Self-Consumption of Solar Power Experiences from Germany

Transcription

1 Self-Consumption of Solar Power Experiences from Germany APESF Seminar Lisbon May 9 th 2013 Rainer Brohm, Director Policy and International Affairs German Solar Industry Association (BSW-Solar)

2 The German Solar Industry Association 2 TASK To represent the German solar industry in the solar thermal and photovoltaic sector VISION A global sustainable energy supply provided by solar (renewable) energy ACTIVITIES Lobbying, political advice, public relations, market observation, standardization EXPERIENCE Active in the solar energy sector for over 30 years MEMBERS More than 850 solar producers, suppliers, wholesalers, installers and other companies active in the solar business HEADQUARTERS Berlin 24/01/2013

3 Agenda 3 1. PV self-consumption in Germany 2. New business cases for PV

4 4 PV self-consumption current status and potential 24/01/2013

5 Potential for direct on-site consumption in Germany: >43 TWh (2012: 2-3 TWh) 5 On-site consumption potential highly dependent on the relationship between electricity generation, consumption, and load profile Demand-side-management and storage can improve direct consumption ratio

6 Increasing self-consumption Prognosis TSO for German government Direct consumption of PV in GWh and share of PV generation PV-Eigenverbrauch in GWh PV-Eigenverbrauch EV-Anteil an PV-Stromproduktion 14,00% 12,00% 10,00% 8,00% 6,00% 4,00% 2,00% Anteil PV-Eigenverbrauch an PV-Stromproduktion ,00% Quelle: ÜNB Trend-Szenario, Stand 10/2012

7 7 Development of the regulatory framework 24/01/2013

8 Renewable Energy Act (EEG) 2009 FIT for self-consumption FIT for self consumed solar electricity (system size <30 kw) For the PV generation that is self consumed a reduced FIT of 25,01 ct/kwh is granted (normal FIT: 43,01 ct/kwh) Self-consumption substitutes the purchase of electricity from the utility (in 2009 around 20 ct/kwh): benefit for system owner around 2 ct/kwh (25, ct/kwh) in comparison to complete feeding in. Benefit increasing with further rising electricity tariffs (2013: ct/kwh)

9 Renewable Energy Act 2009 (EEG) FIT for self-consumption Basic regulation ( 33 Abs. 2 EEG 2009) Only real time on-site consumption. Additional meter needed. Question of tax treetment was relevant for rentability of direct consumption at least in the first years (VAT on self consumed electricity). Effects on market development New systems / technology developed Smart Home systems developed Stimulus for demand-side-management Stimulus for storage development DSOs learnt to deal with direct consumption All measures aiming at increasing the self-consumption ratio and stimulating investments in DSM measures or storage

10 Renewable Energy Act (EEG) 2009 FIT for self-consumption ct/kwh Entwicklung Vergütung für selbstgenutzten Strom (jeweils für Neuanlagen < 30 kwp) 2 ct/kwh ~ 8 ct/kwh Estimate 2009: With a moderat increase of electricity consumer tariffs of 3% p.a. the benefit of selfconsumption will increase to 8ct/kWh by 2012 Haushaltsstrompreis 3% Eigenverbrauchvergütung Bonus ggü. Einsp. Einspeisevergütung Vergüt.+Stromtarif

11 EEG 2012 FIT for self-consumption is dropped March 2012: No more FIT for self-consumption (for new installations) and raising political debate Since system prices have fallen steadily and consumer electricity tariffs have further risen new PV systems do not get any bonus/fit for self-consumption any more. Open question: Tax treatment of direct consumption (VAT)? Raising concerns within government that increasing selfconsumption will become a problem for financing energy transition (EEG surcharge is raising, when less consumers participate in the finance mechanism) and necessary grid investments (grid surcharge). Ongoin debate: EEG surcharge on self-consumption?

