ROLE OF NEPIO IN DEVELOPING A NATIONAL ROADMAP

Transcription

1 ROLE OF NEPIO IN DEVELOPING A NATIONAL ROADMAP IAEA Technical Meeting on Topical Issues in the Development of Nuclear Power Infrastructure 2 5 February 2016; IAEA Vienna, Austria

2 OVERVIEW NUCLEAR ROADMAP FOR PENINSULAR MALAYSIA, POST-FUKUSHIMA CONCLUDING REMARKS 2

3 NUCLEAR POWER DEVELOPMENT IN MALAYSIA Malaysia already had a preliminary nuclear roadmap when MNPC was formed as NEPIO in Jan An international Consultant was engaged to prepare a realistic step-bystep nuclear roadmap, among others. As some must do early activities are now behind schedule, a new revised nuclear timeline or roadmap is needed. Pertinent issues will be highlighted as MNPC prepares a new REVISED nuclear timeline or roadmap on our own contract with Consultant ended 31 Dec At this moment, NO decision is made regarding the first nuclear power plant project in Malaysia although some pre-project activities had already been completed, as at 31 December Whilst Malaysia actively explores various sources of energy for electricity generation, the need to strike the right balance in finding an optimal energy mix for the country and having a power source that is safe is well-recognized. Striking the right balance and finding an ideal energy mix is challenging and therefore due consideration is given when deciding which energy mix to adopt. Owing to its wide-ranging impact on the environment and communities, adoption of nuclear energy needs maximum informed consent and public consensus is required to make an informed decision. 3

4 INTENDED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION OF MALAYSIA Under the COP21 Intended Natonally Determined Contribution (INDC), the Government of Malaysia communicated its intention to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions per unit of GDP by 45% by 2030, from 2005 levels. This consists of 35% on an unconditional basis and a further 10% is condition upon receipt of climate finance, technology transfer and capacity building from developed countries. Emissions intensity of GDP (constant price 2005) was tonne CO2 eq per thousand RM. Malaysia s total GHG emissions represented about 0.6% of global emissions in The emission intensity was 0.41 tco2eq/rm1000 for that year. This represents a reduction of about 23% from 2005 values. The total GHG emissions including removals by LULUCF sinks was about 0.05% of global emissions. Malaysia used the Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines, Good Practice Guidance, 2000 and Good Practice Guidance for Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF), 2003 for current reporting. The INDC was developed through participatory process via an inter-ministerial/agencies working group. Stakeholder consultations were conducted to obtain inputs on possible measures to reduce GHG emissions. The projected outcomes from the 11 th Malaysian Development Plan ( ) and relevant policies and plans including the New Economic Model, Government Transformation Programme and Economic Transformation Programme (2010) form the basis for the development of the INDC. Malaysia has NO intentions to use international market mechanism to achieve INDC target. 4

5 NUCLEAR ENERGY IN NATIONAL ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION Launching of the Economic Transformation Programme (ETP) as part of the New Economic Model (NEM), by the Prime Minister on 25 October 2010 incorporating an Entry Point Project (EPP) on nuclear power deployment under the National Key Economic Area (NKEA) for Oil, Gas & Energy (OGE) sector, with target of building twin-unit nuclear power plant with total capacity of 2 Gigawatts, with the first unit in operation by Nuclear power programme integrated with ETP in New Economic Model to be a high-income economy & avoid a middle-income trap while also helping to meet increasing electricity demand at competitive cost and need for sustainable development & commitment for carbon emission reduction 5

6 ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION PROGRAMME (ETP) A comprehensive effort to transform Malaysia into a high-income nation by 2020 EPP 11: Deploying Nuclear Energy for Power Generation RATIONALE Exploring option of deploying nuclear energy to meet future demand and to diversify energy mix for the Peninsular ACTION Study possibility of delivering a twin unit nuclear power plant with total capacity of 2000 MW post ENABLERS 4 critical path items/enablers must be addressed with highest priority to ensure prompt delivery.

7 Economic Transformation Programme (ETP), 2010 Chapter 6: Powering the Malaysian Economy with Oil, Gas and Energy EPP 11: Deploying Nuclear Energy for Power Generation Rationale: Malaysia is exploring the option of deploying nuclear energy in order to meet future demand and diversify the energy mix for Peninsular Malaysia. A Nuclear Power Development Steering Committee, headed by the Ministry of Energy, Green Technology and Water, was set up in June 2009 to plan and coordinate the preparatory efforts towards deploying nuclear energy for electricity generation. The committee has been tasked to conduct various studies towards preparing a Nuclear Power Infrastructure Development Plan (NPIDP), which is targetted to be ready by Prior to conducting these necessary studies, a nuclear power pre-feasibility study and initial site selection study has already been undertaken. Action: The Steering Committee is studying the possibility of delivering a twin-unit nuclear power plant with a total capacity of 2 gigawatts, with the first unit in operation by Enablers: In order to ensure prompt delivery, the project will be launched without delay and four critical path items must be addressed with highest priority. Firstly, there must be public acceptance of the project. Secondly, Malaysia must ratify the relevant international treaties. Thirdly, the Government must ensure that the correct regulatory framework is put in place. Finally, approvals for plant sites including from local populace must be obtained. 7

