Winfried Hoffmann SVC

60 25th European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference and Exhibition 5th World Conference on Photovoltaic Energy Conversion The most inspiring Platform for the global PV Solar Sector Conference: 6-10 September 2010 Exhibition: 6-9 September 2010 Feria Valencia, Valencia, Spain 25th European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference and Exhibition 36th US IEEE Photovoltaic Specialists Conference 20th Asia/Pacific PV Science and Engineering Conference Munich, 28/10/ TITLE OF THE PRESENTATION 60

61 Applied Solar Expertise Thank you very much! Dr. Winfried Hoffmann ASE Vice President EPIA Consultant Applied Materials Solar Member of Scientific Board of FhG-ISE and Supervisory Board of ISFH and Helmhol

A technology Roadmap for PV manufacturing

A technology Roadmap for PV manufacturing Dr. Winfried Hoffmann, Applied Materials, Vice President and CTO Energy and Environmental Solutions President European Photovoltaic Industry Association (EPIA)