12 12 PV beyond FITself-consumption as a market driver for PV 24/01/2013

13 New PV business models and markets Small PV systems a. More self-consumption (decentralized nature of PV) b. Allow direct marketing of solar power ( local direct consumption ) 2. Larger systems a. Local self-consumption and direct marketing (Idea: Provide solar power directly to consumers in the distribution grid) b. Capacity markets / system functions (voltage control, etc) c. Combined Power Plants (Linking PV, wind and biogas systems in combination with storage to include more fluctuating renewables into the energy supply system) d. Wholesale market? Not in an energy-only market design! 3. Small / larger systems in rural areas / off-grid a. Today PV can replace diesel generation capacity at competitive prices 03/10/2012 BSW-Solar

14 Self-consumption ratio and wholesale electricity price: crucial for time of reaching competitiveness! Quelle: Roland Berger Annahmen Basisfall: Leistung: 5 kwp, Spez. Energieertrag: 1000 kwh/kwp/a, Systempreis 2012: 1600 /kwp, 25 a Lebensdauer Gesamtkapitalverzinsung 4,4 % (20 EK, 80 FK/ 6% EK-Redite, 4% FK-Rendite) Jährl. Betriebskosten: 1,5% der Investitionskosten Jährl. Leistungsminderung: 0,5% 14

15 PV-Roadmap 2.0 Development of wholesale electricity price is main risk for PV business models in post FIT aera (in today EOM) Wholesale electricity peak price and possiblemarketpriceforpv Expected increase of wholesale prices due to increasing CO2-prices between 2020 und 2030 (future of ETS?) Enhanced PV growth will increase merit-order-effect at stock market and further push down wholesale prices in peak hours. Need for reform of energy market! 15

16 PV-Roadmap 2.0 Return on Investment MFH/SFH (residential) Falling electricity wholesale prices decrease PV system rentability Securing stable wholesale prices for not self consumed PV energy is crucial! 16

17 17 PV Storage driver for increasing self-consumption 24/01/2013

18 PV storage systems as driver for investments and reaching competitiveness for PV systems 18 Investor perspective: High self-consumption ratio increases profitability of PV systems and reduces electricity bills of prosumers -> Incentive for future investments From Roland Berger, PV-Roadmap 2.0: Self-consumption ratio crucial for time of reaching competitiveness of PV systems (residential 5 kwp)

19 Small-scale PV storage systems can relieve the grid and help PV integration 19

20 Support program for battery storage systems to take effect on 1 May Status: Content-related requirements and technical prerequisites: - PV system cap of 30 kwp - Effective power reduction to 60% - Fair value replacement guarantee - Disclosure of various interface points Total volume of the program reduced to 25m due to delayed launch and budgetary shortfalls (EKF!) Increase to 50m as of 2014 planned. Average funding ration: 30% of storage costs, up to 600 Euro/kWp PV installed (newly installed systems) / 660 Euro/kWp PV installed (retrofit). Example: 5 kwp system: app Euro funding KfW loan can also be applied for to the amount of redemption subsidies alone. Loan can only be approved if the order has not yet been placed with supplier/installer.

21 Conclusion 21 Self-consumption will be a main driver for PV rentability and competitiveness in post FIT/support systems. Measures to increase and stimulate self-consumption are necessary and help on this way (smart home systems, DMS, storage). As long as investments in PV systems do not pay off without FIT/support measures self-consumption should not be hampered by taxes, surcharges and levies but rather stimulated. A fair and adequate participation of self-consumption PV systems in financing energy transition and especially grid modernisation has to be developed and discussed (grid connection fee instead of grid usage fees per kwh). PV systems that operate in a grid beneficial manner (peak shaving etc.) should be priced lower. Self-consumption and PV storage systems can have beneficial effects on distribution grids and at the same time enhance profitability of system operation and investments. 03/10/2012 BSW-Solar

22 Thank you for your attention 22 Rainer Brohm Director Policy and International Affairs German Solar Industry Association 24/01/2013 Source: Solarmarkt