8 DETAILS OBJECTIVES 7 JAN 2011 PLAN, SPEARHEAD AND COORDINATE the implementation of nuclear energy development programme for Malaysia and to take the necessary action to realise the development of the first NPP in Malaysia; Establishment of Malaysia Nuclear Power Corporation (MNPC) as a new fully dedicated Nuclear Energy Programme Implementing Organisation (NEPIO) ENSURE IDENTIFY the development of nuclear infrastructure for the country is in line with International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) guidelines covering 19 key areas. the company or special purpose vehicle (SPV) to be the owner and/or operator of nuclear power plant. 8

9 ETP Annual Report

10 ETP TIMELINE or Roadmap ( ) As of end-2015, we were here, delay of ~5 years A preliminary Nuclear Roadmap already existed before MNPC was formed in January 2011 Source: Economic Transformation Programme (ETP) Roadmap 2010, page Post-Fukushima COD in 2021 is NO LONGER POSSIBLE 10 RAHSIA 10

11 ORIGINAL MILESTONES FOR NUCLEAR POWER DEVELOPMENT IN MALAYSIA MILESTONE 1: JUNE 2009 Ready to make a knowledgeable commitment to a nuclear power programme Cabinet decision for nuclear energy to be a fuel option post MILESTONE 2: 2013 Ready to invite bids for the first nuclear power plant MILESTONE 3 : 2021 Ready to commission and operate the first nuclear power plant (8-9 year gap between Milestones 2 and 3. UAE project has a 7.5 year gap between Contract Signing and Unit 1 COD) 11

12 NUCLEAR ROADMAP, PENINSULAR MALAYSIA POST-FUKUSHIMA 12

13 In view of 5-year delay,, so far, a REVISED Nuclear Roadmap is needed for nuclear power development in Peninsular Malaysia. IAEA step-by-step Milestones (template) are still relevant Situation today (post-fukushima) is MORE challenging compared to 5 years ago (end-2010) when original nuclear timeline was proposed in ETP 2010 report. Cost-competitiveness of nuclear electricity is now less promising - higher nuclear capital cost to incorporate extra safety designs and lower fossil fuel prices today. Public may be persuaded to accept or tolerate nuclear power after COP21 but it will not be easy. The public have witnessed live & repeated news of explosions and major damage to NPPs in Fukushima Dai-ichi station in 2011, as well as news waste water contamination and hardships endured by evacuated residents around Fukushima over last 4+ years. 13

14 We are here but NO project site selected 8-10 years Source: 2007 IAEA Nuclear Energy Series No. NG-G-3.1 on Milestones in the Development of a National Infrastructure for Nuclear Power 2008 IAEA Nuclear Energy Series No. NG-G-3.2 on Evaluation of the Status of National Nuclear Infrastructure Development 14

15 Interval between Milestone 2 and Milestone 3 Revised nuclear roadmap for Peninsular Malaysia is expected to have LONGER timeline to allow for Nuclear Bill, Nuclear Regulator and Owner-Operator to be formed and also Site Selection to be completed. If a decision to proceed with multi-vendor EPC bidding process is made in 2019/2020, what is a REALISTIC interval between contract signing (say 2021) and COD of Unit 1. Is 9-10 years realistic and sufficient to complete the first NPP project in a NEW country? Experiences of on-going (Gen 3/3+) NPP projects in countries already with operating NPPs show project delays e.g. Finland, France, China, South Korea, Russia and USA. The UK Hinkley Point C project is still awaiting EdF Final Investment Decision (as at January 2016). 15

16 Example of Project Delays EPR1600 COUNTRY ORIGINAL COD TARGET COD REASONS FOR DELAY FINLAND OLKILUOTO Dec 2018 Post Fukushima -New requirements from Regulator (STUK) -Reactor Instrumentation & Control (I&C) FLAMANVILLE Grid: 2018 COD: 2019 FRANCE - Delays in component delivery by AREVA - Problems in coordinating 9 subcontractors. CHINA TAISHAN & 2014 Early 2016 & End Key component delays and project management issues - Design issues UK HINKLEY POINT C 2023 N/A Financial delay (awaiting Final Investment Decision by EDF) Source: WNA Country Profiles (update 2015) 16

17 Example of Project Delays - APR1400 COUNTRY ORIGINAL COD TARGET COD REASONS FOR DELAY KOREA SHIN KORI-3 Early 2013 April 2016 (Cabling & Faulty Valve Parts) Shin-Kori #3 connected to grid (January 2016) SHIN KORI-4 Early 2015 February 2017 UAE BARAKAH 1-2 COD of Unit 1 in May 2017; One year later for Unit 2 COD On time (Delay of Reference Plant, Shin Kori-3 is NOT a factor during Construction) None reported so far (Reference Plant is still well ahead and already connected to grid) Source: WNA Country Profiles (update Jan 2016) 17

18 Example of Project Delays - AP1000 COUNTRY ORIGINAL COD TARGET COD REASONS FOR DELAY CHINA SANMEN / Design changes - Problem with US-supplied main coolant pumps HAIYANG Mid 2016/ Design changes & component problem USA SUMMER 2-3 N/A Mid 2019/ Early Design and fabrication issues VOGTLE 3-4 N/A Q2 2019/Q Design changes Source: WNA Country Profiles (update 2015) 18

19 Therefore, it is prudent to provide extra time in new roadmap, to allow, among others, for:- a. project financial close, b. project licensing and permitting to resolve regulatory & inspection issues e.g. time needed for owner & successful vendor to prepare PSAR and then Nuclear Regulator to review PSAR and issue construction license c. supply chain delivery and localisation d. vendor learning curve for first NPP project in a new country e. Others As of 31 Jan 2016, the revised Nuclear Roadmap for Peninsular Malaysia is still under discussion, as MNPC focuses on nuclearrelated activities under 11 MP 19

20 NUCLEAR ENERGY IN 11TH MALAYSIA PLAN 20

21 11 TH MALAYSIA PLAN: ENERGY FOCUS AREA STRATEGIES Source: Economic Planning Unit (EPU) Prime Minister s Dept, 11 th Malaysia Plan ( ) 21 21

22 CONCLUDING REMARKS 22

23 POLICY DIRECTIONS TOWARDS NUCLEAR POWER DEVELOPMENT ( ) 10 September Decision to draft National Nuclear Policy 28 August 2009 Budget in Parliament to explore nuclear energy & formulate new National Energy Policy 10 December Decision to establish NEPIO 25 October Economic Transformation Programme (ETP) launched with nuclear power deployment included 16 July Decision to adopt National Nuclear Policy 10 June New National Energy Policy incorporated in 10MP with nuclear energy as longer term option for the Peninsula After Fukushima (3/2011), NO nuclear-related decisions made 21 May *11MP covers; - establishment of the Atomic Energy Regulatory Commission, - Atomic Energy Regulatory Bill passed by the Parliament, - public engagement for acceptance of nuclear power plant development - implementation of NPIDP & NPRIDP, developed in 10MP 26 June Nuclear energy adopted as one of fuel options for electricity supply post-2020, especially for Peninsular Malaysia 7 January Incorporation of MNPC as NEPIO *11MP = 11 Malaysia Plan,

24 NUCLEAR ROADMAPS 2010, 2015, 2016? MNPC had a template Roadmap explicitly included in ETP report of Oct, 2010, when MNPC was established on 7 January MNPC-appointed Consultant also prepared a post-fukushima Roadmap in 2015, revising the original (2010) Roadmap. MNPC is now (2016) discussing on another revised Nuclear Roadmap with a tentative COD of 1 st NPP Unit in There are must-do activities if the new COD target can be achieved. In 11 MP period ( ), activities to be carried out include:- 1. Tabling the new comprehensive Nuclear Law, 2. Setting-up an independent Nuclear Regulatory Commission, 3. Capacity building and 4. Nuclear Communication for public buy-in. In the 3 Nuclear Roadmaps, IAEA multi-phase Milestones are relevant and consistent with MNPC corporate objective. 24

25 (tentative REVISED) TARGET MILESTONES FOR NUCLEAR POWER DEVELOPMENT IN MALAYSIA MILESTONE 1: JUNE 2009 Ready to make a knowledgeable commitment to a nuclear power programme Cabinet decision for nuclear energy to be a fuel option post MILESTONE 2: 2019/2020 (?) (Rescheduled from 2013) Ready to invite bids for the first nuclear power plant based on the timeline for EPP11 under OGE sector in the ETP. MILESTONE 3 : 2030 (?) (Rescheduled from 2021) Ready to commission and operate the first nuclear power plant based on the timeline for EPP11 under OGE sector in the ETP. OWING TO DELAY IN TABLING OF THE DRAFT NUCLEAR BILL & SITE EVALUATION, COD FOR UNIT 1 EXPECTED TO BE DELAYED TO 2030, as mentioned in Parliament 25

26 Mohd Zamzam Jaafar Chief Executive Officer Malaysia Nuclear Power Corporation Thank You 26